Ray Durham a Brewer, Dillon to AAA

[rluzinski]

If anything, I could see this just putting more pressure on Weeks. Unless people are questioning his work ethic, I can't see any other reason to think this should make Weeks play better.

[joshua502000]

DM was on ESPN radio after the game tonight for about a 3-4 min segment. He reaffirmed that Yost and him talked about the trade and that Weeks is the starter and that Durham would provide 1-2 starts a week and another left handed bat off the bench.

[BrewCrewForever]

If anything, I could see this just putting more pressure on Weeks. Unless people are questioning his work ethic, I can't see any other reason to think this should make Weeks play better.

Yeah, and I think Weeks does try and plays the game very hard. Just not very good, at least this season.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't think it means that he wasn't "trying" this year, I think maybe it could light a fire though. It also could put more pressure on him and cause him to press more so it could go both ways. I was just stating the best case scenario in my post above. Sometimes a trade like this can make another player refocus and they can play better, although that doesn't seem likely.

 

Now that we're at it, here's the most likely scenario:

 

Weeks continues to play like he has been and Yost goes to a platoon to get the best offensive advantage.

 

Updated Marcel Projections:

 

Durham: .259 / .335 / .412 / .747

Weeks: .247 / .353 / .409 / .762

So do these stat people just like to discount 263 AB's in 2008 where Durham did a hell of a lot better than that? If guys like Marcel are so good at predicting the future, why aren't they GM's?

[BrewCrewForever]

So do these stat people just like to discount 263 AB's in 2008 where Durham did a hell of a lot better than that? If guys like Marcel are so good at predicting the future, why aren't they GM's?

 

Nice! Love that post. Projections are just projections. Not the concrete truth of will or does happen.

[Bucky Rules]

Rickie's at a .405 OBP clip for the last two weeks. He might already be starting his big 2nd half (from a glass half-full kind of perspective). I love the pickup of Durham, though, for two guys that were apparently unlikely to ever see the Brewers 25 man roster.

[splitterpfj]

It's really hard to project Durham's 2008 results, based on his prior three seasons.

 

In 2006, Durham had an unexplainable power surge, which saw him set career highs (by far) in several categories - he doesn't have another season with a SLG percentage within 50 pts of that season. In 2007, Durham's legs were not healthy, and the bottom dropped out of his numbers - he doesn't have another season with an OBP within 40 pts of that one (on the negative side).

 

It seems likely to me that Durham will never provide the power he did in 2006, or collapse to the level he did in 2007, both look like complete aberrations.

 

He's been healthy this season, and he has hit very well, now he comes into a situation where his manager can pick and choose the matchups, to his own benefit.

 

Maybe Durham won't maintain the .385 OBP he currently has on the season, but given his production to this point in the season, (which would seem to dispel the possibility of diminished skills), looking at his career OBP of .352, and knowing that he'll be able to sit against the worst matchups for his skills - I have no problem predicting success for him throughout 2008...as long as the legs hold up.

 

The Brewers really do seem to be a great match for what Ray Durham can do at this point in his career. He won't have to play every day, he'll be the first left-handed option as a pinch hitter, and they've got two options waiting as late-inning defensive replacements, (which will partially offset his biggest weakness). To me, it just looks like a great fit, he's good at things this team needed to improve on, but he won't asked to meet unrealistic expectations. He just needs to do what he does, and fill his role, no one is expecting him to play like a 28-year-old.

[SeriesFinale]

Not much to add (like a good chunk of you, I don't see the down side right now in bringing in a veteran bench lefty at that cost), I just thought you guys might like this photo. It's of crummy quality but I took it of Ray-Ray and Mark A meeting each other (for what I assumed was the first time ever by the body language, hand on the shoulder etc) in the tunnel after today's game...check out TH hovering!

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v492/SeriesFinale75/IMG_5086.jpg

 

I definitely got the feeling from Durham he was ready to join the Brew Crew, no "I'm devastated" here, and I think those of us down there made him feel welcome, but you could also tell it was a little bittersweet. He's a 36 year old family man who'd been with the Giants for some time now (played in the Series with them, etc)...it couldn't have been easy to say goodbye. He was class though, came over to sign autographs and say Hellos and Goodbyes to Brewers' and Giants' fans alike.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v492/SeriesFinale75/IMG_5088.jpg

 

Edit: Wow, looking at these photos now he looks down but I can tell you that wasn't his demeanor at the time

[mothershipconnection]

If guys like Marcel are so good at predicting the future, why aren't they GM's?

 

The same reason computer programmers don't run software companies - it's a different skill to be able to interpret data vs. running a franchise. They do one small part of a GM's job.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

The same reason computer programmers don't run software companies - it's a different skill to be able to interpret data vs. running a franchise. They do one small part of a GM's job

Then why aren't they advisers of GM's or something? To my knowledge, this guy just sits in his basement and plugs numbers, but maybe he actually does work for a team or something.

[ELCABALLO45]

Updated Marcel Projections:

 

Durham: .259 / .335 / .412 / .747

Weeks: .247 / .353 / .409 / .762

I don't get how they can project Weeks to do that well, besides for less then a month last year he has been.. well not good.

 

And I know BA is not everything but it sucks when the best projection for your 2nd baseman is a .259 avg.

[BrewCrewForever]

Great pics SeriesFinale! Thanks.

[rluzinski]

So do these stat people just like to discount 263 AB's in 2008 where Durham did a hell of a lot better than that?

 

They are updated for the current seasons stats. If they weren't, Weeks' projection would have been better and Durhams worse.

 

If guys like Marcel are so good at predicting the future, why aren't they GM's?

 

the Marcel projection is a weighted average of each player's stats over the last three years, adjusted for age. Nothing crazy about it. Just common sense. Every GM should be starting with something very similar when trying to guess future expected performances. To it, I'm sure they add a lot of additional information, as they should. A smart GM should be able to beat Marcel the monkey over the long haul. Even the fans (as a group) can beat it (although, their advantage is subtle).

 

It's just a nice, objective, solid foundation for these kind of conversations. What is not a solid foundation is quoting a guys numbers over the first 90-some games of a season.

[istanbultaye]

I Split BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
_________________________________
April .202 .336 .346 .682 .228
May .211 .320 .376 .696 .229
June .250 .309 .375 .684 .308
July .234 .308 .383 .691 .333

What I find interesting is that even with Weeks' BAbip normalizing, his OPS and whatnot haven't improved in the past two months. Of course, he missed time in June due to injury, and there was an all star break and a week left in the month for July.

[Oldcity]

I don't get how they can project Weeks to do that well, besides for less then a month last year he has been.. well not good.

 

And I know BA is not everything but it sucks when the best projection for your 2nd baseman is a .259 avg.

So the projection overall is low, but you don't see how they can project Weeks to meet it?

 

[danzig6767]

Updated Marcel Projections:

 

Durham: .259 / .335 / .412 / .747

Weeks: .247 / .353 / .409 / .762

Durham hasn't had an OBP under .350 since 2001 except for last year when he had injuries dogging him. One reason i like his chance to keep getting on base well is Durham has always drawn walks at a very good clip and except for last year, has always carried either a very solid or above average batting average. Sure anything is possible, but everything about Durham in his career numbers looks to me that a .335 OBP is far more unlikely than a .350 OBP or higher.

I wouldn't just go right to a strict righty/lefty platoon with Weeks and Durham, but i do like the option of having Durham to play against tough righthanded starters say twice a week unless Rickie finally shows there is a reason to think he's breaking out of his year long hitting funk.

 

 

 

[ELCABALLO45]

So the projection overall is low, but you don't see how they can project Weeks to meet it?

Yeah it does make little sense now that I think about it.

 

I think I'm just so sad in what Weeks has done this year that any chance I get to bash him I do it. I wanted him to be good so bad, I defended him over and over again, its got to the point where I don't think it will ever happen.

 

 

(edit: nested quote --1992)

[1992casey]

So do these stat people just like to discount 263 AB's in 2008 where Durham did a hell of a lot better than that?

 

It's exactly the opposite. 263 ABs is a small example, and statheads work to be careful not to be swayed by that. Anyway, the formula does what it does... no more, no less. What one thinks personally would be irrelevant when it comes to computing the numbers.

 

Also note that rluzinski wasn't quoting the Marcel projections to back up his opinion in reply #44. He was simply trying to provide information we wouldn't have had otherwise and using the stats to provide some context.

 

And while these statheads aren't necessarily becoming GMs, they've certainly gotten the attention of GMs. More than one guru who's made his name on the internet has ended up employed by a GM. If it's not an internet guru being employed, it's another accomplished stathead. Most teams have them.

 

The bottom line is that stats keep people honest. Once one sees the stats, they can certainly be questioned. But on the other hand, the stats can temper enthusiasm or disdain that could occur without them.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

It's just a nice, objective, solid foundation for these kind of conversations. What is not a solid foundation is quoting a guys numbers over the first 90-some games of a season.

Yeah, that's true, and that Marcel guy is a lot better at projecting than I am because I'm a biased fan. So at least we get objectivity out of it. I'll bet you 5 bf.net dollars that he does better than those projections though for the fun of it.

[rluzinski]

Maybe Durham won't maintain the .385 OBP he currently has on the season

 

The odds of him keeping an OBP THAT high are very low.

 

Then why aren't they advisers of GM's or something? To my knowledge, this guy just sits in his basement and plugs numbers, but maybe he actually does work for a team or something.

 

On this matter, your knowledge is lacking. Marcel is not a person:

"Actually, it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor."

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/marcel/

 

Every projection system needs to at least understand sample error, something this system takes into account and most baseball fans know nothing about.

 

At this point, it's fair to assume that the majority of GMs have statistical advisers, to one degree or another. Do your homework.

I'll bet you 5 bf.net dollars that he does better than those projections though for the fun of it.

 

What makes you think I want the under?

[Robideaux]

Then why aren't they advisers of GM's or something? To my knowledge, this guy just sits in his basement and plugs numbers, but maybe he actually does work for a team or something.

First of all, Marcel is not a guy sitting around in his basement, he's a monkey. I'm not sure if the basement is his preferred simian hang out spot, but at least he'd never be lonely...you know, with all of those dorks sitting down there in their underwear and such.

Second, those dorky stathead guys are advisers to GM's across the league. Almost every club has someone employed in this capacity. Of course, some baseball teams still make them work in the basement and never listen to them.

 

And, get this, when nobody's around some GM's secretly look at numbers that describe how effectively their employees are doing their jobs. Crazy huh?

 

As far as the Marcel Projections for Durham, I take them with a grain of salt. Marcel's methodology is pretty crude. 2007 pulls down Durhams projection for this season too far. He's not great, but 350/415 wouldn't seem unreasonable given his track record. Not a bad bench guy.

[logan82]

Weeks has had a lines of

2007 .235/.374/.533

2006 .279/.363/.404

and a career line of .242/.350/.400

 

His career line includes the 361 PA from this year which accounts for 21% of his career PA. He has had 2 years better than the Marcel projection and a career line before this year better also. I don't think those projections are out of line at all. He is having a down year to this point, but I would still expect him to perform up to his projection from now going forward.

[1992casey]

Marcel isn't a "guy" at all. Call it a monkey if you'd like, but it's a system named by Tom M. Tango. If you look at splitter's post in reply #56, you can see why this system helps out as an evaluation tool. The combination of Durham's recent small samples don't coincide.

 

The system could be wrong, too, but it tosses some objectivity into the mix. Different systems provide other objective analysis. The more information that can be obtained, the better.

[TooLiveBrew]

Then why aren't they advisers of GM's or something? To my knowledge, this guy just sits in his basement and plugs numbers, but maybe he actually does work for a team or something.

 

TWR, why is it that you so often take the view that statistical analysis is antagonistic? I just don't understand why you're so quick to scoff, taunt, & in some cases mock the hard work that people do in the hopes that fans like you & me can improve our understanding of the game.

 

 

As far as the Marcel Projections for Durham, I take them with a grain of salt. Marcel's methodology is pretty crude. 2007 pulls down Durhams projection for this season too far. He's not great, but 350/415 wouldn't seem unreasonable given his track record. Not a bad bench guy.

 

Great points Robideaux. Marcels is supposed to be a crude 'quick & dirty' projection; certainly not intended to do anything more than make a relatively well-educated guess.

 

I'm certainly not an expert, but if Durham can go .350/.400/.750 for the rest of the way, I think we should be very happy.

[Ennder]

If you are using fewer than 1000 AB to judge a hitter you are not getting very useful results. Sorry but trying to judge a hitter by 3 months of play is just futile. If you want to judge Weeks you use his career stats and not just this season.