Cards Vs. Cubs: Who Should We Root For?

[rluzinski]

The way I look at it is like this....when playing blackjack, and you get dealt a blackjack and the dealer turns up an ace....do you buy insurance? I don't.

 

I don't because it's statistically the wrong thing to do. It's a sucker's bet. But it only takes one guy to not know the odds to make Vegas some money.

[strawbossisevil]

Probably because the Cardinals are not a bad team themselves. Yeah, if we played the rest of the season out 100 times, we'd probably win the majority of them. But the Cards are good enough to get on a hot streak and overtake us (especially if Carpenter can be anything like his old self).

 

Maybe its a defeatest attitude to think that we can't catch the Cubs unless the lose to the Cards. Thinking positively, if we are the best team in the division we should welcome the challenge.

[logan82]

I don't know why Tim and Sparky would think cheering for either would be a winning attitude. Seems to me a winning attitude would mean that you don't care what either team does because you have confidence in your own abilities.

 

I know we should be cheering for the Cards to lose all of their games because burying the Cards is our best chance to get in, but I just cannot cheer for the Cubs. Any of the teams within 4-5 games of us in the wild card could easily get hot and overtake us even if we finish the year strong. I am not going to worry about it until maybe the end of the year. I am just enjoying winning baseball right now.

[BrewCityUnit]

I was going to start a seperate thread, but I know it will probably get locked, but I'm just curious...who should we root for the Cubs or Braves? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[bucks2281]

BCU, I'm really not as confident as you are that the Brewers are a lock to make the playoffs. Clearly, the Brewers are the second-best team in the National League, but I watched the Rockies last year. Any team below the Brewers, including the Brewers, could pull off an absurd winning streak during the last week of September. Every time St. Louis loses, even to the Cubs, the Brewers increase their playoff chances. Gaining ground in the division is just an added perk.

 

And, as for Tim and Sparky -- I absolutely wouldn't call it a defeatist attitude. That's extreme. Those two guys are huge Brewer fans, and they would probably do anything to see postseason baseball. So, I don't know why it's terrible that we're cheering for the Brewers to increase their playoff odds. The Cubs are a very good baseball team, and I don't expect the Brewers to win the division, so I'll take the Wild Card -- it's not a backdoor route to the postseason. Winning the NL West is a backdoor route to the postseason.

[endaround]

I was going to start a seperate thread, but I know it will probably get locked, but I'm just curious...who should we root for the Cubs or Braves? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Do you understand the point of all this? Its what increases the Brewer's odds of reaching the postseason. The Braves losing doesn't increase them, the Braves winning does.Just like the Cubs winning did yesterday.

 

[Invader3K]

I prefer Homer on 540 AM's mentality about it, in thinking of the Wild Card "division" as a fourth division in each league. Yes, it's sort of a false premise, but it other ways it makes sense if you simply figure the top five or six wild card contenders make up that "division."

[TauPentaRei]

Winning the NL West is a backdoor route to the postseason.

58 - 59 LA Dodgers... 47.5% to take the division

 

58 - 59 Houston Astros... 00.1% to take the division

 

Criminy.

 

[rluzinski]

I think it's just silly that many baseball fans still view the wildcard as some shameful way of making the post season. The Brewers may win the wildcard with 93 wins, while the DBacks might win their division with 81. Yout ell me which team should be more proud of their regular season accomlishments.

[Fear The Chorizo]

With the Cards now 3 behind the Brewers, heading to Florida for 4 games while Milwaukee plays the Nats and Padres, and with Carpenter apparently back on the shelf, it's looking likely that their goose is cooked. They can still go on a run, but they've shown that they've been unable to consistently win against good teams. Their schedule doesn't include many gimmie series down the stretch, so I don't see them putting any pressure on the division or wild card leaders.

 

I'm rooting for the Marlins to bury the Cards, then give the Cubs all they can handle. I think it's safe to root for the Braves to beat the Cubs as much as possible, too. I'm all for winning the wild card, but if the Brewers win today they could very likely be closer to overtaking the Cubs than giving up the wildcard lead to any of the teams chasing them.

[lukevan]

After saying that I would be rooting against the Cards, I couldn't help but root against the Cubs last night once the game started. I'm sorry if my rooting damaged our playoff chances.

[BrewCityUnit]

Do you understand the point of all this? Its what increases the Brewer's odds of reaching the postseason. The Braves losing doesn't increase them, the Braves winning does.Just like the Cubs winning did yesterday.

 

Actually the Braves losing should increase the chances of us making the playoffs...we would gain a game on a team that is below us in the wild card standings.

 

I want to make the playoffs just as badly as anyone else on this site, but at the same time I want to have the best chance of reaching the World Series and to me that best chance is to win our division, so that is what I am going to root for. I am not worried about St. Louis at all, that is not a playoff team in my opinion. With our favorable schedule down the stretch, I do not see a scenario where we don't reach the playoffs. I am going to just sit back and enjoy us chipping away at the Cubs division lead.

[LUKE232323]

The Braves only have a 1.5% chance of the playoffs today, so I don't really see how you can equate hoping the Cardinals lose to the Cubs with hoping the Braves lose to the Cubs. Cardinals going into the Cubs series had an over 30% playoff shot.

 

I guess I see both arguments, but in the end, making the playoffs overall is my #1 concern, playoff positioning after that is secondary.

[And That]

Actually the Braves losing should increase the chances of us making the playoffs...we would gain a game on a team that is below us in the wild card standings.

False. The Braves chances of making the playoffs are so slim that a loss might move them from a 1.01% shot to a .95% shot. Realistically, they are only still technically involved in the playoff race.

 

On the other hand, the Cubs are legitimate competition for a playoff spot. I'd much rather legitimate competition in front of us lose than a team that has little chance behind us lose.

[endaround]

When the Cards won Saturday the Brewers playoff chances increased by about 0.5%. When the Cubs won yesterday the Brewers playoff chances increased by 3.7%. Like previously said the Braves are basically done so they help the Brewers by winning against a team the Brewers compete against. Its the Cubs/Marlins that will be more interesting to see which would help the Brewers more.

[logan82]

I think it's just silly that many baseball fans still view the wildcard as some shameful way of making the post season.

I don't understand it either. Wild card teams are usually the 2nd best team in a league to make the playoffs every year. A wild card team has made it to the World Series in every year except one since the wild card was first introduced with 2 making it at least once, Pretty much shows that the most important thing about the post season is getting there.

[LUKE232323]

Agreed on the postseason. It's not like the NFL or NBA, where homecourt/homefield is a dominant predictor in who wins the game. It's much easier to get hot and make a run in MLB postseason than any other postseason, by far.

[Leinie Lodge]

Cub wins over Wildcard contenders increase our playoff % chance, logical at this point. However, a Brewer Win produces the largest % gain in our playoff chance. Steady Brewer play, plus a Cubs road swoon at a contender's ballpark, things get REAL tight in a hurry.

So when is it OK to unleash unbridled rooting for Cubs "L" flags????
... gnarling, chomping, gnashing on bit ...

[cwolf2012]

I think as long as the Cubs are not playing the Mets, Phillies, Marlins, or Cardinals, I will 100% root against them. I think the only team that they're playing against that I can really root for them though is whatever team is closest to us in the WC race. Right now, that's the Cards. If the Cards fall apart and the Mets/Marlins start winning, then I'll root for the Cubs only against whoever is higher in the standings.

[statman0007]

I'm all about just making the playoffs, and right now the Cardinals losing helps our cause more than the Cubs winning. I can't believe that anyone would be upset with the Brewers in the playoffs on the Wild Card after the wait that we've had to get back to the playoffs.

[naivin]

I'm all about just making the playoffs, and right now the Cardinals losing helps our cause more than the Cubs winning. I can't believe that anyone would be upset with the Brewers in the playoffs on the Wild Card after the wait that we've had to get back to the playoffs.

Especially if they do so with 90+ wins, and the only reason you aren't going to win the division is because you happen to share a division with the only team in the NL that is better than you (just bad timing/luck). From all appearances, the Cubs are going to keep winning, so it seems to me our chances get better and better if they help take care of the rest of the league for us. I'd love to win the Central, but I'd also be more than happy to worry about the Cubs in October.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Brewers are 3.5 games up on the Cards for the wild card lead

 

Brewers are 3.5 games behind the Cubs for the division lead

 

Now that they're not playing each other, how about we root for both teams to lose?

[fondybrewfan]

But the fact that the Cardinals face the Marlins and the Marlins are also a WC contender has me split about who I want to win. I am nto sure which team has more staying power. I think I will cheer for the Fish though.

[nate82]

But the fact that the Cardinals face the Marlins and the Marlins are also a WC contender has me split about who I want to win. I am nto sure which team has more staying power. I think I will cheer for the Fish though.

The Cardinals have more staying power. The Cardinals only play 3 teams other than the Marlins who have winning records. The Cardinals have 2 games against the Brewers left, 2 against the Cubs 1 home and 1 road series, and Arizona who they play 4 at home and 3 on the road against the Diamondbacks.

 

The Marlins play 5 teams that have a winning record until the end of the year. The Marlins play the Cards again in September, a home series against the Cubs, a road series against Arizona, 2 more against the Mets 1 at home and 1 on the road, and 2 more against the Phillies 1 at home and 1 on the road. The Marlins have a tougher schedule than that of the Cardinals.

 

So cheer for the Marlins this series.

 

[And That]

Postseason Odds

Cardinals: 12.7%

Marlins: 9.4%

 

Games Behind Milwaukee

Cardinals: 3.5

Marlins: 5.5

 

Go Marlins.