Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

[fondybrewfan]

I am certainly not very high in Sheets right now. My personal opinion is that he is choking since we got CC but I am also not stupid and I realize he is a damn good pitcher that we need to pitch well. I just hope that this is just a temporary thing, I really hope it is. Has Ben really ever pitched a game where anything was really on the line? I mean heck before last year we haven't even been close to the playoffs since he has been here. It is just so damn frustrating that in the middle of a playoff race we see him cruise along than just get pasted in the later innings. Either his arm is fatiguing really quickly or he just loses it mentally.

[homer]

He's asking for Sheets numbers for each game vs the Cubs when Zambrano was their starter.

[trwi7]

As far as I can tell he is 1-4 vs Zambrano with 1 ND (the Brewers were one hit in one of those games) and 2-0 against Wood and Prior with 2 ND. This was pre-injury while they were still stud starters.

 

Edit: I'm not sure how those numbers prove Sheets isn't a "big game pitcher" or "not an ace" since three of those losses came when we were terrible and his win came in the middle of a pennant race at Wrigley last year.

[crewcrazy]

Call me crazy, but having a career K/BB ratio of about 4 qualifies as ace material. I can't get too upset about his recent starts because it's been like a replay of 2004 with the offense struggling to score. To say he can't win the big games seems a little weird to me, considering the Brewers have really only been playing "big games" the past two years.

 

I don't think most of the anti-Sheets crowd will realize what the Brewers have until he's gone...I feel there's going to be multiple times next season that we're going to be wishing we still had Sheets pitching every 5 days, and you can bet that the other teams in the division will be thrilled to see him leave (assuming he doesn't land in Houston). To me, that's a bigger part of "ace-yness" than avoiding winless streaks in the middle of the season.

[endaround]

yount19 wrote:Our definition of an ace is obviously different. The best I can do for you is to use the Supreme Court's definition of obscenity -- "I know it when I see it." I don't see it with Sheets. I just don't have the confidence in Sheets to pitch well throughout a complete season or consistently well in high pressure games. I wish I could rely on statistics to back this up 100%, but they don't have statistics that measure the emotional aspect or "feel" of the game. I would say he's in the top 30 pitchers in the league, but not the top 10. An ace would be a Sabathia, Peavy, Zambrano, Oswalt, Mussina or Halladay. Pitchers who have shown throughout their careers that they will not only put up solid numbers, but win the tough ones as well. Baseball Reference shows AJ Burnett (among other lesser pitchers) as one of the closest comparable pitchers to Sheets. They are both good pitchers and would likely be #1 starters on 10 different teams, but they are not the dominant pitchers like the ones listed above.

So did Oswalt lose his "feel" for the game this year? Did Mussina last year? The fact that Sheets' FIP is a full run below Zambrano's not count because Zambrano shows how he "feels" by throwing the occasional temper tantrum?

 

Sheets' FIP this season: 3.19

Sabathia's FIP this season: 3.07

[yount19.u]

So did Oswalt lose his "feel" for the game this year? Did Mussina last year? The fact that Sheets' FIP is a full run below Zambrano's not count because Zambrano shows how he "feels" by throwing the occasional temper tantrum?

 

Sheets' FIP this season: 3.19

Sabathia's FIP this season: 3.07

I am not talking about one season for any of these pitchers. I'm talking about a career of work that earns them the title of ace. I am also not talking about the "feel" said pitcher has. I'm talking about the confidence we as fans feel for these players in given situations. As for FIP (I had to look it up as I never saw it before) it still doesn't explain when a pitcher was dominating, when he blew a lead or when he gave up a key home run. These are observation based and not statistically based. A pitcher giving up 3 runs in 7 innings isn't bad, but was that a 3-2 game or a 9-3 game?

 

One more point I wanted to make and then I will drop this as it's clear we all have our own strong opinions on this. ESPN News posted a list of the pitchers with the most wins since 2005 and they are Webb (66), Beckett (62), Santana (61), Oswalt (60), Sabathia (60), and Zambrano (60). Sheets has 39. I know wins are not an entirely accurate way to establish a pitchers value, but they are very important. There are years where a pitcher will run into bad luck with no run support or poor defense, but there are also years where they get some good luck, as in baseball, things tend to even out. No one can try and tell me any of these pitchers just had good luck to get them these victories, and no one can say any of these pitchers has not proved himself to be one of the top pitchers in the league during his career. They are all ace pitchers and ace pitchers win. Ben Sheets does not win enough to be an ace and, therefore, does not belong in the same category. True, some of it has been poor run support, but the pitchers listed above have also had stretches of bad luck as well. It's also been injuries, but I consider durability to be a factor in who is an ace pitcher, not just who has great "stuff" (which Sheets certainly does). Sheets barely has a winning record in his career and much of that, I believe, rests on Sheets.

[SeriesFinale]

One side is giving me relevant quantifiable numbers, the other is talking about the win statistic and "luck" evening out

 

I'm pro-Sheets.

[logan82]

crewcrazy wrote:

I don't think most of the anti-Sheets crowd will realize what the Brewers have until he's gone

Please clarify what you mean by antiSheets. This thread was originally about wether we should bring him back next year. I say no for many reasons, but I also think we will miss him next year.

 

One side is giving me relevant quantifiable numbers, the other is talking about the win statistic and "luck" evening out

Not really true. A few people are talking about wins and losses. If I recall correctly, the BABIP comment was by somebody supporting Sheets. I think his poor recent BABIP could be because of his poor control since the end of June. Or is could just be bad luck.

[crewcrazy]

crewcrazy wrote:

I don't think most of the anti-Sheets crowd will realize what the Brewers have until he's gone

Please clarify what you mean by antiSheets. This thread was originally about wether we should bring him back next year. I say no for many reasons, but I also think we will miss him next year.

I wasn't specifically referring to anyone in this thread, just the vocal minority in the Brewer fanbase that has always thought that Sheets has been stealing money from the Brewers and isn't worth a big contract because he doesn't win games. I was talking more about the people who call into radio shows or leave comments on JSOnline (and quite a few members of my family http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif), not bf.net posters. Even though I think Sheets is a very very good pitcher that will be missed, I agree that it wouldn't be wise to re-sign him long-term for the money he'll demand.

[reillymcshane]

Since 2001, which sheets joined the crew, and now, the team has won 45% of it's games. Sheets has won 50.9% of his games. The teams has had two winning records (that includes this season). Sheets has won on a lot of bad teams. The team has rarely had lots of 'big' games for him to win (or lose).

 

Is sheets the greatest pitcher in the world? Hardly. His injuries over the past few years have been irksome. Some people say he's looked fat and out of shape. Perhaps his lack of intensity makes it looks like he doesn't care. Personally, I think a long term deal at $17-18 million is ill-advised. But the guy's a super pitcher. That he's had a stretch of average games is not happiness and lollipops. But it happens. Over the course of the full season, he'll likely be great.

[MNBrew]

brewcrew00 (earlier in the thread) and yount19.u (last couple pages), you two are bringing up fantastic, thoughtful points and arguments that are both highly valid and essential to these discussions. Multiple perspectives are important. Because we live in a largely "seeing is believing" culture, for better or for worse, we've become trained to believe for sure only those things for which statistical proof exists. I don't necessarily think that approach is always the best.

 

I agree with your points entirely. Stats tell a lot of the story and are an extremely useful tool. Certain things, however, just cannot be quantified no matter how much some on this great site object or otherwise refuse to believe something if it cannot be proven by numbers, measurement, and analysis. "Gut check" and "ace," clutch, emotion, and feel, among other terms, are perfectly legit. Please don't back down just because someone inevitably will tell you you've left the realm of the empirical and therefore such concepts can only be mythical.

 

No matter how you slice it, numbers themselves are objective while their interpretation can become extremely subjective. Stats describe the outcome. But they often cannot explain the human reasons for the outcome.

[TooLiveBrew]

The big problem for Mark A. & Co. is the contract they gave Suppan. That's a huge speed-bump in attempting to argue against signing Sheets.

 

Not saying that I've heard or expect to hear anything from the Brewers about this... but if Sheets isn't retained, the old, 'He was too expensive' line won't play at all.

[bklynbrewcrew]

TLB has it exactly right. If we were willing to give Suppan 10 mil per year over 4 years we have the money to pay Ben Sheets. The Brewers should only pay big money to big time players and Ben Sheets is a big time pitcher. Try replacing him on the free agent market and you will end up overpaying an average pitcher like Garland or Lowe who arent in Ben's class. That is how we are stuck with Suppan's bloated contract and is the last thing this team needs to do again. The most important thing to remember is to never overpay for mediocrity.

[MNBrew]

I'm not sure how they'd do it, but I'd love to see the Brewers find some way to trade Hall & Suppan in the offseason. While some financial obligation would come back in the exchange, that would sure help free up even more salary.

 

TLB & Brooklyn, you're right on. The fact is, the Brewers have the cash to pay Sheets. They also have the cash to pay Sabathia. The question is whether or not they'll choose to do so.

[brewmann04]

The big ? is they have the Cash to pay one which one do you go after,If they Go after CC and someone outbids us we might be too late to retain Sheets also.

[Thurston Fluff]

If we were willing to give Suppan 10 mil per year over 4 years we have the money to pay Ben Sheets.

 

We gave Suppan the money because he does what Sheets couldn't. Take the ball every fifth day. At the time of the signing it was way more important to have an average pitcher who could do that than an above average one that couldn't. The whole we gave Soup the money so we should be able to give Sheets more is off base IMO. Different circumstances, different needs at the time. Soup gave a very unstable rotation one guy they could rely on at a time when that was paramount. Sheets at 18-20 million give us what YoGa would at 400K.

[lukevan]

We gave Suppan the money because he does what Sheets couldn't. Take the ball every fifth day.

 

Sheets has made more starts than Suppan this season.

[rluzinski]

Yount, since you think everything averages out, why not list the run support Sheets has gotten from 2004 to the present? ESPN lhas it. Got it? Now look at Sheets' RA (not ERA) over that same period. Finally, put Sheets' win% next to that.

 

Repeat that for all the true aces you listed and let me know what you learn. I haven't done it myself, so if the results aren't what I suspect they will be, I'll happily eat crow. But if I'm right, we can all finally agree that fan perception doesn't always consider very important information and should not be trusted without first seeing if it agrees with reality.

 

I can't wait!

[JJHardy7]

The fact is, the Brewers have the cash to pay Sheets. They also have the cash to pay Sabathia. The question is whether or not they'll choose to do so.

 

How is this a fact? We don't even know the money or years Sheets or CC will get. Sheets could get $20 million a year and CC could come close to approaching $25 million a year. We may have the cash to let all expensive guys walk this year (Gagne, Cameron, Turnbow, Cappy, Counsell, etc), but that is a one year thing. We're talking about multi year deals and let's not forget those players leaving need to be replaced. I don't think there is any way the Brewers have the cash to sign both if they intend on extending the younger guys in the future (Gallardo, Parra, CV, Hardy, Hart, Fielder, and possibly Weeks).

[Fike85]

Since his low ERA point of the season, Sheets has made 10 starts and is struggling to the tune of a 4.10 ERA (105 ERA+), .738 OPS Against, 56 K, 17 BB, and 3 HR in 63.2 innings pitched. A slumping Sheets is still the second best pitcher on the Brewers.

[And That]

The fact is, the Brewers have the cash to pay Sheets. They also have the cash to pay Sabathia. The question is whether or not they'll choose to do so.

Unless you're Mark Attanasio or on the advisory board, you can't possibly claim this as fact.

 

I think it's very possible they'll have the money to pay one of the two at market value, but it may be the best thing for the long-term future of the franchise not to do so. Like I said, if Sheets would sign for 4 years at $15-18 million per and the Brewers could get a really great insurance policy on the contract, maybe you go for that. Much beyond that, or frankly anything that Sabathia will get, could hinder the financial flexibility of the team for the foreseeable future.

[Samurai Bucky]

Five or six years ago, Sheets was walking around with a buddy of mine who was hosting an autograph signing. Even then Sheets expressed an interest in going to Houston to play.

 

IMHO, he's going to Houston. Book it.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Sabathia is going to get upwards of 25 mil per year over 6 or 7 years. He is also most likely to go to the highest bidder since he has no ties to the Brewers organization. On the other hand Sheets is a career Brewer who by all accounts likes playing here. If we make him a priority and show him some love we may be able to land him for 4-5 years for 15 mil per season which I think is fair for both sides. Hopefully Suppan can pitch well down the stretch so we can trade him and hopefully some team sees some value in Hall as a shortstop. With all the other money coming off the books I defintely think Sheets fits in the budget and should be kept.

[statman0007]

Overrating "clutchiness" is a very dangerous thing to do. It leads to giving average pitchers #2 pitcher money (Suppan). I'm sure many on this board will claim that Suppan is better than Sheets if Suppan wins more games in the playoffs. I bet this happens even if Sheets' playoff ERA is lower than Suppan's because, "He just doesn't know how to win the game."

 

That said, I do think there is a human quality to the game. I've played enough competitive sports to know that when the game is on the line at the end, there are some players that thrive and some that have the deer with headlights in their eye look. I don't think that Sheets falls into the deer in headlights group. He hasn't pitched great recently, but I'm more worried about arm fatigue due to pitching more this year than he has in a long time rather than, "not stepping up".

[Bucky Rules]

MLBTR guesses 3-4 years, $16-17M per.

 

I want no part of that. None.

 

With his injuries, he is not likely to age well, to say the least.

If he'll sign for 3-4 years at $16-17MM per, I'd be all over that. Sign me up now. He'll be 33 or 34 at the end of that contract. And his injury history is mostly flukish stuff with almost no arm problems at all. By ace standards (which he is, and will likely remain for the life of a 3-4yr deal), that contract is very reasonable -- and only about 5-6MM more than we're committing to him right now. To me, that's an affordable contract for a team with a $90MM payroll. CC on the other hand could reach 6 yr / $150MM. There's no chance on that one.

 

Trade Suppan for a bag of doughnuts, and free up some more cash, if necessary.