What to do with J.J. Hardy - he's putting together a great year

[brewerguy71]

If Hardy will sign with us long term, I vote we either:

1) Replace Rickie Weeks with Escobar

2) Trade Escobar for Starting Pitching

To put Escobar at 2B would be a complete waste of his talents (kind of like hitting Weeks leadoff). If you need Hardy so much, why not put him at 2B? The more I think about it, though, maybe Hardy could be a decent 2B...I just dont want to give up on Weeks. He is a good hitting coach away from being a very good, Chase Utley type of hitter, to give up on that would be a shame. The reality here is that I think that Escobar and Weeks have upside, Hardy doesnt, imho.

 

His offense is definitely ahead of Bill Hall, but would currently rank him as about the 10th best 3B in the NL. If Gamel is the heir apparent to the 3B job he should be much better than that.

 

My opinion, when the time comes, is to trade Hardy for starting pitching. Hardy has a bat that has a record of success. He has been propped up this year at the SS position because of lapse years by Tulowtizki and Rollins. Escobar is barely a top 100 prospect, he wouldnt bring a great starting pitcher, Hardy would.

 

 

(fixed code --1992)

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Weeks is also one bad college season away from being a 10th round pick and an afterthought. He had amazing college numbers but nothing special in the minor leagues. I think Weeks might be one in the long line of players that simply could not make the jump from metal bats in college to wood bats in the pros.

 

I'm all in favor of bringing up Escobar as a bench player and super-sub next year. If he gradually shows he can hit MLB pitching, i consider moving Hardy from SS to 2B. But until Escobar shows that his bat can play in the lineup, i see no reason to move Hardy off short. There are much bigger defensive holes on the field (namely 2B.

 

Why move Hardy when we can move Escobar. There is nothing i've seen that can prove to me that Escobar would be a better defensive shortstop than JJ Hardy. Until he proves something i think that is an absurd notion. Escobar might make highlight real plays in the minor leagues on a weekly basis, but so does JJ Hardy, in the MAJORS.

 

If Escobar is as good defensively as you think he is, he maximizes his value to us right now as a "super sub". That allows him to get his feet wet on offense without us risking having a complete black hole in our lineup.

[sbrylski]

He had amazing college numbers but nothing special in the minor leagues.

 

He didn't spend a lot of time down there, but he had an okay season at AA as a 21 year old, then was killing AAA pitching to the tune of a 1.090 OPS at age 22 for a half season before his call up. He had an .807 OPS with a .374 OBP in the major leagues last season. I think he can hit wood bats fine.

[TooLiveBrew]

The notion that the main & most accurate way to criticize Weeks is through his offense is just mind-boggling to me. It's in the exact same vein as 'OMG!1!! PRINCE Fielder NEEDS to EAT MEAT to have HR power!' stuff, imo.

 

Hardy is a great luxury to have. He's well above average right now as an offensive performer, and a steady but unspectacular SS. Moving him to 2B, with Prince on the same side, would be a near-disaster, defensively. You really couldn't draw up worse range for the right side. And no, the jokes about Weeks on defense don't make that an invalid point imo. Hardy's skills on defense would be relatively poorly used at 2B -- I think that, really, the best spot for his D is 3B... except that his bat is not as special at third like it is at SS.

 

His trade value relative to his talent right now is immense, and likely couldn't get any higher. I've said before, and I still feel this way: If the Brewers are lucky enough that Hardy would agree to a financially-depricating move to 3B, great. But if he's cogent enough to recognize that moving there would literally cost him millions of dollars, there's just no way he should agree.

[endaround]

Hardy's LD% is 14.4% while his BABIP is .303, so about 50 points higher than would be expected given how he has actually hit the ball. Hardy going forward will likely hit between his career numbers and what he did last year (so about a 775 OPS with a 330 OBP), making him very good bat at short and a multiple All Star in the AL, a decent 2B and a 3B that is ho hum and everyone would look to upgrade. And in general players in their prime don't change positions in the major leagues.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I think JJ plays above average defense and is as good as it gets in turning double plays. I really question whether Escobar is so much better defensively than Hardy that it will make up for a probable huge difference in offense. I would prefer to keep Hardy at short and trade Escobar.

[Tbadder]

I think what makes most sense is Escobar to 2nd and keep JJ at short. If the Brewers retain Fielder, a big if but lets pretend, then we need someone with extreme range to make up for Prince's...ah...shall we say anti-range.

 

Other thoughts: If JJ keeps putting up 20 to 25 HRs and a .280 to .295 average he'll be a Brewer for the shortest term possible, which is a good reason to keep Escobar at Nashville as long as possible.

[JonnyLungs]

I'm not the biggest fan of putting Escobar at 2nd base. To me, that is a waste of his extraordinary defensive talents. And I mean extraordinary. I caught a good amount of Escobar down in spring training and was amazed at how good he is defensively. Many times there'd be a shot up the middle that I'm assuming would be a base hit, but Alcides would get there with relative ease and throw the guy out right on the money. I don't claim to be a scout, but I know a very very talented defensive shortstop when I see one. I don't see too many scouts saying his defense is overrated, either. I could see him being a ?20 run guy at SS.

 

I might be a little hesitant to trade JJ after this year, but I'd probably look to do it after 2009. JJ is a very good player but I don't see him moving off shortstop. A trade could be a win-win for JJ and the Brewers at some point assuming we get a decent haul for him and Escobar can hit his own weight (which wouldn't be too hard). JJ would get to stay at SS and reap the rewards when he hits free agency.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I'm a bit confused. We all seem to agree that Hardy plays plus defense at SS. Yet most in this thread argue that he doesn't have the range to play 2B. I don't see anybody attacking JJ's arm strength, so one figures that the only advantage he might have on JJ is range. It also seems (from this thread) that the argument is that one needs more range to play 2B than SS (especially given having a liability with Prince at 1B).

 

Summarizing all that informatioin, it would only seem logical to move Escobar to 2B. I/m not sure that I agree, but the point made in this thread is that based on range, 2B is the most difficult position to play in OUR infield. Since 2B is already an offensive weakness in our lineup, Escobar's bat could play there if he upgraded our biggest hole (defensively) in the lineup.

 

In looking at offensive numbers, i take issue with the fact that several people seem to think Hardy's #s will decline, and Weeks numbers are going to magically improve. The whole "Weeks has been unlucky" argument doesn't hold any water with me. Rather than using his 2nd Half 2007 numbers to project his future, i am completely discrediting those stats as an outlier. In the other 3+ seasons with Weeks at the big leagues, he has put up numbers similar to his 2008 numbers. He's also quickly approaching his "prime years".

 

Here is the most frustrating thing for me: The pro Rickie Weeks crowd always points to one of two things to claim he's going to be an Elite 2B: 1) Use Brandon Phillips as proof that Weekly will break out if we trade him before Age 27. 2) Weeks has shown (in 2nd Half 2007) that he has the potential to be an elite 2B

 

Both of the above arguments however don't hold a whole lot of water because Weeks has had ONE good half in seven halves of MLB baseball, and Phillips is ONE example of a player who struggled suddenly breaking out. JJ is entering his prime and based on the numbers he's put up in the past two seasons, i'd project him at .280/.340/.480 in the next 2-3 years and neither Rickie Weeks nor Escobar will be able to come close to matching those numbers.

 

I don't believe that Weeks is unlucky, i simply believe he isn't very good. If he puts up better than a .230/.330/.400 line over the next 2-3 years i'd be stunned. To get better, we need to get rid of dead weight (Weeks), not a multi-year All-Star calibur players (Weeks). The best solution (if Escobar's bat will play) is to have Escobar play 2nd. His defense is more valuable to us at 2nd and we remove the weakest link in our lineup (Weeks)

[sbrylski]

I'm a bit confused. We all seem to agree that Hardy plays plus defense at SS. Yet most in this thread argue that he doesn't have the range to play 2B. I don't see anybody attacking JJ's arm strength, so one figures that the only advantage he might have on JJ is range. It also seems (from this thread) that the argument is that one needs more range to play 2B than SS (especially given having a liability with Prince at 1B).

 

Summarizing all that informatioin, it would only seem logical to move Escobar to 2B.

 

Both arguments are flawed.

 

If JJ can play around average defense at SS, he can handle 2B fine.

 

Escobar's greatest asset is his defense, it would be counterproductive to move him. Not to mention if Hardy's bat doesn't play as well elsewhere, Escobar's likely would do even worse with a position change.

 

Hardy is moving to 3B, 2B or another organization by 2010. There is little doubt about that, IMO. The argument for 3B over 2B is his defensive abilities might translate into improved defense at 3B rather than the same at 2B. Argument against 3B is that his bat goes from good/great to average for his position. We'll have to see how Gamel turns out, but I'm guessing 3B is the least likely of the three options, and another organization is the most likely.

 

In looking at offensive numbers, i take issue with the fact that several people seem to think Hardy's #s will decline, and Weeks numbers are going to magically improve. The whole "Weeks has been unlucky" argument doesn't hold any water with me.

 

People aren't necessarily using past results or cherry picking periods of success to project these guys future performance. Its definitely part of the equation, but going deeper into the secondary stats (like BABIP and LD%, often cited here) can tell how sustainable a players performance, or lack of it, could be.

[dadofandrew]

2B do not need as much range. They can play deeper because their throw is much shorter. Loretta was a 2B for most of his career, and he was also a SS with little range.

 

Escobar will be the SS eventually. The decision may well be Weeks or Hardy. Given a variety of factors, it would seem JJ is more likely to stick around.

[bcf5575]

moving escobar to 2b doesnt make any sense - the guy is a stud SS. JJ is a good defensive player, Escobar will be a great defensive player. JJ would have to move spots if both are on the team.

 

I am not sold on JJ. He is very mediocre offensivley for long stretches, followed by short bursts of being unbveleivably hot. He has never been able to substain it though. He is a bit of a mystery in my mind in how he puts up big chunks of his numbers for the year in what seems like a 3-4 week span.

[RightFieldCoder]

The other thing to remember is how much different playing 2B is from SS. On a ball hit to SS's right, he's running at an angle away from 1st. A 2B is running directly away from the bag. On a DP ball the SS only takes throws coming from the direction of 1B and has to throw it back in the same direction. A 2B must take a ball and throw it at a 90 degree angle or more different direction from the catch. There may be a couple of bad plays if you take a career SS and put him at 2B.

 

I don't have a good answer to solve our infield situation. But I am very happy that we're looking at the team and realizing there aren't enough lineup spots for good players on our team.