Pitching Rotation "Secret Scenarios"

[brewerfan82]

In Adam McCalvy's mailbag yesterday, he indicated Yost had "several top-secret scenarios" for the pitching rotation to finish up the year. McCalvy pointed out that rotation as is would result in Sheets missing out on some key series, including all of the remaining Cubs games.

 

I put together a couple possible scenarios, one keeping Sabathia and Sheets on course to pitch as close to schedule as possible (theoretically the presumed rotation) and one that mixes up the rotation a little bit. I wonder how close this is to one of Yost's "top-secret scenarios".

 

** () indicate number of days rest if more than 4

 

Game	Regular Rotation	"Top-Secret" Rotation #1	"Top-Secret" Rotation #2
Wed 8/13 @SDP Thu 8/14 @SDP Fri 8/15 @LAD Sat 8/16 @LAD Sun 8/17 @LAD Mon 8/18 vHOU Tue 8/19 vHOU Wed 8/20 vHOU Fri 8/22 vPIT Sat 8/23 vPIT Sun 8/24 vPIT Tue 8/26 @STL Wed 8/27 @STL Fri 8/29 @PIT Sat 8/30 @PIT Sun 8/31 @PIT Mon 9/01 vNYM Tue 9/02 vNYM Wed 9/03 vNYM Thu 9/04 vSDP Fri 9/05 vSDP Sat 9/06 vSDP Sun 9/07 vSDP Mon 9/08 vCIN Tue 9/09 vCIN Wed 9/10 vCIN Thu 9/11 @PHI Fri 9/12 @PHI Sat 9/13 @PHI Sun 9/14 @PHI Tue 9/16 @CHC Wed 9/17 @CHC Thu 9/18 @CHC Fri 9/19 @CIN Sat 9/20 @CIN Sun 9/21 @CIN Tue 9/23 vPIT Wed 9/24 vPIT Thu 9/25 vPIT Fri 9/26 vCHI Sat 9/27 vCHI Sun 9/28 vCHI	Sabathia Sheets Parra Bush Suppan Sabathia Sheets Parra Suppan Sabathia Sheets Parra (5) Suppan Sabathia (5) Sheets (5) Parra Bush (15) Suppan (5) Sabathia Sheets Parra Bush Suppan Sabathia Sheets Parra Bush Suppan Sabathia Sheets Parra (5) Suppan Sabathia Sheets Parra Suppan Sabathia Sheets Parra Bush (14) Suppan (5) Sabathia	Sabathia Sheets Parra Bush Suppan Sabathia Sheets Parra Suppan Sabathia Bush (7) Sheets (6) Parra (6) Sabathia (5) Suppan (7) Bush (6) Sheets (5) Parra (5) Sabathia Suppan Bush Sheets Parra Sabathia Suppan Bush Sheets Parra Sabathia Suppan Sheets Parra Sabathia Suppan Bush (9) Sheets Sabathia Suppan Bush Sheets Parra (9) Sabathia	Sabathia Sheets Parra Bush Suppan Sabathia Sheets Parra Bush (5) Suppan (5) McClung (?) Sabathia (7) Sheets (7) Parra (8) Bush (7) Suppan (7) Sabathia (5) Sheets (5) Parra Bush Suppan Sabathia Sheets Parra Bush Suppan Sabathia Sheets Parra Bush Sabathia Sheets Parra Suppan (8) Bush (5) Sabathia Sheets (5) Suppan Bush Sabathia Parra (8) Sheets

This improves our matchups for almost every big series for the rest of the season and doesn't reduce the number of starts by Sabathia or Sheets. I think I like it if it's what Yost has up his sleaves.

EDIT: Added a second "secret" scenario based off TauPentaRei's suggestion. Also edited the 1st "secret" scenario to get Parra in the final series against the Cubs (not sure if I like having him with that many days off though...). I like TauPentaRei's idea, but it does cut off one start for Sabathia...

[Oldcity]

I love the "top secret rotation" term.

 

I'm not sure I'd like Sabathia and Sheets pitching on 5 days every time no matter what, only because they tend to throw more innings. The concern is more for Sheets than Sabathia I admit. Sheets' last start came on six days rest (you decide if it was this, the Nats' offense or just coincidence for Ben turning it around).

 

If the Brewers can open up a bit of a lead on the wildcard over the next couple weeks it might give them the luxury to rest someone here and there. I'm concerned about Parra's innings as well.

[TauPentaRei]

I am convinced that...

 

8/22 - Bush

8/23 - Suppan

8/24 - McClung

 

...at home against the Pirates will occur.

 

Putting CC and Ben 1 - 2 (on 7 rest) for the STL series, and again 1 - 2 (on 5 rest) at Wrigley 6 series later.

[joshjs]

brewerfan82: Some really good thinking. I hope you're close.

[igor67]

You have good flexibility at the end of the season too if the last game against the Cubs is meaningless you can hold CC pitch Mclung and have CC and Sheets go 1-2 to start the playoffs.

[nate82]

You have good flexibility at the end of the season too if the last game against the Cubs is meaningless you can hold CC pitch Mclung and have CC and Sheets go 1-2 to start the playoffs.

Even if it is close and the Brewers have the Wild Card locked down and are playing the Cubs for the division I still say you go with McClung, Bush, Suppan against the Cubs in the final series. I would rather have Sheets and Sabathia for the playoffs in game one and game two of the playoffs over Sheets and Sabathia playing against the Cubs.

 

[dadofandrew]

The point would be to get them more starts, not fewer or versus certain teams.

[bobskube]

With Gallardo being ok'd to throw off the mound today, could he be involved in these scenarios?

[nate82]

With Gallardo being ok'd to throw off the mound today, could he be involved in these scenarios?

Not as a starter. I believe Gallardo if he returns this year he will be pitching from the bullpen.

 

[rluzinski]

I'd rather just forget about trying to get Sheets and/or Sabathia to pitch in the St Louis series and skip Suppan three times. Gives CC, Sheets and Parra each an extra start. CC and Sheets could still pitch against the Cubs twice. My hope is that Sheets wouldn't have to make that last start in game #162, though.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'd rather just forget about trying to get Sheets and/or Sabathia to pitch in the St Louis series and skip Suppan three times. Gives CC, Sheets and Parra each an extra start. CC and Sheets could still pitch against the Cubs twice. My hope is that Sheets wouldn't have to make that last start in game #162, though.

I agree. All we have to do against St. Louis is take 1 out of those 2 games and no ground is gained upon us. Winning both would be nice, but 1 out of 2 avoids the disaster and we can do that without Sheets and C.C. Keeping them on normal routine is imperative in my opinion. When you start messing with routine, that's when bad things happen.

[kilgore37]

I think alot depends on where we stand for the last cub series. I could see Ned throwing some one out there for the final game if we have the wild card locked up in order to set up a cc,sheets,parra rotation in the 1st rd

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't mean to open up Pandora's Box here, but Parra does have an innings limit whether we like it or not. I wouldn't consider 170 innings a hard number, but Brewer management is going to want him healthy for 2009. We are already losing 2 pitchers for sure from the rotation in 2009, and we don't need to lose another one due to mishandling of a pitcher. I am all for pitching Parra if the time calls for it and it's needed for us to get into the playoffs, but if we could skip a start or 2 in there, I wouldn't call it a bad move.

 

Parra is at 132 innngs right now. I believe I counted 9 Parra starts in those equations and assuming he goes 6 innings per start, that's 54 innings which would put him at 186 innings. That number could be potentially higher if he goes deeper into games. I will be curious to see how Brewers management handles this. Since it's been 26 years since we've been in the Postseason, I'm guessing they will ride him out and make a gamble, but it could be a costly one.

[dadofandrew]

Even having them pitch every 5th day, Parra does not pick up a start. with his innings so high, that would be very unlikely anyway.

[jeffy]

I will be curious to see how Brewers management handles this. Since it's been 26 years since we've been in the Postseason, I'm guessing they will ride him out and make a gamble, but it could be a costly one.

 

Not making the playoffs would be costly as well. So saving Parra for next year and gambling on making the playoffs without him making his starts would be a gamble too.

[joepepsi]

I think it should be called "double secret scenarios" instead of "top secret scenarios".

 

I think the best way to control Parra's innings is for Ned to have a quicker hook with him. There's been a few games recently where he's shown some struggle in a late middle inning (5th/6th), then Ned trots him out for the next one and he can't get out of it. I suppose there's a good argument for teaching him to pitch through adversity when tiring, but still, I'd rather he left a game after 6 ip leading 1-0, then be trotted out there for the 7th. (see July 25, 2008 vs. Houston)

[Crew2323]

I think it should be called "double secret scenarios" instead of "top secret scenarios".

Wouldn't "double secret rotation" be better, in that it sounds closer to "double secret probation?"

 

[mkesportscom]

August 13 CC

August 14 Sheets

August 15 Parra

August 16 Bush

August 17 Suppan

August 18 CC

August 19 Sheets

August 20 Parra

August 21 Off-Day

August 22 Bush

August 23 CC

August 24 Sheets

August 25 Off-Day

August 26 Suppan... STL

August 27 Parra ... STL

August 28 Off-Day

August 29 CC

August 30 Sheets

August 31 Bush

September 1 Suppan

September 2 Parra

September 3 CC

September 4 Sheets

September 5 Bush

September 6 Suppan

September 7 Parra

September 8 CC

September 9 Sheets

September 10 Bush

September 11 Suppan

September 12 Parra

September 13 CC

September 14 Sheets

September 15 Off-Day

September 16 Bush... Cubs

September 17 Suppan... Cubs

September 18 CC... Cubs

September 19 Sheets

September 20 Parra

September 21 Bush

September 22 Off-Day

September 23 CC

September 24 Sheets

September 25 Suppan

September 26 Parra... Cubs

September 27 Bush... Cubs

September 28 CC... Cubs (CC if the Brewers playoff status hasn't been determined at that point... otherwise, McClung)

 

CC 10 starts

Sheets 9 starts

Parra 8 starts

Bush 8 starts

Suppan 7 starts

 

The danger in this is you don't know how Parra, Bush, and Suppan will react to an extended rest schedule.

[JohnBriggs12]

As long as their lead over the Cardinals remains 4-5 games, I don't see the point in maninpulating the rotation right now for 2 games with them nor do I believe it makes much sense to be looking ahead 6 weeks.

 

If the playoffs are secured before the final series against the Cubs, you could start DiFelice for all I care just as long as they have the rotation in alignment for the playoffs. You don't want to have to use Sabathia or Sheets the final couple of days if you're already in even if a division title is attainable.

[ecjimg]

I like that he is staying with the "as is" rotation....but Im not on board with Ned's idea of Suppan pitching game one of a short series. Unless Suppan has a great September, of course.

[owbc]

I'm glad he decided to leave the rotation as is. Based on the last month, Sheets would be our #4 and Parra #5, but of course that could quickly change. It just isn't worth messing with things when Suppan could turn out to be our best pitcher down the stretch. The only thing that really matters is that CC gets to face the Cubs both times.

[TauPentaRei]

This has CC and Benny lined up for games 1 & 2 at Wrigley, on 5 days rest each. Me gusta mucho.

 

If I have it right, this also has ol Sheetsypoo penciled in for game #162. I am convinced that game won't determine the playoffs, but if it does I am willing to have a crow barbeque and change my 11-month-old signature during the IGT that day.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

It appears the "Double Secret" Rotation is out the window after last night's game. Maybe Ned is gambling that the high pitch counts can be made up with some upcoming extra rest for the starters. I've updated brewerfan's awesome first post to show what it looks like if Ned just kept them in order.

 

Personally, I would have rather seen Ned yank CC after 7 last night and throw him out there Saturday.

 

Game	Pitcher	Rest
Mon 8/18 vHOU	CC
Tue 8/19 vHOU	Sheets
Wed 8/20 vHOU	Parra
Fri 8/22 vPIT	Bush	5
Sat 8/23 vPIT	Suppan	5
Sun 8/24 vPIT	CC	5
Tue 8/26 @STL	Sheets	6
Wed 8/27 @STL	Parra	6
Fri 8/29 @PIT	Bush	6
Sat 8/30 @PIT	Suppan	6
Sun 8/31 @PIT	CC	6
Mon 9/01 vNYM	Sheets	5
Tue 9/02 vNYM	Parra	5
Wed 9/03 vNYM	Bush	5
Thu 9/04 vSDP	Suppan
Fri 9/05 vSDP	CC
Sat 9/06 vSDP	Sheets
Sun 9/07 vSDP	Parra
Mon 9/08 vCIN	Bush
Tue 9/09 vCIN	Suppan
Wed 9/10 vCIN	CC
Thu 9/11 @PHI	Sheets
Fri 9/12 @PHI	Parra
Sat 9/13 @PHI	Bush
Sun 9/14 @PHI	Suppan
Tue 9/16 @CHC	CC	5
Wed 9/17 @CHC	Sheets	5
Thu 9/18 @CHC	Parra	5
Fri 9/19 @CIN	Bush	5
Sat 9/20 @CIN	Suppan	5
Sun 9/21 @CIN	CC
Tue 9/23 vPIT	Sheets	5
Wed 9/24 vPIT	Parra	5
Thu 9/25 vPIT	Bush	5
Fri 9/26 vCHI	Suppan	5
Sat 9/27 vCHI	CC	5
Sun 9/28 vCHI	Sheets

[rluzinski]

I'm glad he decided to leave the rotation as is. Based on the last month, Sheets would be our #4 and Parra #5, but of course that could quickly change. It just isn't worth messing with things when Suppan could turn out to be our best pitcher down the stretch. The only thing that really matters is that CC gets to face the Cubs both times.

 

That's why teams don't set their rotation off the results of the previous month. Any analysis that labels Sheets as the #4 pitcher isn't even worth considering. I would much prefer CC not pitching in blow out games and picking up an extra start. Same goes for Sheets, if they feel he could handle the extra 7 IP. CC and Sheets are way ahead of the rest of the rotation. It isn't even close.

[steve267268]

The point would be to get them more starts, not fewer or versus certain teams.

i agree with this for a couple of reasons...

1. Messing with a starting pitchers rest cycle can sometimes be a disaster.

2. As already stated, the point is to get Ben and CC as many starts as possible. We are not only fighting against Chicago and St. Louis, but also Philly, New York, and Florida.