CC Sabathia--What else can you say

[RickieDROPSbombs]

What else can you say about CC Sabathia other than the man is just a beast. Anyone still mad about giving up Laporta?

 

--changed the title to help clarify what the thread is about--pitchleague

[KCBrewerfan34]

I read a major league scout said Laporta projects to be an average major leaguer, he said Gamel is an impact bat and Escobar is basically untouchable per Rosenthal, maybe a Hardy package this offseason for McGowan or Cain. Plus all the picks we should get. Melvin will have alot of deal making to be done this off-season.

 

 

Oh yeah the subject of this thread WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! that man is a stud, let' see what he can do against the Cardinals and the Cubs in his next 2 starts.

[AJAY]

I think the National League is an awesome fit for him. He can obviously hit, and he also gets to pitch against much easier lineups. He's gotta be thrilled.

 

I am going to cry when he leaves this winter though.

[SeriesFinale]

Anyone still mad about giving up Laporta?

I don't know if I'll ever be "mad" about it, even if he enters the HoF and the Brewers miss the playoffs. We've been over this many times but I felt it was the right move at the right time and we'll deal with the consequences, good and bad.

All that aside, like someone else here mentioned one day, I think he's already well been worth the Zach Jackson part of the trade if you want to look at it that way. It seems the team responds to him just being on the mound because they know why CC was brought here at great cost.

 

Of course, at the end of the season, we may well be:

 

http://keitholbermannisevil.files.wordpress.com/2006/12/brandon-de-wilde-shane.jpg

 

"CC....come back, CC...where you going? Come back, CC! Ned's not mad!!!"

 

But if that means the ranchers (Cubs) and their Jack Palance (Rich Harden) have been defeated, I'll be OK with that.

[GB12]

I think the National League is an awesome fit for him. He can obviously hit, and he also gets to pitch against much easier lineups. He's gotta be thrilled.

 

I am going to cry when he leaves this winter though.

 

I know I'm probably dreaming here, but I think there has to be at least a strong attempt to sign him longterm. He's everything we could ask for and is pitching lights out so far in 3 starts with the Brewers. As much as I like Sheets, if we forget about him and go hard for Sabathia maybe there's a chance we could get him. We have a lot of big money contracts coming off the books this year that could go into resigning him.

 

Gagne comes off the payroll this offseason, there's $10 million.

Sheets leaves town, there's another $11 million.

We'd have to pay Cameron $10 million for his 2009 option so I'd say he's gone, there's another $5 million.

Chris Capuano's contract is up after this season, $3.75 million.

Turnbow aswell, $3.2 million.

Counsell's likely done, $2.8 million.

Mota, $3.2 million

Cluadio Vargas was still getting money from us this season, $0.9 million.

 

That right there is $39.85 million coming off of our payroll. Take off the $11 million CC's currently getting and that's $50.85 million!

 

Now of course we're going to have to sign other free agents, extend/resign our own players, arbitration, and so on, but even after all that we'll still have a large portion of 2008's payroll unused.

 

Say it would take a deal averaging $19 million a year to lock him up (which would make him the second highest paid pitcher behind only Santana). The length of the deal would probably be for 5 or 6 years. Based on the above numbers and what comes off our payroll we could cover that and still be under the 2008 payroll. We could front load it a bit placing maybe $22 million in the first year still giving us over $28 million to spend elsewhere. We'd then have the remaining $73 million to pay off over the next four years. 2010 we'd be in about the situation as in 2009 and say $21 million that year. The final three years we'd have $52 million left, but in 2010 we get rid of Hall and Suppan's big contracts which clears $20 million between the two of them. $20 million in 2011 and we're down to $32 million over the final two years. The final two years would be easily covered.

 

That'd all be possible if the payroll stays at the current level. Attanasio has raised the payroll at least $10 million a year since he bought the team too. I'm probably quite a bit off in the paragraph right above this one, but you get the point, and put the numbers how you want it should work out. It's not at all impossible to resign CC and if we are commited to doing so we should be able to get it done.

 

Aside from the money I don't see any reason why we wouldn't want to lock him up. He's one of the best pitchers in the game and has been lights out in his brief time in Milwaukee. He's only 27 and in the prime of his career. If you want a top pitcher this is the way to get it. Any younger and he won't be available, any older and you're taking a risk of giving money to a player on the decline. He's the perfect guy to go after. He's also very durable without injury problems like Benny. He has started at least 28 games and pitched at least 180 innings in all of his 7 years in the majors.

 

With Sabathia and Gallardo at the top of the rotation we'd be serious contenders for years to come.

 

 

 

PS: I'm kind of expecting some harsh critisism from this post, but even if I'm off a bit (or a lot) it should bring some good discussion about it.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

All of that analysis you did is correct. The Brewers would have the money to get Sabathia, but the issue is that Melvin and other small market team GM's don't like to commit large contracts over many years because it just cripples a team if that player were to get hurt or simply not meet those expectations. That's why Sabathia will not be a Brewer in 2009. We could probably find the money, but we just can't afford to take the risk, but a team like the Dodgers who have a lot more money coming in per year in revenue can afford that risk.

 

Also, how are we going to replace those players you stated above? Those players cost money too. Who's going to be our CF? We are for sure going to have to sign more bullpen arms. We are still going to be in the market for more starting pitching because Sheets is going to leave town if we'd get CC.

 

The safest option is to take the draft picks and say goodbye and trade the high value players we have right now for lower cost and lower risk starting pitchers who very well might put up similar numbers to C.C. in 2009.

[OOOverbay]

GB12,

 

I'd like to agree with you, but you're dreaming... you can't just look at next year alone. Sure, a lot of money is coming off the books next year, but adding in extensions and arby to some of the other young guys the next couple of years... you're going to see the pay roll increase quite a bit. I don't mean to shoot you down. I hope I'm proven wrong, but I just don't see it happening. Granted, CC has quite the history of being a workhorse, but I still don't see them throwing Santana money at him. Like I said, I would love it if I'm wrong.

[SeriesFinale]

Big Ben is definitely not chopped liver either, of course. I don't know how you can make a "Plan B" out of him. If the Brewers go hard for CC, I assume they just expect to lose Ben.

 

Of course, if CC keeps pitching like he has been (I can't imagine) and is a huge part of a playoff run (that I can imagine), the Brewers might decide it's way too rich for their blood and just shoot for Big Ben as their #1.

 

What a problem to have.

[GB12]

All of that analysis you did is correct. The Brewers would have the money to get Sabathia, but the issue is that Melvin and other small market team GM's don't like to commit large contracts over many years because it just cripples a team if that player were to get hurt or simply not meet those expectations. That's why Sabathia will not be a Brewer in 2009. We could probably find the money, but we just can't afford to take the risk, but a team like the Dodgers who have a lot more money coming in per year in revenue can afford that risk.

 

Also, how are we going to replace those players you stated above? Those players cost money too. Who's going to be our CF? We are for sure going to have to sign more bullpen arms. We are still going to be in the market for more starting pitching because Sheets is going to leave town if we'd get CC.

 

The safest option is to take the draft picks and say goodbye and trade the high value players we have right now for lower cost and lower risk starting pitchers who very well might put up similar numbers to C.C. in 2009.

I understand what you're saying about the risk involved, but as far as pitchers go Sabathia seems like a very safe bet. This is a guy that I think the risk would be well worth it. The only way for us to get top pitchers otherwise is from homegrown products like Ben Sheets. And even that is only for a couple years before they get big contracts themselves. To get a pitcher this good in the prime of his career would be huge to stay competitive with those big market clubs. Now like you're saying it'd be a huge setback if he does suffer a bad injury or performs poorly, but the chances greatly favor CC staying on his current level at least in my mind and he has a fantastic track record of good health. I'm not really arguing with you because you're right and that's why he won't be with us next year, but if it were up to me I'd keep him around.

 

Replacing the guys listed wouldn't be all that tough. There's a lot of dead weight there. Sheets and Cameron are really the only guys we'd have to replace. Replacing Sheets would be an easy fix. Put Gallardo in his spot in the rotation. For centerfield we could either call up an OF prospect to go along with Braun and Hart or sign someone. Cameron is due $10 million next year and he's just not the kind of player that deserves that much. We could find a cheaper option in free agency that'd probably do just as well as him. We'd pick up a reliever or two, but it's not like losing Gagne and Mota would hurt our bullpen at all. There was still quite a bit of money to work with even after taking out what CC would get.

 

 

We have plenty of power for our lineup, but we need at least one top level pitcher if we're going to do anything.

[Gobias Industries]

If we're going to pony up for one of the two (which I highly doubt) , it might as well be Sabathia. Sure, he might cost an extra year or two at 20 mil a year, but I think he's a much safer bet than Ben.

 

I love Sheets, but at this point in time, Sabathia is in a different class.

[Nottso]

It may be time to give up the "small market" mindset. When Mark A. bought this team, it was losing money with a 28 million dollar payroll. The Sabathia signing just pushed payroll to 90 million, which may put the team slightly in the red this year. Attendance is great, and will continue to grow as the team progresses. For years, the Seligs said "If you (the fanbase) will fill the seats and give us the revenue, we'll build you a winner." We (the fanbase) said "No, you build us a winner and we'll fill the seats." Mark A. and company built us a contender, and we're filling the seats. We're also buying merchandise and the fanbase is spreading geographically. I think it can, will, continue to do so.

 

Our Brewers are no longer a bottom-of-the-slag-heap team; on the field, or at the bank.

[owbc]

I really worry about the upside/downside of a 6 year/$120 million CC Sabathia contract and I don't think we can afford it.

 

CC would be making 20-25% of the total payroll, even though he only pitches every 5 days. Unless we make the World Series, get an expensive new TV contract, or significantly raise ticket prices, we can't sustain a payroll higher than $90 million. If CC goes down, the Brewers may still compete, but in the long run, they will lose key players that they should have been able to afford.

 

Furthermore, although we are losing $40 million off of our payroll next year, I can come up with a number of increases without factoring in FA signings.

 

-Prince Fielder's arbitration: $8-10 million increase

-Corey Hart's new contract/arbitration: ~$5 million increase

-Jeff Suppan: $4.5 million increase

-Seth McClung/JJ Hardy/Dave Bush's arbitration will also be high if they continue to play well

 

Thus, between our increases and a new CC or Sheets contract, we're back up to our 2008 payroll, and that's without any other new additions.

 

There are only 8 teams that can afford a CC contract. They are the Boston, NY Mets, NY Yankees, Chi Cubs, Chi Sox, LA Dodgers, LA Angels, Atlanta, and Detroit. For a discounted CC or a 4-5 year Sheets contract, you can add another 10 or so teams, including the Brewers.

 

Thus, I advocate letting CC go and trying to sign Sheets to a 5 year deal. They both have essentially the same career ERA, so why not go with Sheets, who will cost significantly less and deliver the same production. Ben has never had a horrible stretch like CC had in April and he certainly can't do any worse than CC did in the playoffs. Plus, he has been living in Milwaukee for years and has a number of ties here, so I think he is much more likely to sign.

[homer]

SeriesFinale,

Well done on the Shane references.

[naivin]

Whether Sheets or Sabathia, the question is a simple one, do you see the Brewers dummying up a contract in the 5 year/$100 million range? I don't.

 

For the record, if they were to make a choice between the two, its Sabathia and its not close. He's younger, better, and doesn't have the injury history. He has more innings on him, but that's because he hasn't spent 1/3 of his career on the DL. That obvioulsy means he'll be appreciably more expensive, so if the Brewers were to re-sign one, in all liklihood it'd be Sheets. That's a 5 year/$75 million contract I would not want to consider. In the end, the Brewers will likely have to go Gallardo, Parra, and look outside for another front end starter, and frankly may be ok doing so.

 

But off-topic discussuion aside, that's for another day...facing the NL, his second half numbers should be scary good. Also an unbelievable job by Doug Melvin getting him in here early - he has started 3 of the last 7 games - all Brewer wins (with only 1 win in the other 4). Tough to do much better than that.

[naivin]

Boy is it nice to have pitching though. Just looking ahead at the expected match-ups for StL and the Cubs in particular...Ordinarily you would look at PP's of Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster and Harden, and probably hope to split the series, but when you consider we will counter with Sabathia, Sheets, Parra and Bush, you realize that you might actually have a chance to win 3 of 4.

[homer]

Had Gallardo not gotten hurt, I wonder if Melvin makes the CC trade? I still would have. Imagine that threesome.

[owbc]

Sheets isn't really injury prone.

 

He's only missed 16% of his career due to injuries, assuming 34 starts per year

He's never had any arm or shoulder problems

He weighs less than Sabathia and is less likely to have leg/knee issues in the future

His injuries are much less likely to reoccur than common pitching injuries

[M Skjellyfetti]

For the record, if they were to make a choice between the two, its Sabathia and its not close. He's younger, better, and doesn't have the injury history. He has more innings on him, but that's because he hasn't spent 1/3 of his career on the DL.

 

I completely disagree

 

A) If you assume 34 starts per year is an entire season, Ben Sheets has missed only 16% of his career (not to mention he's never had arm trouble).

EDIT: obsessedwithbrewcrew beat me to the punch.

 

B) Just because Sabathia is a big name and had 2 really good starts in a row doesn't make him a better pitcher than Ben. His career ERA is higher than Sheets's, his ERA+ is 116 to Ben's 115, and his career WHIP is 1.26 to Ben's 1.20. Also, Sabathia has never put up an ERA under 3.2 in his career (143 ERA+), while Sheets' 2004 and 2008 campaign so far have been far better than that.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like CC and all, but I think we have a natural tendency to overvalue novelty compared to something great that we're used to seeing.

[owbc]

If Gallardo doesn't get injured, we're probably 2-3 GB the Cubs instead of 4-5. Even with Sabathia, the bottom of our rotation is questionable, so I think he still shows intrerest. However, the Phillies offer might have beaten us had Melvin been a little more reluctant to pull the trigger due to having Sheets/Gallardo as his 1-2.

I really think that our choice isn't Sheets or Sabathia, it is Sheets or neither.

[BrewCrewForever]

I bow down to CC Sabathia. The man is electric and so exciting to watch. With him and Sheets at the top of our rotation I feel so good about getting to the post season now. By division winner or wild card. And when we get there I think we can make some major noise. Now if we only had a leadoff hitter......

[MickeyDavis]

I'm going to enjoy watching him pitch this year, hopefully into October. And then I'll worry about next year.

[TauPentaRei]

CC would be making 20-25% of the total payroll, even though he only pitches every 5 days.

This is an interesting way to put it. What if CC makes 20% of the team payroll and pitches in (read: wins) 20% of the team's games?

Far be it from me to suggest CC can go 35 - 0 in a season, but he can stand on the hill with a AA line-up (ok, offense only) behind him and give the team a chance to win in most MLB ballparks. Yeah yeah, I know - I've got the seriously thick CC goggles on, but they feel great. When do we get the shutout from him, by the way? But if you can "pencil him in for" 18 wins, that's 20% of 90 right there.

 

Of course we have to enjoy the ride, but you have to wonder how Doug & Co. plan to handle the off-season offers - particularly with the sensitivity of the Sheets situation. The farm-raised decadal stalwart versus the ephemerally new hired gun "toy". Taking a back seat and responding to the market place would be a mistake, and I (agreeing with others here) can see Benny developing a big time inferiority complex and playing the disrespect card if he is not the "primary goal of the off-season."

 

And to address the small marketism talk - we have stupid money tied up in the bullpen. That is not sustainable and not a wise investment.

[monty57]

CC has been as advertised, and I'd love to see him signed, but I doubt it's going to be possible. One added benefit of him pitching well will be his ranking among free agents. I've seen some of the "talking heads" musing that the Yankees will sign Sabathia and Texiera this off-season. IIRC, the top ranked Type A FA nets his previous team the first rounder, while the lower ranked Type-A FA nets the team's second rounder. If that's the case, I'd hope CC would be the #1 FA on the market. It'd suck to get a late second rounder for him.

[Sundown Kid]

Here's a question for the SABR folks on the board--when was the last time a pitcher pitched complete games in two consecutive games? That has to be an extremely rare feat.

[JJHardy7]

And to address the small marketism talk - we have stupid money tied up in the bullpen. That is not sustainable and not a wise investment.

 

Agreed here, but the Brewers are still a small market team and that's not the end of the world. The Brewers are probably close to the maximum attendance and don't play in a huge market. That doesn't mean they can't compete, but it does mean they are probably close to the max payroll. I think Sheets and CC's future boils down to who the Brewers want to extend on the current roster and at what cost. I've really enjoyed watching CC pitch, but I think he'll get more money than Sheets in the open market. I don't think it's crazy to think the Brewers can sign one of the two, but I think the length of the contract will be a major factor. If one of them will take 3 or 4 years (not likely I know), they very well could end up in Milwaukee.