What's going on with Brent Brewer?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Things just haven't been right with our buddy, Brewer. (No pun intended). He's batting .217 for BC right now and he was struggling before his promotion. What is going on here? This guy was supposed to be an offensive SS that would have to move somewhere else because his bat would play, and well his bat isn't playing right now. Wasn't he a 2nd round pick 2 years ago? It's early yet for Brewer, but things aren't very encouraging.

 

Where do we go from here? He'll have to spend at least another year at BC, IMO, to get things straight.

[JoeHova]

Kevin Goldstein of BP said this about Brewer (who he ranked Milwaukee's 11th best prospect) before the season started: "Brewer is an all-or-nothing type of prospect who will either look like a star within the next couple of years or be off the radar." I think that's still pretty much the case, though his stock probably has slipped. He has great tools and he'll either figure out how to turn them into production or he won't. So far it looks bad but I wouldn't worry so much about his lack of progress just yet, as he was known to be a big-time project. That said, it's hard to look at a .550 OPS and be anything but discouraged.

 

I would think the Brewers will give him a couple more years. Maybe not, but I can't see them cutting him after this season though.

[battlekow]

This isn't exactly related, but I still wonder about Charlie Fermaint. He put up a .276/.349/.392 line at Brevard in 2006, which seems like a perfectly respectable line for a toolsy right-handed 20-year-old at Space Coast & in the FSL in general, but they kept him there to begin 2007 and he's never been the same. Granted, that's probably on him, as he's been accused in the past of not playing hard enough to live up to his potential, but still.

[Mass Haas]

Hopefully a lesson learned -- don't draft the best athete available, draft the best player available. This isn't a decathlon.

 

Brent's confidence can't exactly be peaking right now.

[TheCrew07]

I was incredibly high on last him year, posting about him constantly, as I was impressed with what he did the first 4 months at WV. I hoped that he would improve his plate discipline and his defense and become a legit prospect, but that hasn't been the case. Without the benefit of talking to him and just looking at his numbers, it looks like he's been trying to be more patient at the expense of the rest of his offensive game. The only stat in his line that has improved vs last year is the SO total, he's on pace for fewer strike outs than last year, but every other offensive number is down compared to last year. Also his defense to this point has basically been a wash when compared to last year, so as I see it he's regressing in every aspect of his game (if you aren't improving you are getting passed by). I've found his lack of production so disappointing this year I quit following his lines at the end of May. I only check his line now when someone mentions his name...

 

edit. I should add though that I've noticed he's been getting more hits in the last 2 weeks, his average was .200ish for a quite a while

[shelmark]

I agree with Mass, we need to draft players not projects. I have never seen the guy play, but I have to believe it isn't so much about plate discipline as it is pitch recognition. Some guys just weren't born with Tony Gwynn's eyes. Brewer looks to be one of them. I'm not that discouraged simply because you are not going to hit on every draft pick. Not an exact science for sure. I happen to think the selection of Dykstra will be this year's Brewer.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I happen to think the selection of Dykstra will be this year's Brewer.

Isn't Dykstra a lot more polished though than Brewer? I'm just not seeing the comparison.

[Boy Jeenius]

Patience freinds. Players take their own time and course. I, for one, have no problem with projects, especially after round 1. The game is littered with players who bloomed late, throughout its entire history. Look at Ryan Ludwick, or Fernando Tatis this year. Or Scott Podsednik as and example. Whether Brewer makes it or not, I will say this, when I saw him at spring training this year, I could not believe how big he was. He reminded me of Glenn Braggs. Maybe he just needs a position switch to ease his mind at the plate. You just never know what it might take. At times we need to pause and reflect with our expectations.

[twobrewers]

The Brewers drafting of Brent Brewer was kinda like the Chargers signing Antonio Gates.

 

They didn't really know how he would pan out - but they figured he was athletic enough to make it work.

 

Brewer was a high risk/high reward draft pick. We are pretty close to deciding how that turns out.

[LouisEly]

A couple of college pitchers, namely Wade Leblanc (the next pick), Kevin Mulvey (the pick after that), and Justin Masterson (a little later in the round), along with a college 3B (Wes Hodges), would have been much better picks.

 

Hopefully a lesson learned -- don't draft the best athlete available, draft the best player available. This isn't a decathlon.

 

Amen. No matter how athletic you are it takes skill to put a bat on a ball.

[battlekow]

I, for one, have no problem with projects, especially after round 1.

I agree with this. I didn't want Anthony Hewitt at #16 this year, but I would have taken him at #35 happily. Brewer is probably done, but after the first round, I think guys like him are worth the gamble.

 

[ILuvDaBush]

The kid could still be in college. Let's give him another year or two to grow into his tools. I don't think his speed has diminished, as much as the power just hasn't been there.

[rousieboy]

The Brewers drafting of Brent Brewer was kinda like the Chargers signing Antonio Gates.

 

They didn't really know how he would pan out - but they figured he was athletic enough to make it work.

 

Brewer was a high risk/high reward draft pick. We are pretty close to deciding how that turns out.

Antonio Gates was an undrafted free agent, Brewer was a rather high draft pick with some fair amount of money and expectations going his way.

 

[geothite]

Hopefully a lesson learned -- don't draft the best athete available, draft the best player available. This isn't a decathlon.

 

Brent's confidence can't exactly be peaking right now.

I guess the Twins organizational theory of drafting the best athlete has proven to be wrong also. A rule of thumb they have followed for two decades.

Generalizations make great bumper stickers though.

[Mass Haas]

Generalizations make great bumper stickers.

That in and of itself would make a great bumper sticker http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

 

I wasn't aware of the Twins' take on things, I know their first round pick last year was considered a reach by many, but is doing very well.

Do you have a link to anything that Aaron Gleeman or others have written on this subject? I'd be interested, thanks.

[mothershipconnection]

Hopefully a lesson learned -- don't draft the best athete available, draft the best player available. This isn't a decathlon.

 

Yeah, there's a reason a ton of the world's best athletes are about to go compete in China for zero dollars and a shot at a couple of endorsement deals instead of making millions and millions playing in MLB, the NFL, or the NBA. Think our best sprinters wouldn't prefer A-Rod's contract?

[Never Outhustled]

Its way too early to lose faith in Brewer, and we don't need to transcend sports to find a comparison to give us hope. Look no farther than the top prospect in the Yankee's system, Austin Jackson, who was drafted the year before Brewer. The parallels between the two are almost startling, from there size, handedness, raw baseball back-round, and most importantly, career track.

 

Jackson, like Brewer, was a bigger star in another sport in HS. Jackson's best sport was basketball, where he had a scholarship to play PG at Georgia Tech. Brewer had a football scholarship to play WR at Florida State. Jackson, like Brewer, chose baseball after being offered 2nd round money. Jackson, like Brewer, played in the lower level of rookie ball his first year and was decent, but not great. Jackson, like Brewer, played in the SAL his 2nd year, and again was decent, but not great. As a 3rd year pro, Jackson, like Brewer, repeated the SAL to start the season, and, Jackson, like Brewer, seemed almost to regress. Then, Jackson, like Brewer, was surprisingly promoted to the Florida State League.

 

What happened next is the great part. Jackson somehow had the light go on and got hot in the FSL, and ended the season on a tear. He is now considered one of the top 25 prospects in baseball, and is putting up solid numbers in AA.

 

Brewer is starting to show signs of life in the FSL. I'm not asking him to go on as big of tear as Jackson, but I think its conceivable he could untap enough of his immense ability to make him a top 100 prospect, and another successful Jack Z draft pick.

[mothershipconnection]

Jackson was considered a great baseball prospect in high school though, and for more than athleticism. I remember hearing a lot about how fluid he played in the field and that he had a pretty nice swing. I don't know Brewer's high school credentials that well, but I remember Jackson quite well since I actually worked at Denton Ryan High when he was there and was an avid reader of the Denton Record Chronicle at the time. Ryan High had a string of a couple of very good players including Javy Guerra and Ryan DeLaughter playing at the same time. I never got to see Jackson play baseball, but did see him play basketball.

[bork]

Did he see this thread? 4-4 with 2 doubles, 5 RBIs and a walk in game 2.

[Never Outhustled]

Jackson was considered a great baseball prospect in high school though, and for more than athleticism.

He was a good but not great prospect, ranked #77 in BA's final 200, and that was mostly because of his raw ability. He hit just 348 with 4 homers as a senior, which is about as poor as you'll ever see from a top 200 HS position player.

[gregmag]

I loved Brewer before this year, but heck, I thought Rickie Weeks would be the MVP . . .

 

Mass's "lesson learned," with all due respect, seems very premature to me. If you're going to draft 18 year-olds, I don't think they can all be finished products. Guys like Brewer, as X pointed out, do sometimes turn their skills into results. More generally, I don't think you have to be a "raw tools uber alles" guy to project eventual results from certain attractive combinations of talents, especially in a young draft pick.

 

The clock is certainly running on Brewer, but he did some positive things last year, and the team challenged him this year by throwing him in the FSL. I don't think we'll be able to begin drawing meaningful conclusions about him for at least another year.

 

Greg.

[JoeHova]

Yeah, there's a reason a ton of the world's best athletes are about to go compete in China for zero dollars and a shot at a couple of endorsement deals instead of making millions and millions playing in MLB, the NFL, or the NBA. Think our best sprinters wouldn't prefer A-Rod's contract?

Umm, if we are judging which sports athletes should be playing by the highest paid player in that sport, why aren't baseball players playing golf instead? I guess they had to settle for baseball because golf was just too hard for them, it involves too much walking around.

Seriously, I don't get that attitude. Nothing that doesn't pay millions is worth much? It would be better to be a Joe Dillon or Craig Counsell than to be Carl Lewis or Michael Phelps or Hicham El Guerrouj? There's no inherent satisfaction to be had in being the best in the world (possibly the best in the world, ever) at something? And why did all those idiots play baseball or football or basketball back in the day before salaries became astronomical? Why didn't they box instead, that's where the money was.

It's so much harder to make an Olympic track and field team than it is to make a baseball team that it's laughable to even compare the two. There are 750+ (because of callups and injuries) jobs available every year in baseball, compared to 70 spots every 4 years in U.S. Olympic track and field. In addition, the field of possible track athletes includes basically anyone who ever played any sport. If a guy was especially fast or strong but mainly played football or basketball or soccer or wrestled, I guarantee the coaches had him go out for track as well.

 

And one more point, Michael Bennett was the fastest player in the NFL for years, yet he barely even made the Olympic Trials, much less the team itself. You can just as easily make the case that pro baseball, football and basketball players aren't good enough to make the track team as you can the opposite point.

[TheCrew07]

While I agree with your premise, being fast in a straight line doesn't mean someone is uber athletic, which is why track guys rarely succeed at sports like football.

 

I have nothing against the Olympic sports, don't take me the wrong way, but if you're suggesting to us that someone who throws the javelin has a better arm than a MLB pitcher or NFL quarterback and is a similar athlete, I couldn't disagree more... in the same way that being a world class ping pong player doesn't make you a great athlete. I've always been a huge fan of the Olympics, but generally speaking the best athletes in the world are basketball players.

[colbyjack]

This is an interesting thread in that you can really try to cram everyone's thoughts together and realize that judging prospects is a lot deeper than people think it is.

 

Brewer has a tremendous amount of athletic talent, and that is something you can never rule out. You don't know when (or if) that athletic talent is going to suddenly going to pull him through all of his troubles and allow him to have everything click for him.

 

I don't like comparisons to athletes that play other sports. They just don't work.

 

One example that works for me is Bill Hall, a player that didn't put up very good numbers (outside of his season with High Desert, a place that everyone seemed to have a career year), but he was a player in the minors that many within the Brewers organization tabbed as a future big-leaguer. He struggled early in his big-league career, but eventually flourished, clearly an example of a player with a ton of talent whose talent eventually allowed him to be successful.

 

For those down on Bill Hall that aren't digging that comparison, allow me to offer Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez had a ton of hype being a top prospect in the Red Sox organizaiton and being a key chip in the Josh Beckett trade. I clearly remember a lot of people here, posters that I respect quite a bit, being down on Ramirez and wondering how the Marlins made that deal (similar to wondering how the Nationals made the deal with the D-Backs for Bonefacio, a similarly talented prospect). Ramirez didn't have horrible numbers in the minors, but his numbers didn't justify the hype that surrounded him.

 

Austin Jackson works as well.

 

It's a tough balance. As soon as you stop drafting tools (like the A's), you lose out on potential impact players. If you just draft players based on their performance (such as guys like Eric Farris), you may add good players to your system (and Farris has quietly turned his season around), but you're not landing those potential impact players that separate the mediocre teams from the very good ones.

 

I don't mean to play the old man is all of this, especially since I have (and have had) my doubts about Brewer, but he has the type of freak athleticism that could allow him to soar to the big-leagues when and if things start to click for him just like they did with Hall, and even Ramirez.

 

We often talk about how the minors are about development and not winning, and that can be translated to a player-by-player basis as well. Brewer may not be hitting well, but hopefully he's starting to make the necessary adjustments now that will allow him to be successful later.

[battlekow]

Well, with today's game, Brewer's FSL OPS is officially higher than his Sally OPS, 610 to 604.