At what point should the Cubs and their fans get nervous?

[kilgore37]

This just shows you how long the actual season is and how many ups and downs there are. Honestly though, at this point....I would have to think the Brewers are the favorites to win the division and have home field advantage in the NL

Whoh now. Its barely past the all star break. Granted it's hard not to be excited

 

[homer]

BCU,

Like you said, it's a long season....and the Brewers are still in second place. I'd say the Cubs are the favorites as long as they're in first.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cubs are still the favorite to win the division until they fall into second place (if, not necessarily when), but I think the odds of them cruising to a near double-digit game division lead and championship are much lower than they were about 30 games ago, when there was alot of discussion on this board about rooting for the Cubs to win games against other potential contending teams.

 

I think many of their fans just assume that once they get home, they'll go back to dominating teams - problem with that theory is they actually start playing some decent NL East teams and teams that hit lots of home runs - wrigley in August plays like a beer league softball park, which is going to make winning those games more difficult.

 

whether Cub fans realize it or not, the Brewers have played much better than them for the last 2 months, and they aren't going anywhere.

[obobo55]

So the Cubs should be

 

Sabathia

Sheets

Parra

Bush

 

Me Likey

Hmmm, anyone want to post the stats for those 4 over their last 5 starts (use Bush's home-only starts)?

Cubs should be throwing Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster, and Harden so it should be a real close series.

 

OK, I did the work...here are stats for their last 6 starts (Bush home-only):

 

CC 1.91 ERA (2.19 over last 9)

Ben 3.29 (2.85 over last 9)

Parra 2.08 (2.51 over last 9)

Bush 1.64 (2.70 over last 9, including 3 road games)

 

Wow, of those four starters, Ben is the worst? Small wonder the team has been doing well...

[rluzinski]

I would have to think the Brewers are the favorites to win the division and have home field advantage in the NL

 

Is it because the Cubs have the better record or more runs scored or a better team ERA that makes you say that? The Cubs are by no means lock but let's keep things in perspective.

[orca1963]

I really don't want the Cardinals in the playoffs. That is not good team and if they can make the playoffs it means Baseball has hit the same level of 'parity' as football IE any crappy team with a few lucky breaks can make the playoffs because they give the weaker teams all the advantages. That just isn't good for sports.

Why do so many say the Cards are not that good. Bottom line is any Tony LaRussa team is going to be good and a contender. This team also has a great catcher, first baseman and one heckuva an outfield. If you underestimate the Cardinals you set yourself up. The fact that they won the WS as a wildcard team is not a fluke, it is an extremly well managed well put together ball club. As a Brewers fan I can admire that team greatly and hope that we take notes from them. This is not a lucky team. They are a good team.

 

 

 

Earlier this season when folks were calling for Yost's head I asked the question who would you replace him with. Tony would be my fantasy choice (because I know it would not happen) and when I mentioned that a few stated how they disliked him. He is, IMO one damn good manager.

 

Now that I have that off my chest, Yost outmanaged him tonight. Sweet.

[endaround]

Nope, LaRussa outmanaged Yost by a wide margin, he went all out to try to win the game which left his bench empty but it was the right call. There is absolutely no excuse for Torres hitting in the 10th with a man on 2B when you have a bullpen that could easily cover 9 more innings if needed and three players left on the bench.

[Invader3K]

One Cubs fan I know on another message board has gone into total "The Cubs are doomed to lose, and the Brewers and Cardinals cannot be stopped", type panic mode. It's really pretty funny.

 

It should be interesting to see where the standings shake out by August 1st.

[fondybrewfan]

Nope, LaRussa outmanaged Yost by a wide margin, he went all out to try to win the game which left his bench empty but it was the right call. There is absolutely no excuse for Torres hitting in the 10th with a man on 2B when you have a bullpen that could easily cover 9 more innings if needed and three players left on the bench.

We already had a 1 run lead at that point, I would much rather have Torres pitch a 2nd inning than throw Villy out there. I had no issue with that move at all. Yost almost got lucky to because Torres scorched that ball. If the game was tied he obviously would have pinch it but given the circumstances I probably would have done the same thing, Torres doesn't give up to many homers and Villy on occasion has problems keeping the ball in the yard

[Fear The Chorizo]

It wasn't the Torres move that I disliked - it was sending Mota out in the 6th to protect a 1 run lead.

 

A manager always looks better when his players produce - Yost was playing with fire in the late innings, and the teams' continued inability to tack on a few more runs with all the oppotunities they had made the game closer than it needed to be. The Cards made some good (and some lucky) plays on hard hit balls, but the Brewers didn't have an offensive inning without getting men on base - gotta score more than 3 runs in 9 innings.

 

Anyone else think with the addition of Durham to the team that Counsel may be used as a late inning defensive replacement at 2nd? There were two tough plays in the bottom of the 9th that Weeks couldn't make, but a solid defensive infielder makes at least one of those plays, which also keeps that game from going extras.

[Bucky Rules]

It wasn't the Torres move that I disliked - it was sending Mota out in the 6th to protect a 1 run lead.

I agree. We really need to turn Mota loose... or turn him into somebody else. The guy has pretty much stunk since 2004. He has pretty much stunk this year. I don't blame them for flipping Estrada for him and giving it a shot, but it's probably time to cut him loose.

But back to the topic of the thread... Rich Harden pitches awesome, the Cubs get shutout, the Cards and Brewers climb to within 2 games. The Cubs should be afraid. They should be very afraid.

[bbrauch2000]

I would think the biggest concern would be the production of Fukudome right now. His OBP, BA and SLG% has dropped every month and he has been in an awful slump in July. Without a lot of history to back him up, one has to think if he will be able to adjust to the changes pitchers are making against him right now

[Menotti80]

Shouse has been pretty bad as of late. (I wasn't a Shouse fan going into this year).

First of all, Shouse had something like a 1.93 ERA going into the SF game on Sunday. And I dont think Shouse can be blamed whenever he gets knocked around by a righty. If Shouse pitches against lefties like he SHOULD be doing, his ERA would be even lower...

[dlk9s]

Should we be cheering for the Cubs to further distance the Dbacks from the wild card race?

If the Dbacks catch us, we have more problems than just that.

 

[Bucky Rules]

First of all, Shouse had something like a 1.93 ERA going into the SF game on Sunday. And I dont think Shouse can be blamed whenever he gets knocked around by a righty. If Shouse pitches against lefties like he SHOULD be doing, his ERA would be even lower...

Are you saying that you don't think Shouse should've pitched in the 9th inning on Sunday vs RHBs with a 7-2 lead? I ask because you stressed the word SHOULD.

[sgtcluels]

Yeah Men.. I'm not a Shouse fan because he's not used as he should be.. a LOOGY. Obviously if we are up a metric ton, we'll be fine. But Shouse should just face lefties and that's it. Same reason why I didn't like Ray "Bag of Donuts" King on the team, he wasn't used right IMO.

 

And welcome dies. It's good to see a Cubs fan talking baseball instead of how much the Brewers suck. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif It should be an interesting finish, both clubs suffer from the same thing, shakey BP. Hopefully our BP fixes it, and Lou continues to abuse Marmol. http://hirejimessian.com/2008/07/14/lou-piniella-hates-carlos-marmol/

[endaround]

If you pitch Shouse in that situation, guess what he'll give up baserunners and sometimes a bunch of runs. He's a LOOGY, He's always been a LOOGY and will always be a LOOGY. He can't get right handers out. If you definitely don't want to see Torres pitch you don't put Shosue in against all Rhers.

[Menotti80]

Honestly, no. I love Shouse, but I would use Shouse in loogy situations only so he won't get burnt out. remember, he may be playing for another month compared to the past few years. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif and he kinda getting up there in age...

[Bucky Rules]

OK... I had no problem with him pitching in that game on Sunday. He hadn't pitched in eight days. I'd just as soon see him get an inning in a game that he's unlikely to lose for us -- regardless of how many RHBs he faces. No matter how bad he is or isn't against RHBs, a five run ninth inning lead will be safe about 99% of the time, I would guess -- the Arizona game being in the 1%.

[cubfan1126]

And welcome dies. It's good to see a Cubs fan talking baseball instead of how much the Brewers suck.

Apparently you haven't been paying attention to my posts.

 

BTW, do you really put any stock in anything said at a site called Hire Jim Essian???

[crewcrazy]

I would think the biggest concern would be the production of Fukudome right now. His OBP, BA and SLG% has dropped every month and he has been in an awful slump in July. Without a lot of history to back him up, one has to think if he will be able to adjust to the changes pitchers are making against him right now

Fukudome has some crazy home/road splits. He's hitting close to .350 at home, but he's somewhere in the low-to-mid .100's on the road. I have no idea what's caused such a drastic slump, but it certainly looks like he's hit a wall (like a lot of people thought he would -- I remember his projections being fairly low). Watching the couple of Cubs games in Houston a few days ago, it looked like pitchers have stopped pitching him inside altogether, and they made him look foolish with the way he swings like a left-handed softball slap-hitter. Ichiro's able to do it because he's been able to make adjustments in his big league career -- I haven't seen Fukudome make those adjustments yet, and as a result, he's had some pretty ugly swings, like spinning around and ending up on one knee.

Despite their recent road problems, I still think the Cubs are one of the best teams in the NL -- Boston's going through a similar problems on the road, but everyone still seems to love them in the AL. I'd compare this rough stretch for the Cubs to the rough stretch the Brewers had early in the year -- it's not that they're unable to hit the ball hard; it's that they're hitting balls hard right at defenders. They hit a few rockets off of Randy Johnson last night that were lined right to outfielders or were robbed on spectacular defensive plays (like the Reynolds diving stop that's been a big highlight all morning on ESPN). Eventually those hits will start falling in again, and they're getting Soriano back sometime in the next week, which might ignite the offense. It's nice to see that the Brewers have taken advantage of the opportunity, though, and have picked up a lot of ground lately.

 

[sgtcluels]

Apparently you haven't been paying attention to my posts.

 

BTW, do you really put any stock in anything said at a site called Hire Jim Essian???

 

I guess I should have said more Cubs fans. Didn't mean to offend. That Marmol post was funny, especially move an oak desk full of books with your right arm. Thought even Cubs fan would find it funny.

[Thurston Fluff]

Bottom line is any Tony LaRussa team is going to be good and a contender.

 

Who managed the Cards last year a LaRussa impersonator? I agree the Cards are better than people give them credit for. They have a good offense and defense. The pitching has benefited from that but I still think they fade because they just don't have enough pitching. I know many people believe Duncan can fix any middle of the road pitcher and make them top of the rotation but Kip Wells sort of shot that theory down last year.

 

I'd compare this rough stretch for the Cubs to the rough stretch the Brewers had early in the year -- it's not that they're unable to hit the ball hard; it's that they're hitting balls hard right at defenders.

 

right on. They are a good team going through a rough stretch. Whether they really were as good as they appeared earlier in the season or if they simply beat up on bad teams for the most part is debatable. I thought they would be better than last year but didn't think they were as good as they looked earlier this year. The Brewers and Cubs are both slightly better than last year IMO. Should be a great finish to the season.

[lcbj68c]

LaRussa: "I dont care if I ran out of bench players, I wanted to get the game over quickly and hit the nearest pub before the DUI checkpoints get set up" "Burp"

[homer]

ARam is in a horrible slump too. After lighting it up in April/May he hit .791 OPS in June and is currently .734 OPS in July.