The Cyclical Pattern of Winning/Losing

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I personally believe the fundamental question is "win now versus win later". Clearly we are having a great year. We'll probably make the playoffs and may or may not ride a hot streak all the way to the World Series. The consensus of the board seems to be that we can not financially afford to field the same team next year because of raises due many of our elite players. The argument further evolves to establish that we can afford to field the same team next year, but that the cost of fielding that team might mean that we have players (Sheets/Sabathia in particular) who are signed at a premium price past their "elite years or value".

 

In basic terms, if we sign Sheets and Sabathia, we'll be great for 2009, probably 2010, and maybe 2011, but by 2012 we'll have $40 million tied up in players that might not be get producers. As a result, we'll lose other players and will need to "rebuild" again until we shed those contracts after 2015. If we don't sign Sheets and Sabathia, our starting pitching takes a big step backwards, but the future remains bright because we won't have financial commitments for six years and can probably resign Hart, Hardy, and keep Fielder through Arbitration.

 

As the Suppan thread highlights, I believe that the Free Agent Pitching market is almost always a massive failure. Suppan is signed at market value, but tying up significant money in a 4th or 5th starter probably isn't a wise investment. Spending the money on a #1 pitcher however might be the ticket. Clearly pitching has been the focal point of the recent World Series Champs. There is always going to be a major risk, but i think paying market price for mediocrity is simply a bad investment.

 

Igor noted in another thread that the "ideal combo" seems to be a mix of expensive/elite pitching and pre-FA young hitters. Everyone raves about Escobar, Gamel, Salmone, etc... so we should have natural replacements in 2-3 years for these players. I think pitching takes much longer to develop than hitting, and while the odds of having an "elite" pitcher pre-arby is very small. Pitchers normally take 2-3 years at a minimum to figure it out, and by the time they have 2-3 amazing years they are too expensive to sign. Batters (ala Braun) have 1-2 amazing years and since they are controlled for 4-5 more years they are eager to sign a "reasonable contract).

 

Bottom line: I say we "go for it" in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011........ and rebuild (if we must) in 2012-14

 

I'd prefer that much more than "going for it" in 2008, and then falling back to mediocrity in 2009/10 before "maybe" being good again in 2011 and 2012. I realize "going for it" would require Mark A/his partners to probably take a loss for a few years, but they'll dramatically increase the value of their property. Think about it, would you take on "$10,000" in debt iannually in home equity loans for 2-3 years knowing that 5 years from now your $200,000 house would double in value? Short term it makes you nervous but in the long term it makes you mucho dollars.

 

Clearly the "big 8" markets make money. With the small market teams, i think you can make money while you are getting good, but will probably "lose money" staying good. If you can win for 8-10 years consistently, you'll either be back to making money or your franchise has doubled in value and you can sell it.

 

Go for it Mark! this is an amazing run and I want it to continue beyond 2008

 

EDIT: removed excessive dots

[igor67]

Another way to look at the free agent market is elite players only. I'm not saying that it hasn't happened, but for longsih term contract for guys who have established star level track records and are still on the good side of 30, how many of those have actually blown up? You might see sometimes a team signed a guy and it was a poor fit because they spent money on one guy when they needed lots of talent, but it sure seems like the elite guys because they are so good are worth every penny.

[GB12]

I posted this in the Halladay thread:

 

"Yeah, I'm a big supporter of the "screw the future this is the year" mentality. We may never have a better shot at the World Series than we do this year, and certainly not within the next few years. What we have is a very good start, but with Halladay we'd become the favorites to win. Not only that but hw's locked up through 2010. If we're losing Sheets and Sabathia in the offseason that would do a lot to ease the pain. If we could get him without giving up Gamel, Jeffress, or anything on our major league roster (exception being if they want Suppan, McClung, Bush, or maybe Weeks) then go for it. I'd like to keep Escobar as well, but if he's what it'd take to get Halladay then so be it. Can you imagine going into a 7 game series with this rotation:

 

Game 1: CC Sabathia

Game 2: Ben Sheets

Game 3: Roy Halladay

Game 4: Manny Parra

Game 5: CC Sabathia

Game 6: Ben Sheets

Game 7: Roy Halladay "

[mothershipconnection]

One thing to remember is that with Yo coming back, we may have a rotation next year that's only a little worse than before the CC trade (Yo may only be a small step down from Sheets), and that's still solid. One trade for even a middle of the rotation guy could still keep us firmly in the division race next year.

[obobo55]

One thing to remember is that with Yo coming back, we may have a rotation next year that's only a little worse than before the CC trade (Yo may only be a small step down from Sheets), and that's still solid.

I agree to a point. Yo, Manny, Bush, Soup, McClung/Villy/acqusition could be a decent staff that keeps you in contention. In '82, we had Vuke, Caldwell, Moose Haas, McClure and eventually Sutton. In '92, it was Wegman, Bosio, Navarro, Bones, and eventually Eldred. I think it is possible the staff above could approach that level of ability. The biggest issue I see if we went with that staff is we would need a stellar bullpen that can log a bunch of innings as I don't see a whole lot of complete games.

 

Not sure if that type of rotation is enough to win in the postseason though. That is where an ace really puts you over the top. Could Parra or Yo be that guy for us next year? Possible I suppose, but it is a bit of a stretch to think they will.

[Brew Guzzler]

Not 100% sure but isn't Lincecum's contract up this year?

[PeaveyFury]

Lincecum is a free agent after 2012.