Will CC Run out of Gas?

[Samurai Bucky]

I was reading a fantasy BB blog where it mentioned CC ran out of gas towards the end of next year. I don't remember if he did or not. Heck, he was the Cy Young Award Winner!

 

I'm guessing he will get 13 more starts and let's say he averages 7 IP per start, that puts him at 236 for the year. Last year, he had 241. He looks like a horse out there. If the Brewers are up 6 runs in the 7th, do you pull him at all to give him a bit of a breather?

[The Ignitor]

Yes, I was thinking about this last night once Braun gave us a 3-0 lead. His next start is against the Cubs, and you don't want him to struggle against them because he's been racking up CG's. On the other hand, his pitch count was so low that I'm not sure yesterday was very taxing (106 pitches is a pretty normal night in the bigs, and only 2 more pitches than Looper threw through 5 innings). I think he'll get a couple extra days of rest with off-days in August. And depending how things look in late September (knock on wood), perhaps he'll skip a start to set him up for the postseason. But with the cost of acquisition of CC, I have feeling that the Crew will take every last pitch from CC that they can.

[bretsky07]

Not if he's sitting around 70 pitches after 7 like last night.

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

Here is CC's game logs from 2007. His best months were August and Sept and he had some rough outings in Oct against the Red Sox

 

CC 2007

[Mr QL]

if his pitch count is okay then i see no problem keeping him out there as long as possible

[JohnBriggs12]

CC is a smart pitcher. He doesn't waste pitches. He also paces himself during games. He's completed games because he saves his best stuff for the 9th inning. You also don't see hitters fouling off multiple pitches. Not since Steve Carlton in his prime, have I seen a lefthander with the stuff and moxie of Sabathia and Carlton was as durable as they get.

[brewcrew00]

Does anyone have his pitch counts from his four starts? I don't think the innings are an issue, but rather how many pitches he's throwing. Can't really check on it at work here, but from memory, he hasn't thrown an alarming amount.

[tristarscoop]

Last night: 106

July 18: 110

July 13: 122

July 8: 97 pitches through 6 innings

[Oldcity]

Colorado: 97

Cincinnati: 122

San Fran: 110

St. Louis: 106

 

Obviously that Reds game was high, but that should end up being an exception more than the rule. He's been incredibly efficient the last two games. As long as a good majority of his starts are under 115 pitches I'm just fine with his workload.

[JoeHova]

not exactly related, but I heard on ESPNews that Johan Santana has never thrown 120 or more pitches in a game in his career. That's pretty incredible and most likely explains why he only has 6 career complete games. I guess such a strict pitch count is working (looking at his results and lack of DL trips), but it's surprising.

[hauser42]

His pitch counts are the key and he surely is going to be ok as long as Ned and Maddux keep watch on him. He surely has been a huge shot in the arm for this whole staff.

[kmcasper23]

I am not worried. He is throwing less pitches in 9 innings than Parra or Bush are throwing in 6-7 innings so there is no problem.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Dude's 6-7 and probably over 300 lbs - not exactly a frame that can't handle 100+ pitches consistently. And while he's still relatively young, he's not fresh out of highschool. Unless he's throwing 125 pitches per start, there's no concern about him wearing down. Alot is made about all the complete games, but when you can get through 9 innings in less than 110 pitches, what's the big deal? People are looking for fire where there's no smoke regarding this.

 

Ted Lilly threw 115 pitces over 6 innings last night and Braden Looper went over 100 over 5 innings - where's the concern about their workloads?

 

IMO, the two Brewer starters' workloads that really need to be watched are Parra (youth, injury history, previous IP/year) and to a lesser degree Sheets (injury history, limited # of IP over the past 3 seasons). Sabathia's doing just fine.

[eanelson4]

This thread is pretty interesting and it got me doing some analysis (and projections) for CC. All figures are regular season only:

- Assuming 7 IP/ start (which is well above his career average BTW) * 12 projected starts remaining = 84 IP remaining
- 154.1 IP currently + 84 projected remaining = 238.1 IP Projected
- 84IP remaining * 15.9 career P/IP = 1336 remaining pitches + 2356 current = 3692 projected pitches
- 3692 projected pitches / 238.1 projected innings = 15.50 projected P/IP
- 84IP remaining / 9 = 9.33 * 7.46 career K/9 = 70 remaining K + 152 current = 222 projected K's
- 70 remaining K's / 2.56 career K/BB = 27 remaining BB + 42 current = 69 projected BB's
- 222 projected K / 69 projected BB = 3.22 projected K/BB
- 222 projected K / 238.1 projected innings = .9315 * 9 = 8.38 projected K/9
- 84IP remaining / 9 = 9.33 * 3.78 career ERA = 35 ER remaining + 57 current = 92 ER projected
- 92 ER projected / 238.1 IP projected = .3441 * 9 = 3.47 ERA projected

Obviously some of this doesn't pertain to this thread, but it is very interesting. All of the projections were based off of his career averages (except for IP which I figured it would be best to use 7 IP/start rather than his career average of 6.47 IP/start). Again, these numbers are conservative based on his career averages. I expect that his K's will be higher, BB's will be lower than projected (higher K/BB ratio). I wouldn't be suprised if his ERA was lower than projected as well.

Some interesting things to note:
- Projected 238.1 IP (2.1 IP less than 2007)
- Projected 3692 total pitches (125 more than 2007)

So these two crucial stats to a pitcher's stamina are nearly identical to 2007. So, if it is true that he wore down in 2007 (I have no idea if it is or not), it is POSSIBLE that he could wear down in 2008. Only time will tell. Hopefully that robust body of his holds up and gets us through the regular season and playoffs.

EDIT : It will be interesting (come the end of the year) to check out my projections compared to his final stats. Somebody make sure to remind me! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Does he have a 15 gallon tank or a 20 gallon tank? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

I think the question about C.C. is how effective is he going to be in 2009. The guy can pitch. He did struggle last year in the playoffs, but if he gets us there, I'll take my chances with him.

 

[zzzmanwitz]

He's averaging 13.18 pitches per inning since joining the brewers. That is like a walk in the park for a major league pitcher.

[InsomniacInkRoss]

stolen from a Cleveland fan:

 

He's at 108.8 pitches per start with the Brewers, compared to 107.5 with the Tribe.

 

2007 - 105.4

2006 - 104.9

 

Every year since 2002 (inclusive) - 100+

[Robideaux]

If he was going to be a Brewer next year, maybe I'd be a little more concerned about the innings starting to pile up. As it is, we paid a premium for him and I'm happy to get my money's worth.

[GamelToe]

Innings pitched is a deceiving statistic. You gotta look at how many pitches he's thrown.

[eanelson4]

If he was going to be a Brewer next year, maybe I'd be a little more concerned about the innings starting to pile up. As it is, we paid a premium for him and I'm happy to get my money's worth.

You are looking at 2009. This thread is about 2008. The question here is whether he will wear down at the end of this season, not if he will or won't be fine for next season. There is some concern that he wore down at the end of 2007 and could wear down at the end of this season. If he did wear down at the end of 2007, based on my projections, his numbers as far as IP and # of pitches thrown will be almost identical...signaling that he could wear down this season as well.

 

Again, I have no idea if he did or didn't wear down, however. I didn't see him pitch last season at all.

[RickieDROPSbombs]

Believe me the man has done it his whole career, he can handle the work load hes taking.

[Robideaux]

He was lights out last year for the last two months of the regular season.

 

August ERA: 2.57

September ERA: 2.37

 

He had a bad postseason (8.80 ERA in 15 IP). He was mediocre in two of his postseason starts:

 

Oct 4, 2007: 3 runs in 5 IP, 4 hits, 6 BB, 5 K

Oct 18, 2007: 4 runs in 6 IP, 10 hits, 2 BB, 6K

 

And he was awful in one start:

 

Oct 12, 2007: 8 runs in 4 IP, 7 hits, 5 BB, 3 K

 

Overall, in the playoffs his walks were way up from career norms, and he gave up way more flyballs (51% groundballs) than during the regular season (57% groundballs) resulting in surrendering more home runs(1 every 5 IP) than typical for him (1 every 12IP).

 

I guess there are a number of ways to read this data.

 

1. He was worn out. Lost command, couldn't locate, etc.

2. His three postseason starts were against the Yankees, @ Boston, and Boston. The 2007 Yankees led baseball in runs scored with 968 (the most by a Yankees team since 1937!). Boston was 4th in baseball with 867 runs scored. Good offenses=more runs scored than average

3. Some mumbo-jumbo about wilting under the intense spotlight of the playoffs.

4. Our good friend Small Sample Size.

5. Some combination of all/some of these factors.

 

In summation, I guess I'd pull him if the game is in hand (or if he is hitting 120+ pitches), but I'd roll the dice that his postseason last year was simply an anomaly, and not indicative of the beggining of a trend or pattern.

[kramnoj]

Punny nickname from the D-List this morning. CG Sabathia. I laughed.

[sbrylski]

Punny nickname from the D-List this morning. CG Sabathia. I laughed.

2008 NL Complete Game Leaderboard

Sabathia - 3
Sheets - 3

Cook - 2

Hamels - 2

Kuroda - 2

Webb - 2

(A bunch tied with 1)

[kramnoj]

In case it wasn't obvious, I laughed because I thought it was funny, not because I thought it was wrong.