2008 NL Cy Young Race

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

(Taken from my post on badgermaniac.com)

Sabathia is 8-0 with a 1.60 ERA. He's started eight games. Its unlikely he matches his stats from the first nine games with his next seven starts (Brewers have 38 more games, he should start 7 more)

Assuming he would match, here are his final NL stats

128 IP 98 H 26 R 24 ER 26 BB 120 K 1.65 ERA 0.97 WHIP .203 BAA 14-0

Those are Roger Clemens-esqe numbers from a few years ago.

If I add CC's AL #s to these projected NL #s, here is the comparison between CC and Brandon Webb

CC 20-8 (14-0) 250 IP 215 H 74 ER 60 BB 243 K 2.66 ERA 1.09 WHIP .222 BAA
BW 23-5 (23-5) 228 IP 203 H 73 ER 55 BB 188 K 2.88 ERA 1.13 WHIP .238 BAA

I'd say, all in all, these numbers are very close. CC's ERA, WHIP, and BAA are slightly better, he has an edge in IP and K, where Webb has an advantage in record (23-5) assuming we are considering total numbers.

CC's NL #s will be unquestionably better, but only 16 of his starts (versus 34 for Webb) will be in the NL.

This is a tough one, but if CC goes 13-0 or 14-0, with an ERA below 2.00, i think he deserves the CY Young nod. Its tough not to give a 20 game winner with an ERA below 3.00 the nod, but 14-0 with a 1.55 ERA is just sick.

[pitchleague]

he's definitely going to get some votes, as Braun will for MVP.

 

But you said it yourself. He's got 7-8 more starts left. Let's see what happens after that. We're going to need something to talk about on that Monday off-day on October 1st anyways, right?

[ELCABALLO45]

he's definitely going to get some votes, as Braun will for MVP.

 

But you said it yourself. He's got 7-8 more starts left. Let's see what happens after that. We're going to need something to talk about on that Monday off-day on October 1st anyways, right?

I like the way you think! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

But yeah, its going to be hard to un seat Brandon Webb thats for sure.

[brewerguy71]

The Cy Young is Webb or Lincecum's to win. Sabathia may get some votes, may even finish in the top 5, but if he wins it there is something wrong, especially if Webb wins 20 and Lincecum continues at the pace he is on.

The BBWAA would never give the Cy to a player that missed the first 2.5 months of a season. Which for all intensive purposes in voting for the NL Cy Young Award, he did. The AL numbers have no bearing on the award.

As for Braun and the MVP, he has to finish the year right now, he may be headed for the DL, and last year the exact same thing happened to Chase Utley, and he had no chance of winning it by years end. If he doesnt go on the DL and things remain as they are now statistically standing, it has to be Berkman or Pujols.

[Ennder]

Webb will win the CY, Lincecum has no chance.

 

Braun won't win MVP because he'll miss 15+ games with his injury and just wont' get enough counting stats.

[Team Canada]

The BBWAA would never give the Cy to a player that missed the first 2.5 months of a season. Which for all intensive purposes in voting for the NL Cy Young Award, he did. The AL numbers have no bearing on the award.

 

You mean besides Sutcliffe?

[crewcrazy]

It would take an epic collapse by Webb in order for him not to win the Cy, IMO. The guy will likely end up with 20-23 wins, which will pretty much clinch the award most years (not saying that I agree with it, but it's usually the way it works). On a SportsCenter special the other day, Steve Phillips actually mentioned Sabathia in the NL MVP race, but not the Cy Young race -- I was only half-listening, but he said something like he felt no other player had as big of an impact on his team as Sabathia's acquisition had on the Brewers. I don't know how a pitcher could win the MVP if he wasn't even deemed to be the best pitcher in his league, but whatever. As far as the MVP race goes, I'll say Braun finishes third or fourth, due to all the time he's going to miss due to injury by the end of the year. If he had stayed healthy he probably had a chance at 40+ HR and 120 RBI, but like Ennder said, he won't get the necessary counting stats now. I'd say David Wright would get a ton of support from the national meda if the Mets pull out the East, and likewise for Chase Utley and the Phils. If the Cards stay close until the end of the year, Pujols will get a ton of support too, despite his power numbers being down a bit.

[pitchleague]

to be fair, I never said that CC and/or Braun would win their respective awards. I only said that they would get votes. And they WILL get some votes. I'll bet my year's salary on that.

[cwolf2012]

I think it's entirely possible that Sabathia wins if Webb doesn't win 22 games. The BBWAA has done some crazy stuff in the past, and giving a theoretically 1.60 ERA 14 win pitcher in half a season the Cy Young seems entirely feasible. He has clearly been the best pitcher in the NL since coming over.

[Team Canada]

Actually, someone at ESPN (Stark? Olney?) had an article recently that pointed out Webb has actually been at least as good as CC.

[yount19.u]

If CC continues to pitch his team into the the playoffs, and the Diamondbacks miss the post season, I think he has an excellent change of winning the Cy Young and an outside chance of getting the MVP. Despite the shortened NL season for him, he would clearly be the most dominant pitcher during that time span if things continue. As for the MVP, if this all plays out as I described it would be hard to argue he's not an MVP, as without CC, the Brewers likely would not make the playoffs.

[TSack27]

Actually, someone at ESPN (Stark? Olney?) had an article recently that pointed out Webb has actually been at least as good as CC.

ESPN also has an article giving the Cy Young lead to Webb, but giving CC a better chance at the MVP...hmmmm.

 

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=22022

 

"Q: Which is more likely, Sabathia wins the NL cy young or the NL MVP? And does he still have a shot for MVP if he doesn't win the cy young?

A: Oddly enough, the MVP is a possibility (however slight) while the Cy Young isn't, because Brandon Webb's got that locked up. Speaking of whom, is the MVP in play for Webb? What if he finishes 22-6 and none of the hitters comes out of the pack? Nah, I guess not."

[bjkrautk]

I don't see the CC for MVP argument; he's going to pitch less than 20 games for the Brewers.

As good as he's been, the reason that Milwaukee is in the race is because of how valuable Braun, Fielder, Hart, etc., have been in the other 140+ games.

 

The Brewers were Wild Card contenders without Sabathia, so I can't see that much added value (unless they can somehow pry the Division away from the Cubs).

 

 

...don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's pitching for the Brewers, and I think he makes them a much stronger team (especially in the playoffs), but the notion that he's the most valuable guy on the roster (much less the whole NL) just doesn't sit well with me.

[brewerguy71]

If I were a BBWAA writer, my vote for Cy Young would go to Lincecum first, Webb, Haren, Hamels then Santana to round out my top 5 (is it 5 or 3 votes? I forget). Lincecum is the most dominant pitcher in the league this year and is having a better season that Webb. He is leading the league in Strikeouts, ERA, Strikeouts per 9 innings, he has the best WPA among NL Pitchers, Pitcher Runs Created (runs prevented), Fielding Independent Pitching, Win Shares, and has the highest VORP right now among NL Pitchers. Webb is leading the league in wins and thats it. He is at best the 2nd best pitcher in the NL this year. Cy Young Award is supposed to go to the best pitcher in the leauge, right?

[Fatter than Joey]

The BBWAA would never give the Cy to a player that missed the first 2.5 months of a season.

 

Sutcliffe won the NL CY in 1984, playing 2.5 months in the AL

[brewerguy71]

Maybe I should change that "would" to "should". Its happened once in the history of the award, I'd call that a rarity.

Also, Sutcliffe was traded to the Cubs on June 13 of 1984, Sabathia July 8 of 2008. That's an entire month's difference. Can you really give the Cy Young to a guy who has spent less than 50% of the season in the league?

[Menotti80]

CC had a no-decision against the cubs... sorry to nitpick.

[ILuvDaBush]

2009 NL Cy Young Winner....Rich Harden.

[brewerguy71]

If you look at Sabathia for this year, should you also look at Harden? He is 3-1 and the Cubs are 5-2 in his starts, he actually has left with the lead in all 7 of his starts. He's probably got 6 starts left.

 

He has an impressive line...44 IP 26 hits, 14 BB, 59 K's, 7 ER .173 BAA, 1.43 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.

 

I realize, of course, that he has no shot, but he has put up just as good of numbers as Sabathia has (minus the innings). So if you consider Sabathia worthy of consideration, Harden should get it too.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

As you pointed out, "minus the innings". Harden is averaging barely over 6 innings per start. CC is over 8, and in only 9 starts has managed to take over the league lead in complete games. When you leave games with the lead and three innings left, its not the same as sealing the deal. IMO, it's not even close.

[cwolf2012]

Here's a decent argument as to why CC is more impressive than Harden thus far:

 

http://www.hardballtimes....main/article/not-so-fast/

[endaround]

VORP for the NL:

 

Linecum: 53.7

Santana: 49.0

Webb: 48.4

Haren: 46.1

Dempster: 44.5

(Not ant Ace)Sheets: 42.7

Hamles:42.0

Billingsley: 41.8

Peavy: 41.2

Volquez: 39.2

Cain: 38.8

Zambrano:38.2

Hudson: 36.8

Malholm:36.0

Cook:32.6

Jurrjens:32.5

Moyer: 32.1

Sabathia: 30.2

 

Right now Sabathia has only pitched 73 innings in the NL. He's like a closer right now. If he continues pitching lights out he haa a chance but as this shows he has a lot of climbing to do.

[Tbadder]

I think the only way CC wins is if he goes 16-0, and Webb ends up with something like 20-7. Give it to Webb; we all know he deserves it.

[endaround]

No Linecum deserves it, Webb is likely to win it.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think Webb would have to get hurt and soon for CC to have a chance to snag that from him.

 

Now MVP he actually might have a better shot at. As odd as that sounds.