Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

[endaround]

As an outside observer I have to ask then...If you don't want to bring back Sheets next year because you don't think he is a big game pitcher, then who are you going to bring in? Sabathia isn't coming back, so who are you going to spend the money on?

 

I hear Lowe, Garland, etc, but are they better "big game" pitchers? I am just curious what the rationale is. Again, I am an Astros fan, so I just curious. Personally, even if there truly wasn't a "big game" pitcher, someone still has to get you to the big game. You know, Brandon Backe has pitched phenomenal in the playoffs, but would you take him over a Sheets, Garland, Lowe? Of course not, that would be ridiculous. Someone still has to get you to the big game, if you know what I mean.

 

I think the main concern for the Brewers would be the inconsistency offensively. Last nights game would have been a lot different if ya'll wouldn't have been horrendous on the base paths. Hardy in the first getting thrown out with no outs trying to go to third, and Cameron trying to score with one out and being out by 20 ft. Maybe if Sheets had more than 2 runs every game it would be a different outcome.

 

I don't mean this as bashing the Brewers, I like ya'll a heckuva lot more than the Cubs and Cards. Just some constructive criticism.

I really have no clue who the dump Sheets crowd think theu can get that won't cost 2/3 as much at least and provide half the output. As to the offense, it doesn't help that Braun was being replaced by Kapler, who is still the 750 OPS guy he always has been and Counsell is again at 3B.

[StatPipes]

True, Braun is a lot scarier than Kapler, but Braun wasn't running the bases either. That first inning with Hardy's double, there would have been a runner at second and no outs, instead of the bases empty. The Cameron play I have no idea what was going on. Moehler was struggling last night, but the Brewers bailed him out a few times.

 

But to stay on topic, Sabathia is pretty much out of the question for next year, and if Sheets isn't back, what do the Brewers do? Parra, Gallardo back from Tommy John, Suppan? The Brewers are going to have to spend money to stay close to the top, so saying Sheets isn't that guy I just don't understand. Again, I would be glad to have him here in Houston.

[lukevan]

Gallardo tore his ACL, no Tommy John surgery. But to your point, I'm not sure what they do if Sheets and Sabathia leave. They'll probably try to trade someone like Hardy for a #2 pitcher. With Gallardo and Parra, that's not half bad, but not near as good as this year. The Brewers offense will need to improve OBP next season somehow.

[StatPipes]

Hardy isn't going to get you a #2, not alone anyway. Your right, ACL, slightly better situation than Tommy John...

[lukevan]

Hardy would be the centerpiece of the deal anyway and it would depend on the length and dollars of contract for said #2 pitcher.

[StatPipes]

And i guess it depends on who is considered a #2...Either way, he just better be a "big game" pitcher, haha

[endaround]

Capuano is the one coming of TJ again and likely won't be ready until July at the earliest (assuming the Brewers resign him). The big thing is for all the talk of Sheets' injuries, counting on Manny Parra who has had numerous injuries is even more scary since they are pitching related and he'll be coming off what (hopefully) is his first full season at any level.

[yount19.u]

The Ben Sheets bashers really have no leg to stand on in their argument. As for the argument that Sheets is not a "big game" pitcher I present the 2000 Olympic final where one Ben Sheets shut out Cuba for the gold medal. If pitching for the gold medal for your country isnt a big game I dont know what is.

Since the Olympics, I don't recall one "big game" that Sheets has won. What I mean is any late season game with importance or a game where he's been involved in a battle. There have been games that he's won and dominated in, but close games where he is battling with the other pitcher (i.e. Peavy in San Diego), and he or the Brewers have come out victorious, I do not recall. Games where maybe he's not getting the run support, but needs to stay focused in order to avoid giving up the lead or letting it get out of hand I do not recall. Three games this year fit the bill and he failed in all of them -- Dodgers, Padres and Astros last night. Even Sheets admitted to trying to make the perfect pitch in situations like these as he knows the game is close and he needs to be perfect to win. This shows that he does not have the mentality to succeed like a true #1 ace. If your pitching well and you have been getting hitters out, why change your approach to try and make that one perfect pitch? Just keep doing what your doing and focus on getting each individual batter out. If you start to loose some velocity or "stuff," focus on changing up speeds, location and keeping the ball down. I'm sure this is all known by Sheets, but he has been unable to execute in "big games." The Brewers would be wise to take the Sheets money and re-sign Yo and Parra or maybe go after a Lowe or Garland. Sheets has not proven himself to be worthy of the type of money he will command, and with the potential injury risk, it would be money wasted. His stats show he is not pitching that bad, but stats do not show the emotional part of the game. When emotions run high in tight games and games in the second half of the season, Sheets has been unsuccessful. No stat will show it, but observations over his major league career will. It's no different than observing that Turnbow could not handle the pressure of coming in with men on (especially on the road), or watching Bill Hall and Rickie Weeks consistently try to pull outside pitches. Watching a team and it's players for as many years as most of us have, you develope some kind of intuition or gut feeling on what to expect from them, good and bad. This feeling may not always be correct, but it is based on some truths from past observations.

[bklynbrewcrew]

If you admit that Sheets has dominated in some "big games" then you are defining him as a big game pitcher. Juts because he got outdueled by Jake Peavy doesnt mean that Ben is not an ace pitcher. Ben Sheets has been an excellent pitcher his entire career and has pitched very well in so called big games. If Sheets would receive some run support once in awhile we wouldnt be having this discussion in the first place. As far as replacing Ben with Lowe or Garland that idea makes no sense whatsoever. Both of those guys are average starters that will be paid more than 10 million per season. We already paid for mediocrity once with Suppan and doing so again with Garland or Lowe makes no sense. My theory on paying pitchers is this; pay for excellence or dont overpay for medocrity. Ace starters are the hardest thing in baseball to acquire so we really should resign the ace we have in Ben Sheets.

[logan82]

I am more concerned with Sheets not getting into the later innings and just not looking sharp. Even if he did look good and was in the Cy Young hunt(run support is hurting him) I wouldn't want to sink $17M+ a year into one player( I still think he is going to get more than $17M a year). If Sheets would take a front loaded contract, I would be on board, but I doubt that would happen. Even if Sheets was the front runner for the Cy Young and looked dominant, I wouldn't want to sign him.

[Thurston Fluff]

I am more concerned with Sheets not getting into the later innings and just not looking sharp

 

agreed logan. I'd like to see him averaging over 7 innings this year but he's a little lower. I don't know if part of his problem is durability or maybe the fact that he only really has two pitches. The second and third time a team sees him might help them. Anyone know how we could check on that?

[rluzinski]

So in games that Yount subjevtively cherry picks as having more significance than others (3 games apparently), Sheets is 0-3. What is that supposed to prove exactly? What is your criteria again? Going up against an elite starter and getting bad run support? How many of those games does any pithcer win in that situation!?

 

Just another example of people setting the bad unrealistically high.

[yount19.u]

If you admit that Sheets has dominated in some "big games" then you are defining him as a big game pitcher. Juts because he got outdueled by Jake Peavy doesnt mean that Ben is not an ace pitcher. Ben Sheets has been an excellent pitcher his entire career and has pitched very well in so called big games. If Sheets would recieve some run support once in awhile we wouldnt be having this discussion in the first place. As far as replacing Ben with Lowe or Garland that idea makes no sense whatsoever. Both of those guys are average starters that will be paid more than 10 million per season. We already paid for mediocrity once with Suppan and doing so again with Garland or Lowe makes no sense. My theory on paying pitchers is this; pay for excellence or dont overpay for medocrity. Ace starters are the hardest thing in baseball to acquire so we really should resign the ace we have in Ben Sheets.

I never said Sheets was dominant in big games. As for Lowe and Garland, I would say both are above average and I feel Sheets is about the same quality pitcher Lowe is. Both are solid #2 guys, but Lowe has produced a bit more in his career and has been more durable.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Sheets and Lowe are not the same caliber. Sheets is a far superior pitcher to Lowe and the numbers will prove that out. Lowe is a slightly better version of Suppan. Paying big money for mediocre pitchers like Lowe is just not smart.

[yount19.u]

So in games that Yount subjevtively cherry picks as having more significance than others (3 games apparently), Sheets is 0-3. What is that supposed to prove exactly? What is your criteria again? Going up against an elite starter and getting bad run support? How many of those games does any pithcer win in that situation!?

 

Just another example of people setting the bad unrealistically high.

It proves that he is not the #1 ace starter that many claim he is, and he does not deserve the type of money he will command in the off season. The bar is set high for Sheets for a reason. If this were Parra or Bush, I would not be suprised to see them struggle in big games or tend to tail off as the season went on. We should expect more from Sheets, though, as he is a better pitcher than they are. Fans expect the same of Peavy, Zambrano, Halladay, Oswalt, etc., why shouldn't we expect the same from Ben?

[lukevan]

Didn't someone just post that Sheets and Webb average almost exactly the same amount of IP/G this season? Also, 2008 ERAs:

 

Sheets 3.16

Webb 2.85

 

and yet one is heralded as the front runner for the Cy Young and the other is not an ace nor a big game pitcher. I just... don't know what else to say.

[bucks2281]

Three games this year fit the bill and he failed in all of them -- Dodgers, Padres and Astros last night. Even Sheets admitted to trying to make the perfect pitch in situations like these as he knows the game is close and he needs to be perfect to win. This shows that he does not have the mentality to succeed like a true #1 ace.

 

What about opening day? The offense didn't score a run until the 9th inning, and Ben didn't allow a run. That was against the Cubs -- I'd call that a pretty big game. Heck, in contrast, using your argument, you could include the game at Minnesota when the Brewers lost 5-0 ... Sheets received no support and he "caved." I'm sure you could find similar scenarios from other "true #1 aces": sometimes they just hit the wall in tight games. That's the nature of the baseball.

[JJHardy7]

I know in the past I've said we don't know what we have in Sheets when it comes to big games, but I don't think he's been all that bad the past few starts. Call it 'luck' or the randomness of baseball he's done nothing to change my mind (either good or bad) on his ability. Hopefully there will be plenty of more games this year where Sheets can pitch in a 'big game' and I hope he does well.

 

I do wonder how much of a mental thing it is for him having CC on the team. Maybe he's trying to hard?

[yount19.u]

Three games this year fit the bill and he failed in all of them -- Dodgers, Padres and Astros last night. Even Sheets admitted to trying to make the perfect pitch in situations like these as he knows the game is close and he needs to be perfect to win. This shows that he does not have the mentality to succeed like a true #1 ace.

 

What about opening day? The offense didn't score a run until the 9th inning, and Ben didn't allow a run. That was against the Cubs -- I'd call that a pretty big game. Heck, in contrast, using your argument, you could include the game at Minnesota when the Brewers lost 5-0 ... Sheets received no support and he "caved." I'm sure you could find similar scenarios from other "true #1 aces": sometimes they just hit the wall in tight games. That's the nature of the baseball.

I would have to admit that opening day would qualify as a big game as it was close, he did not give up the lead or tie, and they won. This got me thinking, though. Does anyone have the ability to get Sheets' numbers against the Cubs throughout his career? More importantly, I would be interested to see the number vs the Cubs at Miller Park.

[trwi7]

Sheets vs Cubs in career:

 

10-8, 161 IP, 3.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 35 BB, 141 K

 

at Wrigley:

 

86.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 24 BB, 70 K

 

at Miller:

 

74.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11 BB, 74 K

[yount19.u]

Sheets vs Cubs in career:

 

10-8, 161 IP, 3.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 35 BB, 141 K

 

at Wrigley:

 

86.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 24 BB, 70 K

 

at Miller:

 

74.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11 BB, 74 K

Thanks. Not nearly what I thought it would be. His ERA is only slightly worse than his career ERA and the WHIP is the same. I'm surprised there is virtually no difference between Wrigley and Miller Park. I have a sneaking suspicion his numbers vs his equal in Chicago (Zambrano) are worse. Any numbers on that?

 

BTW, the whole point of this is not to try and show that Sheets sucks. I am just arguing he is not #1 ace material. I do feel he is a very solid #2 and he has had many times where the offense has not shown up.

[trwi7]

I have a sneaking suspicion his numbers vs his equal in Chicago (Zambrano) are worse. Any numbers on that?

Are you asking for Zambrano's career numbers vs the Brewers here or for something else?

[rluzinski]

All a number one type starting pitcher has to be is among the top 30 starters in the league. Sheets is easily that. Once you start trying to define what a "true ace" is, it usually just becomes romantically subjective. "He's the kind of guy that get's you the win when you need it!" When? Always? No matter what? Huh?

 

Give me some numbers. What era defines an ace? If you care about distribution, how often should an ace give up 8 or less runs in x or more innings? Don't tell me an aces find ways to wins with 0 runs scored by his offense and don't tell me an ace is so good that none actually exist. And none of this big game stuff, either. It's just some made up thing to prove something you think is already true.

 

Give me something to test.

[yount19.u]

I have a sneaking suspicion his numbers vs his equal in Chicago (Zambrano) are worse. Any numbers on that?

Are you asking for Zambrano's career numbers vs the Brewers here or for something else?

No, I was curious what Sheets' numbers vs Zambrano are.

[yount19.u]

All a number one type starting pitcher has to be is among the top 30 starters in the league. Sheets is easily that. Once you start trying to define what a "true ace" is, it usually just becomes romantically subjective. "He's the kind of guy that get's you the win when you need it!" When? Always? No matter what? Huh?

 

Give me some numbers. What era defines an ace? If you care about distribution, how often should an ace give up 8 or less runs in x or more innings? Don't tell me an aces find ways to wins with 0 runs scored by his offense and don't tell me an ace is so good that none actually exist. And none of this big game stuff, either. It's just some made up thing to prove something you think is already true.

 

Give me something to test.

Our definition of an ace is obviously different. The best I can do for you is to use the Supreme Court's definition of obscenity -- "I know it when I see it." I don't see it with Sheets. I just don't have the confidence in Sheets to pitch well throughout a complete season or consistently well in high pressure games. I wish I could rely on statistics to back this up 100%, but they don't have statistics that measure the emotional aspect or "feel" of the game. I would say he's in the top 30 pitchers in the league, but not the top 10. An ace would be a Sabathia, Peavy, Zambrano, Oswalt, Mussina or Halladay. Pitchers who have shown throughout their careers that they will not only put up solid numbers, but win the tough ones as well. Baseball Reference shows AJ Burnett (among other lesser pitchers) as one of the closest comparable pitchers to Sheets. They are both good pitchers and would likely be #1 starters on 10 different teams, but they are not the dominant pitchers like the ones listed above.