Brewer 3B Options For The Rest of The Year

[Fatter than Joey]

As many point out, when you argue batting order, you're arguing semantics.

 

False. C'mon Al you can do better than this. This is not simply a lineup thing -- it's a starter thing as well.

 

There is no right or wrong batting order.

 

Agreed. However there are definitely "more right" or "more wrong" lineups -- Both you and I know this. If you gave me your "best" lineup, I can guarantee I could produce a lineup that would score less runs in a computer simulation. The only reason that Counsell is batting 6th is because that is where Hall/Branyan batted. Counsell potentially getting an AB over Cameron is not giving your team the best chance to win.

 

As I will say for the final time, Counsell is a better defender than Branyan,

 

Ok fine. Is he .300 OPS points better? -- Counsell is a much better defender than Prince as well -- the defense delta between Prince and Counsell is much greater than the delta between Counsell and Branyan. Should we start CC at 1b, and let him bat in Prince's spot (I hope ned isn't reading this).

 

However, as often occurs, I do find it ironic that many insist on saying the team should improve the defense, and then complaining every time they play the better defensive player.

 

I think it would be possible to improve the D w/o resorting to starting a .625 OPS player. If DM can't do this he should be canned.

[phxMILWfan]

I don't see the problem with Counsell playing third against RHP. The line up has enough power to it. I like Counsell in there to take a few pitches, work the count and be a veteran presence. You never know what will happen down the stretch and it's good to keep him involved.

[trwi7]

I like Counsell in there to take a few pitches, work the count and be a veteran presence.

You just described Branyan yet he also has the power aspect working for him.

[TooLiveBrew]

Branyan had a good game again tonight, and his defense was solid. Counsell had the bad Ole! play at 3B Friday night, and in general I think the defensive gap is very much overstated.

[phxMILWfan]

eh... Counsell's Pitches seen per at bat this year 4.08, career 3.99
Branyan this year 3.62, career 4.06

Counsell seeing 1 extra pitch per two at bats, willing to concede this is a dumb thing to prefer Counsell for, I guess it's just personal preference there. I've watched him play between AZ and Milwaukee long enough that I think he's worth putting on the field.

Even if Counsell isn't a better option than Branyan I don't understand the complaining about Counsell, or Yost's playing of Counsell. I don't think he hurts you when he's on the field. It's not like we are throwing Keith Ginter or someone out there. Counsell has been around forever and I see value in having him on the field.

[trwi7]

I don't think he hurts you when he's on the field.

Nobody thinks he hurts the team when he's on the field. Just when he's in the batters box. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[endaround]

Playing Counsell over Branyan is a move that could cost the Brewers a win over the rest of the season , I don't now how you can't make a big deal about it.

[Fatter than Joey]

Nobody thinks he hurts the team when he's on the field. Just when he's in the batters box.

 

Right -- we are talking about a .300 OPS difference.

 

No one is saying CC does not have any value -- I'd rather see his starts happen when Hardy needs a day off, or improve the D of the Weeks/Durham black hole.

[rluzinski]

Choosing to say he is 0-9 and using the tiniest sample available, and then saying Ned should not go with the hot hand...at best, is spinning in circles.

 

What are you trying to say here, that Counsell was and still is hot? That 9 AB doesn't matter (which I agree with)? Personally, I'll just stick with his three year numbers to prove that he is a terrible hitter. Throw in that he'll be 38 this month and it's not hard to see why he's living up to his preseason ZiPS projection of .232/.307/.315/.622.

 

Defense does have value, it is just difficult to measure.

 

I think you need to reread the thread because his defense has been considered and respected throughout. Even the greatest Counsell detractors have recognized that Counsell is easily the superior defender. The question is, is that defensive upgrade at 3B worth .140-.150 points of SLG? That's roughly equal to .050 points of OBP and .050-.060 points of SLG, if you are curious. I just don't see it.

 

I know you've been defending Counsell for the last couple of years but trying to defend Counsell getting significant playing time at 3B is a lost cause. He should be used as the middle infield utility player he was signed to be.

[rluzinski]

Here's an attempt to quantify the total run value of offense and defense through 8/3 for every player in the league:

 

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfdux2FC_hs6ROEQ&gid=1

 

Methodology:

 

http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/search/label/player%20value

 

Branyan: 145 PA, .925 OPS: 10.8 RAR* +.9 fielding runs (3B) = 11.7 RUNS

 

Counsell: 178 PA, .666 OPS: 0.8 RAR* + 1.4 fielding runs (SS, 2B & 3B) = 2.2 RUNS

 

*RAR is "run above average", which is the theoretical average offensive value over freely available talent (AAA, cheap vets).

 

Since August 3,

 

Branyan: .250/.500/.250/.750 (6 PA)

Counsell: .143/.217/.190/.408 (23 PA)

 

To be fair, had Counsell played only at 3B, I'd guess his fielding runs would be higher, as SS and 2B are harder than 3B. Still, it's clear what we are up against. Counsell has no offensive value at all, so it's pretty hard for him to keep up at a premium offensive position. The best defensive 3B in the league couldn't make up that terrible offense (look at Chipper Jones and Rollins).

 

Counsell just has no business starting at 3B.

[lcbj68c]

Not only that, but Counsell batting in the 6th spot with premo RBI opportunities is struggling. Counsell batting 8th I could stomach a little easier.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Here is my argument why it is good that Counsell is getting some starts here in August. It may be wrong, but this is why I think it's good:

 

A lineup needs to have a mix of contact hitters and high strikeout guys. Teams with a bunch of high strikeout guys tend to go in long slumps because they can't play small ball and get runs while they don't get their home runs. Even great home run hitters only hit a home run every 4 games at best so if they are high strikeout guys, that means they aren't making productive outs during those outages. Counsell is greatest player on our team at making his outs productive and I believe he's our best contact hitter. We already have plenty of guys who can smash the ball out of the park, but when they do get on base, it is nice to have a guy like Counsell to get him over or even score them like he did today with a double to left field. Counsell is batting behind Hart and he's a great guy to come up when Hart gets on base so we can use his speed to our advantage with more hit and run and steal situations with less strikeouts. We've also mentioned the great defense.

 

I do think Branyan should be our first option at 3B for the long term, but Counsell is playing in the short term. He will not be our every day 3B in September, but Yost is keeping him sharp here and using Counsell's strengths to the teams advantage. Is it a coincidence that the Brewers have won 6 straight games and have played good baseball since he's been put in there as the left handed version of the platoon at 3B? The answer is debatable, but I don't think it is.

 

Counsell is a clutch hitter who has delivered big many times in his career and when you get a sure handed defensive player in there on a bad defensive team, it really helps.

 

I could be wrong here, but that is the argument, and I think I'm right.

[lcbj68c]

I dont have a huge problem with it. The team could throw out it's bullpen to start the game at all the positions, as long as they win, I don't care who started where.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

If anybody can name any specific game that Counsell has costed us in the last 2 weeks, please let me know, but as far as I have seen, he's helped the team being at 3B and not hurt it. The Brewers are scoring 5.3 runs per game in August. Is Counsell costing our offense? The answer to that question is no. Is he helping our defense? The answer to that question is yes.

[cwolf2012]

A walk also advances a runner. Regardless, there is absolutely no justification for putting Counsell in over Branyan on the left handed side of the platoon. No amount of grit or small ball or defense is worth a .300 difference in OPS (or even the more realistic .150 difference they would have if Branyan wasn't overperforming), especially if they have the same OBP.

 

EDIT: You *might* have an argument here if CC got on base better than Branyan, but he doesn't. They bat for nearly the same average, nearly the same OBP, and Branyan hits the ball a LOT harder.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Regardless, there is absolutely no justification for putting Counsell in over Branyan

How about the justification that we are winning games in the process with Counsell helping out a lot. That's good enough justification for me. If it gets to a point where we need to score runs, then yes, put Branyan in, but this team's issue is defense and Yost is addressing a TEAM NEED.

 

Brewers run production per game in 2008: 4.69

Brewers run production in the last 2 weeks: 5.3

 

Is Counsell hurting us?

[TooLiveBrew]

If anybody can name any specific game that Counsell has costed us in the last 2 weeks, please let me know

 

TWR, I just can't honestly believe that you actually haven't paid attention at all over the course of the past few seasons when people discuss player value/impact... so I'll just assume you're baiting here. It has nothing to do with cherry-picking specific games, but if that's the way you want it, then yes. Counsell's marginal edge on defense doesn't even begin to come close to address the gigantic gap between his offensive 'production' and the other two actual bats we have at the position.

 

I'll just post it again since it appears all you did was click on the most recent page & make your post --

 

Craig Counsell

 

Last 7 days: .118/.211/.176/.387

Last 14 days: .167/.219/.200/.419

Last 28 days: .143/.211/.171/.382

 

Heck, here's the link to his splits, so no one ever again has to hear you claim you just weren't familiar: Craig Counsell B-R.com 2008 splits page

 

And if you can point to one specific game that Counsell single-handedly 'winned' us, by all means...

[rluzinski]

Here is my argument why it is good that Counsell is getting some starts here in August.

 

We've heard those argument from you several times. To my knowledge, you've never really offered any evidence to support them, though. Why does a team need a contact hitter that can't get on base and has no power? How can a team have "enough" power? Diminishing returns? Should productive outs really be coveted? Why should I value a consistently bad hitter over a theoretically less consistent but decent hitting one?

 

Perhaps some or all of those theories will prove themselves correct, but all the evidence I've seen suggests the opposite. So until I see something that supports those claims, I have to treat them as conjecture. Do you blame me?

 

Is it a coincidence that the Brewers have won 6 straight games and have played good baseball since he's been put in there as the left handed version of the platoon at 3B?

 

I sure don't like trying to correlate the presence of one player in the lineup to a teams' wins and losses. Hey, the Brewers haven't lost since Braun got hurt. heck, they also did great last year, before Braun was called up. Coincidence?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

TWR, I just can't honestly believe that you actually haven't paid attention at all over the course of the past few seasons when people discuss player value/impact... so I'll just assume you're baiting here.

I'm not baiting, but it seems like you are by saying that.

 

To my knowledge, you've never really offered any evidence to support them

If your argument is that Counsell is hurting our offense and our offense is scoring more runs in the last 2 weeks than their average this season, then how exactly is Counsell hurting our team right now? This is a great time for Counsell to play because our team is scoring runs and we can take advantage of his defense even that much more. What more evidence do you want? If a player's weakness is not being exposed and his strength is being utilized, why not play him?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

And if you can point to one specific game that Counsell single-handedly 'winned' us, by all means..

Nobody has done that for our team this year, but he has come up big many times with today coming to mind. Also the game vs. the Reds when C.C. Sabathia was pitching and the bases were loaded in the bottom of the 9th and Counsell came up and made a PRODUCTIVE OUT by sacrifice flying in the game winning run. Case in point. Counsell also saved 2 runs in the Braves series by making a diving stab with the bases loaded. Only one run scored, when if the ball had gone to the outfield, 3 runs would have scored. It was a play that Branyan would have never made.

 

A lot of people on this board are purely numbers based and don't see what a guy like Counsell brings to the table. If you look purely at numbers and don't take any intangible parts of the game into account, then Counsell is useless and should be sitting on a boat along Whitefish Bay right now with his fishing rod out. He would have little value, BUT he brings a lot of things to the team that aren't easily quantified by numbers like making productive outs and great defense and contact hitting. I'm sorry I don't have a database of stats to give you the evidence you want, Rluz, but I'm telling you what I've seen in Craig Counsell this year and last year as a fan of the team.

 

Does anyone on this board question the Big Game ability of Craig Counsell? If you want evidence of that look at his fingers. They have some gold on them where he was an integral part of gaining both of those pieces of jewelry. Also if you want some more evidence, check out Counsell's over .400 batting average with the bases loaded in about 85 AB's. Yes that's a small sample, but who in the heck in baseball history has a large sample of the bases being loaded? I'll edit this post a few more times tonight with pieces of "evidence" if I think of them.

[rluzinski]

If you want to talk about offensive production with regard to the context it occurred in, that's fair. Using something like WPA (win probability added) estimates the chance of a team winning before and after the players AB. As up all those changes and you get his total WPA for the year. A team has a 52% of winning a tie game before a guy hits a solo shot in the bottom of the 12th, he gets .48 WPA.

 

Counsell? Not surprisingly, he's racked up the second worst WPA on the team:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Brewers&season=2008

 

Counsell has -.89 WPA, to Kendall's -1.48. Of course, it took Kendall over twice as many AB to acquire that and he's a catcher, not a guy masquerading as a 3B. You can look game by game if you are skeptical of their methodology. Counsell has certainly contributed offensively in some game but not enough to compensate for all the times he's hurt the team.

 

Counsell's fine as a utility infielder. He can give above average defense at SS, 2B and 3B. He might be a little overpaid but that's water under the bridge.My beef with is Yost, who doesn't know how to use him correctly.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Counsell's fine as a uitility infielder. He can give above average defense at SS, 2B and 3B. My beef with is Yost, who doesn't know how to use him correctly.

I completely agree with you that he's just a utility player and that's exactly what Counsell is doing. He's not starting every day at 3B. Yost is just going with him for the time being for the reasons stated above. I guarantee you that Branyan will be back in there regularly by September. If he isn't, I'll buy you a six pack of your beer of choice.

[rluzinski]

Well sure. Branyan will be back in the lineup because Counsell will most likely still be sporting something like a .225/.320/.310/.630 line. But I'm sure he will have hit many weak infield grounders during that time, some that will even be labeled as constructive outs!

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Also the game vs. the Reds when C.C. Sabathia was pitching and the bases were loaded in the bottom of the 9th and Counsell came up and made a PRODUCTIVE OUT by sacrifice flying in the game winning run. Case in point.

 

....

 

He would have little value, BUT he brings a lot of things to the team that aren't easily quantified by numbers like making productive outs and great defense and contact hitting. I'm sorry I don't have a database of stats to give you the evidence you want, Rluz, but I'm telling you what I've seen in Craig Counsell this year and last year as a fan of the team.

The Great Productive Outs Debate of 2004, spurred by a Buster Olney article on ESPN, produced some of my favorite moments in sabermetric research. For example, here Cyril Morong demonstrates that for an entire season's worth of data (2004), if you hold team OPS constant, run scoring actually decreases the more productive outs a team makes. Larry Mahnken had a couple of gems that are still archived at Hardball Times -- check out this one. A couple of findings:

 

- The top five teams in POP have scored 4.33 runs per game, have a .351 POP and a .392 winning percentage.

 

- The bottom five teams in POP have scored 4.74 runs per game, have a .230 POP and a .534 winning percentage.

The scary thing is that TWR might be absolutely right about why Yost wants Counsell in the lineup. Others have covered the defense angle -- there's just not enough of a difference to justify getting a totally anemic hitter this many ABs. Productive outs and contact hitting reduce to the same thing. If it has come to this...to a place where lineups are constructed in the pursuit of the sacred productive out in the middle of a playoff push...well, frankly, I'm just not sure I can really have any long-term hope for this franchise under current management. That goes for Melvin too, if he's just going to stand idly by and let Yost continue to do this.

 

And the fact that the offense has been fine and the team has been winning with Counsell in the lineup, even though he's 0 for whatever, is not evidence that he's helping or that starting him is a good idea. I could use the exact same reasoning to argue that Braun better just sit out the rest of the season, because the team is undefeated since he went down and has yet to score fewer than 5 runs in any of the games.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I could use the exact same reasoning to argue that Braun better just sit out the rest of the season, because the team is undefeated since he went down and has yet to score fewer than 5 runs in any of the games.

But that's the point. If the rest of the offense is scoring runs at this point, then Counsell is fitting perfectly into our lineup right now because his lack of run production is not being exposed. But at the same time, he's playing good defense and filling a team need. The main thing people need to remember is that this is just temporary. If the offense goes back into the tank and I'm sure it will if Braun misses extended time, Branyan will be back.

 

The reason I know this is because I was hired as Ned Yost's personal spokesmen on bf.net to fight off the unfair criticism he's gotten despite improving the team mightily in his time as a Brewer. The team is 17 games over 500. Cripes. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif