McClung to bullpen? -- Yost to platoon McClung and Bush -- Latest: platoon over; Bush back in rotation full-time (reply #165)

[BillScottCanRake]

This has been a pretty interesting discussion.

 

To be honest, I am not sure how I feel about the whole home/road platoon idea. The Dave Bush Man of Mystery article presents some compelling data that this may be more than just random noise and bad luck. Normally I'd say Yost looking to correct something that isn't a problem, that the difference in home and road splits is just random noise, bad luck and/or not worth worry about. In this case, however, it does indeed seem like Bush has some sort of issue pitching away from Miller Park. Just what that issue is and how much it affects him seems to be unanswered at this point.

 

So, while I am not against Yost trying to eliminate bad starts by Bush on the road, I do have three issues with the platoon idea.

 

1- Having two different fifth starters could have an adverse affect on how many guys are available in the pen.

 

Will there be times when both Bush AND McClung are unavailable solely because of the platoon? I understand that neither Bush nor McClung could pitch ever day out of the pen, but trying to manage their throwing so they can make their next start, while one is recovering from their last start could leave the Brewers a man short in the pen at times. If that happens, you are really going with a 24-man roster and an 11-man pen, which is a pretty big risk to take in the middle of a playoff race.

 

 

2- If Bush's problem is pitching on the road, the isn't it a problem whether he's starting or relieving?

 

If this is true that when Bush pitches away from Miller Park he is so bad that he shouldn't pitch, doesn't Yost have to not only manage McClung and Bush so they can make their starts, but also manage the pen to ensure that Bush is available out of the pen only at home? That's going to make things pretty complicated, isn't it?

 

If that's the case, isn't Bush unavailable this whole four game series against the Cards? Again, that seems like pretty big thing to have to work around.

 

 

3- Is McClung the answer to pitching "on the road"?

 

While I agree he's been better than Bush on the road this year so far, I'm not sure I'd expect him to continue to pitch as well as he has away from Miller Park. He may well, but based upon how he's pitched before he came to Milwaukee, I don't think it's a slam-dunk that he will do so the rest of the year.

 

 

I guess at this point, after writing this post, unless someone can easy my worries (particularly 1 and 2) I'd come down against the platoon. Not necessarily because I think the idea of not pitching Bush on the road is bad, but it makes bullpen management infinitely harder, and McClung is just as likely to have a road-clunker as Bush. I'm not sure the potential benefits outweigh the potential problems.

 

Even tho I'm against the idea, I'm glad that Yost seems willing to pull the plug on this pretty quickly if it doesn't look like it is going to work. I don't agree with him on this issue, but it looks like he's smart enough to give this idea a short leash.

[naivin]

2- If Bush's problem is pitching on the road, the isn't it a problem whether he's starting or relieving?

 

If this is true that when Bush pitches away from Miller Park he is so bad that he shouldn't pitch, doesn't Yost have to not only manage McClung and Bush so they can make their starts, but also manage the pen to ensure that Bush is available out of the pen only at home?...

 

If that's the case, isn't Bush unavailable this whole four game series against the Cards?

Just to address this one point which seems to be a common argument against, what if the score tonight is 11-2 after 4 or 5 innings? Who would you rather have working in that game, Dave Bush or Carlos Villanueva. Personally, I'd be happy to let Bush eat those innings and have Villanueva available tomorrow night if needed. That's one example, there are plenty of reasons you could use Bush out of the bullpen on the road. (Before someone comes back with Mota or Gagne in that situation, the fact is you still have to get all 27 outs, and if you bring those guys in, chances are you are gonna have to use one or two guys as well when the inevitable implosion happens just to finish the game, and now you have limited who's available for the next night even more, while Bush, in theory anyway could finish the game.)

 

Beyond that, nobody ever said he is so bad he shouldn't pitch (on the road.) What has been said is that they think it is worth a try to have him make his starts at home and have McClung make the starts on the road, so perhaps we can put the argument that he can't be used on teh road to bed right now.

 

There will be times when Bush/McClung will not be available due to an upcoming start, but that's often true of all bullpen guys depending on what their workload has been, but depending on the situation, the other likely could be available out of the pen, so its something that will need to be managed, but the 24 man roster argument, is probably in reality a little bit of a red herring as well.

[BillScottCanRake]

Just to address this one point which seems to be a common argument against, what if the score tonight is 11-2 after 4 or 5 innings? Who would you rather have working in that game, Dave Bush or Carlos Villanueva. Personally, I'd be happy to let Bush eat those innings and have Villanueva available tomorrow night if needed.

 

I agree absolutely. I don't have any problem with that situation. I'd use Bush and, if neceesary, Mota in a game like that and save everyone else for a game that is winnable.

 

I guess my fear is a situation where you can't use McClung because he already pitched and is recovering, and you can't use Bush because his next scheduled start is coming up, maybe Wednesday or Thursday of this week, for example. Maybe that situation won't ever come up, or maybe if it does come up it's no different than just having two relievers unavailable.

 

Like I said, maybe that situation doesn't come up, or maybe it doesn't matter. And if it truly doesn't matter, I am more than happy to cross this off my list of worries.

Beyond that, nobody ever said he is so bad he[/i] shouldn't pitch (on the road[/i].) What has been said is that they think it is worth a try to have him make his starts at home and have McClung make the starts on the road, so perhaps we can put the argument that he can't be used on teh road to bed right now.

 

I guess I can see that.

 

At the same time, he's not getting his starts skipped on the road because he's good or because McClung is great. Maybe saying "he is so bad he shouldn't pitch on the road" is a bit extreme. But, he does apparently pitch more poorly on the road (for whatever reason), and if that's the case (and it is), isn't it possible that he's susceptible to pitching poorly on the road from the pen? Maybe it doesn't matter if he's only going to pitch in lost cause games anyways.

 

Like I said, even tho I am not in favor of a home/road platoon, I can be convinced otherwise. I'm not entirely convinced, but I less against it than I was, if that's any consolation.

[Team Canada]

This debate would be a lot more straightforward if Bush's last 4 red hot starts hadn't been ... at home. You say "he's red hot", I say "Of course, he's at home!" I don't see a great logical disconnect with the premise that Bush just really likes the mound in Milwaukee, or whatever it is. In fact, that seems far more plausible than saying that he just does particularly bad at Park A, but not Park B.

At any rate, it's far from a sure thing that if Bush were pitching every game he'd somehow do well in all of them, so I don't see where the difference over the remainder of the season will be that great anyway. If McClung carries a 6.00 ERA, then yeah, Bush probably would've done better. But I think the odds are with both of them doing about the same. If the premise is correct and Bush wouldn't have done well on the road, then hey, we picked up a couple games. The biggest question mark is how it will affect the bullpen.

[rluzinski]

I can't say for certain whether the split is random or for a good reason, but I know what my guess would be. I can find you a million odd splits in baseball that have no rational explanation. Of course, there's usually a reason why there's no rational explanation.

 

But I think the odds are with both of them doing about the same.

 

McClung has a 4.39 ERA as a starter this year in 55 1/3 IP this year. He has a 4.63 FIP overall this year. He has a career ERA of 5.71. He may very well have reinvented himself into a decent starter this year. I don't pretend to know for certain. I certainly don't think there's a lot of evidence yet that he has, though. Personally, I'd take Bush's 4.51 career ERA and be happy with stashing McClung in the pen. He could improve a bad bullpen and perhaps be a decent fill in if someone in the rotation gets hurt. Instead, we hurt the bullpen and chase funny splits. No thanks.

[obobo55]

Well we made it through game 1 of the experiment and the point is now probably moot as Bush will now make the next 2 starts in that spot of the rotation. McClung goes to the bullpen and should be available as early as Thursday (hopefully, with Benny pitching, he won't be needed). He would not appear in the rotation again until the 5th of August in Cincinnati. By then, I figure either Suppan pitches his way out via poor performance or injury or they decide to skip Parra in the rotation to limit innings. Who knows what could happen in 15 days? Seems kind of silly to have spent this much time debating what probably turns out to be a 1-start deal. The way Yost framed it, no one was being demoted but both were fighting for their spot. I'm sure he expects to see it play out somehow and he won't have to deal with it until later.

 

When it was proposed, I have to say that I thought it was a novel idea and given the track record of Bush on the road, figured it was worth a try. I hadn't looked too closely at Bush's numbers until tonight, but I think we may be missing something larger in looking at his season and career numbers.

1st 9 starts-4 home, 5 away

53.2 innings

55 hits

19 BBs

26 Ks

12 HRs

36 ERs

last 8 starts-5 home, 3 away

53 innings

41 hits

7 BBs

39 Ks

3 HRs (2 at Coors)

16 ERs

 

This just looks to me like Bush has found out how to keep the ball in the park and locate his pitches much better. 7 BBs in 53 innings is very good and probably points to him having better pitcher-friendly counts in other at-bats--leading to the lower batting average and lower HR rate.

 

After seeing these stats, I would have opposed the move simply because I wouldn't want to upset Bush's rhythm. He hasn't pitched since July 10th, so I am a bit concerned that by Saturday (15 days off) he may be rusty. Some of that may have happened anyways due to the AS break though, so not a whole lot you could do about that.

[obobo55]

Just one more thing to add supporting Bush. We are 3-1 in his no-decision starts this year, only losing that brutal game in Boston where we had 4 errors leading to 3 unearned runs including the final 2 in the seventh of Torres. So overall, we are 8-9 in Bush's starts, not bad for a fifth starter. In his 8 losses, our offense has provided him with 21 runs (2.63/game). Even with Sabathia pitching, how many of those would we have won? Maybe 2?

[danzig6767]

McClung has a 4.39 ERA as a starter this year in 55 1/3 IP this year.

For a 5th starter, that's pretty damn good.

He has a career ERA of 5.71. He may very well have reinvented himself into a decent starter this year. I don't pretend to know for certain. I certainly don't think there's a lot of evidence yet that he has, though.

Obviously it's to early to be 100 percent certain about anything with Seth, but he never showed any level of consistent pitching with Tampa like he has with us after changing his mechanics. Since the start of June and after having time to stretch out as a starter, he has started nine games and only one of those starts was really bad.

Personally, I'd take Bush's 4.51 career ERA and be happy with stashing McClung in the pen.

I do understand why many don't like this starter platoon idea, but it is hard for me to just dismiss that while Bush may have 4.51 career ERA, in his three years as a Brewer, he has a great home ERA and a miserable road ERA. Many or maybe even most pitchers will have some difference in their home/road splits, but since being a Brewer, Bush has been so flat out terrible when pitching on the road that he's been a major liability to the team in those starts. Bush has been like Jenkins when facing righties or lefties. Maybe his final numbers on the year would be decent, but it was only because of his raking vs righthanded pitchers. When he was allowed to play vs lefties, he was a hindrance to the team succeeding. That's the same with Bush. For three straight years, when Bush has pitched at home, he's been an asset to the team succeeding and when he pitches on the road, he's a been hindrance to the team succeeding.

 

I guess we could keep throwing him out there on the road and hoping that like when Jenkins would out of the blue got hot for awhile and hit lefties, maybe Bush would stop serving up batting practice meatballs on the road. I don't have a crystal ball to know how exactly this will work out because platooning pitchers certainly isn't common, but the reasoning behind trying it just doesn't strike me as dumb as many here do.

 

 

 

 

[obobo55]

OK, here is one more thought.

 

Seth McClung has put up 9 starts now since his May 29th truly poor start against ATL (just his 2nd start for us), some stats:

 

50.2 IP (about 5 1/2 on average)

3.73 ERA

44 hits

19 BBs

44 Ks

6 HRs

 

Just 2 starts where he went less than 5 (both 4 2/3) and just two where he gave up more than 2 runs.

 

I'm not sure we would consider doing this, but could this be a case where Melvin wanted to showcase Seth for a possible deadline deal? Get one more start for a guy that is cheap and relatively effective and see what teams would offer? It would severely crimp our depth in case of injury, but you don't need a 5th starter once you get to the playoffs, and I could see a team parting with a valuable chip if they think he has turned the corner. Over those 9 starts he has only averaged 89 pitches, so one would think he could be stretched to go longer in games. One would think that a 27-year old starter that is likely cheaply signable would be pretty valuable, no?

 

So, anyone think this is a possible hidden reason for this move or am I completely off my rocker?

[Postseason2006]

Seth had a very decent outing last night. Cameron should've caught the ball that Glaus hit but didn't. Good game Seth. Hopefully, Suppan pitches a good one tonight.

[sheethead]

I still don't like it, but I can't argue with the result of test case #1. Now Suppan, earn your dough.

[JohnBriggs12]

Yost made an interesting comment on WTMJ this morning. Refering to the McClung/Bush situation, he said something about McClung battling some elbow stiffness and then later said it would be 15 days between his starts. Could the roster move be McClung and Suppan switch places on the DL? That way, they could have McClung make a rehab start before he returns.

[Fatter than Joey]

Could the roster move be McClung and Suppan switch places on the DL?

 

I hope not. That means 15 more days of Mota.

 

If McClung is truly hurt then of course he needs to go on the DL -- If Ned is just hiding McClung, while Bush makes his home starts, this

seems really stupid.

 

I just don't understand what is happening. Obviously either Bush/McClung needs to leave the rotation -- pick one, put the other in the BP and DFA Mota. If Yost truly believes that Bush can be used at home, send Bush to AAA, and call him up in a month.

[jeffy]

Interesting but he would not be allowed to pitch on day 15, if he is on the DL, right? The next road start for Bush/McClung would be Aug 5 in Cincinatti. In the last 3 years, Bush has ERA over 14 at Great American Ballpark...that is the place where is ERA is highest, in fact.

 

Using Yost's logic, maybe a spot start for Villaneuva is called for...ERA 0.9 at Great American.

[rluzinski]

I just set the burden of truth a lot higher than most you guys. Especially when we are talking about accepting something that is highly unusual in baseball. Two months ago, people were questioning why Bush should even start, since it was all but proven that he shouldn't even be on the 25 man roster. Now he should start but it's obvious that he'll contune to struggle on the road but do well at home? I.m just not buying it.

 

That said, as others have pointed aout, it's a moot point for the time being.

[naivin]

I guess I'm not sure why some of you have such a hard time accepting the notion that there are/could be factors playing into this decision beyond simply how each guy pitches at home or on the road, that the Brewers don't necessarily want to discuss publicly. I don't claim to know what they are necessarily, but injuries, guys tiring, trades, planned roster moves, a bullpen that has struggled, and on and on certainly seem like possibilities that may have led to them doing this.

 

Whether McClung is truly 'hurt' or not, if they feel he would ultimately benefit from a couple weeks off, would swapping him with Suppan and waiting to see what else transpires in the next couple weeks really be such a bad idea (BTW, that type of move is not Ned Yost as much as it's Doug Melvin)?

 

Actually, on second thought, I do know why some of you have such a hard time accepting that possibility - you have convinced yourselves that Ned is just an idiot, and that this decision is a bad one, and are unwilling to consider that perhaps there may be additional factors that have led to this decision that go beyond Ned Yost.

[rluzinski]

Spare me the psychoanalysis. This has nothing to do with Yost. I haven't ruled out the possibility that Dave Bush should be expected to struggle on the road going forward. I just find it unlikely. He has publi caly stated that he has no explanation for it, for whatever that's worth. I guess that he could be conceeling that he regurely has panic attacks on the road. I don't know.

 

I don't blame anyone for seeing Bush's splits and thinking it's obvious that there's an issue. It looks quite convincing. I've just seen too many odd splits that turned out to be nothing to be convinced just yet, especially with no rational explanation for it.

[Team Canada]

I guess I'm not sure why some of you have such a hard time accepting the notion that there are/could be factors playing into this decision beyond simply how each guy pitches at home or on the road, that the Brewers don't necessarily want to discuss publicly. I don't claim to know what they are necessarily, but injuries, guys tiring, trades, planned roster moves, a bullpen that has struggled, and on and on certainly seem like possibilities that may have led to them doing this.

What sort of evidence do you have to support your opinion? Sure anything's possible, but you could claim that for any decision, and it doesn't really get you anywhere. What we know is that they're platooning them because of Bush's poor performance on the road. If that's not true, we can't know that.

[Bucky Rules]

If this is anything more than a three times thru the rotation thing (which I'm not convinced that it is), and it works... who knows, five years from now Ned Yost could be viewed as a visionary. Wouldn't that be ironic? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

I'm convinced that history will treat Bud Selig (as Brewer's owner AND as commissioner) much kinder than his contemporaries. Perhaps Ned will share the same fate when something like this becomes common place, and the Brewers win four of the next six World Series "in spite" of him. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh... what a wonderful world that will be.

 

[naivin]

What we know is that they're platooning them because of Bush's poor performance on the road. If that's not true, we can't know that.

Well, actually we know that that's what their saying the reason is. It may well be as simple as that, but I happen to believe there may be other factors conributing to it that they'd just as soon not talk about. Suppan's soon to be completed stint on the DL for example. It certainly makes his status/effectiveness somewhere south of 100% certain. How or how much that may or may not have played into it, I don't know, but it is awfully hard for me to conclude that the two are not in any way related. Is/was one of these guys involved in trade talks? I have no idea. Certainly doesn't seem unreasonable. Is one of these guys hurt or tiring? Again, I don't know, but based on commenst earlier today, it sure sounds possible.

 

I don't claim to know any of these things, and I never have, but I think it is reasonable to assume that there may be things going on beyond home/road splits that we don't know about.

 

I am simply pointing out that the AntiYostites don't seem willing to consider such possibilities because it would mean it involved more than Ned and would take away their ability to pounce if this doesn't go well.

[logan82]

naivin wrote:

I am simply pointing out that the AntiYostites don't seem willing to consider such possibilities because it would mean it involved more than Ned and would take away their ability to pounce if this doesn't go well.

I am anything but antiYost and I think this is a bad idea.

[naivin]

I am anything but antiYost and I think this is a bad idea.

 

That's great, but you also seem to have missed the point.

[TooLiveBrew]

This idea that there's some huge group of Yost bashers here that hope he fails so they can make snarky comments is just not accurate. I can think of -- at most -- a handful of people that have conducted themselves in that manner this season. There's just not this large/decent-sized population of people that relish in seeing Yost fail. The criticisms are typically focused on strategic moves, and not outcomes. I think platooning Bush/McClung home/road is a bad idea, because it gets SP out of their routine of going every 5th day or so. It happens to be Yost's idea, but that's not why it's a strange or bad idea. If the idea worked out ok, it would not change my opinion that the concept is a poor one.

[brewmann04]

This might be Ned best move with the Home and Away platoon of bush and McClung.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think platooning Bush/McClung home/road is a bad idea, because it gets SP out of their routine of going every 5th day or so. It happens to be Yost's idea, but that's not why it's a strange or bad idea. If the idea worked out ok, it would not change my opinion that the concept is a poor one.

 

 

But reasons like it would screw up the routine or put pressure on them or that it will adversely effect the bullpen all seem to be things that everyone brings up anytime anything new is tried. It's almost like the old school guys who thought inter-league play would ruin the WS or that the wildcard waters down the playoffs and makes the divisional races less interesting. Those were legitimate arguments made by very astute baseball people like Bob Costas that turned out to be completely off base. No one would have known for sure unless it was tried. We will never know if you are right or not unless someone tries it. Same with the five man rotation or the specialized bullpens of today. Those were new concepts once as well. I think there was opposition to that sort of new thing then as well. Probably with a bunch of sky is falling scenarios along with it. Not saying your doubts are that type of extreme scenario TLB your fears might be warranted. That being said...

 

This is one of those times where the risk reward factor is in favor of trying it. This idea may very well may turn out to be a poor one. If it is the risk isn't all that high. I don't think this platoon will be what determines the postseason unless there is some sort of extreme outcome one way or the other of doing this. It is the fifth starter they are trying to weasel a little more effectiveness out of. They either do it by this or they do it by picking a guy and hoping it's the right decision. Picking the wrong guy would have as much, probably more, detriment to the team as doing this. At worst it gives them more time to make the final call on who is best suited for that spot.