Next Player to 3,000

[SenatorShriv]

Who do you think will be the next player to 3,000 hits? Here is the active list:

Bonds - 2935
Griffey - 2,644
Vizquel - 2,630
Ivan Rodriguez - 2,584
Gary Sheffield - 2,572

Obviously Bonds would have done it had he played this year, but I don't see anyone else on that list making it. So, who among the next wave of stars do you think has a chance?

Jeter - 2,468
A-Rod - 2,346
Manny Ramirez - 2,313

** All the numbers are from Wikipedia so they may not be completly up to date.

[bullox]

Rank	Player (age)	Hits	Bats
1.	Barry Bonds* (43)	2935	L
2.	Ken Griffey* (38)	2644	L
3.	Omar Vizquel# (41)	2630	B
4.	Ivan Rodriguez (36)	2584	R
5.	Gary Sheffield (39)	2572	R
6.	Luis Gonzalez* (40)	2569	L
7.	Derek Jeter (34)	2468	R
8.	Frank Thomas (40)	2448	R
9.	Kenny Lofton* (41)	2428	L
10.	Jeff Kent (40)	2418	R
11.	Sammy Sosa (39)	2408	R
12.	Alex Rodriguez (32)	2352	R
13.	Manny Ramirez (36)	2316	R
14.	Garret Anderson* (36)	2302	L
15.	Chipper Jones# (36)	2234	B
16.	Johnny Damon* (34)	2208	L
17.	Moises Alou (41)	2134	R
18.	Mike Piazza (39)	2127	R
19.	Vladimir Guerrero (32)	2075	R
20.	Ray Durham# (36)	2026	B

Gonna have to go with Jeter on this one.

 

Full list from baseball-reference.com

[pebadger]

Looking at this list only reaffirms what a feat 3,000 hits really is.

[danmam]

Jeter and A-Rod both have a shot. I think A-Rod will get it for sure. Looking way ahead, Carl Crawford is at about 1100 at age 26. He might get there if he keeps it up.

[Gobias Industries]

I can't believe Ray Durham has that many career hits.

 

Griffey seems like a guy who really cares about his stats, so I could see him hanging on a couple more seasons and getting it.

[jwaltz]

I think Jeter's a lock. Same with A-Rod. Jeter should get there first though.

[brewcrewman17]

I know this doesn't count, but Ichiro is at 2,999 for his combined MLB/Japan career, with 1,721 in a little over 7 1/2 seasons in MLB at age 34. If he hits at his current pace, he could have 3,000 in about 6 season at the age of 40. It's probably a long shot that he'll keep up the pace, but even if he doesn't, he's going to get pretty close. That's pretty impressive.

[igor67]

If Ichiro got 3000 hits in MLB that would be amazing. It would get people talking because that would put his MLB + Japan total in Rose territory.

[brewerguy71]

Jeter, ARod, Damon (if he can stay healthy) and Guerrero should be the next players to get to 3000.

[Postseason2006]

I thought this was about 3000 SO's and was going to say Bill Hall.

[JJ Hardy Har Har]

I believe Griffey will play until he is crippled, and end up with over 3,000... and 700 to boot.

[FVBrewerFan]

Looking at this list only reaffirms what a feat 3,000 hits really is.

That was my reaction as well. I would say Griffey is next-, with Jeter and Rodriquez pushing him.

[Invader3K]

I believe Griffey will play until he is crippled, and end up with over 3,000... and 700 to boot.

I can see Griffey making 3000 hits, but I somehow can't see him making it to 700 homers. I could be wrong.

As for Ichiro, I can see him making 3000 hits, which would be a monumental accomplishment, considering his career road. A shoe-in Hall of Famer at that point, if he isn't so already.

 

[JJ Hardy Har Har]

I can see Griffey making 3000 hits, but I somehow can't see him making it to 700 homers. I could be wrong.

Well, he's 93 short, and at his 2008 pace, he could hit another 8 this year, putting him 85 short going into 2009. At 39 next year, I figure he'll need to play another 4 seasons to get close, or until he is 43. I don't know why, but I just suspect he's in it until he just physically can't do it anymore. I believe he's a FA after 2009 though, so we'll see if he retires, or signs with an AL team to DH.

 

[T B0NE 10]

Guerrero is possible at age 32 if he'd play into early 40's. However thats very unlikely with his injury history.

 

The answer: Ryan Braun

[joepepsi]

Jeter could be there by the end of 2011. ARod will be a couple years behind that. I don't think Junior can make it. He should retire after this season, but I'm sure he'll come back next year, convinced he can reclaim some of his past glory. 2010 is the absolute last year he will try to play. That won't be enough time to get to 3,000.

 

Pujols has a chance to reach 4,000 hits.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Pujols has a chance to reach 4,000 hits.

Don't see it. Bill James's "Favorite Toy" puts that chance at 2%. I suppose, technically, that is a chance. Barring lots of injury problems or a Dale Murphy early 30s decline, I think Pujols will get 3000, but I'd bet all the money I will ever earn against 4000.

[Invader3K]

or signs with an AL team to DH.

I think that would be the best move for him. He can clearly still hit, but the defense has to wear on him, I'm assuming.

 

Maybe he could go back to Seattle...

[Darnell Junior]

I'm a sucker for Griffey. He could get there in the 2010 playin DH. After that I'll go A-Rod, Jeter, Ichiro. 3,000 is a lot of hits. On a side note Jason Kendall is surprisingly high for career hits at Catcher.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Griffey may get the chance to DH until 2010 (if he indeeed wants to) due to his name and reputation, but if he does, whatever team gives him that chance is dumb. He's going to be 39, and he will have hit too poorly for a DH 2 out of the last 3 seasons.

[kramnoj]

Griffey may get the chance to DH until 2010 (if he indeeed wants to) due to his name and reputation, but if he does, whatever team gives him that chance is dumb. He's going to be 39, and he will have hit too poorly for a DH 2 out of the last 3 seasons.

 

He won't hit like one of the top DHs, but there are usually a team or three that employee DHs that peform at or below the level of Griffey in his recent off years. It is probably true that his salary won't match his performance, but that is true of most free agents.

[SenatorShriv]

Pujols needs to average almost 200 hits for the next 8 years to make it to 3,000. He is listed as being 28 years old. I think he can (and will) make it to 3,000 but I see absolutely no way he makes it to 4,000. He has to play just as well in his next 8 years as he did his first 8 years in the league just to make it to 3,000 by the age of 36.

[bullox]

I really don't know if Pujols will make 3,000. The way he's been hobbling around out there he looks about 10 years older than his listed age.

[joepepsi]

Of course when you try and project a 28 year olds counting stats it' s a sort of throwing-darts-at-a-number-while-blindfolded sport. Albert's been averaging 579 at bats over his first 7 seasons. If he continues to hit .353 this year and get his 579 AB's, he'll have 1549 hits. Pete Rose after his age 28 season had 1327, putting Pujols 222 ahead of the pace.

 

If Albert plays through his age 42 season and averages 150 hits a season for the next 14 seasons, he'll end up with 3600+ hits. So, yeah, at this point it seems an insurmountable task for him to get to 4,000. On the other hand, he's young enough he can move even farther ahead of the pace for the next several seasons. He started playing everyday at such a young age he's been able to put up big counting stats while still young. He's the type of player who could play a long time, big power, high on base and batting averages, defensive position that is not too physically demanding.

 

True his chances at this point may only be 2%, but he must have the best chance of any player in the game today.

[Fatter than Joey]

Pete Rose after his age 28 season had 1327, putting Pujols 222 ahead of the pace.

 

Rose was a bad player in his 40s -- plus he managed as well for ~2.5 seasons so he could control his ABs.

 

True his chances at this point may only be 2%, but he must have the best chance of any player in the game today.

 

You are probably right.

 

Ichiro probably could have given Rose a run for his money -- he has ~3100 professional hits already.