8/8/08 Nationals (Balester) at Brewers (Sabathia): 7:05 PM CDT

[rluzinski]

Vegas gives the Brewers about a 74% of winning this one. It doesn't get much more lopsided than that and the Nats still have a 1 in 4 shot of winning. 26% chance of BF.net falling into mass chaos for about the 20th time this season.

 

Considering those Vegas odds and the pitching matchups, here's my very rough guesses at the win probabilities for 4 games this series:

 

74%, 72%, 68%, 63%

 

Do those look reasonable? That results in these series probabilities:

 

swept: 1%

win 1: 8%

win 2: 27%

win 3: 41%

sweep: 23%

 

Those are some crazy good odds for the Brewers and the Nats still have about a 1 in 3 shot chance of splitting or winning the series. Of course, that means the Brewers have a 2 in 3 shot at winning the 4 game set.

[fondybrewfan]

Win you idiots or I will boycott all broadcasts until Saturday and all attendance until Sunday!!!!!

 

I just can't bring myself to think that we won't win this game. But knowing that we will be losing 5-0 in the 3rd inning and I'll have to turn off the TV and to sporadically check Gameday just to make sure we didn't make a comeback.

[eanelson4]

But knowing that we will be losing 5-0 in the 3rd inning and I'll have to turn off the TV and to sporadically check Gameday just to make sure we didn't make a comeback.

This is the exact approach I take when we are having one of those "2-hit against a guy w/ an ERA over 6" games. I just can't stand to watch how painful it is sometimes.

[TooLiveBrew]

J/K Wibadgers23. Great job on the stats!

Agreed, Wi23. No one can woogie except for woogie himself. Your IGT lead is a great & informative post. I'd like to think the game logs on Balester will lead to less, 'OMG why do we always suck against crappy pitchers!' stuff, but sadly I think I know better than to expect that.

Balester's results so far have been pretty solid. No BBs against that Phillies lineup is pretty impressive. Utley took him deep after Rollins had singled, and then Howard followed with his only hit of the night (single), but aside from that Collin scattered the remaining 3 hits & didn't flinch. Geoff Jenkins went 0-4 against him with 2 whiffs... ahhh Geoff! Clearly Manny Acta is being careful with Balester's pitch count, and wisely so.

I don't know about his stuff, but his production in the minors was very impressive. Right around 2.6 BB/9 & 7 K/9 for the most part (jumping levels saw his rates spike, but that's to be expected a bit). This is a former 4th-round pick for the team (still the Expos then) who has taken a nice, steady (not slow) 4+ year road to MLB. From the looks of his numbers, I think we're facing a solid RHP tonight. Good thing Prince is hot. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

How far the mighty have fallen. Two years ago, this guy was one of the top prospects in the Bush administration, and now look at him! Playing shortstop for the Nationals...

Is your team any good, Mr Gonzalez?
I don't recall.
Was there a time when your team was good, Mr. Gonzalez?
My memory is unclear on that one.
Did your organization ever condone playing for the Nationals?
I don't recall.

Brilliant! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[TauPentaRei]

26% chance of BF.net falling into mass chaos for about the 20th time this season.

http://www.pubdef.net/uploaded_images/lu_10_barricades-762294.jpg

Moderators, are you geared up and ready?

[Bring Back the Stein]

The odds are Rusch-like, and we remember what happened there. Man, I need a Braun-type slapdown, because I still feel doom walking around as a Brewers fan.

[And That]

Moderators, are you geared up and ready?

Not defensive, offensive!

http://lbegley.googlepages.com/banhammer.jpg

 

[sargennm]

It's a good thing he have the ban hammer and the riot squad in here. Guess who's starting at third again?

 

2B Rickie Weeks

SS JJ Hardy

LF Ryan Braun

1B Prince Fielder

RF Corey Hart

3B Craig Counsell

CF Mike Cameron

C Jason Kendall

P CC Sabathia

[GoudaBrew]

Did Russell Branyan drink Ned Yost's coffee or something?

[JET15]

It's a good thing he have the ban hammer and the riot squad in here. Guess who's starting at third again?

 

2B Rickie Weeks

SS JJ Hardy

LF Ryan Braun

1B Prince Fielder

RF Corey Hart

3B Craig Counsell

CF Mike Cameron

C Jason Kendall

P CC Sabathia

And hitting 6th.

Good grief

 

[Not that I don't like Craig, I just like him for what he can do... not more than than he's capable of, like Yost.]

[TauPentaRei]

Free Mike Rivera!

 

Encage Craig Counsell!

[davemakovec]

If we're hurting that bad for a lefty third baseman who's not Branyan, why not call up Gamel and give him a shot? I know there are roster concerns, but seriously. At the very least don't bat him sixth.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If I'm Rivera or Branyan, I take a vacation and see if anyone on the team even notices

 

25-man roster Ned....it helps to use 'em all during a 162-game season

[JET15]

Geez, it's only 4pm and I'm anxious to drink a cold one and watch the game.

[jhart05]

Personally I like Counsell. Do I think he should be starting every day? Well no, but for whatever reason he currently is right now. Probably just a temporary thing. I don't think it's that big of a deal thou. I'll root for whomever is in a Brewer uniform these days.

 

At least we can get back to Brewer baseball and not have to listen to any more Favre garbage for these three hours. I can't take anymore Packer crap.

 

If they talk about him at all on the radio or TV tonight during the Brewer game, I believe I will throw up. Which would suck, because I have a nice piece of trout waiting for dinner tonight. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Football season doesn't start for me, 'till the last Brewers out of the season!!! (Which hopefully won't come 'till late October.)

 

 

 

GO CREW!!!

 

Heck...GO ANYTHING non-Packers/Favre!!!

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

i really wonder whats going on with branyan and hall not playing much of late. is there some untold injuries out there that the brewers are hiding or is Counsell Neds love child ?

[markedman5]

Does Ned know the 3rd baseman doesn't have to hit sixth?

[Darnell Junior]

Ned coaches by instinct and guts, not by reason or statistics.

 

Bold Predictions:

1. Two Brewers will have 4 hits

2. XBH, rbi and 8 innings for Carsten Charles

3. Craig Counsell with a sleazy double down the first base line, ensuring his spot in the starting lineup for the next 3-4 games.

 

A small side note: Why doesn't the opposing teams first baseman literally straddle the foul line when counsell is up? I don't understand.

[crewcrazy]

How'd you like to be Mike Cameron right now? He's been white hot so far in August, and he's stuck hitting between Craig Counsell and Jason Kendall. Yikes.

[uecker9]

The last 2 games every player reached, except the pitcher and Counsell. Tonight they break the trend, CC will get a hit. Do I need to specify which CC?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif

[rluzinski]

I just wish someone in the media would at least ask for Yost's rationale for starting Counsell at 3B on a regular basis. I just want to hear him say "quality AB" one time, so I can puncture my frontal lobe with the claw of a carpenters' hammer and put myself out of my misery.

 

And no, I don't have some hatred for Counsell. I just think he's a very bad option to play 3B.

[sheethead]

I think its Ned's way of sticking it to the Anti-Ned nation. The pro-Yosters wouldn't care if Counsell started the rest of the year, because if you're not anti-Yost by now you never will be.

 

Well Ned, it worked for me. I hate you.

[DougJones43]

Ned is a bird-brain. I wish he'd been fired after the Boston series. There is no excuse to keep using Counsell at 3B - batting sixth no less. I really want to know why Branyan is being benched.

 

Things would be somewhat brighter for this team looking forward if somebody else was in charge. Whatever though. Go Crew.

[Loopee]

Good lord.....Counsell playing over Branyan and in the 6 hole.

 

Weeks leading off...

 

Complete and utter lunacy.

[jhart05]

YES!!!

 

Baseball is back.

 

Go Crew!!!