90 Wins

[yount19.u]

As of right now, the Brewers are on pace to win 90 games this year. At the beginning of the season, I think most would have said that would be enough to get the wild card and likely the division. Right now I'm not so sure. The Cards refuse to cool down and the Marlins are lurking. I have a feeling it will be more like 91-93 wins to get the wild card and 95-97 for the division. Does anyone have the percentages for the number of wins it will take to win the division and wild card this year?

[rluzinski]

I think you are right that 90 wins is probably not going to do it. If you adjust for the Brewers' stength of schedule, they are on pace for something closer to 91 or 92 wins.

 

Baseball Prospectus has their playoff Odds Report ( PECOTA), which pegs the Brewers for 91 wins and NL wilcard winner for an average of 91.6 wins. Their sim has the Brewers winning the wilcard about 57% of the time and the division 13.5%.

 

93 wins and the Brewers Would be in great shape.

[yount19.u]

^^^^Thanks, that is exactly what I was looking for. Hopefully this so-called easy remaining schedule gets them over that hump.

[brewerguy71]

Ive got them at 88 as of now. Tied with the Mets and Cardinals for the Wild Card (depending on how each team plays today).

 

Phillies and Cubs both 93 wins.

[joepepsi]

The Brewers have been better than the Cubs and Cards since the debacle in Boston.

Brews: 44-27; .620

Cubs:: 42-29; .592

Cards: 38-32; .543

 

These percentages have held pretty steady through the summer. The Brewers and Cubs both have 47 games remaining. The Cardinals are at a slight disadvantage since they have one more loss than the Brewers and "only" 46 games left. If they play these percentages out, here's the standings at the end of the season:

Cubbs: 97-65

Brews: 93-69

Cards: 89-73

 

edit: oops, my pct for the Cubs was wrong when originally posted. Fixed it now.

[Chio151]

93 wins and I would be ecstatic. No complaints there.

[Oldcity]

Honestly, if the Brewers win 90 wins and miss the playoffs, I'd chalk it up to bad luck. That's been more than enough to get in in recent years in the NL, and I didn't expect any more than 90 this season.

[joepepsi]

Honestly, if the Brewers win 90 wins and miss the playoffs, I'd chalk it up to bad luck. That's been more than enough to get in in recent years in the NL, and I didn't expect any more than 90 this season.

The other night my wife and I were out with a group of friends. Discussion floated around to the Brewers and I made the comment they were the best team in the league since mid-May. My wife turned to me and said, "really? I didn't know that. With all the [deleted by mod] and moanin' I hear about them, I thought they were pretty bad." I tell ya, it's tough to be a fan of a competitive team: you're more likely to complain and live and die with each game. After all these dismal decades of horrible baseball, it's important to step back every few days this summer and remind ourselves what a great season this has been.

 

 

(edit: language --1992)

[TooLiveBrew]

Ive got them at 88 as of now. Tied with the Mets and Cardinals for the Wild Card (depending on how each team plays today).

 

Phillies and Cubs both 93 wins.

 

Is this a guess, an educated guesstimate, or would you share how you arrived at this? I'm not baiting you... just curious.

[kmcasper23]

I think 90 wins would get them the Wild Card. I think the Cards and the Marlins will eventually level out and both will end up around 83-86 wins. I think the Mets and Phillies will both end up with about 88 wins leaving the Brewers as the wild card with 90 wins and the Cubs will probably win 94 to take the division in my opinion.

[owbc]

# of wins vs. historical chance of making the playoffs (approximate)

 

88: 30%

89: 45%

90: 55%

91: 70%

92: 80%

93: 85%

94: 90%

95: 95%

 

So there is clearly great value in winning a few extra games (say 93 vs 90). The biggest jump is from 90 to 91.

 

If the Brewers want to win the WC, 91-92 wins would historically get them in, while 89-90 is a 50/50 chance. Thus, those few extra wins are what could pull the Brewers away from the pack of the Phillies/Mets/Marlins/Cardinals. This is why the CC Sabathia deal was such a good idea. If the Brewers win 92 games and CC was worth 3-4 extra wins, you could say that CC doubled the Brewers chance of making the playoffs.

 

Secondly, the Brewers have the added advantage of the Mets/Marlins/Phillies being in a group with similar records. If one team gets hot and pulls away, it doesn't matter if they finish with a better record than the Brewers. Having two teams get hot and race to the finish is much more unlikely.

 

Basically, win 92 and hope the Cardinals don't get hot and we're in.

[bucks2281]

Games remaining against Washington & San Diego:

 

Milwaukee: 11 (8 at home)

St. Louis: 0

 

That's big, IMO. If the Brewers play well enough against those teams, that's the difference between the Brewers and Cardinals. And those wins are likely to boost the Brewers into the 90 win range. With that schedule, it's very possible that the Brewers could finish at least 26-21.

 

Phillies and Cubs both 93 wins.

Chicago can easily win 93 games. Philadelphia currently stands at 62-52. If they won 93 games, they'd be 24 games over .500. I can't see the Phillies finishing the season 31-17.

 

Don't bank on the Marlins and Mets both winning 90 games. Mets are only 6 games over .500, and the Marlins are only 7 games over. It's a stretch that even one would play 11-12 over .500 the rest of the year. At least one of the wild card contenders is bound to slip up at some point.

[BrewCityUnit]

I think 86 wins will be enough to win the wild card....just my opinion, but I don't think anyone other than the Brewers and Cubs will be 10 games over .500 by the end of the year in the NL

[joepepsi]

If the Brewers want to win the WC, 91-92 wins would historically get them in, while 89-90 is a 50/50 chance. Thus, those few extra wins are what could pull the Brewers away from the pack of the Phillies/Mets/Marlins/Cardinals. This is why the CC Sabathia deal was such a good idea. If the Brewers win 92 games and CC was worth 3-4 extra wins, you could say that CC doubled the Brewers chance of making the playoffs.

Thanks for those numbers. I'll have to save them. They point out the value in a playoff hopeful team paying $10 million or more for a reliable closer. Paying big bucks for someone like Cordero or Billy Wagner doesn't make sense when the team is aiming for a .500 record. But when you have a shot at the playoffs, that it's worth the money for a closer who only blows 5 leads vs. one who blows 7-9.

 

[InBraunWeTrust]

So long as we can take the series that we should, I think we are fairly reliably in line for the Wild Card. The Mets are falling back to Earth and do not appear to have the steam to make a run for it. The Marlins and Phillies are good, but I just don't see the wild card coming from there. The Phillies have spotty pitching, a recently unreliable bullpen, and major consistency issues with their hitting.

 

The Cards have a tough stretch of games coming up - 3 @ Chicago, then 4 @ Florida. We have the Nationals and Padres. If we lived in Shouldland, we'd be 3 or 4 games up at the end of next week. I just don't see how they can win the wild card with their bullpen. If we do not win the wild card, however, they will be the team that does. I suppose just to ice the proverbial Brewers cake, we'll have to take one of the games in the last series against the Cubs, but again be swept and hand over the Wild Card to the summarily-swept Cardinals.

[TooLiveBrew]

After all these dismal decades of horrible baseball, it's important to step back every few days this summer and remind ourselves what a great season this has been.

 

Great thought, joepepsi. I know I get tied up in that desire to see the Brewers win... I try to not let it affect my enjoyment of the season, but the expectations this year are the highest they've been since I can vividly recall. The team has played well this season, and I do my best to step back & enjoy it as a whole.

 

 

The Marlins and Phillies are good, but I just don't see the wild card coming from there. The Phillies have spotty pitching, a recently unreliable bullpen, and major consistency issues with their hittings, so I think the Marlins will eventually eke out that division.

 

August will probably sort out the serious contenders, and especially in the East. The Marlins' bullpen has logged a ton of innings, and I don't think their pitching staff as a whole is any better than Philly's. The Phils are the team I think will take the East, but I certainly can't write off the Mets or Fish just yet. Atlanta has certainly fallen out of contention, and soon another team probably will.

 

I don't think there's anyone that can be written off yet from PHI/STL/FLA/NYM, but I do think that the Brewers' talent level, combined with the surprisingly soft August schedule, gives Milwaukee an edge over those four teams.

[brewerguy71]

To answer your question 2live, just guesses, nothing mathematical. Looking at each teams schedule and figuring how many games each team should win in each series and then adding them up. Generally its 2 of 3 at home and 1 of 3 on the road, unless there is a special circumstance such as playing a last place team, or having a very tough series at home (such as the Mets series for us in September).

 

After yesterday I have the Brewers/Mets tying for the Wild Card, Cards dropping off a game, and the Marlins gaining.

 

I think the issue for the Brewers will be winning the games on the road this month. They have looked nice so far, but the end of August is a long way off, and that road starts to take a toll this late in the season. Talent sometimes takes a back seat in August as baseball history has shown. I think the other big issue will be the adding of innings to Sheets and Parra's arms. They are both starting to tire and if you cant rely on both of them like you did earlier in the year it will be another disappointing late September for the Brewers. On offense I like the Reyes/Wright/Beltran trio over Braun/Fielder/Hart, Delgado/Hardy cancel each other out, imo, because of their streakiness, but they could tip the scales with a hot streak.

 

The Marlins and Cards just dont want to get out of it yet, and if they keep it up, its going to make it very difficult for the Brewers and Mets down the stretch. After 26 years of Brewer baseball, its kind of hard to believe they have what it takes to pull it off this year. One of these teams will get bumped and they wont have any control over it.

[rluzinski]

I think 86 wins will be enough to win the wild card....just my opinion, but I don't think anyone other than the Brewers and Cubs will be 10 games over .500 by the end of the year in the NL

 

I'd love to take that bet. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[BrewCityUnit]

Your on rluz....If I could back track, I would say that 86 wins will win the wild card (the East division winner might have more than 86 wins) but I will stick to my prediction.

[rluzinski]

OK BCU, I'll bet you a $20 donation to Brewerfan.net that the wildcard runner up will have 86 or more wins. Deal?

 

It's a win/win for me, since if you are right, it would almost HAVE to be the Brewers. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[BrewCityUnit]

Sounds like a good cause rluz...your on http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[pebadger]

Given the way just about every contender gets a full dose of other contenders coming down the stretch, it's hard to say what the "number" will need to be in terms of the wildcard, but it is an interesting question. Provided the Brewers play reasonably well, someone may need to get hot to pass them up. Not saying that can't or won't happen (and if it does the Brewers could be in trouble). I wouldn't be surprised if the number is in the 80s, but I have a feeling someone will get hot and take the thing by a margin that belies how good the race really was.