8/13/08 Brewers (Sabathia) at Padres (Banks): 9:05 PM CDT

[wibadgers23]

CC Sabathia (12-8, 3.11 ERA, 46 BB/175 SO)

http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i289/brewers0048/a651c998-2fe7-4c24-bdc4-9da93911d2a.jpg

Previous Starts:

DATE	OPP	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	TBF	#Pit	Dec.	Rel.	ERA
8/8	WAS	W 5-0	9.0	5	0	0	0	1	9	13	3	32	103	W(6-0)	--	1.58
8/2	@ATL	W 4-2	8.1	6	2	2	0	1	9	11	7	32	109	W(5-0)	--	1.88
7/28	CHC	L 4-6	6.2	9	4	3	1	2	3	10	8	30	124	--	--	1.82
7/23	@STL	W 3-0	9.0	3	0	0	0	2	7	12	7	31	106	W(4-0)	--	1.36
7/18	@SF	W 9-1	9.0	4	1	1	1	0	10	16	4	31	110	W(3-0)	--	1.88
7/13	CIN	W 3-2	9.0	8	2	2	0	1	9	10	8	36	122	W(2-0)	--	2.40
7/8	COL	W 7-3	6.0	5	3	2	0	5	5	11	2	27	97	W(1-0)	--	3.00
Previously with CLE, Acquired by MIL
7/2	@CWS	L 5-6	8.0	7	5	4	2	2	5	10	10	34	123	--	--	3.83
6/27	CIN	W 6-0	8.0	4	0	0	0	2	11	8	6	30	116	W(6-8)	--	3.78
6/21	@LAD	W 7-2	7.0	5	1	1	1	1	10	12	2	27	116	--	--	4.06

Versus

 

Josh Banks (3-4, 3.77 ERA, 18 BB/38 SO)

http://media.scout.com/Media/Image/36/363938.jpg

Previous Starts:

DATE	OPP	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	TBF	#Pit	Dec.	Rel.	ERA
8/7	@NYM	L 3-5	5.0	9	3	3	0	1	4	9	2	25	89	--	--	3.77
8/1	SF	L 2-3	7.0	8	2	1	0	1	2	12	9	26	88	--	--	3.65
7/26	@PIT	W 9-6	5.2	6	5	5	2	2	3	3	10	26	90	W(3-4)	--	3.92
7/21	@CIN	W 6-4	5.2	7	4	4	2	2	2	7	8	24	84	--	--	3.51
7/13	ATL	L 3-12	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	5	12	--	--	3.20
7/6	@ARI	L 2-3	6.0	7	3	3	2	1	2	6	14	27	93	L(2-4)	--	3.08
7/1	@COL	L 0-4	5.0	6	4	4	0	3	4	7	4	24	74	L(2-3)	--	2.89
6/26	MIN	L 3-4	5.1	7	4	4	1	2	1	4	11	25	81	L(2-2)	--	2.33
6/19	@NYY	L 1-2	5.1	4	2	2	0	1	3	8	4	22	105	L(2-1)	--	1.62
6/13	@CLE	L 5-9	5.0	5	3	3	2	0	4	4	6	19	81	--	--	1.29

N.L. Central Standings:

Team	W	L	Pct.	GB	Home	Road	East	Cent.	West	L10	Strk
Chi. Cubs	71	47	.602	-	45-17	26-30	9-6	33-22	23-10	7-3	W 1
Milwaukee (41)	69	51	.575	3	36-23	33-28	16-12	30-23	16-8	8-2	W 7
St. Louis (36)	66	56	.541	7	33-28	33-28	16-12	26-26	17-10	4-6	L 1
Houston (33)	60	59	.504	11½	31-26	29-33	13-9	26-28	14-11	8-2	W 6
Pittsburgh (27)	54	65	.454	17½	32-27	22-38	14-14	24-28	10-14	3-7	L 1
Cincinnati (25)	53	67	.442	19	31-31	22-36	18-17	17-29	9-15	2-8	W 1

Wild Card Race:

Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Milwaukee	69	51	.575	-
St. Louis	66	56	.541	4
N.Y. Mets	63	56	.529	5½
Florida	63	57	.525	6
L.A. Dodgers	60	59	.504	8½
Houston	60	59	.504	8½
Atlanta	55	63	.466	13
Pittsburgh	54	65	.454	14½
Cincinnati	53	67	.442	16
Colorado	53	68	.438	16½
San Francisco	50	68	.424	18
San Diego	46	73	.387	22½
Washington	44	76	.367	25

[holybannana]

I feel like CC gives the Brewers a very good chance to win this game.

[wibadgers23]

Best case scenario today is we win and the Cubs lose both games, putting us 1.5 games back. Worst case scenario is we lose and the Cubs win both games, putting us 4.5 games back. Kinda wierd.

[Mass Haas]

It's all about the loss column, baby. Up five in the wild card, down four in the division.

[sargennm]

Nice effort last night boys, let's make sure we score at least five tonight for CC.

[sheethead]

Its really encouraging to see the Crew is up by more in the Wild Card than the Cubs are up in the division. I'm hoping for a Brewers win and a Cubs/Braves split today. That would keep the heat turned up for me.

[RobDeer 45]

Yes, double for the cubs today really makes things interesting. Here's to CC pitching a gem! Lets make up some more ground.

[Dmiles23]

Wow, I was looking at Banks stats, his ERA particularly, over his last 10 appearances and his season ERA. I was thinking there had to be a misprint someplace because his last 10 appearances have not been very good and his season ERA says 3.77. But he started off the season giving up 1 earned run in 23 innings. Since, he's allowed 30 earned runs in 51 innings, for a 5.29 ERA. Let's rough this guy up!

[jhart05]

Wow. Could have a three game swing in the standings, hey?

 

I'm pretty confident the Brewer machine will crank out another W.

 

GO BRAVES!! How about helping out your former home today?

[rluzinski]

Why is the loss column more important than the win column? Is it the whole, controling your own destiny thing of just the fact that they've played 2 emore games than the Brewer? The former doesn't change the odds, while the latter does, ever so slightly.

[Brian the Automator]

Why is the loss column more important than the win column? Is it the whole, controling your own destiny thing of just the fact that they've played 2 emore games than the Brewer? The former doesn't change the odds, while the latter does, ever so slightly.

The better the team, the more likely the team is to win the missing games from the win column, I would think...

 

[rluzinski]

Right. The Brewers have something like an expected win% of .540 for those two extra games (are they 2 extra home or away games?). The Cardinals essentially went .500 in them. .08 extra expected wins. It matters very little in baseball, since the maority of teams are pretty close to .500 in true talent.

 

Am I looking at this wrong?

[bullox]

rluzinski, peeing in Brewerfan's collective fruit loops since March 2003.

 

I kid, I kid.

[olliegjw]

Right. The Brewers have something like an expected win% of .540 for those two extra games (are they 2 extra home or away games?). The Cardinals essentially went .500 in them. .08 extra expected wins. It matters very little in baseball, since the maority of teams are pretty close to .500 in true talent.

 

Am I looking at this wrong?

I would look at 8% as a rather significant difference, in baseball. That is like the difference between a .300 hitter and a .220 hitter. While I agree with your premise that the loss column difference is overrated, by some, it is not a trivial difference that you seem to imply.

[Darnell Junior]

I've always thought of that loss column thing as being nonsense, too. It's one thing to say that the loss column is slightly more important than the total games back, but when I hear guys on ESPN saying that the loss column is "All that matters" I get slightly irritated. That being said let's get one more game closer to free burgers!

[CportBadger]

Sorry if this has been covered in another thread, but why was Peavy scratched? IIRC, he was listed as the starter on ESPN.com yesterday.

[Menotti80]

i thought he was going tomrorow against sheets

[wibadgers23]

Yeah, Peavy got moved up to tomorrow.

[jhart05]

I didn't get to post this last night, but what's up with San Diego's outfield?

 

On that second ball out to center last night, when Cam had to come running in on it, he was taking some pretty big divots. I don't think I've seen that before.

 

Did they just have a bunch of rain recently out there?

 

Is their outfield similar to the greens in golf?

 

Maybe Cam just had on the long cleats last night.

 

Anyone know?

[rluzinski]

rluzinski, peeing in Brewerfan's collective fruit loops since March 2003.

 

And when I don't flip out after the Brewers lose 3 or 4 games, I am accused of not being able to take my Brewer goggles off. I'm just going to look at the facts and go where they take me.

I would look at 8% as a rather significant difference, in baseball. That is like the difference between a .300 hitter and a .220 hitter. While I agree with your premise that the loss column difference is overrated, by some, it is not a trivial difference that you seem to imply.

 

That's .08 wins, not 8%. You want to call it .1 wins and I won't object. And I'm not implying anything. I'm flat out saying that a tenth of a win is trivial.

[phxMILWfan]

I think most peoples issue with you rluzinski is that you are condescending, irritating, and generally have the attitude that you know more than anyone else about the topic at hand. Would it have been that difficult for you to let someone be excited about their point of view? They believe that the Brewers will benefit from having two extra games left as compared to another team. You are right depending on where those games are played could make their point irrelevant. That said, we should all be excited about the way the team is playing right now.

[wibadgers23]

Line-up:

2B Rickie Weeks

SS JJ Hardy

LF Gabe Kapler

1B Prince Fielder

RF Corey Hart

3B Craig Counsell

CF Mike Cameron

C Jason Kendall

P CC Sabathia

[olliegjw]

That's .08 wins, not 8%. You want to call it .1 wins and I won't object. And I'm not implying anything. I'm flat out saying that a tenth of a win is trivial.

I was using your number of 54% chance of winning. 54% of winning the extra game versus 46% chance of the other team losing a game. That is an 8% difference. Obviously, that would change depending on opponents, but the idea is still the same.

 

A tenth of a win over 162 games is 16 games in the standings. I wouldn't exactly call that trivial.

[razzzorsharp]

That's .08 wins, not 8%. You want to call it .1 wins and I won't object. And I'm not implying anything. I'm flat out saying that a tenth of a win is trivial.

I was using your number of 54% chance of winning. 54% of winning the extra game versus 46% chance of the other team losing a game. That is an 8% difference. Obviously, that would change depending on opponents, but the idea is still the same.

 

A tenth of a win over 162 games is 16 games in the standings. I wouldn't exactly call that trivial.

I may be wrong but I thought it just dealt with the two game not talking about the 162 game season.

[tosabrewfan]

A tenth of a win over 162 games is 16 games in the standings. I wouldn't exactly call that trivial.

But it's not a tenth of win over 162 games, it is a increase in total expected wins by .08 wins -it's trivial (e.g. the difference between expecting the Brewers to win 90 or 90.08 wins - a .00088 percent difference in expected wins).