Brewer 3B Options For The Rest of The Year

[Diskono]

I know that how players hit means way more than where they bat in the order, but Ned in his batting order by position just baffles me to no end. Craig is playing thirdbase now, so of course that means he has to bat six in the order and whoever else he replaces, that's where he has to bat.

 

I was almost hoping Prince got suspended for a game just to see if Ned would play Rivera at first and then bat him cleanup because well, whoever plays first has to bat cleanup.

Its not as bad as the Reds lineups a few managers ago...it almost seemed like they drew a new batting order out of a hat every day. I don't think batting order makes a whole lot of difference, but it's not that difficult to set it intelligently so even if it only helps a tiny bit, you might as well do it.

I just looked through the game logs. I could have added wrong but it looks like we're 19-14 in games Counsell starts and 18-16 in games Branyan starts. Of course there were a couple of games where Branyan technically started but was taken out for a pinch hitter that we ended up losing. So I counted those.

 

But still, you could at least make a case for Counsell starting a game or two over Weeks against a tough righty. Starting Counsell at third over Branyan is just stupid.

I wonder if anybody has ever put together a stat for baseball players. I don't think it would be very meaningful, but it might be fun to look at.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Counsell did prevent 2 runs yesterday by making that diving stab at 3B, which is just as good as a 2 run home run. Also, he's one of the few Brewers that doesn't strike out at an enormous rate. He moves runners over when they get on base and puts the ball in play.

 

That said, I'd still go with Branyan, but not all is bad with Counsell starting at 3B.

[rluzinski]

Counsell against a RHer at 2B doesn't bother me at all. He's night and day better defensively than other 2 options. But Weeks and Durham are both defensive liabilities. I don't think Branyan is anywhere near that bad.

[joepepsi]

I honestly think Yost does not like Branyan.

I agree. I think most of his managers have shown almost a resentment towards him. Seems like 3TO types are criticized for not "playing the game the right way", or for being lackadaisical. Managers are into strategy and showing how their moves win games. Whenever a team is in a losing streak fans and the media often blame the offense for not playing "small ball". Branyan takes the manager, heck he takes everybody but the pitcher and himself, out of the game. How does Nedly get credit for his brilliance if the win is just about Branyan's towering homers.

I miss Earl Weaver. Back in the day Earl constructed one All Star left Field position by strictly platooning John Lowenstein and Gary Roenicke, with Benny Ayala in for defense late in the game when ahead. It's inexusable that Ned doesn't do this at 3rd. Counsell should never start a game anywhere but ss or 2B. To me he is the classice Sunday afternoon player.

 

fwiw, I seriously doubt Bill Hall in on this team Opening Day 2009.

 

[southpaw121505]

I'd prefer the Branyan/Hall platoon with Counsell as a defensive replacement and spot starts at short and 2nd.

[brewjihad]

What about K rates? Doesn't Branyan/Hall strike out a whole lot more than Counsell? Is Counsell more able to lay down a sac bunt? Is he more reliable at putting a ball in play when needed? Is he a smarter/better base runner? Just how much better is his defense?

 

Strikeouts are the biggest thing with Branyan. Part of the reason our RISP convergence is so bad is because we strike out so much I believe. And perhaps having a guy who can put a ball in play (and is worth calling a sac bunt with) at that point is just more valuable?

Since the Great RISP crisis of 08 began when the last homestand started, Branyan has played twice at 3B in 13 games. I realize you aren't blaming Branyan for the RISP struggles, but... to sacrifice that much production just because Counsell occasionally grounds out instead of striking out isn't a good way to decide who plays, in my opinion anyway.

 

[logan82]

This would be a silly stat, but is there a site that tracks actual winning percentage when certain players are in the starting lineup?

Check the Brewers Press Pass. They have records by start and position on the 4th page. They also have lots of other trivial stats.

 

Record at 3B

Hall 42-32

Branyan 17-15

Counsell 4-3

Dillon 0-1

[TooLiveBrew]

Branyan had been struggling a bit, but his line is still .281 .366 .667 1.033 line in 131 plate appearances against righties. It's inexcusable that Counsell starts 3/4 games at third when there's an option on the bench as good as Branyan is against righties.

 

I, too, think there's something about Branyan that Yost loathes. The talk about Counsell's 'quality ABs' is utter nonsense imo. Branyan routinely goes up to the plate & works the pitcher deep into the count, with good strike zone discipline. So in that way, he's at worst equal to Counsell. Then when you add in the differential in power, the two shouldn't even be in the same discussion. Branyan's defense imo is vastly underrated by many fans. He's had a few hiccups, as every player does, but I've been impressed by Russell's D every bit as much as his bat.

 

 

Counsell playing is one thing. Hitting 6th is another.

 

But... if the 3B didn't bat 6th, the whole lineup would be confused & unable to perform!

 

 

what did Hall do to get back on the bench? Wasn't he winning games a short while ago with HR off of righthanded pitchers

 

He hit two late-game HRs. That's it. Even with that, he's still sucked royally against RHP, and thank goodness Ned has at least gone away from Hall v. RHP... even if it's to his 2nd-best option. Not to mention Hall's god-awful defense.

[endaround]

Hall's defense is better than Branyan's.

[uecker9]

He hit two late-game HRs. That's it.

22 for his last 80 , that's a lot better than what he was doing. Better than what Branyan and Counsell have been doing as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hall's defense is better than Branyan's.

 

I know it's a subjective stance, but I certainly don't agree.

[dadofandrew]

As I said before, Craig is the best defender of the three. He also has the best OBP. We're not talking about George Brett, we're talking about Branyan and Hall, solid players with warts. Branyan looks to have poor range at 3B, and if he does not hit a HR, the odds are he's giving you nothing, or very, very little. Hall has struggled versus RHP all season, and while good defensively, has made many errors, mostly on the routine throw/grounder.

 

What is ironic is when LaRussa mixes and matches, he's labeled a genius in strategery, even though he runs out of relievers in the 9th or 10th a few times each year and often is perplexed when the other manager does anything to counter (he once used 3 of his 4 bench players in one spot, PH, another PH when the opposing manager changed pitchers, and then a PR when that batter reached via error...and had to use a P to PH in the 9th, which led to resounding boos in SL when the SP predictably struck out on 3 pitches. Joe Morgan defended him by saying "Well, you only have a 25 man roster".

 

As for Counsell's spot in the order, pitchers go right after the hitter almost all the time...see Hart's success last night. Protection is often discussed but it's effect on the game is often nonexistent, or at least very minimal.

 

I think we'll continue to see Ned use the hot hand, both at 2B and 3B the rest of the way. Basically, when you have choices, you delay the decision by putting it off until someone steps up...that's why Bush is now in the rotation.

[brewjihad]

I'd like to address this line by line...

 

As I said before, Craig is the best defender of the three. He also has the best OBP.

 

Counsell's OBP is .330. Branyan's is .331.

 

Counsell's slugging is .321. Branyan's is .594.

 

He does have the best defense, without a doubt. But is it worth that much slugging dropoff? I don't think so.

 

Branyan looks to have poor range at 3B, and if he does not hit a HR, the odds are he's giving you nothing, or very, very little.

 

Oh boy. He does walk, no? Is a walk very, very little?

Hall has struggled versus RHP all season, and while good defensively, has made many errors, mostly on the routine throw/grounder.

 

Yup. That's why Branyan should be playing ahead of him.

 

What is ironic is when LaRussa mixes and matches, he's labeled a genius in strategery...

 

I don't like LaRussa, I don't think many people think he's a good manager.

 

Basically, when you have choices, you delay the decision by putting it off until someone steps up...

 

I prefer evaluating the choices, determining the best one based on the presented information, and moving forward.

[rluzinski]

Trying something different until you find something that works is fine for some things. It doesn't really work in baseball, though, since it takes a lot more than a few starts to learn much (with regard to performance stats, at least.). That kind of thinking is what would have allowed Jeff Weaver to get starts this year. The only reason Bush made it through all of last season was because the Brewers knew he was better than his early starts suggested.

[joepepsi]

Even with that, he's still sucked royally against RHP, and thank goodness Ned has at least gone away from Hall v. RHP... even if it's to his 2nd-best option.

And yet there was Billy starting at 3rd against Homer "right handed pitcher" Bailey yesterday. Far be it from me to start a conspiracy theory but I think we can be pretty sure Ned don't like Russell.

 

By the way since the All Star break Branyan is hitting thusly:.273/.333/.545 .878OPS. So we can stop the talk about how he's been in a slump recently.

[TooLiveBrew]

But he strikes out a lot!

 

It doesn't make sense to me that Yost wouldn't want to utilize a player that gives his team a better chance to win, especially with how unafraid he is to seek out new ways to try to help improve the team (SP platoon is an example of such searching). What concerns me is that he consistently demonstrates an inability to understand and/or correctly utilize splits/platoons/stats. It's commendable that Branyan has done so well while not getting any regular PT.

 

If he hit a walk-off HR, you can bet your butt Ned would be 'riding the hot hand' then, though.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

If he hit a walk-off HR, you can bet your butt Ned would be 'riding the hot hand' then, though.

That's not what it is because Branyan has had some critical home runs in his time this year with the Brewers with the one to tie the Twins game at Miller Park and the one to tie the Cubs game at Miller Park coming to mind. Yost is simply going with defense here and keeping Branyan as his lefty power bat off of the bench. Branyan is very useful to have late in games to come in and pinch hit for the pitcher whereas Counsell is not as useful unless the bases are loaded. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

 

But really, Yost doesn't deserve to get fried for going with defense and a contact hitter when his team is loaded with high power, high strikeout guys who can't play defense. It's good to mix and match those types of players. Granted, I hate Counsell in the 6 spot, but as a 1 or 2 hitter, he is very serviceable. It's also good to keep Counsell sharp and with the aquisition of Durham, he really doesn't have anymore opportunities to start at 2B. Is it really that big of a deal that Counsell gets a couple starts at 3B against a RHP when you can keep Branyan as your ace in the hole in the 9th inning to bat for the pitcher? To me, the answer to that question is no.

[TooLiveBrew]

Is it really that big of a deal that Counsell gets a couple starts at 3B against a RHP when you can keep Branyan as your ace in the hole in the 9th inning to bat for the pitcher?

 

My answer is yes, because 3+ AB > 1 AB. I dislike strategies that play for relatively unlikely events (ie. tied or close game late, with no LHRP left/available)

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

My answer is yes, because 3+ AB > 1 AB. I dislike strategies that play for relatively unlikely events (ie. tied or close game late, with no LHRP left/available)

So below average defense and striking out a GaZillion times doesn't bother you?

[kramnoj]

So below average defense and striking out a GaZillion times doesn't bother you?

 

Branyan isn't really below average defensively, and in most cases a K isn't any wose than a regular out. Branyan's a big guy, but he's athletic, he has sure hands and an accurate arm.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Does anyone have any statistics on Branyan's range because from observations it doesn't seem like he can make the play on bunts as well as Hall or Counsell can when charging the ball and also it doesn't seem like he has as good of lateral range either.

[rluzinski]

Branyan's s bug me with a runner at 3B and less then 2 outs. Counsell's weak groundballs bug me when they result in a double play.

 

And Al, you really need to stop saying that Counsell has a good OBP. The last three years he's had OBs of .327, .323 and .321. Only once in the last 6 seven seasons has he had an OBP over .330! we should not expect him to get on base anymore than Branyan, going forward.

[1992casey]

Branyan's s bug me

 

What bugs you? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[kramnoj]

Does anyone have any statistics on Branyan's range because from observations it doesn't seem like he can make the play on bunts as well as Hall or Counsell can when charging the ball and also it doesn't seem like he has as good of lateral range either.

 

Not exactly what you are looking for, but the following link is one researcher's stats on Defensive Runs Saved in 2008 for the NL: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p9BODtOllD4vZjNJHWSF9SA

 

In only 267 innings at 3B, he is ranked 5th in the league in Runs Saved with 2.8. Now that is obviously an incredibly small sample, and a couple of great plays in a short time span can really skew his numbers his way. But in his time at 3B, he really isn't inferior when compared to other 3B.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Too bad we haven't gotten that over the span of his career. I could see him being rated as an average defender, but I would doubt that he's any higher than that.

 

All this being said, Yost is probably just giving Counsell a good amount of AB's because he wants to send a message that he's still a big part of this team and over time, Branyan will probably get a lot more starts at 3B than Counsell will in the remaining games so this discussion is probably moot. I don't mind what Yost is doing here either because you have to keep your bench sharp and it's not like Counsell is costing us games either. I think he has helped us more than hurt us so far in his limited appearances at 3B.