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Oswalt Recruiting Sheets


Mass Haas
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Overrating "clutchiness" is a very dangerous thing to do. It leads to giving average pitchers #2 pitcher money (Suppan). I'm sure many on this board will claim that Suppan is better than Sheets if Suppan wins more games in the playoffs. I bet this happens even if Sheets' playoff ERA is lower than Suppan's because, "He just doesn't know how to win the game."
I agree that it is dangerous to overrate "clutchiness," and your point about Suppan proves that. But to discount it completely, as some do, is foolish.

 

As for Suppan, I want to be on record as saying there is no way he should ever be rated as a better pitcher than Sheets, even if he gets more wins or performs better in the playoffs. With that being said, to want to get rid of him for next to nothing is ridiculous. He's a veteran innings eater and he is a better option than McClung at this point. I would also say he's even a better option than Villanueva going into the playoffs.

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You can't just say Suppan is a better option than McClung though. You would have to factor in salary. So next year is Suppan at $12.5 million better than McClung at $2 million and whatever we get with the extra $10 million? Hard to say, but my guess would be no.
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I dont see McClung as anymore than a long man and mop up type pitcher. His control is way too erratic to be counted on. I will be very disappointed if we see McClung in the rotation next season. We need to resign Sheets and have a rotation of Sheets, Gallardo, Parra, Bush, and Suppan if we cant trade him. If we can trade Suppan I would like to see Villy as the 5th starter. By keeping Sheets we will still have a rotation that is good enough to contend with.
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You can't just say Suppan is a better option than McClung though. You would have to factor in salary. So next year is Suppan at $12.5 million better than McClung at $2 million and whatever we get with the extra $10 million? Hard to say, but my guess would be no.
McClung's salary certainly makes him the better value, but you put players on the field based upon their ability to help the team and Suppan is the better pitcher of the two. The only way to get rid of Suppan at this point would be to take on a lot of his salary and get very little in trade. Also, if he ups his trade value by pitching like a #2 or #3, it would be difficult to justify trading away a veteran pitcher that's producing well, unless they are out of the playoff picture. Unless he completely implodes, the Brewers are better off keeping him until his contract expires, as he's not a bad #4 or #5 to have (salary withstanding).
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Five or six years ago, Sheets was walking around with a buddy of mine who was hosting an autograph signing. Even then Sheets expressed an interest in going to Houston to play.

 

IMHO, he's going to Houston. Book it.

This all depends on what Houston offers him. They have a ton of salary down there. How much more can they afford? If the difference is $3 or $4+ million per year to pitch somewhere else, I have to believe Sheets will take the somewhere else for the extra cash. His agent and the players union will not let him leave that kind of change on the table.
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The problem with Suppan is that as logn as he's witht eh Brewers he'll be starting even though like right now he's likely the 6th or 7th best starting option behind Villaneuva and about even with McClung. But as long as he's making more than any other player on the team he isn't going to be a long relief man.
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Brewer Fanatic Contributor
I wonder if a guy like Dempster would come cheaper? He's got very comparable numbers to Sheets this year but he's only got one year as a productive starter on his resume. He'll be 32 next year so he's not a spring chicken - I wonder if he would go for a three year $30M deal?
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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We gave Suppan the money because he does what Sheets couldn't. Take the ball every fifth day.

 

Sheets has made more starts than Suppan this season.

 

Sheets has made one more start so far this season, but that won't be the case when Suppan takes his turn in the rotation. Sheets has been great this season, but I can understand a club's reluctance to spend something like 20% of a team's payroll on a player that has missed so much significant time.

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To me, that's an affordable contract for a team with a $90MM payroll.
Unfortunately, I cannot cite this, but I believe I've read comments somewhere and have a gut feeling that this payroll level will not be maintained. Mark A. has said if the team wins the WS, they might break even. I don't see them going into next year with that business plan.
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I might be crazy but I don't think a rotation of Gallardo, Parra, Suppan, Bush, Villanueva/McClung is all that bad. I think it's better than most teams starting pitching. If we are in it at the dead line then maybe another move is made. I think that it wouldn't be unreasonable to have a down year after going for it this year.
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The problem with that is that Gallardo is coming off not throwing for a year, Parra off his first real season ever and Suppan is likely to regress even further. That's a lot to load on an offense to try t pick up. The problem with having a down year is that the window for position players is right now.
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To me, that's an affordable contract for a team with a $90MM payroll.
Unfortunately, I cannot cite this, but I believe I've read comments somewhere and have a gut feeling that this payroll level will not be maintained. Mark A. has said if the team wins the WS, they might break even. I don't see them going into next year with that business plan.

I think it's safe to assume that some ticket prices will go up next year, meaning the Brewers will have more revenue and can afford a higher payroll.

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The Brewers did not plan on ending the season with a string of 30+ sellouts. The chance they lose money this year is slim. And Attanasio has been earning huge amounts for an mlb team before this season.

I beleive they had their attendance budget up around the 2.8 - 2.9 Million before the season started, and it looks as if that is right where they are headed, so I'm not sure those sellouts are going to make much difference. They may need them just to get to plan. If they average 40,000 the rest of the way, which I wouldn't necessarily bet on (those weeknights in Sept may still prove tough to fill), they will barely top that.

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I beleive they had their attendance budget up around the 2.8 - 2.9 Million before the season started, and it looks as if that is right where they are headed, so I'm not sure those sellouts are going to make much difference.

 

Actually, I think they're on pace to sell their 3,000,000th ticket virtually any day now. I think 3.1 million is a very likely number, so their attendance is almost certainly going to be higher than they expected. If they make the playoffs, revenues should be way ahead of budget.

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One thing that I find interesting is the sudden 'McClung is a better option than Suppan' thought. This board more or less hated the guy last year and thought he was garbage. I defended him last year and there weren't many on the McClung side. Now he has a few nice starts and he's better than Suppan? I don't know if I'd go that far, but I'm sure some stats from this year will be posted proving me wrong. I like McClung and he's a good guy, but his best role is probably a long guy out of the pen and not a starter. If McClung loses even more weight this off-season, I think he'd have the stamina to pitch and maybe the Suppan and McClung comparison can be made. I know it's cheap McClung vs. expensive Suppan, but it's not my money and the Suppan signing can't be reversed. I want the best guys on the team and IMO Suppan is a better option than McClung.
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I was just curious as to how anyone knows what the Brewers will lose or gain for revenue before the season ends? I also would think the added seats in the stands and success mean more concession sales along with merchandise. Not sure how this is figured but when I hear that he's going to lose money, I scratch my head.
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I was just curious as to how anyone knows what the Brewers will lose or gain for revenue before the season ends?

 

Not to mention that taking a baseball teams reported income/loss at face value is probably questionable. In addition, the income statement says nothing about the value of the franchise, which has increased greatly since being purchased by Mark A. It is sorta, but not really, like the owner of rental property that reports losses every year but makes it all back upon sale (well, it used to work that way maybe not so much with falling real estate prices lately).

 

That said 3 million attendance would still only mean under $100 million, even if each fan is worth $33 in revenue. Of course there are other sources of revenue, but there are also expenses besides player salaries.

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