Holy Grant Balfour Batman

[danzig6767]

I was just checking boxscores the other day and caught Balfour's name and looked up his numbers, they are silly

 

31 innings

12 hits

14 walks

49 strikeouts

1.39 ERA

0.80 WHIP

.113 BAA

 

Only 12 hits in 31 innings and 49 K's, wow. I remember being very curious and kinda excited when we finally called him up last year. Unfortunately it looked like his nerves got the best of him during his brief call up and i understand why the team felt they couldn't keep using him while in a playoff chase and McClung was a very solid pickup in return. After the trade though, i did wonder if another team in a less pressure situation gave Grant a chance to work out the nerves, if he'd be successful. I didn't envision this though.

 

edit--It does partly go to show how crazy and unpredictable putting together a pen is. We are spending 20 million on Gagne/Riske/Mota/Turnbow this year and a guy like Balfour is nearly free.

[owbc]

While Balfour would have been useful this year, I'll chalk this up as one of those trades where both players needed a change of scenery to be successful. Brewers fans tend to be hard on shaky relievers, so after that especially painful loss to the Diamondbacks, it was unlikely that he would succeed here.

I'm undecided on the best way to set up a bullpen, but it seems like the best practice is to stockpile as many solid arms as possible, both in the majors and in AAA. Despite the Brewers' expensive bullpen this year, we still had replacement level players like Dillard and DeFelice up here for a decent period of time. It seems like you never know what you're going to get with the replacement level players--some of them blow up in your face, some work for a little while, and once in a while you get one who becomes a necessary contributor to the bullpen. The more arms you stockpile, the more chances you get to find something useful.

[pitchleague]

yeah, the Rays are the "early" leaders in the clubhouse on those two trades: they got Balfour and Gross (who, although his total numbers don't indicate so, he has been a great addition to their club and has at least 2 or 3 walk-off or game-tying hits in late innings.) We got McClung, who has had his share of ups and downs, and a minor leaguer. We can't say that the Rays completely won those trades but they look good for now.

 

The entire Rays pen is pretty miraculous if I may so. In addition to Balfour, you've got Percival (1.06 whip, 24 saves), Wheeler (0.90 whip!), Howell (1.19 whip), and then Trevor Miller and Al Reyes, who, stats be darned, are no slouches.

(these stats are not completely up-to-date, as I took them out of this week's Baseball Weekly.)

[BrewCrewForever]

Yeah I to was shocked at how good Balfour has been. I even went as far as to pick him up on my fantasy team. When Percival was injured Balfour was even closing games.

[Fatter than Joey]

After the trade though, i did wonder if another team in a less pressure situation gave Grant a chance to work out the nerves, if he'd be successful. I didn't envision this though.

 

One of the things that really upset me about Yost in 2007 was the way he handled Balfour.

[BrewCrewForever]

Honestly the only thing I remembered about Grant's brief stint as a Brewer was that he couldn't throw strikes.

[dadofandrew]

He was worthless for us last year, but he has put it together nicely. They were not in a situation to be patient, he was out of options, so there's really nothing they could have done.

[TheCrew07]

I didn't post it here, but I posted it on the minor league side earlier this season that I still thought Balfour would have success, his stuff was just too good. I pimped him very hard last year, along with some others, and it didn't work out too well. He got squeezed horribly, it got in his head, and the team certainly didn't stick with him as long as they did Spurling and Aquino... I was pretty unhappy at the time.

 

I'm glad he's doing well, I've been following him all year because I think TB is a good trade partner. The way things worked out I'm okay with McClung though, we needed him as starter, a role Grant wasn't going to fullfill.

 

There was an article I came across recently about relief pitching and how unwise it is to drop large amounts of money on so few innings given the unpredictable nature of a given reliever's stats from year to year. It went through a large number of relievers that were locked up way too early, and while no Brewers mentioned, they should have been. Melvin has been overly aggressive in my opinion locking up mediocre to below average talent all over the field, including the bullpen, he's repeatedly fallen into that trap.

 

I'm unable to locate it now, maybe it was a BBTN, Costas Now, Real Sports, or similar video piece? It wasn't all that long ago.

 

edit. I just saw TLB's post about closers, that's the not piece I'm referring to either.

[Brian the Automator]

It's your classic case of someone finds the right combination and puts it together, much like Turnbow did for us for a while. I'm not wishing it Balfour or anything, but I really wouldn't be shocked if he ends up falling apart again. TB will just have to ride him until he chokes, much like we did with Turnbow. And if he ends up being solid from here on out, it's a classic case of lightning in a bottle. The Brewers have done this on more than one occasion, so I guess I don't feel that bad about letting Balfour go.

[Diskono]

He was worthless for us last year, but he has put it together nicely. They were not in a situation to be patient, he was out of options, so there's really nothing they could have done.

 

He did pitch only 2 2/3 innnings, so its really hard to say. He wasn't good in those 3 games, but I guess that's all that was needed for the Brewers to decide to offload him.

 

I know, hindsight goggles and such...at the time, it did seem that Balfour was not just a clever name.

[Fatter than Joey]

It's your classic case of someone finds the right combination and puts it together, much like Turnbow did for us for a while. I'm not wishing it Balfour or anything, but I really wouldn't be shocked if he ends up falling apart again.

 

I couldn't disagree more.

 

Balfour was a solid yet unspectacular major league level pitcher for the Twins -- and then blew out his arm. He missed all of 2005 and pitched 9 IP of A ball in 2006.

 

In 2007 the Brewers took a shot on him, and he struck out 21 in 11 IP in AA, & 68 in 43 IP at AAA, with a combined WHIP of .92

 

Then he got called up to MLB -- and pitched in 3 games for the Brewers --

 

GM 1 -- Gives up a 3 run jack in a 2-2 game, Brewers lose 5-2.

GM 2 -- Bails out Villy to end the inning -- starts next inning gives up a single & strikes out a batter -- yields to Turnbow who proceeds to put the game out of reach. Brewers Lose

GM 3 -- Gives up 2 BBs and a single to lose a game in the 12th.

 

Yost put Balfour (who hadn't pitched in MLB since 2004), in very high leverage situations. This isn't a case of a pitcher "putting it together" -- it's a case of a pitcher recovering after

a devastating injury.

 

They were not in a situation to be patient, he was out of options, so there's really nothing they could have done.

 

I disagree with this as well -- the Brewers have been patient with pitchers like Wise, Turnbow, Gagne, Mota, etc. plus their bizarre fascination with 13 and 14 pitchers on the rosters, leads me to think that they could have done something. Why Mota continues to pitch with his unified ceiling/basement, and Balfour gets the boot after 4IP with 98+ MPH cheese and some hope of improvement is beyond me.

[Loopee]

FTJ is on fire. I had no idea that was all he was played at the MLB level.

[JJHardy7]

One of the things that really upset me about Yost in 2007 was the way he handled Balfour.

 

FTJ I know we disagreed about the trade when it happened, but I do agree with how Balfour was handled. I don't want to turn this into a bashing Yost thread or anything, but Yost seems to treat his relievers like they're all the same when they come up and in reality guys that have never pitched in the bigs are going to have some nerves the first few times. The perfect opportunity for a young guy/first time in the bigs is in a blowout.

[Tbadder]

I'd much rather have McClung. And next year I'd much, much, much rather have McClung!

[dadofandrew]

I'd much rather have McClung too.

 

As bad as Balfour was in his 3 outings, you're going to keep him around in a playoff race? Hardly.

 

Mota had a very good April and May, a poor stretch, and now has been fine since the all-star break, or just after. He's also throwing 94-96 consistently. There's many contenders that would love to add him. His ceiling is not very high, but he's not going to go without a job either.

[brewjihad]

I'm really confused.

As bad as Balfour was in his 3 outings, you're going to keep him around in a playoff race? Hardly.

 

Mota had a very good April and May, a poor stretch, and now has been fine since the all-star break, or just after. He's also throwing 94-96 consistently. There's many contenders that would love to add him. His ceiling is not very high, but he's not going to go without a job either.

 

Josh Kalk has Balfour's initial average velocity at 95.7, fangraphs has 94.5 average velocity. Mota's is 94.6 on Kalk's pitchfx data and fangraphs number 94.3. Evaluating one pitcher on 3 1/3 innings and giving another a free pass when they have an ERA over 12 for a full month is a double standard of pitcher evaluation.

 

I'm not arguing against Mota, I'm just questioning why you would say you wouldn't want Balfour based on three random outings last season. There's no way we could reasonably conclude anything based on 3 1/3 innings, something that is being proven in Tampa Bay with Balfour right now.

[JohnBriggs12]

Balfour fanned 68 hitters in 43 1/3 innings between Huntsville and Nashville. Those numbers are outstanding. Yost had used Spurling in high leverage situations last year too. The pen just wasn't very deep.

 

Considering his minor league success, his stuff (96-97), they pulled the plug on him awfully fast. At least they got something for him, though right now I'd rather have Balfour.

[BrewCrewRising]

Well chalk up another great debate on this site that I wouldn't thought of on my own. I have to admit I was a bit perturbed when I saw how well Balfour was doing in TB, but then was a bit assuaged by how well McClung was doing as a starter for a while. But I hadn't really thought about true trade value based on historical performance.

 

A quick look at thebaseballcube.com showed me that in the minors Balfour has better numbers in certain peripherals and WHIP and similar numbers in ERA. Each has spent considerable time in the minors:

 

Balfour 10 years in Minors: 3.25 ERA - .56 HR/9 - 3.35BB/9 - 10.12K/9 - 1.18 WHIP

McClung 8 Years in Minors: 3.58 ERA - .47 HR/9 - 4.23 BB/9 - 8.61 K/9 - 1.43 WHIP

 

Majors show similar advantage for Balfour:

 

Balfour 5 Seasons Majors : IP 120.1 - 4.49 ERA - .9 HR/9 - 5.24 BB/9 - 10.77 K/9 - 1.42 WHIP

McClung 5 Seasons Majors : IP 345.2 - 5.73 ERA - 1.30 HR/9 - 5.21 BB/9 - 6.67 K/9 - 1.58 WHIP

 

Looking at those numbers, and seeing how Balfour is able to translate his minor league numbers to success at the major league level more than McClung, I also find myself wondering why they didn't give Balfour another chance, or at least as much of a chance as they did other RP. Or why they traded for Linebrink when he wasn't having a great season in SD.

 

The only thing I see in the numbers and other records that gives McClung a bit of an advantage is that Balfour has more of an injury history than McClung. Balfour has only been able to pitch 120 major league innings in 13 seasons as a player, where as McClung has been able to get more innings out of his big league seasons (though not with huge success).

 

Or else (and I'm being conspiracy minded and non-objective here) Ned told Melvin that Balfour just didn't have it and recommended he be traded. All in all, I just don't always understand Melvin's moves.

 

I'm happy enough with McClung now, but I'd rather have Balfour RIGHT NOW. Though I have to admit I don't know how we would have handled those games where he gave us some great starts.

[gregmag]

McClung has done a lot to stabilize the back of the rotation for us this year. That's an area that has sunk some promising Brewers teams in recent years. Balfour's success is impressive, but I'd rather have McClung. In any event, the trade represents a pretty nice job of getting something useful when selling low.

 

The Gross trade, OTOH, I still can't figure out.

 

Greg.

[RU Rah Rah]

The Gross trade, OTOH, I still can't figure out.

Not to comment one way or the other on the deal, but I swear that Gross has been featured in half the Rays highlights I have seen this season. He's had some big hits for them, although is overall numbers are not exactly eye-popping (OPS+ of 101). 8 HR in 171 AB, SLG of .433.

 

[dadofandrew]

I'd love to have Balfour this year. Last year, however, you can only give a guy so many games and then let him go elsewhere. If he would have had options, they'd still him, I s'pose.

 

Greg makes a fine point about McClung. Many teams have 30 outings a year that equal a 6+ ERA, as that's why guys with a 5.50 ERA have value. Seth has been much better than that.

[homer]

I agree Al, but I wouldn't quantify "so many games" as three.

[dadofandrew]

People around here want to release guys after one.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Middle of a race, bring up a guy from AAA, and he's horrible, can't throw strikes, gives up shots, he's gone. This isn't rocket science. The problem was, he was out of options.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well you just described Guillermo Mota, who was retained, and is out of options. Guess it is rocket science.

[istanbultaye]

Mota wasn't called up from AAA, and he pitched decent to well to start the season before going on a somewhat extended slump which he seems to be out of now.

 

As far as the reason for the Gabe Gross trade, wasn't he traded to clear a 25/40 man roster spot when Cameron came back as well as to give him a shot at more playing time than he would be able to get as a Brewer?

 

Regarding Balfour vs. McClung, sure the success he's had this year makes Grant a guy who would've been desirable in our bullpen this year, but he really hasn't got starter capability from a stamina standpoint it seems, since he hasn't had a shot at starting in quite awhile. Therefore, with a bit less statistic success (WHIP, ERA, K/BB, etc.), McClung I think has actually been more valuable due to his ability to go into the rotation if needed. Really, is 1.50 era for 30 innings worth more than 120 of 4ish? I'd tend to think that the amount of innings brings that 4ish to be a bit ahead of the lower era.