Brewer 3B Options For The Rest of The Year

[rluzinski]

With Counsell starting to get more and more starts at 3B, I think it's fair to question what is Yost's and Melvin's plan for that position over the last 48 games. What the heck is going on? Counsell is still a plus defender. I don't think there's any question that he's easily the best defender of the three. But his offense is just TERRIBLE. Brewcrewball.com posted some updated Marcel projections at the all star break. Here are Hall's and Branyan's:

 

Hall: .260/.326/.465/.791

Branyan: .236/.322/.469/.791

 

Counsell? I don't really need a projection. I'll simply show you two things:

 

Career: .257/.342/.346/.688

2008: .241/.331/.323/.654

 

Someone tell me. What am I missing? And if the phrase, "quality AB" has to be used...

 

Either use a straight platoon with Hall and Branyan or give Branyan a couple starts against RHers a week. Counsell should be getting ZERO starts at 3B. Not even close.

[mkm13]

I agree Counsell should not be getting ABs at 3rd based on our other options. Ned being Ned.

[Hate those Rodents]

Well, I guess I'd prefer Hall/Branyan platooning, though I'd have no problem putting Counsell in for defense like he did for Braun last year (which I hated having his bat out by the way).

 

The best thing to me about this is that maybe if we are THIS sour on our 3B position, maybe Gamel gets a shot early next season.

[ILuvDaBush]

I have no problem with Counsell seeing time at 3B, just NEVER starting. He is, at best, a late defensive replacement at the hot corner. Hall's defense has improved and the Shaded One needs to be seeing a righty or two a week.

[rluzinski]

I have no problem with Counsell being a defensive replacement in the 9th inning at 3B or 2B. I love his defense and think he's a great utility player. But him starting at 3B with Hall and Branyan in the wings is just an absolute joke, IMO.

[brewjihad]

Branyan had been struggling a bit, but his line is still .281 .366 .667 1.033 line in 131 plate appearances against righties. It's inexcusable that Counsell starts 3/4 games at third when there's an option on the bench as good as Branyan is against righties.

 

At least it looks like the silliness of "Hall is hot vs. righthanders" after the 2 homers against the Cardinals is done. Power was never the problem for Bill against them.

[holybannana]

Wouldn't Hall be the best player on paper then? Since, his current OPS is below his projected and Branyan's is much higher?...

 

I really have no idea why he's starting there though.

 

All I can think of is Counsel strikes a whole lot less than those guys and is more likely to advance runners with the outs he makes? He does have a higher OBP than those guys...I'm not saying this justifies it, but he might be thinking not making outs is the most important thing when considering the Ph of this lineup? OBP and potentially advancing runners on base. Being able to make the sac bunt, et.

[razzzorsharp]

Come September, maybe Gamel will get a call up for a start or two or could become another LH off the bench.

 

As for as a "Quality AB" I actually do believe in these. It means that maybe they will move the runner over or make the pitcher work. Sometimes it not only about OPS and HRs.

[dadofandrew]

Counsell has been having good AB's and has a nice OBP. That's why he's been getting some starts. They feel they have plenty of pop. And he's the best defender as well.

 

I would assume Ned will go with the hot hand there, with Hall starting vs all lefties.

[Loopee]

Agreed. Starting Counsell at 3B just doesn't make any sense to me. Even as a defensive matter, I think the improvement from Weeks to Counsell is far greater than either Branyan/Hall to Counsell.

As for long-term 3B plan, the thought occured to me that Hardy with his excellent reactions, slow foot speed, and big arm could be a gold glover there. If Alecide's defense is as advertised, the Brewers might have the best defensive left side of the infield in the league down the road if Hardy makes the move (though Hardy is probably at best an average offensive 3B).

[rluzinski]

Counsell has been having good AB's and has a nice OBP. That's why he's been getting some starts. They feel they have plenty of pop. And he's the best defender as well.

 

The guy has averaged a sub .330 OBP over the last 3 years and no power. He had an OPS of .460 in July. And if it was his 3 singles in 8 AB in in his first two appearances in August that justified giving him 2 starts in a row at 3B, we are in big trouble.

I would assume Ned will go with the hot hand there, with Hall starting vs all lefties.

 

Do you advocate that kind of thinking?

[Ennder]

I'm not sure that counsell shoudl be starting but I bet the difference in SLG compared to defense means very little in the Brewers win percentages. Counsell is probabaly about the same as the other crappy 3B we have.

[GB12]

I think that if Yost wants to start Counsell so badly it should be at second base. Problem with that is then he'd be batting leadoff.

[rluzinski]

I'm not sure that counsell shoudl be starting but I bet the difference in SLG compared to defense means very little in the Brewers win percentages. Counsell is probabaly about the same as the other crappy 3B we have.

 

Counsell projects to have about the same OBP as Branyan and a SLG around 140 points lower. I won't pretend to have crunched any numbers but I find it hard to believe that their defensive difference at 3B makes up that kind of offensive gap. Am I being generous for calling Branyan a defensively average 3B at this point?

 

And sure, we aren't talking about a big difference in win% over 20 starts but you could say the same thing about starting Rivera over Fielder as well. Doesn't mean you shouldn't maximize the talent on the field.

[holybannana]

What about K rates? Doesn't Branyan/Hall strike out a whole lot more than Counsell? Is Counsell more able to lay down a sac bunt? Is he more reliable at putting a ball in play when needed? Is he a smarter/better base runner? Just how much better is his defense?

 

Strikeouts are the biggest thing with Branyan. Part of the reason our RISP convergence is so bad is because we strike out so much I believe. And perhaps having a guy who can put a ball in play (and is worth calling a sac bunt with) at that point is just more valuable?

 

Now, it's easy to argue that it's so rare for a lower OPS player to make a greater contribution to a teams offense because of these other factors. I think its been well studied. But does that take into consideration short term thinking and that being there's way too many strikeouts going on right now, we aren't moving runners over so I need a guy I can rely on to put a dang ball in play?

 

Counsell strikes out half as much as Hall and Branyan (roughly 15% compared to 30%). That's about all I can fathom. I don't agree with it.

[danzig6767]

I know that how players hit means way more than where they bat in the order, but Ned in his batting order by position just baffles me to no end. Craig is playing thirdbase now, so of course that means he has to bat six in the order and whoever else he replaces, that's where he has to bat.

 

I was almost hoping Prince got suspended for a game just to see if Ned would play Rivera at first and then bat him cleanup because well, whoever plays first has to bat cleanup.

[dvoiss]

There is absolutely no way Counsell should be starting when you have another LH option on the bench. He got some hits in Atlanta so Yost probably decided to "go with the hot hand" as he likes to say. That doesn't make it right. Especially the way the offense has struggled as of late. I definitely agree with danzig about the batting order. Because not only is he starting but he's batting sixth because Ned can't move people around. I would much rather see Cameron hit sixth if Counsell is starting. What in God's name is Ned thinking?

[kramnoj]

This would be a silly stat, but is there a site that tracks actual winning percentage when certain players are in the starting lineup? I don't mean OWP, because that is a projection, but a history. I get the feeling that Yost thinks that Counsell being on the field makes the Brewers better. His offensive stats wouldn't justify putting him in the lineup on a regular basis, and he can't start everyday, but the Brewers seem to have a decent record when Counsell is on the field, even if he has nothing to do with it. Of course the Brewers have a decent record when just about anybody is in the field this year, but I don't think Yost is thinking this all the way through.

 

I just get this feeling that Yost would put Counsell in the lineup and the Brewers would win and his mind just made a connection that Counsell = Wins! The Brewers didn't really struggle when Weeks was on the DL, and Counsell being on the field was a part of that, even if his bat didn't make a big difference.

[trwi7]

This would be a silly stat, but is there a site that tracks actual winning percentage when certain players are in the starting lineup?

I just looked through the game logs. I could have added wrong but it looks like we're 19-14 in games Counsell starts and 18-16 in games Branyan starts. Of course there were a couple of games where Branyan technically started but was taken out for a pinch hitter that we ended up losing. So I counted those.

 

But still, you could at least make a case for Counsell starting a game or two over Weeks against a tough righty. Starting Counsell at third over Branyan is just stupid.

[endaround]

Right, Volquez, before the last month when everyone has been pounding him, was worse against left handed hitters. So Counsell at SS yesterday would have made sense. Counsell at 3B does not.

[Fatter than Joey]

I honestly think Yost does not like Branyan.

[Tbadder]

And hitting Counsell behind Hart. Is Yost trying NOT to score runs? Stick to the platoon Nedly. Every time Counsell starts Yost should be fined.

[Ennder]

I'm not sure that counsell shoudl be starting but I bet the difference in SLG compared to defense means very little in the Brewers win percentages. Counsell is probabaly about the same as the other crappy 3B we have.

 

Counsell projects to have about the same OBP as Branyan and a SLG around 140 points lower. I won't pretend to have crunched any numbers but I find it hard to believe that their defensive difference at 3B makes up that kind of offensive gap. Am I being generous for calling Branyan a defensively average 3B at this point?

 

And sure, we aren't talking about a big difference in win% over 20 starts but you could say the same thing about starting Rivera over Fielder as well. Doesn't mean you shouldn't maximize the talent on the field.

 

Well I'd start Hall vs lefties and Branyan vs righties myself, but I just dont' see Branyan to Counsell as some huge drop in win probability. Certainly nothing like Fielder to Rivera.

[JohnBriggs12]

Counsell playing is one thing. Hitting 6th is another. The guy has all of 9 RBI in 159 AB and you bat him in an RBI spot? I personally would't play him at 3B but if both he and Durham are in the lineup, I'd rather have Durham in the RBI spot than Counsell.

 

By the way, what did Hall do to get back on the bench? Wasn't he winning games a short while ago with HR off of righthanded pitchers?

[kramnoj]

I just looked through the game logs. I could have added wrong but it looks like we're 19-14 in games Counsell starts and 18-16 in games Branyan starts. Of course there were a couple of games where Branyan technically started but was taken out for a pinch hitter that we ended up losing. So I counted those.

 

Thanks for doing the work on that. I thought about doing it tonight, but you did it for us. Yost has a reason for doing everything, even if it's muddy or just insane to the rest of us. Even though it's a incredibly small difference, and a one game swing either way makes it basically no difference at all, I think this is the reason that Yost is putting Counsell out there. He just feels that Counsell is either going to find a way to help the team win, or at the very least isn't going to be the reason that the Brewers lose.

 

It could all be realistic expectations too. If Counsell goes 0-4 and doesn't make a bad play in the field, well, that's just baseball for you. But if Weeks goes 0-4 with a couple of Ks and a blunder or two in the field, then he is hurting the Brewers.