At what point should the Cubs and their fans get nervous?

[Fear The Chorizo]

"I would take that as an indication that the Brewers may not be able to catch the Cubs. "

 

I would take two series splits against the Cards on the road and the Cubs at home as an indication that the division race is going to be tooth and nail close until the last game. There are 3 teams within 3 games of each other at the top of the NL Central, and they play each other plenty down the stretch to make those head to head matchups a deciding factor. Also, here are a few interesting bits of schedule info:

 

Cubs - 3 games remaining against the NL West, against Arz this week

Cards - 10 games remaining against the NL West, all against Arz and LA

Brewers - 10 games remaining against the NL West, 7 against SD

 

Cards - 20 games remaining against the NL East, none left with the Nats

Cubs - 21 games remaining against the NL East, 3 left with the Nats

Brewers - 14 games remaining against the NL East, 4 left with the Nats

 

A three game lead can be easily attained by playing 7 more games against the weak sisters of the NL west to this point in the season, as the Cubs have compared to the Brewers and Cardinals.

 

Kerry Wood's about to head to the DL this morning due to his blister problem, although retroactively it probably won't be for long if it heals within the next week. I live in Chicago, and they've pretty much started getting nervous this weekend. Their line of thinking is that they played so well to start the season that there's no way they should only be a few games up on two teams for the division lead, especially since they haven't really had a prolonged losing streak at any point this year. Talk radio has gone from how the Cubs will walk to the division title to what trade Hendry needs to make to counter the Ray Durham trade (seriously) in the matter of a weekend....they should get a break if they win their series against the Dbacks as the Brewers and Cards are beating up on each other, but they're starting to look at the four game series the end of this month at Milwaukee and that last week road trip to New York and Milwaukee as big question marks.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cub fans are still in state of denial. They still delusionally see their team as having the best talent. They also believe (and are being told) nonsense about the Brewers that Ryan Braun is a terrible defensive LF despite a 1.000 fielding pct. and 6 assists, that Jason Kendall can't throw (25 of 53 caught stealing 47%), and that the Brewer bullpen is one of the worst of all time (never mind that 4 relievers-Torres, Stetter, Shouse, and Villanueva all have relief ERA's in the 2's). Heck half the Cub fans still think Turnbow is on the Brewer roster.

[sgtcluels]

Stetter probably will be gone tomorrow. Shouse has been pretty bad as of late. (I wasn't a Shouse fan going into this year).

 

We both suffer from the same thing, shotty bullpen with a strong offense. Seems we'll be in a fight for "how deep our SP will go" before we have to go to shaky BP. In that, I feel pretty good. Sheets and CC have shown some grit eating up innings. And if Soup can return to form, we should be able to chew a whole bunch of innings with out going to our shakey BP.

 

And we do have Turnbow on our team, he's just got a sweet Blue Glove.. his name is Mota.

[FVBrewerFan]

I thought there was a consensus back in May that it was a given the Cubs would win the division? Whaever happened to those stat gurus? Cards -2 and Brewers -3 with 70 games remaining may as well be called even as far as I'm concerned.

[JumpinMacFlash]

If Stetter is optioned down and Mota is not DFA'd, I really don't understand what's going on.

 

I don't think the Cubs should get that nervous because they do have a good team. The biggest alarm would probably be when Dempster comes back to earth, which I hope happens after July 31. I really don't think he's that good. If that doesn't happen, I don't see the issue for the Cubs. If their starters don't get worse, the bullpen isn't as big of a concern. Soriano is coming back and that should only help. Wood is on the DL, but it shouldn't be a long stint. I don't really see them fading.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I've also been surprised by how Braun is perceived to be atrocious in left field - he's not winning the gold glove there this year, but I think fans of opposing teams just assume he's awful defensively wherever he plays. Truth is, he's probably athletic enough to play in center if he would get better jumps on balls. He's plenty good to play in left, and I'd rate him ahead of every other starting left fielder in the NL central except for maybe Jason Bay. (Soriano, Lee, Dunn, and Duncan aren't exactly quality defenders).

 

Braun catches the ball when he can make a play, and there have only been a handful of misjudged plays he's made that have kept outs from being recorded. The disappointment defensively with Braun moving to left hasn't been his defense, it's been the continued poor defense from Hall + Branyan over at third.

 

The last time the Cubs actually played the Brewers, Gagne was still closing, Turnbow was still on the active roster, Mota was the 8th inning pitcher, nobody was hitting and Tony Gwynn was their primary pinch hit option. Since the world revolves around them apparently, it's no wonder why they picture the three stooges as prominent relievers in the current Brewer bullpen. For as much garbage as I hear from Cub fans about how the Cubs' team is so much different now than when they lost 4 of 6 against the Brewers earlier this season, I think the Brewers' roster is twice as different - and for the better.

[dlk9s]

I really don't want the Cardinals in the playoffs. That is not good team and if they can make the playoffs it means Baseball has hit the same level of 'parity' as football IE any crappy team with a few lucky breaks can make the playoffs because they give the weaker teams all the advantages. That just isn't good for sports.

Actually, I think it might be time to admit that the Cardinals are pretty good. And that's without Carpenter and without Wainwright for much of the season.

 

[GAME05]

I really don't want the Cardinals in the playoffs. That is not good team and if they can make the playoffs it means Baseball has hit the same level of 'parity' as football IE any crappy team with a few lucky breaks can make the playoffs because they give the weaker teams all the advantages. That just isn't good for sports.

the 2nd best record in the NL in the toughest division in the NL and they're not a good team? on paper, they've been surprising me, too, but i guess it just says what a good manager LaRussa is. i can't compare baseball to football, either. a lucky break one game in football is 1/16th of the season, and it's hard to think that a bad baseball team is going to get that lucky break and win 10 more games than they should.

[obobo55]

Also, here are a few interesting bits of schedule info:

 

Cubs - 3 games remaining against the NL West, against Arz this week

Cards - 10 games remaining against the NL West, all against Arz and LA

Brewers - 10 games remaining against the NL West, 7 against SD

 

Cards - 20 games remaining against the NL East, none left with the Nats

Cubs - 21 games remaining against the NL East, 3 left with the Nats

Brewers - 14 games remaining against the NL East, 4 left with the Nats

Yeah, the schedule differences for the teams are pretty stark. Both the Cubs and Cards have not played a game against the Marlins yet too. We managed just a 1-5 mark against the fish, but we are done with them. The games against the Padres, Nats, and Pirates (we play them 9 times, Cubs 6, Cards 5) are really what is in our favor, but we need to take advantage of those. 14 home games and 6 on the road against the teams at the bottom of each division. Wow, that is nearly a third of our remaining schedule (20 of 64).

OK, lets delve a little deeper. There are 5 teams in the NL that are 10 games under .500 or worse. The Cubs, Brewers, and Cards have completed their series against SF and COL. Cards and Cubs have finished their series against SD, while the Brewers haven't started. Cards are done with WAS, while the Cubs have 3 home games and the Crew gets 4 at home. Then you have the Pittsburgh discrepancy noted above. So assuming these teams are in fact the worst teams in the NL, the Crew plays them 20 times (14 at home), the Cubs 9 (6H), and the Cards 5 (2H).

 

Rluzinski should do a projection on our record for just those 20 games for us and see how many games we pick up in the standings... I don't think 15-5 would be too far from the realm of possibility.

[wallus]

I've also been surprised by how Braun is perceived to be atrocious in left field - he's not winning the gold glove there this year, but I think fans of opposing teams just assume he's awful defensively wherever he plays. Truth is, he's probably athletic enough to play in center if he would get better jumps on balls. He's plenty good to play in left, and I'd rate him ahead of every other starting left fielder in the NL central except for maybe Jason Bay. (Soriano, Lee, Dunn, and Duncan aren't exactly quality defenders).

Bay is a terrible outfielder in reality. I think Soriano and Braun are pretty close when you factor in ranger, neither are the most intelligent in terms of decision making out there.

[Thurston Fluff]

Seems we'll be in a fight for "how deep our SP will go" before we have to go to shaky BP.

 

This is why I think the Harden trade didn't do all that much for the Cubs. They have essentially traded a lot of depth for the best 5 inning pitcher in baseball who gets hurt an awful lot. Even if he stays healthy this guy is not good for the pen. Most of the national media think the Cubs have a lot stronger pen than the Brewers. I think both are still unknowns. They have Wood as a closer we have Torres. Why would one be considered so much more stable in that role than the other? If anything the advantage constancy/predictability wise should go to the Brewers. They have a great 8th inning man in Marmol but he has been anything but good lately. He might have been worn out a little by Pinella. After that they have the same as we do. A bunch of middle of the road veteran releivers who will do well in stretches and not so good in others. Two things that should play into our bullpen's favor is we have two innings eater type starters and a favorable schedule where they have one and a tougher schedule going forward. That should test the true merit of their pen.

[diesmitty]

Just wanted to point out that the Cubs just went 22-19 during a stretch where they played 29 of 44 games on the road (with 3 left to play), without one of their big boppers, their ace (for 2 starts), their closer (for possibly 10 games). They are now about go go on a stretch where they play 26 of their next 39 at home (where they are 37-12 this year), and their team will be healthy (for the time being).

 

Yes, I'm a Cubs fan. No, I'm not trying to troll. Just pointing out why a lot of Cubs fans aren't too worried.

 

That said, IMO the Brewers and Cubs are pretty much evenly matched, and it should be a great race to the finish. Just get these pesky Cardinals out of the race this week ok http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Thurston Fluff]

In that 22-19 stretch they had a road record of 10-16 and a home record of 11-4. The strength of schedule had them seeing teams below .500 in 39 games and only 12 vs teams with a winning record. Of those 12 games with above .500 teams they went 3-3 at home and 2-4 on the road. That means they played against losing teams on the road at a 8-12 clip. Just pointing out why Cub fans should be concerned. They have had the easiest end of the schedule and they couldn't get more than three games up on the third place team.

[obobo55]

Just wanted to point out that the Cubs just went 22-19 during a stretch where they played 29 of 44 games on the road (with 3 left to play), without one of their big boppers, their ace (for 2 starts), their closer (for possibly 10 games). They are now about go go on a stretch where they play 26 of their next 39 at home (where they are 37-12 this year), and their team will be healthy (for the time being).

 

Yes, I'm a Cubs fan. No, I'm not trying to troll. Just pointing out why a lot of Cubs fans aren't too worried.

 

That said, IMO the Brewers and Cubs are pretty much evenly matched, and it should be a great race to the finish. Just get these pesky Cardinals out of the race this week ok http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Lets take a look at that 37-12 record:

2-4 against the Brewers (Brewers haven't played the Cubs at home)

2-1 against Houston (Brewers went 3-0)

4-2 against Cincy (Brewers went 2-4)

5-1 against Pitt (Brewers went 3-0)

2-0 against NYM

3-0 against Arizona (Brewers went 3-0)

3-1 against SDP

4-0 against COL (Brewers went 2-2)

3-0 against LAD (Brewers went 1-2)

3-0 against ATL (Brewers went 2-1)

3-0 against CWS

1-2 against Baltimore (Brewers went 2-1)

2-1 against SFG (Brewers went 3-0)

 

So in comparable games (take out a 2-1 Pitt series to make it even):

MIL 21-10

CHC 25-6

A 4-game lead, 2 of which we made up head-to-head already at Wrigley. We still have those 7 games against the Pirates and Padres to make up further ground, not to mention the 7 Miller Park home games with the Scrubs.

 

[diesmitty]

In that 22-19 stretch they had a road record of 10-16 and a home record of 11-4. The strength of schedule had them seeing teams below .500 in 39 games and only 12 vs teams with a winning record. Of those 12 games with above .500 teams they went 3-3 at home and 2-4 on the road. That means they played against losing teams on the road at a 8-12 clip. Just pointing out why Cub fans should be concerned. They have had the easiest end of the schedule and they couldn't get more than three games up on the third place team.

Yeah we played bad on the road. I know, its a concern. We are the 2007 Brewers on the road. We did play 6 series against teams that currently occupy a playoff spot, and 5 of them were on the road. Plus we dealt with some bad injuries. Replace someone like Prince Fielder with someone like Craig Counsell in your lineup for 6 weeks (ok that example is slightly exagerated on both counts) and then play 2/3 of your games for a 7 weeks span on the road. Also for fun take our both your CFs, closer, ace for various parts of that time and then tell me if you'd be happy with an over .500 record during that stretch.

Anyways, I sound like an excuse filled Cub fan, and thats not my intention here. I'm just saying we're not that concerned because we know that we are a better team that we've been with a great schedule coming up. Do I think the Cubs will play .750 ball the next 26 home games in that stretch? I doubt it. But we will play better than the .450 we play on the road.

[diesmitty]

Just wanted to point out that the Cubs just went 22-19 during a stretch where they played 29 of 44 games on the road (with 3 left to play), without one of their big boppers, their ace (for 2 starts), their closer (for possibly 10 games). They are now about go go on a stretch where they play 26 of their next 39 at home (where they are 37-12 this year), and their team will be healthy (for the time being).

 

Yes, I'm a Cubs fan. No, I'm not trying to troll. Just pointing out why a lot of Cubs fans aren't too worried.

 

That said, IMO the Brewers and Cubs are pretty much evenly matched, and it should be a great race to the finish. Just get these pesky Cardinals out of the race this week ok http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Lets take a look at that 37-12 record:

2-4 against the Brewers (Brewers haven't played the Cubs at home)

2-1 against Houston (Brewers went 3-0)

4-2 against Cincy (Brewers went 2-4)

5-1 against Pitt (Brewers went 3-0)

2-0 against NYM

3-0 against Arizona (Brewers went 3-0)

3-1 against SDP

4-0 against COL (Brewers went 2-2)

3-0 against LAD (Brewers went 1-2)

3-0 against ATL (Brewers went 2-1)

3-0 against CWS

1-2 against Baltimore (Brewers went 2-1)

2-1 against SFG (Brewers went 3-0)

 

So in comparable games (take out a 2-1 Pitt series to make it even):

MIL 21-10

CHC 25-6

A 4-game lead, 2 of which we made up head-to-head already at Wrigley. We still have those 7 games against the Pirates and Padres to make up further ground, not to mention the 7 Miller Park home games with the Scrubs.

 

How can you assume the teams we played in April and May are the same as the teams you will play in August in September and vice versa? In fact how can you assume your team is the same? A perfect example is Arizona. You went 3-0 against Arizona, but you didn't have to face Webb or Haren. The Cubs went 3-0 against Arizona and we played Haren. The matchups arent the same, a lot of times the position players arent the same. So you can't matchup common games and expect you guys to play exactly the same as we did.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

Actually diesmitty you sound just like a Brewer fan rooting for his team. Nothing wrong with that. You should be excited about being in first place. That doesn't mean you shouldn't also be nervous. Basically i think the Cubs held serve so to speak.

As far as losing key players we have as well. We didn't have Gallardo for most of the year that was a crushing blow to our team. It'd be like losing Dempster.

Capuano was lost before the season even started and we have navigated through that and a couple other injuries during the toughest part of our schedule. If the Cubs can do as well as the Brewers did then they will win. I do think there should be concern that the Cubs did not put very much distance between them and the Brewers while having the favorable part of the schedule.

[obobo55]

How can you assume the teams we played in April and May are the same as the teams you will play in August in September and vice versa? In fact how can you assume your team is the same? A perfect example is Arizona. You went 3-0 against Arizona, but you didn't have to face Webb or Haren. The Cubs went 3-0 against Arizona and we played Haren. The matchups arent the same, a lot of times the position players arent the same. So you can't matchup common games and expect you guys to play exactly the same as we did.

 

I am not assuming anything. I just tried to point out that the Cubs dominance at home isn't all that special as the Brewers did fairly well against those same teams. If the Brewers sweep the Padres and Pirates in their next trips, the Cubs will have outpaced the Brewers 30-8 to 28-10. Will that happen? I don't expect it will, but it is not an incredible leap to think it might as we have handled the Pirates handily thus far and the Padres don't visit until after Sept 1st when they will be looking at their youngsters.

How will the Cubs fare when they face the Marlins, Philly and St Louis? The Crew went 6-4 against those teams at home. The Cubs face them for 14 of their remaining 32 home games in the 2nd half. None of those challenges remain for the Brewers home slate.

[BrewCityUnit]

I don't know about you guys....but the Cubs look pretty nervous to me. This is awesome.

 

Should we be cheering for the Cubs to further distance the Dbacks from the wild card race? Remember the Cubs won the division in May

[fondybrewfan]

As I noted in the game thread, the fans at northside baseball are in complete melt down mode.

 

They keep bring up that the Brewers were as much as 8.5 games back and now could be within 2.

 

Now that doesn't sound familar at all does it?

[bucks2281]

The series next week is going to be one of the most pivotal in Brewers history. That's both exciting and sad. The ticket prices on StubHub are through the roof for a game at Miller Park.

[fondybrewfan]

The series next week is going to be one of the most pivotal in Brewers history. That's both exciting and sad. The ticket prices on StubHub are through the roof for a game at Miller Park.

And if I am reading the calender right it will be CC, Sheets, and Parra correct?

 

The Houston series looks to be:

 

Parra

Bush

Suppan

 

So the Cubs should be

 

Sabathia

Sheets

Parra

Bush

 

Me Likey

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cub fans don't like to hear it, but the same argument they use to state that their team is much different than the one Milwaukee took 4 of 6 can be easily trumped by the difference in the Brewers' roster.

[rluzinski]

Should we be cheering for the Cubs to further distance the Dbacks from the wild card race?

 

Naa, just the Cardinals and Mets. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[BrewCityUnit]

This just shows you how long the actual season is and how many ups and downs there are. Honestly though, at this point....I would have to think the Brewers are the favorites to win the division and have home field advantage in the NL