Hurricane Fay, headed for Sarasota, FL

[lcbj68c]

This absolutely sucks. As a fan of mass chaos, surely the hurricane season after I leave the area suddenly is in the dead rights of a small scale hurricane. All you Florida peoples stay safe!

www.nhc.noaa.gov

[SeriesFinale]

I grew up in Sarasota and still have a ton of family on Florida's Gulf Coast, including my sister and her family and my Grandparents.

 

I'm not too concerned but it feels like the Tampa Bay area has been dodging monster storms forever (although Charley really did a number south of there recently) so one of these days I know the piper will come to collect.

[owbc]

We haven't had any weather threads for awhile--I think that is probably a good thing.

 

Let me first correct the title--Fay is a weak tropical storm and not a hurricane. It might be a hurricane in the future which is what all the fuss is about.

 

Fay is finally looking better organized this evening, but it is encountering wind shear and dry air, which are limiting the thunderstorms to the east side of the storm. It will remain a TS when it hits Cuba and will weaken tomorrow.

 

However, the latest forecast tracks are concerning, because they have shifted farther to the west. If the storm goes farther west, it will traverse more warm ocean waters on its way to Florida, which could make the difference between a strong TS/weak 1 landfall vs. a Cat. 2 landfall. Since force increases exponentially with increased wind speed, once you start getting into the Cat 2/3 range, Fay could cause significantly more damage if it hits the Florida panhandle compared with West-Central Florida.

 

IMO, it will make landfall as a Cat. 1 and not cause significant damage. In fact, the storm could also be a blessing, as a track over the southeast US could erase the ongoing drought. The most interesting thing is to see the difference in media coverage between this potential landfall and Dolly. The retirement communities in Florida are worth much more media time than South Texas, I guess.

 

Fay info

Satellite

[craigharmann]

The retirement communities in Florida are worth much more media time than South Texas, I guess.

Quite interesting you mention that. I live in San Antonio, and really the only rain we've received this summer was from Dolly and Eduard. We are roughly 13 inches of rain less than what we typically receive by this point in the year. This week, we're actually support to get a good amount of rain. Probably not enough to make up the drought, but a lot of rain to help. But those retirement communities are more important. And my 3 siblings live in Tampa, and they don't seem too concerned.

[lcbj68c]

The track has again shifted just slightly to the east, putting landfall around Tampa perhaps. Earlier it was just bit more north before slicing east, say Ocala area. The reason Sarasota/Tampa keep dodging storms is because it is very difficult to get one here. This is the only real possible way to get a good hurricane hitting in that it must come into the gulf, stall, and then go back east. Anything slamming Miami and continuing across is worthless. Most of the high mountains and elevation of Cuba is in eastern Cuba and this little jaunt acorss Cuba won't weaken Fay very much. I also am going to guess a small Category 1 with winds at 74mph and landfall at Port Charlotte.

[tristarscoop]

My friend in the Keys has been boarded up all weekend. They were told they'd be closed Monday and Tuesday by Friday afternoon.

[owbc]

Latest forecast now only gives Fay a 30% chance of becoming a hurricane.