Potential Playoff Rotation; Do we need to wrap up a berth sooner? (Post #1)

[lcbj68c]

The direction of this thread can change, but in the talks about the rotation, there seems to be a discussion over whether Manny Parra or Jeff Suppan would be the #3 pitcher used in the playoffs.

 

My question is this, Do we need to wrap up a playoff berth sooner than we think?

 

If the current rotation plays out, we'd have CC Sabathia going on Saturday (9/27) and Ben Sheets on Sunday (9/28). Typically, the NLDS starts on Wednesday, irregardless of a 1-game playoff, which was used last season. With that, does Sabathia go on 3-days rest to start the NLDS and likewise Sheets on 3-days rest to start game #2. I realize there are a lot of different scenarios, that include perhaps being with striking distance of the Cubs over those final two games and therefore wanting to throw Sheets and Sabathia and win the crown for home field advantage. However, do you think it is much more important to get a little farther ahead in this Wild Card Race and clinch, so that perhaps the rotation can be altered to get them normal rest for the playoffs? DiFelice could get a start somewhere in there? I'm very concerned at this point being only 1/2 to 2 games ahead going into the Cubs series and having to throw Sabathia and Sheets on that Sunday. While the following Wednesday,Thursday won't matter if we don't get in, I'd really hate to pitch them both on 3-days rest.

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

It's way too early and way too much can happen between now and the end of September (rainouts, etc.) to worry about this now. That being said, if we are playing for a playoff berth and need CC and Benny on Sat and Sun they need to pitch and Ned and Maddax will worry about the playoff rotation after they clinch. If we have clinched I would assume they make some adjustments so that CC and Benny pitch games 1 and 2.

[lcbj68c]

I realize that. My question was, should there be a sense of urgency to clinch sooner to avoid this? The likelihood of rain diminishes greatly beyond August 15th as the earth moves towards the autumn equinox. Perhaps set up the rotation different now, and plan to use DiFelice for a day so that perhaps Sheets and Sabathia can pitch Friday, Saturday instead of Saturday, Sunday?

[brewerguy71]

The Brewers have to worry about making the playoffs first. Period. They have the Cardinals, Marlins and Mets all on their heels at this point for that Wild Card spot and there is no guarantee that they will make the playoffs at all.

 

I think that messing with the rotation at this point in the season would be folly. If you start to move things around now and alter players work out routines on off days and switch number of days between starts, Sheets and Parra start to suffer (more than they have in the past month even).

 

Its just way too early to talk about this yet. If we get to mid September and are still in the same situation, then we can talk about this. Even then, I say dont touch a thing because once you do youre fubar. You cant save your best pitchers for certain spots, if you dont make it to those spots.

[lcbj68c]

I agree, but I don't get not talking about it. Heck we talk about the 2009 draft around here already http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[razzzorsharp]

It would be awesome to clinch a berth but if needs be I am ok with sending CC out for 20 Innings on the last day and not have him for the playoffs.

[bullox]

I agree, but I don't get not talking about it. Heck we talk about the 2009 draft around here already http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Because no matter what, the Brewers are going to have picks in the 2009 draft. Talking about the playoffs now is almost like talking about a no-hitter in the 7th inning.

 

[cwolf2012]

If the race is close, I am just fine with sending out CC and Sheets on the last days of the regular season. I also don't really have too much of an issue with sending Parra/Suppan/Bush to start the first game of the NLDS. CC and Sheets would probably pitch games 2 and 3 then, which would also be fine.

[lcbj68c]

bullox wrote:

Because no matter what, the Brewers are going to have picks in the 2009 draft. Talking about the playoffs now is almost like talking about a no-hitter in the 7th inning.

 

 

I get that. But talking about the draft, there are so many if, come, maybe's, yet speculating on playoff rotation due to a rainout is crazy? I dunno, seems hypocritical to talk about one, but the other is off-limits? If you dont want to talk about playoffs because it's a jinx, like a no-hitter in the 7th, I get that. I was just concerned about how the rotation lined up for the playoffs with regard to how it is set-up now, but I guess I am alone.

[TauPentaRei]

Too many variables to forecast. It's like those parachutists that jump out of planes in contests to land on an egg. Everything now is macro-pitchnomics. Micro-rotationomics is next term.

As long as playoff pitching rotations is on the table here... I want to say how pleased I would be to travel to Philly instead of walking into a stacked Webb - Haren - Soft Tossing Lefty Sharpie - XXX - Webb.

The schedule gets super goofy is the near term with the 3 off days flanking 5 games. I would propose that the next Pirates series gets Bush, Suppan, McClung so "the bullets" can line up in In-Bev town on 7 days rest each.

[lcbj68c]

If the race is close, I am just fine with sending out CC and Sheets on the last days of the regular season. I also don't really have too much of an issue with sending Parra/Suppan/Bush to start the first game of the NLDS. CC and Sheets would probably pitch games 2 and 3 then, which would also be fine.

I absolutely love this take and agree and it would not have to juggle the rotation for the regular season. Most likely, we are looking at a road game anyhow, so might as well burn the worst of the 3 in a game that statisically you'd lose anyhow..being on the road.

[rluzinski]

You can line it up so CC gets 11 more starts and still makes his last start on the reg. season on Friday. Sheets can also get 11 starts if needed, with the last start comimg on Sunday. There's a good change that game 162 won't matter, one way or another.

 

That all assumes that Suppan is skipped 3 times, which he should be.

[TauPentaRei]

Sheets can also get 11 starts if needed

 

 

I would rather have Benny's A game for 10 starts than his B game for a rented mule riding 11 starts. Extra recuperation time; it's not like Ben pitched 250 innings last year like CC.

 

I am curious as to what everyone's spreadsheet looks like, becuase I am obsessed with mine.

 

After running it again, I am convinced more than ever that McClung should get a spot start 24-Aug versus Pittsburgh.

 

reason 1: sets up CC and Ben to go in St. Louis on 7 days rest each

reason 2: after each of them starts 3 more times on regular 4 days rest, they would then be scheduled to go in the first 2 games of the Wrigley series - on 5 days rest each

reason 3: (after that series, CC goes on regular 4 @ CIN, while Ben goes on 5 v PIT) - this sets up CC in game #160 and Ben in game #162 v Cubs on regular rest.

 

The only downside - in exchange for pacing their arms - is that they each get 10 starts each instead of 11. I am more than okay with this.

[lcbj68c]

I like this, but in respect to the playoffs question... If Ben goes Sunday in game #162, he can't go in Game #1 nor Game #2, Wed/Thur of the playoffs unless it is Thursday, but on 3 days rest.

[bucks2281]

It's anybody's guess as to how the Brewers would be scheduled in the playoffs. Last year, the NYY-CLE began on Thursday, whereas the other three began on Wednesday. There are several more days off within the NLCS and NLDS, so CC and Sheets can make more starts. If worst comes to worst, and Suppan or Parra have to start Game One, it's not the end of the world. Bottom line, our best case scenario is our series beginning on Thursday, October 2 -- CC or Sheets would be guaranteed to start.

 

But, yes. I hope they can wrap up a berth ASAP. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

It might have to come down to Suppan starting Game 1 if we end up in a Regular Season Tie with one of the Wild Card teams. I believe it then goes into a one game playoff where we'd go with our best pitcher possible which would make him not available in Game 1. I just want to see this team in the playoffs and then I'll take my chances from there.

 

If I had to choose between Parra and Suppan for the #3 starter I'd choose Suppan right now based on these 2 factors:

 

1) Playoff Experience and past success

2) Parra's innings limit

 

Parra is going to be very important for the Brewers in 2009 and the less jeopardy we put on his arm, the better. I wouldn't mind Parra being the 4th starter in the playoffs though, but we'd probably just go with C.C. or Sheets on 3 days rest because they are workhorses.

[Legacy25GT]

Sheets can also get 11 starts if needed

 

 

I would rather have Benny's A game for 10 starts than his B game for a rented mule riding 11 starts. Extra recuperation time; it's not like Ben pitched 250 innings last year like CC.

 

I am curious as to what everyone's spreadsheet looks like, becuase I am obsessed with mine.

 

After running it again, I am convinced more than ever that McClung should get a spot start 24-Aug versus Pittsburgh.

 

reason 1: sets up CC and Ben to go in St. Louis on 7 days rest each

reason 2: after each of them starts 3 more times on regular 4 days rest, they would then be scheduled to go in the first 2 games of the Wrigley series - on 5 days rest each

reason 3: (after that series, CC goes on regular 4 @ CIN, while Ben goes on 5 v PIT) - this sets up CC in game #160 and Ben in game #162 v Cubs on regular rest.

 

The only downside - in exchange for pacing their arms - is that they each get 10 starts each instead of 11. I am more than okay with this.

 

I absolutely agree with this. CC and Ben getting one less start still has value since they'll get must needed end of the season rest, which could produce better outing in the other 10 starts. In fact if they do what you suggest, they shoudl be able to get CC and Sheets playing at least 5 of their remaining 10 games against contender (Cards, Mets, Phillies, and Cubs twice). I'd like to see the end of the season play out like this

 

@Chicago - Sabathia

@Chicago - Sheets

@Chicago - Parra

@ Cincinatti - Bush

@ Cincinatti - Suppan

@ Cincinatti - Sabathia

Off Day

Pittsburgh - Sheets

Pittsburgh - Parra

Pittsburgh - Bush

Chicago - Sabathia

Chicago - Suppan

Chicago - Sheets

 

Then game 1 of the playoffs on wednesday can be started by Sabathia on 4 days rest. If game 2 falls on Thursday, you can go Parra on 7 days rest, and then game 3 on saturday would be Sheets on 5 days rest. If game 2 falls on Friday, you can go Sheets on 4 days rest, and game 3 on sunday would be Parra on 10 days rest.

[InsomniacInkRoss]

I think we should rest Sabathia right now and save him for Game 4

[TooLiveBrew]

In fact if they do what you suggest, they shoudl be able to get CC and Sheets playing at least 5 of their remaining 10 games against contender (Cards, Mets, Phillies, and Cubs twice). I'd like to see the end of the season play out like this

 

I recall Yost saying last week that he'd filled out his SP 'map' with those Cubs & Cards series in mind. I assume he & Maddux/Simmons/etc. have got their eyes very sharply trained on our highest-leverage series that remain.

[rluzinski]

There's a very good chance that game #162 won't even matter, so I wouldn't worry about Sheets penciled in there.

 

And I don't see the problem CC or Sheets pitching every 5 days for the rest of the year. A CC start over Suppan is like 1.5 runs!

[southpaw121505]

Most likely, we are looking at a road game anyhow, so might as well burn the worst of the 3 in a game that statisically you'd lose anyhow..being on the road.

This I don't agree with at all. I want CC and Sheets going the first two games because you're going to have to win a road game to win the series. I'd rather have Suppan and Parra at home and CC and Sheets on the road with CC then coming back for a potential game 5.

 

With that said, I agree that first thing first, clinch a spot and make the play-offs, then go from there. BUT, if we do get a comfortable lead I'm all for doing what we have to do to ensure CC and Sheets throw out of the gates in the post-season.