Next Player to 3,000

[yfinn6]

Well I just got real confused for a minute there until I actually started using my brain.

 

I saw on ESPN that Ichiro had gotten his 3,000 career hit. My eyes just about jumped out of my skull, as I could not believe he would already have 3,000 (MLB) hits. Then I realized that they had also counted his hits from his time in Japan. It's a feat nonetheless, however I just about had an accident when I initially saw that.

[Invader3K]

yfinn: I did the same thing...I was more confused for a moment than anything.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Pujols doesn't have the body type that's going to age well. (IF he's even only 28). To get to 4,000, he'd have to play well into his 40's, and he'd have to play 150+ games per year at that. 2% might be giving him too much credit.

[brwrsfan]

Realistically for any player to reach anywhere near 4000 hits, they have not only be in the big leagues by around 21-22, but also be producing from the start. On top of that, they need to produce very, very good seasons to even have a shot at it. We're talking 200 hits for 20 straight years people....let that sink in for a moment. 200 hits for 20 consecutive seasons. Assuming they don't have Cal Ripken's longevity, they're probably going to lose some significant time at some point in their career due to injury, making it even more unlikely that we ever see another 4000 hit player. Players just simply don't come up that young very often any more.

 

 

I'm too lazy to look but not that many players even reach 200 hits for ONE season, yet alone 20 STRAIGHT seasons. Assuming they don't have Cal Ripken's longevity, they're probably going to lose some significant time at some point in their career due to injury, making it even more unlikely that we ever see another 4000 hit player. It's just too much, and if it does happen again it'll most likely be one of the most prolific, consisten hitters we've ever see.

 

Start shaving a year or two off of that 20 year total and the average hits pers season become even more gaudy:

 

210.5 for 19 straight years

222.2 for 18 straight years

235.3 for 17 straight years

250 for 16 straight years

 

I'll stop there as after that we're in MLB record territory. I just don't think 4000 hits is possible for a player to accomplish in this day and age. I hope I'm wrong, because I'd really like to see it, but I'm going with no going to happen.

 

As far as 3000 goes....I'll say Jeter should make it for sure, A-Rod not too long after. I'm not willing to call any others locks at this point (and Ray Durham has that many hits!?!?)

[SenatorShriv]

I remember there being a lot of discussion back in 2001 / 2002 that Pujols was probably older than his listed age. Is that still the general consensus?

[Fatter than Joey]

We're talking 200 hits for 20 straight years people....let that sink in for a moment. 200 hits for 20 consecutive seasons.

 

I think you are overstating this a bit -- Rose only hit 200+ 10 times in his career.

[brwrsfan]

We're talking 200 hits for 20 straight years people....let that sink in for a moment. 200 hits for 20 consecutive seasons.

 

I think you are overstating this a bit -- Rose only hit 200+ 10 times in his career.

 

While that's true for Rose, I'm assuming that most players, at the absolute best, have a 20 year shelf life as a major league player. In which case, they need to average 200 hits a year for 20 years. Rose also had 2 seasons of 198 hits, so it's virtually 12 years with 200 hits.

 

Rose also played 24 seasons, he was 45 when he played his last game...that just doesn't happen all that often. And, as has been discussed, he had some special circumstances as player/manager in the last couple. Rose averaged 177 hits per season, however, taking out the last 4 seasons (where he had hit totals of 72, 35, 107 and 52) and looking at only his first 20 seasons, he falls almost exactly on the average:

 

3990 hits = 199.5 hits per season

[And That]

It's much easier to average 200 hits a season than it is to get 200 hits per year over the course of a number of seasons. That's where the average argument falls down, IMO.

 

For instance, a player enters the league and in his first five seasons, has 180, 185, 190, 185, 195 hits. Pretty good. Then, in his sixth and seventh seasons, he breaks out for 240 and 225 hits. He's now averaging 200 hits a season but has only done it two out of seven times.

[TheRealMattKain]

Rose was a bad player in his 40s -- plus he managed as well for ~2.5 seasons so he could control his ABs.

 

- During 4 of his 6 seasons at age 40+ Rose had an OBP above league average

- In 1981 at age 40 Rose had a .391 OBP and a 119 OPS+

- In 1982 at age 41 Rose had a .345 OBP

- In 1984 at age 43 Rose had a .359 OBP

- In 1985 at age 44 Rose had a .395 OBP

 

- Rose had a .375 OBP during his 2.5 years as a manager of the Reds (that would be good for first on the 2008 Brewers)

Rose was no MVP during his 40s. He was bad at stealing bases (he stole 32 bases and got caught 22 times) and had almost no power (5 homeruns in his 40s). However, he was still pretty good at getting on base. He had rough seasons in '83 and '86 (his final season), but 4 of his 6 seasons at 40+ were far from "bad".

[joepepsi]

I don't think you can assume Pujols will break down. He's a big fella, but at 6'3" and 210, that's hardly a recipe for creaky knees and an achy back. There's a lot left to his career but we may be watching one of the 4 or 5 greatest right handed hitters of all time, if not the greatest. He's in Rogers Hornsby territory.

[JJ Hardy Har Har]

Count me in on that group of disbelievers that Albert is 28. Dude looked 28 when he broke in. He has little or no hair left on top, and while I know a couple of guys that started going thin on top at 28 (me), it's not really all that common to be complete cue-balled by 30 like he'll be.

[Fatter than Joey]

However, he was still pretty good at getting on base. He had rough seasons in '83 and '86 (his final season), but 4 of his 6 seasons at 40+ were far from "bad".

 

He did well in 1981 -- I will concede that -- but from 1982-1986, I think the kindest thing you could say about his offensive production (esp. for 1b) is "below average".