Is Ned Dusty-ing our Pitchers?

[John Brew]

Immediately after the last out, CC just had a blank look on his face, no fist pump or celebration at all. To me he looked spent and not happy. I'm sure CC will be fine, but Ned's squirming in the dugout didn't make him look too confident in the decision either.

[jeffy]

I would have to agree there was little good to sending CC out for the 9th, but as I said, 2 higher pitch counts out of 9 starts in a pennant race is not being abused by any means. CC's due to get rocked one of these days, whether he throws 60 or 160.

 

Yes, the reaction: "OMG, CC threw 130 pitches instead of 115" really seems kind of silly.

 

 

But, there could be some good on the psychological side. I assume it was CC's call and he wanted to try to finish the game, if so, then I would agree with Yost on letting him go for it. Considering what he has given this team in his short stint here, he deserves every opportunity to complete games, if that is something he wants to do. If doing so means a lot to him, I could see it potentially having a negative impact on his performance for the last month, to not let him try (within reason). Of course, I did get a little worried that he went to far with him when Berkman was coming up with the bases loaded and Mota was the only one warmed up http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif. By that point, though, I certainly agreed with letting CC try to get Berkman rather than going to Mota.

 

Perhaps he should have been told you can start the ninth, but as soon as there is one baserunner you are out of there, even if the baserunner is caused by poor defense.

I am just not convinced that pitchers are as fragile as some (based on the over reaction to this and the constant worring about Parra's innings) seem to believe.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

I thought that CC threw too many pitches, and in a game in which he didn't have too. He had problems in the play-offs last year and many self-proclaimed experts attribute to all of the innings he pitched during the season. I hope he doesn't have the same problems for us in the last two weeks of the season. I would much rather skip a guy and pitch CC and Ben more often. That is where we have an advantage.

[Fatter than Joey]

there is no way Yost brings in Mota so he can give up a granny to Berkman, then a HBP and another granny. Too many blown leads over the past few years.

 

If Yost is really afraid that Mota is going to give up 2 grannys in 1 inning, Mota should not be on the team, and both Yost and DM should be fired immediately.

 

There is no denying that a pitcher's effectiveness decays after a 130 pitch outing -- that has been shown. Now if the game would have been 2-1, I think CC would have been fine to pitch that 9th inning, as I do not think that the decay is greater than the decline in quality going from CC to Torres.

 

However, leaving CC to protect a 7 run lead -- that's buffoonery.

[Fatter than Joey]

How about Nolan Ryan? He was known to have reached 160 pitches and he pitched until his late 40's Sabathia threw 256 innings last year between the regular season and playoffs. The guy's a horse.

 

I don't mean to be snarky JB12 -- but do you have any idea how Ryan pitched in the games following after dropping in 160 heaters?

 

To be clear -- I don't care about the long-term issues of CC, and I do not think CC's arm is going to fall off this season because he hits 130 pitches in a game. However I am concerned that his effectiveness down the stretch could be compromised.

 

There was a study done -- that concluded that a pitcher can expect to give up about 1 run over his next 3 starts after throwing 130 pitches (or something resembling that). Is .333 runs worthwhile to give up to protect a 1 run lead in the 9th -- probably. Is it optimal to give up that .333 future run to protect a 7 run lead -- probably not.

 

I think everyone here agrees that CC is a horse, and can throw 130 pitches -- it just is probably not optimal.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Of course CC wants to finish the game. He's a competitor and probably never wants to come out of the game. This is where Ned needs to take control and show some leadership. Our bullpen is in fine shape and we had a huge lead. Regardless of your side between Sabathia broke down in the playoffs versus he's a horse and pitch counts don't matter...there was no reason for him to be out there. Granted, things like Arizona do happen, but a reasonable major league bullpen should be able to hold a 6-7 run lead.

 

He even mentioned after the game he was counting on the extra day of rest...if he is indeed such a horse, I would have rather yanked him after 7 and threw him back out there on Saturday.

[naivin]

I don't know how ANYONE can side with Yost in this scenario. The only reason to trot CC out for the 9th last night was so that he could get a complete game. There is no other reason.

 

I dunno. The pen logged plenty of inning in LA, and they are a man down as is with Torres seemingly unavailable at the moment. CG has an extra day off coming up. Add to that the fact that Sheets and Parra have not exactly been able to go too deep of late (with the lone exception of Sheets a couple starts ago), and I'm not sure it is that big of a deal. If he continues to throw 130 pitches, there is reason to be concerned, but if its is a one time thing...so be it.

[endaround]

No, Villaneauva logged a lot of innings. Riske, Shouse, Gange, and Mota have hardly pitched.

[fondybrewfan]

Since when does a pitcher's size have anything to do with if he is a "horse". Everybody brings up the fact that he is huge for a reason behind leaving him with higher pitch counts. I may not be a doctor but I don't buy this argument. I don't think someone who is 100 pounds lighter than CC with the same talent should be treated any differently in terms of pitch counts. Huge men aren't less likely to pull a muscle or strain a shoulder. If this is not true I would really like to see some proof. It also isn't like CC is the 6'7" version of Gabe Kapler either. He isn't "ripped" or a freak athletic specimen, he is just a huge man that is awesome at throwing a baseball.

[brewcrewkid14]

I think we are overreacting a bit. Sabathia was a guy that pitched 241 innings last year. There are very few pitchers out there that Ned would be able to do this with. Sabathia is one of those guys. It hasn't affected him yet so there is no reason to get all worked up over it yet.

 

On the other hand, I think that Sheets may suffer a bit from overuse, and I think especially with his susceptibility to injury, Yost would be smart to be careful with him.

 

Sabathia's a freak of nature. He's probably one of five pitchers in the league that has the ability to do what he does every time out.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

You'd think the Brewers would want him to pitch less complete games in blowout situations because the more CG's he gets, the higher his price is in the offseason, but that is all moot anyways since his asking price will be off the charts for a small market team.

 

C.C. is at 195 innings now for the season. Yikes.

[Bring Back the Stein]

If last year you told me there would be arguments in late August about C.C. Sabathia's (!) pitch count in complete-game wins as a Brewer (!), the smile on my face would have broken my neck.

 

That said, if next year I'm having the conversation, "Remember when C.C. pitched in Game 1 of the NLCS and he gave up five runs in the third inning to the Mets with that tired arm?" I will likely want to break someone else's neck.

 

My view on the matter? God bless Warren Spahn, but the times have changed and we are paying good money for that pen. Use it.

[JohnBriggs12]

The argument that what worked 30 years ago won't work today is astounding. Not everyone then logged 250-300 innings, but the top guys did. There's no reason that some of today's pitchers couldn't do what the guys in previous generations did if given the chance. Most aren't because teams have too much invested and don't want to take any risks. But the Brewers have such a relatively minor investment in Sabathia that they don't really have a reason to hold him back especially when he has 5 days of rest before his next start.

 

Would I have taken him out for the 9th last night? Yeah I would but only to get Mota some work. Mota's been throwing it real well lately and might be needed in a key situation before this is all over and I'd want him sharp. Do I think they ruined Sabathia? No.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Look at 1982...by the end of the year, Vuke & Fingers were hurt and Sutton & Medich were out of gas. Granted, CC is in his prime and all those guys were in the later stages of their careers, but if you pitch a guy when he's not needed, all you are doing is increasing the chance of injury or wearing a guy out. I'm as nostalgic as the next guy, but for every Warren Spahn there are 100 talented guys we don't remember because they blew their arms out. That's why they use things like pitch counts.

[Glennron]

I think we are overreacting a bit. Sabathia was a guy that pitched 241 innings last year. There are very few pitchers out there that Ned would be able to do this with. Sabathia is one of those guys. It hasn't affected him yet so there is no reason to get all worked up over it yet.

 

He had a 9 ERA in 15.1 postseason innings while walking 13 guys. I know it's an extremely small sample to use, but isn't it a possibility that he tired by October? I'd rather not run that risk if the Brewers do end up making the playoffs.

[jeffy]

He even mentioned after the game he was counting on the extra day of rest...if he is indeed such a horse, I would have rather yanked him after 7 and threw him back out there on Saturday.

 

The decision had already been made that he was getting the extra day and Yost was not going to skip anyone. You may disagree with that decision, but he was not going to pitch Saturday, whether he threw 130 pitches or 80 yesterday.

[TheCrew07]

The bottom line as I see it is getting to playoffs. I'm unconcerned right now about anything beyond getting there. I know CC wanted to pitch the 9th, I personally didn't care for the decision. However, I highly doubt that those 20 pitches will keep this team out of the playoffs. Since they are "going for it", I'll be supremely disappointed if they don't push everyone (with the exception of Parra) to the limits to achieve that goal, otherwise what exactly was the point of aquiring Sabathia in the first place? While the fans here on the site talk quite a bit about the post season, I don't personally think that's a luxury the Brewers staff can afford at this time, they have to concentrate all their efforts on getting to that point first, and worry about the rest when they get there.

 

I have a hard time excepting the whole PAP notion, the better pitcher you are, the more pitches you throw and the more innings you pitch. I also have a hard time accepting the notion that CC pitched poorly because he was tired last year in the playoffs. That's just an opinion that's difficult to prove either way based on 1 season's performance. Again, I didn't like CC coming out for the 9th, but let's not blow this out of proportion.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

The decision had already been made that he was getting the extra day and Yost was not going to skip anyone. You may disagree with that decision, but he was not going to pitch Saturday, whether he threw 130 pitches or 80 yesterday.

 

jeff - very fair point. My argument breaks down because I combined two decisions that I disagreed with. Let me rephrase - 1) IMO, The option should have been kept open to throw CC on Saturday, getting him an extra start before year end. In a closer game, Torres would have been out there anyway. They should have planned for that in advance. 2) IMO, In a blowout, throwing him out there for the last two innings gained very little and increased the chance of injury or fatigue. They gained nothing and risked a great deal.

[Thurston Fluff]

As for Sabathia saying he was fine to go, Pedro Martinez told Grady Little he was fine too.

 

Since CC didn't implode and successfully finished the game despite some poor fielding what's the point you're tying to make? Add in the fact that you could cut CC in half and he would still be bigger than Pedro so I don't see how those two scenarios have anything to do with each other.

 

Since when does a pitcher's size have anything to do with if he is a "horse". Everybody brings up the fact that he is huge for a reason behind leaving him with higher pitch counts. I may not be a doctor but I don't buy this argument. I don't think someone who is 100 pounds lighter than CC with the same talent should be treated any differently in terms of pitch counts.

 

size matters in that bigger guys usually aren't max effort guys. Throwing with every ounce of effort to hit 95 is a lot harder on the body than free and easy 95. Not every big guy is like that so size may not be the factor but CC does throw pretty easy and rarely seems to tire.

 

There was a study done -- that concluded that a pitcher can expect to give up about 1 run over his next 3 starts after throwing 130 pitches (or something resembling that).

 

Unless that study includes the effects of having an extra day of rest before the next start it's not really relevant to this situation.

 

It is odd that last year at this time the main criticism of Yost was pulling his starters to early and over working the pen in the process. This year it's him overworking his starters. Which is it? I realize the pen was capable of absorbing the one inning without undue stress. Unless of course the pen is needed top cover 10 innings over the next five games. Unless someone can tell us how much the pen will be used in the next week or two it is hard to criticize Ned for saving them now when they have a starter both capable and willing to finish the game.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Sabathia doesn't have to be Prior or Wood or Pedro for it to be abso-freaking-lutely imbecilic to run him out there for 130 pitches in a game that is already won. I don't know whether this will adversely affect him in his next few starts, or whether this kind of deal, repeated over and over down the stretch, will cause him to tire and lose effectiveness at some point in September or in the playoffs. None of the rest of you do either, and neither does Yost.

 

I don't think that the over-worked pen criticism from last year and the over-worked rotation criticism from this year are in any way mutually exclusive. It is, in fact, fairly obvious that it is possible to go to too far an extreme in either direction.

 

This is just my visceral reaction, and I'll grant I'm still pretty cheesed off right now, but dangit...Yost is the worst judge of high vs. low leverage, the worst judge of what sort of pitcher is appropriate in what sort of situation, and about the worst judge of how far to push any kind of effective pitcher (be it a starter or reliever) I've ever had the disprivilege to have to endure watching manage a Major League Baseball team.

[Loopee]

I disagree both with running CC out there until the end of the game in a blowout and also with failing to alter the rotation to allow CC/Sheets more starts.

 

It simply does not make sense that additional starts on 5 days rest would be too dangerous but having your ace throw 130+ pitches in a game that you have no real shot of losing is acceptable.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ned was paraphrased by BA last night... and I will now re-paraphrase: 'I don't really worry too much about pitch counts until you get up around 120 pitches'

 

 

The notion, 'Well, CC didn't get hurt, therefore stuff it!' is lunacy.

[danzig6767]

Unless someone can tell us how much the pen will be used in the next week or two it is hard to criticize Ned for saving them now when they have a starter both capable and willing to finish the game.

Few starters aren't willing to stay in a game and finish it if asked. It's the managers job though to say no, you're already at 112 pitches and we're up 9-2, we'll let one of our rested and low leverage relief guys pitch the last inning. You act like we are talking about the 5th inning and Ned had to decide on covering many innings which might tax the bullpen instead of what actually was the case, any of the relievers pitching one inning in a 9-2 game.

 

 

[bklynbrewcrew]

There was no upside whatsoever to pitching Sabathia in the 9th inning of a blowout. We have a very well rested bullpen and that is reason enough to take out Sabathia. Hopefully Sabathia will be fine but nothing good comes out of running your pitchers to the ground. We still have lots of games to play and risking the health of a starter just so he can pad his CG stat is inexcusable. We all laugh at how Dusty Baker handles his pitchers but Ned is no better.

[naivin]

Suppan has pitched better than Parra of late. He's not getting skipped.

 

Yeah, the way things have gone lately, if anyone is going to get skipped, I'm not sure Sheets shouldn't be the choice.