Power 50 - August Edition Up Right Now!

[And That]

Lawrie is playing with the Canadian Junior National team at the moment, there's a thread with a lot of updates on that here.

 

When he signs, which he should (the deadline is 8/15), he'll be a top 10 prospect. How far into the top ten is still up for some debate.

[TheCrew07]

Al I don't want to pile on here, I've championed Brantley for a long time as well, but there's no way he's a top 5 prospect. I actually think if Cain will hit he's a better CF prospect than Brantley, he's got better tools and more power. Michael's development was hurt through no fault of his own, he's played every position the organization has asked him to play, but he hasn't played much CF, and that's the only place beside the middle IF that his bat will play.

 

The injury and subsequent re-injury is too bad, because I was interested to see if he was going to continue hitting for power now that's "he's quit sliding around" as Money put it. Of the players rumored to be the PTNBL in the Sabathia deal, the guy I'd be most willing to part with is Brantley, because his upside is limited. I still think he's a great leadoff option if he doesn't go, but I'd much rather keep Green and Lucroy, and since Cain is hitting I'd prefer him to Brantley as well. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Cain broke out over the winter and tore up AA next year as Gamel did this year.

 

As other's have said, that's not a knock against Brantley at all, more a reflection of the organization's talent, I think he's the 2nd best CF option on his current team.

 

Gillespie doesn't do much for me either, though he does have a fantastic eye, the more I think about him the more I think he's a RH Gabe Gross, and there's nothing wrong with that either, he's just not going to be a starter in Milwaukee.

 

edit. To be fair to Cole, he's having a fantastic season, but I've always viewed him as a trade piece, which is why I never seriously considered him destined for Milwaukee's outfield. Cole is exactlty the type of player I wish the Brewers had 2 of in the starting lineup, decent AVE, Good SLG, Very Good OBP... again, I just don't see him having a position in Milwaukee.

[Never Outhustled]

Al I don't want to pile on here, I've championed Brantley for a long time as well, but there's no way he's a top 5 prospect.

We've seen one scout who thought he was a better player than LaPorta, and another that thought Brantley is a future All-Star. How is that not top 5 worthy? I questioned Brantly before he reeled off 5 homers, but I'm a firm believer now.

 

Of the players rumored to be the PTNBL in the Sabathia deal, the guy I'd be most willing to part with is Brantley, because his upside is limited

What is limiting his upside? He's tall, fast, and athletic, with good batspeed.

 

 

I still think he's a great leadoff option if he doesn't go, but I'd much rather keep Green and Lucroy, and since Cain is hitting I'd prefer him to Brantley as well.

Green is easily the player on the list with the worst tools. He is neither fast nor athletic, and his lack of size could become a detriment to him . Its difficult for small players to cover the plate, and if they try to compensate for that, it can open holes in there swing. I've seen you compare Green to Cirillo, but I think thats unfair because Green just doesn't have Cirillo's natural ability. The MLB player that I think Green compares to is the Cubs Mike Fontenot. Fontenot has similar size and athletism, with the same patient approach, and has some pop. He's a solid part time starter, but not an All-Star like Cirillo.

 

Cain's OPS at Brevard County last year as a 21 year old was roughly the same as Brent Brewer has right now there as a 20 year old. You consider Brewer a longshot, but Cain is better than Brantley after only really having 1 strong month this year? Cain is toolsy, but lags behind Brantley in hitting ability, baserunning, and strike zone awareness. He does have a stronger arm than Brantley, but I don't know if thats a big deal for a CF.

I agree that Lucroy is an outstanding prospect. I also agree that Gillespie doesn't have a starting spot in Milwaukee, and is likely very close to reaching his ceiling, whereas Brantley and Cain could improve immensly by the time they reach Gillespie's present age.

[dadofandrew]

I think folks that do not like Brantley fail to recall how young he is and at what level.

 

He's got 3 years to improve before he is the same age as Cole. Gillespie will never be a CF, Mike probably will be. I don't even consider it close.

 

I also question the comparison of Gillespie to Hart...a side-by-side look at age, level, and stats make that seem odd. Corey was dominating AAA and doing ok in the bigs at 24, while Gillespie is doing pretty well at AA.

 

I have Brantley as my #4, behind Gamel, Escobar, and Salome. Jeffress has a very high ceiling, but also an immense flame out risk, due to youth, hard throwing, and his off field discretions.

[And That]

I think folks that do not like Brantley fail to recall how young he is and at what level.

Which "folks" do not like Brantley?

[TheCrew07]

X

 

For me difference when it comes to Green is that he can play either 3B or 2B, which both happen to be position need. I understand he's not toolsy by any stretch but he's solid. I keep seeing the "short guy" arguement dropped for players like Gindl, Salome, Green... it doesn't bother that me personally they are short, I understand the limitations, the same way it doesn't bother me when a guy is 6' 6"... if he hits that's all I care about.

 

Brantley is way above average offensively in terms of BA and OBP, below average in terms of Power (though he's showing flashes), Speed wise he's probably average for a CF, and his arm is Average or Below Average depending on what report you want to believe, and by all accounts he has great instincts for the game (which is a bigger deal to me than many people I'm sure). As I see it about the only place for his game to grow is power wise, and I just don't see him developing into a 20HR guy, which is why I say he has limited upside. What you see is what you're going to get with Brantley at this point. Again I really like him as a leadoff hitter, but if Cain breaks out I'd rather have him playing CF long term. My opinion of Brantley has not changed, in fact it's improved as he's developed some power this year, it's just that with Cain stepping up his game I like the potential there better, he's been a favorite of mine for a long time. Cain could very flame out, which would make Brantley irreplacable... I just don't think we're there yet.

 

My top seven would be

 

1. Gamel

2. Escobar

3. Salome

4. Lucroy

5. Jeffress

6. Green

7. Brantley

 

That's just the way I see it. FWIW I don't see Cleveland taking Brantley with Sizemore in CF, unless they are looking to have him change positions or move him in a trade, think Brantley is the least likely guy to go.

[igor67]

I think the argument could be made that at this stage of the game Green would be the best to go and shift Lawrie to third. I like Green's game, but even if he hits like Cirillio he still doesn't have the same defensive upside that made Jeff a really underrated player in Milwaukee. I do think the point is important that being inside the top 10 is still pretty high praise for Brantley. I'm comfortable with him as the 5th best hitting prospect and were you choose to throw Jeffress in that mix is almost entirely subjective based on your preference for ceiling vs. risk. Brantley is tough to really peg because his combination of youth, walk rate, and contact rate are quite unique. He truly out does the Tom goodwins and Juan Pierre's of the world on those metrics. It's not entirely fair but given his profile his top level ceiling might be best compared to Ichiro! without the completely whacky batting style.

[Mike]

But it makes no sense to me either. I do not know the people who make the Power 50 in terms of whether they watch the players or not, but certainly Komatsu has more HR's and less K's than Schafer. Having said that, if the author of the 50 is basing it soley on stats (which I hope he or she is not) then you will get these differences. The truth is, each level is different and hard to compare. I'm sure the Brewer brass can tell and perhaps we can develop a coefficient to compare, but it is what it is. A person's rankings based on who knows what?

 

I think long term Schafer and Komatsu will be better than Fryer, Gindl and Haydel.....but then again what do I know?

 

What I can tell you is I have seen them all play at a minimum of 10 times each.

 

Mike

[pogokat]

Welcome aboard Mike!

 

Haven't gotten to see komatsu, but i have seen schafer a couple times..

 

good to have people on board that have seen players frequently...please give us some first hand reports

[TheCrew07]

I been around for a number of years now, and I'm still surprised how worked up people get about placements on the P50... a subjective list... taken from the average position of 4 staffers...

 

I have a very hard time saying that my way is better than anyone else's, or any of the staffers... it's all just a matter of perspective and opinion. If someone questions me why I feel I the way I do about a prospect I'll respond with my honest opinion, but the way I see it there isn't any black and white this stuff, just varying shades of grey.

 

The comments are my favorite part, and I look forward to seeing what each different staffer has to say about the prospects when they get their chance.

[Never Outhustled]

I can't believe I'm the only one on the Cutter Dykstra bandwagon. His OPS in Helena is over 1.000 , and has done that despite battling injury. He's athletic, fast, and explosive, with great desire.

 

At #39, he is the most misplaced player in the history of the P50, at least 25 spots off.He's ranked behind 3 players drafted after him, despite staff comments that say we can't judge these new draftee's yet. He's ranked behind a 3rd year RHP pro who's throwing 85MPH in A ball, and a 2nd year pro LHP who is mediocre in the same league as Cutter, and is tiny. Cutter may have dropped because he was injured, but 2 others who were injured throughout July actually moved up on the P50.

 

 

He is the opposite of Tony Gwynn, as Gwynn was only a prospect because of his name, Cutter seems to be hurt here as some are either annoyed by bloodlines or personally don't like Lenny Dykstra. If he was Cutter Smith, I'm guessing he'd be the rage of the board.

 

Another exciting thing about Cutter is he stated in an earlier interview that he might start working at 2B in instructional league. That would be the best fit for someone with his athletism and short area quickness, but only an average arm. I doubt he'd have much fear turning the double play. He played SS for most of his HS career before moving to CF.

[battlekow]

At #39, he is the most misplaced player in the history of the P50, at least 25 spots off.He's ranked behind 3 players drafted after him, despite staff comments that say we can't judge these new draftee's yet. He's ranked behind a 3rd year RHP pro who's throwing 85MPH in A ball, and a 2nd year pro LHP who is mediocre in the same league as Cutter, and is tiny. Cutter may have dropped because he was injured, but 2 others who were injured throughout July actually moved up on the P50.

I can tell that we are going to be friends: I have Dykstra #14 on my list.

 

[homer]

I'm sure Dykstra will move up significantly in next month's rankings. When this list came out he had a whopping 36 ABs at Helena and hadn't really done much of note in AZ.

 

I do think 39 was too low in any event. Top 20 for sure.

[LouisEly]

Its difficult for small players to cover the plate, and if they try to compensate for that, it can open holes in there swing. I've seen you compare Green to Cirillo, but I think thats unfair because Green just doesn't have Cirillo's natural ability. The MLB player that I think Green compares to is the Cubs Mike Fontenot. Fontenot has similar size and athletism, with the same patient approach, and has some pop.

 

Even before I finished the first sentence I was thinking about Fontenot. I'll take a career .811 OPS and .360 OBP from a 2B; this year he's having a season that would (and should) make Rickie Weeks blush. (Heck, he's having a career that should make Weeks blush.) But considering he's playing in the offensively suppressed Space Coast Stadium and FSL league, Green's 13 HRs so far are very impressive. I've said this before, but it would not surprise me if the Brewers long-term vision of their infield is Hardy at 3B, Escobar at SS, Green at 2B, and Fielder at 1B (with Braun, Hart, and Gamel in the OF; how's that for a balanced lineup - 4 RH and 3LH.) And hitting lefty makes Green even more valuable.

[colbyjack]

I don't think there is any staff opposition to Cutter Dykstra, based on his last name or for whatever reason. I think you make a good case for Cutter being ranked higher on the P50, but I didn't really understand that point of your argument at all.

 

I can't speak for the other members of the P50 collaborative effort, but I personally am hesitant to rank recently drafted players too high, outside of someone like Brett Lawrie, who is sure to be among my top 5-7 prospects next month.

 

Efrain Nieves is a good example of this, and he wasn't even drafted this past year. I know I was extremely excited to see his name called last year in the 7th round, a player that I was very familiar with and one that I was somewhat surprised to see last as long as he did. He wasn't on my P50 list because I didn't get a good taste for what he was capable of, and while he posted very good peripherals last year, including a very successful, yet brief stint with the H-Crew, I couldn't justify putting him among the top 50 prospects.

 

Dykstra obviously was drafted early enough to debut on the P50, but I try not to compare him to other players drafted before or after him. He was injured to open his pro career, was sent down to Arizona to get on track, and has recently been bumped back up to Helena, where he has been hitting extremely well.

 

He clearly is due for a big bump next month. Komatsu and Shafer for me were placed where they were because they enjoyed immediate success and haven't really slowed down since joining the organization. I don't think anyone doubts that Dykstra has a higher ceiling than both of those guys, and I'm really excited about the thought of having a true leadoff type CF (and am even more excited if he returns to the IF in instructional league), but again, I need to see it first to put a recently drafted player too high on the list.

[battlekow]

I need to see it first to put a recently drafted player too high on the list.

Cody Adams is #25.

 

[colbyjack]

Yup, and we've already had a taste of what he can do coupled with the scouting reports we have on him. Same with Fredrickson and even Lintz. As for Adams, I have had a conversation recently with one scout that couldn't stop gushing over Adams (and Odorizzi for that matter). I think people look at his numbers too much and wonder why the team used such a high pick to nab him, but the guy has a great arm and deserves to be ranked where he currently is.

[igor67]

I was doing a little statistical exercise this morning. Thinking back to those hallowed days when Kevin Barker was our number 1 prospect. Unfortunately I don't have any good scouting info on him, but statistically he kind of fits in as a mixture of Brad Nelson and Chris Errecart. Looking back I was surprised to note that he had kept playing through 2005 and even had some other big league ABs. Based on that one could argue that we have 20 players in the minors better than Barker was, though on some level that almost feels low to me. Barker was always pretty much right on track age wise coming up, but until he played in Lousville he played in the Pioneer league, the California league, and then the Texas league. His number look pretty week until he essentially repeats AAA if you do some adjusting for league.

 

On some level it does make me wonder if Nelson and Errecart are somewhat too high on the list, on the other hand it's just plain fun to look at all the bats we have in the system.

[CheezWizHed]

Hey, guys. I really appreciate all the hard work that goes into the P50.

I was wondering if we could add a column to describe how the brewers aquired that player. The top 10-15 are normally pretty easy to remember, but for some of the others, I think it would be nice to see.

 

Just an idea.

[Brian the Automator]

Hey, guys. I really appreciate all the hard work that goes into the P50.

I was wondering if we could add a column to describe how the brewers aquired that player. The top 10-15 are normally pretty easy to remember, but for some of the others, I think it would be nice to see.

 

Just an idea.

I'm planning on giving the programming behind the P50 an hoverhaul this offseason... including how acquired, and this year's stats as well as some other things.

 

[trwi7]

I was wondering if we could add a column to describe how the brewers aquired that player.

They actually have the player index that shows how each player was acquired. Just click on the player's name that you want to know about.

[sheetskout]

I still don't think Salome gets enough credit. He's right on Gamel's tail in RBI's and OPS.

[LouisEly]

Due for some Power 50 love - Corey Frerichs. 64 IP, 47 H, 81 K, 2.39 ERA. Walks a little high at 37, but those first three numbers in combination are very good. How you get 8 losses from those numbers I don't know. For comparison, Rob Bryson had 66 IP, 49 H, 26 BB, 82 K, 3.93 ERA.

[Never Outhustled]

Due for some Power 50 love - Corey Frerichs. 64 IP, 47 H, 81 K, 2.39 ERA. Walks a little high at 37, but those first three numbers in combination are very good. How you get 8 losses from those numbers I don't know. For comparison, Rob Bryson had 66 IP, 49 H, 26 BB, 82 K, 3.93 ERA.

Frerichs has had a very good season, but the P50 is a prospect list, not a hot sheet. Bryson made the list because of his stuff, not his stats. Every year we have a reliever dominate A ball. When has any of those relievers made an impact in the majors? Never.

[battlekow]

If you're looking for an A-ball reliever that might actually be a prospect (besides Rob Wooten), Frerichs is way behind Roque Mercedes and Pedro Lambertus.