Is Ryan Braun the 2008 MVP?

[brewerguy71]

So far?

 

There are about 12 guys up for consideration at this point. Do you think the MVP should come from a winning or contending team? Do you think the MVP should come from a team that makes the playoffs?

 

As of right now, statistically, Lance Berkman is by far the most productive offensive player in the NL. Does he have a chance to be the MVP? Maybe. Other players in that class would include Chipper Jones and Matt Holliday. Among the teams that could fall off, Pujols, Hanler Ramirez and Dan Uggla are all considerations as well.

 

As of right now, including guys who arent on winning teams, my vote would go 1. Berkman, 2. Pujols, 3. C. Jones, 4. Holliday, 5. Burrell, 6. H. Ramirez, 7. Ludwick, 8. Utley, 9. Braun, 10. Uggla.

 

I would expect Berkman, C. Jones, Burrell and Ludwick to have no shot at all, much less consideration.

 

As of now....

[Thurston Fluff]

As of now Braun certainly has entered the race. It's way too early to determine how good a chance. August and September are both way top big of months in MVP voting to really know what is going to transpire. If how well he's playing in big moments means anything Braun has taken a huge step forward in that regard.

[endaround]

No he isn't the MVP. If he wins the MVP assuming things stay the current way its just a sad statement about baseball writers.

[eanelson4]

At this point in the season, I would think Braun has jumped past Utley, H. Ramirez, and Pat "the bat". I would put Braun 3rd. The more time Chipper spends on the DL, the more his chances decline (which is why I put Braun ahead of him).

 

So, to this poin, I would vote:

 

1. Berkman 2. Pujols 3. Braun 4. Holliday

 

 

If Ryan can keep this up, he'll at least be in contention with Lance and Pujols for the NL MVP. Berkman had a bad July and Braun had a GREAT July, so he closed up a lot of ground there. I think there is a realistic chance that he could go ROTY --> MVP in his first 2 seasons. Should be exciting to see how it all plays out.

[mark brouhard is number on]

No way. Look at his OBP http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

 

In all seriousness though, I think in the last couple of weeks he has definitely entered the discussion, and if he keeps it up I believe he has a chance, allbeit a small one right now.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

brewerguy71 wrote:

 

As of right now, including guys who arent on winning teams, my vote would go 1. Berkman, 2. Pujols, 3. C. Jones, 4. Holliday, 5. Burrell, 6. H. Ramirez, 7. Ludwick, 8. Utley, 9. Braun, 10. Uggla.

The top 3 are really the only viable candidates at this point. I would put the current order as 1. Jones 2. Berkman 3. Pujols. The only others I think have a plausible shot at catching that group are Utley and Ramirez.

 

But the writers only vote on triple crown stats, unless they can't find a viable triple crown stats candidate. In which case, we learned last year, they vote on the quality of the story (Rollins). Thus, Braun could certainly win one of the more undeserved MVPs in recent memory with a strong finish - he is a triple crown stats kind of guy on a winning team.

[cwolf2012]

If you go by defense and offense, he's getting to be up there with Berkman and Pujols after this recent tear. If he holds his current line for the rest of the season and the Brewers win the NL Central, I think there's a good chance he wins it.

 

Now, if you asked me if he's having the best season offensively+defensively in the NL, I would completely disagree, but I'm going by the way that the Morneau and Rollins voting press has voted in the past.

[naivin]

I was actually just thinking talking about this on Sunday. Braun has made himself a candidate, and is approaching front runner status, but right now Pujols gets my vote.

[JohnBriggs12]

Braun has nearly 10 more HR and 20 RBI more than either Holliday or Pujols. As long as he maintains that and his BA is reasonably close, I don't think voters will look at OBP.

 

Berkman was the first half MVP but he's slugging just .315 in July and he's playing on a non contender.

 

The top 6 in no particular order are Braun, H. Ramirez, D. Wright, Pujols, Utley, and Berkman. I wouldn't even count out Ryan Howard at this point since he's on pace for around 145 RBI.

 

Chipper Jones? He can't stay in one piece. He might not get enough plate appearences to qualify for the batting title.

[endaround]

A quick VORP rundown can put this in some perspective:

 

Berkman 65.0

Pujols 56.6

C. Jones 55.5

H. Ramirez 55.0

Holliday 48.0

Reyes 45.3

McCann 41.2

Utley 40.7

Braun 40.6

Wright 39.2

Burrell 39.1

Uggla 36.3

 

Berkman has lapped everyone so far.

[homer]

If baseball beat writers knew what VORP was, that might matter.

[endaround]

VORP is just a quick metric, Berkman has just been better than everyone but a fair share.

[TheRealMattKain]

Chipper has missed quite a few games due to injury already (he's played 89 of 105 games) and just hit the DL for 2 weeks. Keeping that in mind and with the Braves falling out of contention (Hudson is now out for the season), I don't think there is any possible way that he'll win the MVP. At the end of the year, he'll be lucky to have played 130 games.

Utley's put up great numbers at second, but has really fallen into a deep slump (my fantasy team can attest to that). 2 HRs and 6 RBIs in the month of July will not help his cause. Uggla is in the same boat - terrible July slump (and as silly as it sounds his brutal All-Star game will sway some voters). Of course, either one of these guys could have a huge August or September, but at present both are playing their way out of the MVP race.

Berkman has a shot, but will lose votes if the 'stros finish below .500. Same can be said of Holliday and the Rockies.

I think Pujols (although the DL stint will hurt) and H-Ram have to be front runners with Braun not far behind. Voters tend to favor players on winning teams with big "baseball card stat" numbers (Runs, RBIs, HRs, BA). Braun's poor OBP might hurt him when it comes to "objectively" determining which player has contributed the most wins to his team, but it will certainly not hurt him in the MVP voting. Like it or not, I imagine few MVP voters take advanced, modern metrics such as VORP, WARP3, EQA (or even something as obviously important as OBP) into consideration when determining who to vote for. If the Brewers win the division or grab the wildcard, Braun is a lock for top 3 in MVP voting.

[BraunFan08]

*prediction* Braun continues on his hot streak the rest of the year and wins a close vote over Berkman

[TheRealMattKain]

A quick VORP rundown can put this in some perspective:

 

McCann 41.2

Wow, McCann is really putting together an amazing season. How is he flying under the radar? He's the only VORP leader that wouldn't have crossed my mind if I were to have put together a list of the top NL performers off the top of my head.

 

 

Edit: Took out unnecessary part of the quote. Please watch what you're quoting.

[RyDogg66]

If the Astros finish below .500, which I think they will, then kiss Berkman goodbye. The MVP pretty much has to come from one of:

 

NY Mets (Wright, Reyes)

Phillies (Utley)

Marlins (Ramirez)

Cubs

Brewers (Braun)

Cards (Pujols)

Dodgers

D'Backs

 

So one of those 6 guys will most likely win it, whether we like it or not.

[naivin]

*prediction* Braun continues on his hot streak the rest of the year and wins a close vote over Berkman

 

If he continues on his hot streak teh rest of the year, he'll win, but it will certainly not be close.

[brewerguy71]

A quick VORP rundown can put this in some perspective:

Dont forget the pitchers on that list. Harent is at 46.1, Lincecum 43.8, Zambrano 40.3, Sheets 39.9, Hudson 37.8 and Santana 37.5

 

 

Edit: Took out unnecessary part of the quote. Please watch what you're quoting.

[Brian the Automator]

Dont forget the pitchers on that list. Harent is at 46.1, Lincecum 43.8, Zambrano 40.3, Sheets 39.9, Hudson 37.8 and Santana 37.5

Generally speaking, it takes a REAL special performance by a pitcher to win an MVP. I don't think this year's crop qualifies, at least so far.

 

[jjfanec]

Wow, McCann is really putting together an amazing season. How is he flying under the radar? He's the only VORP leader that wouldn't have crossed my mind if I were to have put together a list of the top NL performers off the top of my head.

McCann really has not gotten the respect he deserves this year. Soto is having a nice year but in comparison to McCann it is not even close. The Braves playing poorly, is aiding is lack of publicity. His OPS is just crazy for a catcher.

As for the MVP talk, I would say Braun enters into it more if the Brewers stay in the race down the stretch. Berkman is still the front-runner in my mind but if someone from a contender gets close he will move to second. If St. Louis stays in it Pujols will be right up there, but there really are not a lot of convincing arguments to be made for other guys.

 

[cwolf2012]

"If he continues on his hot streak teh rest of the year, he'll win, but it will certainly not be close."

 

I second that notion. His line in the last 7 is .538/.548/1.192 with 5 HR, 10 RBI, and 3 BB in about 30 PAs. Extrapolate that to 56 games, he'll have about 69 HR and 161 RsBI with about a .370/.410/.800 line.

 

I'd probably vote for that.

[brewerguy71]

Generally speaking, it takes a REAL special performance by a pitcher to win an MVP. I don't think this year's crop qualifies, at least so far.

I would put Dan Haren at about 14th right now. Not to say that I think he is the Cy Young Award winner to this point. I'll have to start on that one tomorrow.

 

 

Edit: Took out unnecessary part of the quote. Please watch what you're quoting.

[danzig6767]

VORP is just a quick metric, Berkman has just been better than everyone but a fair share.

I'm not dismissing the validity of the stat and i do think others so far are more deserving than Braun, but have you ever heard from those that vote that so and so has a better VORP?

[jhart05]

He's in the running.

 

Other than that, all I have to say is...I think it's a bit too early for the fans to be chanting "MVP" for him at the park.

[MessiahRp]

I think though we're forgetting that Berkman and likely Chipper play for teams that are not going to be in this race. There's a possibility that the Cards could fall off as well and they'll be out of it. Usually writers don't vote a guy league MVP if their teams didn't make the playoffs (or were out of contention in September even).

That would leave far less candidates for Braun to have to beat out. Chase Utley would likely be one although who knows if Pat Burrell will warrant enough consideration to take some of those votes away.

Rp