Oswalt Recruiting Sheets

[owbc]

I'm not that concerned with Sheets' lack of performance. Unlike CC, we actually have a chance at resigning Sheets. If he lowers his value to $70-80 million, the Brewers should definitely get it done. Sheets might not be a Cy Young winner like Sabathia, but he would be the best pitcher on 2/3 of the teams in MLB.

[kmcasper23]

Sheets pitches terribly in Houston! Why would they even want him?

[statman0007]

It's unbelievable to me how hard people are on Ben Sheets. He's one of the best pitchers in the game. I think the fact that Sabathia has been ridiculously good makes people think that Sheets should be the same way. Sure, he didn't have a great night, but take out the one home-run and suddenly you have an above-average start. Sheets carried us during the first half, and has little run support in the second half. I'm not saying we should sell the farm to give him a four year deal, but to say it's inconsequential to have him leave is wrong. Seriously, it reminds me of the Capuano is our ace thread.

[TooLiveBrew]

Your All-Star pitcher has ONE WIN since the CC trade. So when CC doesn't win more than one game in what is it 8 starts, call me.

 

I can't even think of the last time you came on to post aside from 'directly following a loss.' So when you stop giving pitchers credit for offense (over which they obviously have no control), call me.

 

Both Sheets & Sabathia are going to be way out of the Brewers' price range... but don't tell that to some Brewers fans.

[logan82]

TooLiveBrew wrote:

Both Sheets & Sabathia are going to be way out of the Brewers' price range... but don't tell that to some Brewers fans.

But we have like $20M in salary coming off this year with all the players that are leaving. And if we can trade Suppan that frees up more money. We could pay Sheets like $30M next year.

 

Seriously though, as a small market club we need to maintain payroll flexability and signing free agent pitchers is a bad investment. Signing free agents in general is a bad investment if the contracts get longer than 2 years. I would have no problem with a 2 year contract for Sheets. The problem is, he is likley to get offered 4-5 and he would be stupid not to take it.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I still say we should resign Sheets. I would be willing to give him 4yrs in the 17 mil per yr range with a 5th yr vesting option. Ben is one of the best pitchers in baseball and will be nearly impossible to replace. The worst thing the Brewers could possibly do is let Sheets go and sign a 2nd tier free agent like Lowe or Garland who will definitely command more than 10 mil per year. Never ever pay big money for mediocrity; thats how we got stuck with this ridiculous contract for Suppan. By paying Sheets we would be paying for an ace starter. I would truly hate to see the Brewers let Sheets go and wind up overpaying an average starter. Sheets obviously likes playing in Milwaukee and we really should do all that we can within reason to keep him.

[Never Outhustled]

Houston right now holds the 15th pick of next year draft, which they wouldn't have to give up if they signed Sheets. However, there hot right now, and could easily jump to the 16th pick, which they would have to give up for Sheets. That would make them the perfect destination for Sheets, Giving us # 16 and a sandwich pick that should be between 32-35 (Sebathia will be the highest rated FA, giving us pick #31). Those are the picks we used to pick Lawrie and Odorrizzi this year.

[Ennder]

Btw Sabathia had 1 win in his first 7 starts this year and 3 wins in his first 15 starts. In 2007 he had a stretch of 10 games with only 2 wins. All you are seeing here is completely normal pitcher fluctuation that almost every pitcher sees every year. Over this supposedly bad stretch Sheets has allowed a .683 OPS against and has 43 K and 12 BB in 51 IP. The ERA is a tad high at 4.06 but it just normal BABIP and LOB% fluctuation that makes ERA such a bad stat over small samples.

[lukevan]

Sabathia is pitching better than anyone has in a long time.

 

Why was Sabathia not carrying the Indians to wins earlier this season? He allowed Cleveland to drop out of the race! How dare Sheets not have a sub-1.50 ERA in his last 9 starts!

[bklynbrewcrew]

If you look at there career numbers Sheets is every bit as good as Sabathia if not better. If you throw in how much each will cost and Sabathias body type it becomes clear to me that Sheets is the better guy to keep long term. If we can keep Sheets and have a rotation of Sheets, Gallardo, Parra, Bush and Suppan unless we can trade him we will have the opportunity to contend for several years to come. We have the financial flexibility to keep him and I truly believe that Sheets wants to stay if we are willing to make a fair offer.

 

With all due respect draft picks are nice and are great compensation when you are losing Linebrink and Cordero who are replaceable but they dont excite me as compensation for an ace like Ben Sheets.

[StatPipes]

I can go either way on Sheets, and I am an Astros fan. I personally hope we can sign him, and if this is as bad as he pitches like some of ya'll are saying, then I will be more than happy.

Just don't get on such a short term kick. Remember when we got Carlos Beltran? The guy was amazing for us in half a year, and everyone was declaring him the best center fielder in the game. We offered him a 111 million and he turned it down, and we couldn't have gotten any luckier on that one.

[brewcrew00]

I love coming to the site, and hopefully contribute in some capacity, but to think sports are are all about critical analysis is just simply nuts. Yes, I posted something about "gut check" time, because it's there, like it or not. It's not something learned on BBTN, it's something learned through years of playing and being around sports. Some of the greatest moments may have had a .005 percent chance of happening, but that's what makes the game. Take the US swimming relay this Olympics against the French. You can't tell me those four guys manned up, had a gut check, or did whatever slang term you can use to describe flat out getting it done, no matter what the circumstances.

 

I love the statistical analysis on this site, but it's not the ONLY thing that exists. Like it or not, sometimes athletes just need to have a little bit more than what the numbers might say.

[lukevan]

But every game is important. The players are checking their guts every game. Sheets gets four games off to wait until it's his turn to pitch. You don't think he puts max effort into every start, every inning, every pitch?

[Thurston Fluff]

Sheets might not be a Cy Young winner like Sabathia, but he would be the best pitcher on 2/3 of the teams in MLB.

 

The other 1/3 are still in the playoff hunt.

[brewcrew00]

But every game is important. The players are checking their guts every game. Sheets gets four games off to wait until it's his turn to pitch. You don't think he puts max effort into every start, every inning, every pitch?

 

You're missing the point, yes I'd like to think they give max effort all the time on every pitch, but it's not about effort, or trying hard. There's no way to explain it, but there is just something that is a little bit more. I don't care if some here think I'm crazy, some guys just have a little bit more.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I appreciate those on the board who spend far too much of their free time breaking down statistics, probabilities, and critically overananlyze everything under the baseball-related sun - the data that are compiled and presented often do a great job of summarizing what has happened.

 

In the reality of baseball, all of that analysis is about as useful as a knowledgeable baseball fan's gut when it comes to predicting outcomes of specific events within the game. Here is where I have a big disconnect with statheads - I feel that there's a "chicken or the egg" dilemma with statistical analysis. What I mean by that is there's always going to be a stat that points to why something happened - and when there isn't it gets grouped into the 'sample size' or 'statistical outlier' category. While that's valid statistically, it doesn't explain why such an outcome occurred - that's where I think some of the condescension and smugness occurs when the statistically inclined butt heads with others who are looking to quantify something that doesn't fit well on paper (health, momentum, heart, guts, clutch, winner, etc). The fact is the events that are statistical outliers in baseball are among the best (and worst, depending on what end you're on) moments in the sport.

 

Statistical analysis is completely vital in personnel evaluation, building a major league roster, and putting players in positions to succeed - understanding the nature of a relatively simple game that is easily the most unpredictable in all of sports on a game-by-game basis is hopefully something everyone can agree with.

[lukevan]

But the "little bit more" shows up in stats, no? Or are you referring to clutchiness? There are studies that some have produced that show basically no correlation from year to year in categories like BA w/RISP etc.

 

I've played tons of sports in my time so I know that there are pressure situations and maybe some are less equipped to handle those situations but I think players that make it to the major leagues have this quality or else they wouldn't be there.

[Ennder]

Baseball is an extremely random game, Sheets has pitched great as shown by all of his stats except ERA. If you are a slave to ERA or W then yeah I guess he is pitching poorly. If you dig deeper in any way then he has pitched just like he did earlier in the year.

[brewcrew00]

Not clutchiness, and simply because someone is playing professionally doesn't mean they're equipped to handle pressure situations. After some make that initial jump, it can easily be lost. Look at Geoff Jenkins, that guy rarely hit any home runs that mattered. Some guys have it, some don't. Sheets seems to not as of late.

[Ennder]

Jenkin's OPS in high leverage situations in his career is .833. His overall OPS in his career is .834.

 

My point is it is mostly in your head. People make up their minds on a player, they remember a big moment or a big choke and they attach that memory to the player for the rest of his career. At least 9 times out of 10 over a large sample things just even out and players aren't clutch or unclutch. Players who cannot pass a 'gut check' are generally players who do not make the major leagues because all of these guys have been high leverage situations many times and if they consistently failed in them they wouldn't be moving up to the next level.

[StatPipes]

As an outside observer I have to ask then...If you don't want to bring back Sheets next year because you don't think he is a big game pitcher, then who are you going to bring in? Sabathia isn't coming back, so who are you going to spend the money on?

 

I hear Lowe, Garland, etc, but are they better "big game" pitchers? I am just curious what the rationale is. Again, I am an Astros fan, so I just curious. Personally, even if there truly wasn't a "big game" pitcher, someone still has to get you to the big game. You know, Brandon Backe has pitched phenomenal in the playoffs, but would you take him over a Sheets, Garland, Lowe? Of course not, that would be ridiculous. Someone still has to get you to the big game, if you know what I mean.

 

I think the main concern for the Brewers would be the inconsistency offensively. Last nights game would have been a lot different if ya'll wouldn't have been horrendous on the base paths. Hardy in the first getting thrown out with no outs trying to go to third, and Cameron trying to score with one out and being out by 20 ft. Maybe if Sheets had more than 2 runs every game it would be a different outcome.

 

I don't mean this as bashing the Brewers, I like ya'll a heckuva lot more than the Cubs and Cards. Just some constructive criticism.

[Postseason2006]

I can't even think of the last time you came on to post aside from 'directly following a loss.' So when you stop giving pitchers credit for offense (over which they obviously have no control), call me.

You have stats to back this up? Considering the source, #1 fan in the Rickie Weeks and Ben Sheets apologist club, you might want to check that. Oh and you think Ben Sheets poor bunting skills had nothing to do with OFFENSE last night, call me.

[brewjihad]

Check out Sabathia's first four games this year. His ERA in those four was 13.50, and he gave up 5, 4, 9, and 9 (!) earned runs and averaged about 4 innings pitched. How unclutch of him to push the Indians out of the playoff race!

[lukevan]

You have stats to back this up? Considering the source, #1 fan in the Rickie Weeks and Ben Sheets apologist club, you might want to check that. Oh and you think Ben Sheets poor bunting skills had nothing to do with OFFENSE last night, call me.

 

It had something to do with the offense, but you know it's very very little.

[bklynbrewcrew]

The Ben Sheets bashers really have no leg to stand on in their argument. As for the argument that Sheets is not a "big game" pitcher I present the 2000 Olympic final where one Ben Sheets shut out Cuba for the gold medal. If pitching for the gold medal for your country isnt a big game I dont know what is.