At what point should the Cubs and their fans get nervous?

[BrewCityUnit]

I was under the assumption that the Cubs have already locked up the NL Central back in May....but after tonight's game it looks like the Cardinals will only be 2 games back with the Crew 3 games back. Should the Cubs be alarmed? Are they going to start feeling the pressure? What is the media going to do....they already said the Cubs clinched. What about the people in Wrigleyville? Back in May they sure were acting like they just won back to back NL Central titles.

 

One other thing...I thought one of the big differences between the Cubs and Brewers was the Cubs ability to win on the road, while the Brewers struggle on the road. Looks like the Cubs are 8 games under .500 on the road while the Brewers are 3 games under .500 on the road.

[crewcrazy]

They still pretty much have a playoff spot locked up, either way. They still have a lot of games left against the Cards and Brewers, if I remember correctly, so there's a lot of chances to directly put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division. They've hit a bit of a rough patch while the Brewers and Cards have gotten hot, but I still think they're the best overall team in the division. Barring injury, I'd say they still have the division under control. The Brewers and Cards will be beating each other up for most of next week, so there's going to be plenty of chances for them to gain ground if the second place team loses and they win.

[BrewCityUnit]

How do they pretty much have a playoff spot locked up. There is a 3 game difference of being out of the playoffs. They are by no means a lock to do anything.

[craigharmann]

They should be nervous, if they aren't already now. The Brewers got CC, the Cy Young winner, and the Cubs counter with Rich Harden? He's had a history of injuries, and who knows how long his arm will hold up. You've got Dumpster, the converted reliever. When will the strain of all those innings take their toll on him? Plus, they're the Cubs. There is a bit of history on their side.

[pitchleague]

Plus, they're the Cubs. There is a bit of history on their side.

I don't buy that one bit. Otherwise I might as well pack it in right now because, you know, "same ol' Brewers."

 

 

I will be very impressed if Dempster does not have a small collapse toward the norm for the rest of the season, based in his innings count. As for the team, I totally expect the Cubs to make the post-season one way or another. It's the Cardinals that has me waiting for the other shoe to drop.

[splitterpfj]

The Cubs have a lot of games left vs the Cards and the Brewers, I don't know if I'd say "alarmed", but you can bet they're paying attention.

[craigharmann]

I don't buy that one bit. Otherwise I might as well pack it in right now because, you know, "same ol' Brewers."

But, the Cubs haven't won in 100 years! There has to be a bit of luck, a curse, if you will, behind it too. The Brewers, for most of their 25 year history since making it to the WS, have not been good. They've built the team smartly, and are looking to strengthen the team to make it better. Because of that right there, you can't say they're the same old Brewers.

[logan82]

They shouldn't get nervous until they are down by 2 games with 2 to play in the season.

[TooLiveBrew]

At what point should the Cubs and their fans get nervous?

 

Maybe when we're 3 games back, playing the Giants, and they've lost 2 in a row at Houston (who's now won 4 in a row)

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[pitchleague]

craig, I know what you're getting at. However, for anyone to say, "c'mon, it's the Cubs. They'll blow it," is the same thing as saying, "c'mon, it's the Brewers", "c'mon, it's the Rays,", "c'mon, it's the Pirates," or "c'mon, it's the Nationals" for all these years that we've been saying it. The Cubs fans have just been saying it longer than everyone else.

 

I don't buy the jinx, curse, or whatever. Personally, I'd welcome the Cubs and Brewers both into the post-season because that would be one HECK of a NLCS.

[Ennder]

They should be nervous right now. It is very easy for a team to go on a hot streak or a cold streak and if they tank a lot of H2H games they could fall out.

 

That doesn't mean they need to be despondent or anything. They are in the drivers seat and most likely will win the division but with only a 3 game cushion they should be nervous today.

[ELCABALLO45]

They shouldn't get nervous until they are down by 2 games with 2 to play in the season.

 

This

 

Im glad the Brewers are winning right now and everything, but everyone needs to understand we still have many games left.

 

The Cubs are still the fav to win the divison.

 

Everyone feels good about themselves right now, but remember you are never as good as you think you are, and never as bad as you think you are.

 

 

[dlk9s]

Only a few weeks ago, the Cards and Brewers crept about this close and then the Cubs tacked on about 3 more games of cushion.

[RU Rah Rah]

Cubs fans probably should be no more or less nervous (or hopeful) than Brewer or Card fans. They do have a cushion (albeit a shrinking one).

 

Part of me hopes that the Brewers don't really catch and pass the Cubs until September, so that they don't have the chance to rebound from the fan-and-media frenzy that is sure to follow if they fall out of first place. If that happens in early August, they could have time to right the ship.

[owbc]

Wasn't it about this time last year when we were saying the same thing about the Brewers???

[crewcrazy]

They should be nervous, if they aren't already now. The Brewers got CC, the Cy Young winner, and the Cubs counter with Rich Harden? He's had a history of injuries, and who knows how long his arm will hold up. You've got Dumpster, the converted reliever. When will the strain of all those innings take their toll on him? Plus, they're the Cubs. There is a bit of history on their side.

Ben Sheets also has a history of injuries, and the Cubs aren't counting Harden as much as the Brewers are counting on Sheets (although the Sabathia addition would soften the blow of a Sheets injury). The Brewers have McClung, a converted reliever. I don't buy the "Well, they're the Cubs -- they HAVE to choke" thing...they didn't choke last year when they won the division, and I don't think you can't really dismiss the 2008 team because of the shortcomings of the past 99 teams.

I don't think the Cubs should be too worried, but Ennder is right in that they have to win the H2H games, otherwise things will definitely get interesting. Coming into today's games, though, Baseball Prospectus had them at 88% odds to make the playoffs -- the best chance in baseball. It would take a Mets-style collapse for them to miss the playoffs, IMO.

[logan82]

crewcrazy wrote:

It would take a Mets-style collapse for them to miss the playoffs, IMO.

Not really. We could pick up 4 games on the Cubs just by winning every series against them. The Mets lead last year was huge(7 games on Sept. 7th), not a mere 3 games.

[TooLiveBrew]

Gaudin could be a solid pickup for CHC if he can provide a fresh arm in the bullpen (of course injury insurance too). They certainly could add another bullpen arm, though. They don't have superstars in the OF, but Soriano/Fukudome/Ward/Edmonds/Johnson/sometimes DeRosa isn't a bad group, and DeRosa/Fontenot/Theriot/Cedeno for the MIF spots. Obviously the remaining three spots on the diamond are covered for the time being.

 

Aside from Soriano, no real serious injuries yet. A key injury could help decide the Central, in any direction.

[pretendastronaut]

But, the Cubs haven't won in 100 years! There has to be a bit of luck, a curse, if you will, behind it too. The Brewers, for most of their 25 year history since making it to the WS, have not been good. They've built the team smartly, and are looking to strengthen the team to make it better. Because of that right there, you can't say they're the same old Brewers.

 

So we're not the same old Brewers because we've built a good team, but their the same old Cubs even though they've built a good team? Or is only that we've done it smartly, which I assume is to mean through the farm? I don't know if I'd say the Cubs should be nervous really right now. While we see all of our games against them as a chance to do some damage, from the other side of the fence you see it as a chance to widen the gap if you have confidence in your team. I'd go on a limb and say the Cubs fanbase has more confidence in their team right now than we did at this point last season. As a Brewer fan, I'm nervous that its turning into such a packed race. I like our chances all and all though.

[Tbadder]

Why would they be nervous. They are the best team in the NL Central even as banged up as they are. Both the Cards and Brewers are going to vault over them? If they're confident and patient they'll have no problem. On the other hand...

[dvoiss]

If I'm a Cub fan my palms are starting to get a little sweaty. They still have to play 7 games in Milwaukee and that is no easy task. Hell, they could conceivably be in 3rd place by Aug 1. Eight of their next 12 games are on the road including 4 at Miller Park to end the month. Their four home games are against the Marlins who have won 7 of their last ten. That series is sandwiched between a four game trip to Arizona and the 4 game stay in Milwaukee. There seems to have been an assumption from most baseball fans all year that the Cubs would win the NL East. I don't think the Cubs are guaranteed anything at this point. I'm not saying the Crew is guaranteed anything either but if I'm a Cub fan I'm real nervous right now and my cockiness is starting to fade. This could be a better race than 07.

[pmg4]

There seems to have been an assumption from most baseball fans all year that the Cubs would win the NL East.

If the Cubs pull off an NL East title this year, they are hands down the greatest team of all time. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

[dlk9s]

That series is sandwiched between a four game trip to Arizona

3 game trip in which they miss Haren and Webb. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

 

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

I'm not saying a word to any of my Cub-fan friends. I remember that feeling last year, beginning with the Ramirez walk-off. Let them deal with however they feel, I like the way our boys are playing.

 

Of course, because this thread was started we will naturally drop a game tomorrow. I'm not superstitious, but I am a little stitious.

[bucks2281]

Despite the apparant cockiness/smugness of many Cubs fans, they have to start feeling the heat. After all, they are Cub fans, so they're feeling the effects of the inferiority complex. If I were a Cub fan, I'd be looking in the rear mirror -- perhaps even developing a defensive/treading water mentality that we experienced most of last season. Their fans are probably praying that they show up in Milwaukee in two weeks -- if they win less than two games, first place probably evaporates for the time being.