McClung to bullpen? -- Yost to platoon McClung and Bush -- Latest: platoon over; Bush back in rotation full-time (reply #165)

[naivin]

Negative impact on W/L, negative impact on Bush and McClung, negative impact on Cubs/Cards fans taking Milwaukee (and Yost) seriously, and negative impact on the bullpen (as it would be much improved sans Mota). This decision, while not surprising to me, is a biproduct of Yost thinking again. I wish he would stop doing that.

 

Are you in favor of this platoon, or are you just defending Yost?

Well, who can argue with sound logic like that?

 

Its probably not the route I would go, but at the same time I really don't have a problem with it. I think its a fine way to help define roles for two guys who are going to be part of the team, who haven't exactly set the world on fire over the course of their careers. I also believe there may be more 'external factors' (suppan, bullpen, potential/failed trades) going into it than simply how these guys perform at home or on the road.

I actually do think the potential upside probably outwieghs the potential downside, and I also don't think it will see August 1st, so it is incredibly insignificant.

[Fatter than Joey]

Home ERA: 1.64 (6 starts)

Road ERA: 5.06 (3 starts)

 

Would it make you feel better if Bush's home ERA was a respectable 4.50?

 

Bush is not a great pitcher. He is going to get his ass handed to him from time to time. The Brewers played a lot of road games early this year, it only seems logical to me that if a pitcher started the season struggling, and his team played a lot more road games, that pitcher would accumulate some bad road starts.

 

FTJ and end... I'm interested in hearing your take on this. I seriously don't know what to make of it, but it certainly does suggest that there may be something more than small sample outlier (results) to his poor pitching on the road.

 

I have no idea. There may be a logical explanation -- but I don't think you change your methods until you identify a cause.

 

Keep Bush in the rotation, move McClung to the pen, boot Mota. That seems to make much more logical sense to me than having 6 dudes in the rotation and a struggling pitcher in the pen.

 

Agreed -- Greg Gagne told me though that he is struggling as well, and didn't appreciate being excluded by you....

[sheethead]

giffted1 wrote:

---

So how many wins do you think it'll cost us? How will Bush and McClung be harmed? Why should we care about what Cubs and Cardinals fans think?

The number of wins depends on how badly messed McClung and Bush get over this. I'll go with 2 wins, with the residual effects showing up in mid-late August after this failure of an idea is relinquished. Bush and McClung are starting pitchers. Oh wait... Bush, this week you are not a starter, but next week you will be. For a manager that likes his clearly defined roles, this platoon sends a different message. A message similar to one of a ouija board. Oh ouija board, which starter will pitch better this week... M....C....C....L....U....N....G. Thank you ouija board, thank you so much! This decision reeks of snap decision making and reliance on coincidental statistics. There are reasons why this is never done, at least not that I can remember in my baseball following years.

 

I would like other fans/media to have a little respect for a team trying to contend. But its gotta be hard for them to respect the Brewers when they continue to make decisions like this. Especially when its piled on top of many, many other bad decisions.

 

Ouija board, do you work as well with positional players?

[sheethead]

Its probably not the route I would go, but at the same time I really don't have a problem with it.

 

So you're saying you wouldn't have done it, but you would have done it. Good argument logic, this way you are always covered.

 

I think its a fine way to help define roles for two guys who are going to be part of the team

 

Forgive me if I think this is a bad way to define roles. I am not seeing anything fine about it.

 

who haven't exactly set the world on fire over the course of their careers.

 

Dave Bush has been lighting my Brewer world on fire, good thing he isn't starting tonight http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif

 

I also believe there may be more 'external factors' (suppan, bullpen, potential/failed trades) going into it than simply how these guys perform at home or on the road.

 

This I am interested in. What type of 'external factors' could go into a decision to enact a home/road starting pitching platoon? Maybe Ned's dog told him to do it?

[Fatter than Joey]

Maybe Ned's dog told him to do it?

 

cough*tictactoe chicken*cough

[Bucky Rules]

it only seems logical to me that if a pitcher started the season struggling, and his team played a lot more road games, that pitcher would accumulate some bad road starts.

If you can look at his game logs and still come to the conclusion that this seems to be what is going on, I'll concede the argument. I don't see how anyone that is being completely honest can make that argument after viewing the logs. You can say that there's not enough data. But, I don't think you can honestly make the argument that Bush's road numbers are consistently getting better since he started pitching better overall.

[naivin]

So you're saying you wouldn't have done it, but you would have done it. Good argument logic, this way you are always covered.

 

No I clearly said I probably would not have done it, butr I don't really have a problem with it. Is that really difficult to understand? Reading comprehension is a skill.

 

This I am interested in. What type of 'external factors' could go into a decision to enact a home/road starting pitching platoon?

 

Again some reading comprehension ability would be helpful here, as I was quite clear what I thought some potential factors contributing to this decision could be -- (suppan, bullpen, potential/failed trades).

[giffted1]

The number of wins depends on how badly messed McClung and Bush get over this. I'll go with 2 wins, with the residual effects showing up in mid-late August after this failure of an idea is relinquished. Bush and McClung are starting pitchers....Thank you ouija board, thank you so much! This decision reeks of snap decision making and reliance on coincidental statistics.

So your support is basically your personal random number generator.

 

The ouija bit is entertaining, but clearly Ned is basing this decision off of a couple years of stats showing Dave Bush is a better pitcher at home than on the road. As Russ pointed out, Dave Bush has pitched differently on the road.

There are reasons why this is never done, at least not that I can remember in my baseball following years.

Such as?

[Bucky Rules]

I have no idea. There may be a logical explanation -- but I don't think you change your methods until you identify a cause.

The plane is going down. We're losing altitude. 20,000 feet, 18,000 feet.... HELP! Somebody do SOMETHING!... "Good evening passengers. We're sorry to inform you that the plane is crashing. But, we're working diligently to find out why the plane is crashing. In the meantime, sit tight while we do nothing to try and right the ship." http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

...I thought I'd jump in to the bad analogy foray.

[Thurston Fluff]

If defined roles are such a bad thing in the pen why is defined roles such a good thing in the rotation?

 

I have no idea whether this is going to turn out well or not. Neither do any of us. It hasn't been tried yet. The five man rotation was something that met it's fair share of criticism when it was first introduced. Some of the claims that a five man rotation meant less starts buy the best four pitchers in favor of a weaker #5 or the five man rotation messed with the starters routine turned out to be more than balanced out by the benefits. For that reason I'll reserve judgment on it's productivity when there is some valid evidence one way or the other.

 

When I look at these type of situations I always assume the manager is not a complete idiot. Complete idiots rarely get to that high a level in any profession. So I'm left whit trying to understand the rationale.

 

I think Ned is doing this for several reasons. One is he wants to see both Bush and McClung start because they need to see what they have in McClung as a starter for the future. They want to do that without unduly harming the present. We don't know how Bush will be in the pen. This way we get to see each of them in both roles for (my guess) a month or so without a major effect on the team. What I see is Ned working with incomplete data on McClung and Bush (in the pen) and trying to get a clearer picture, buying time so to speak, to make a clearer more reasonable resolution past that.

I guess, worst case scenario, it so negatively effects both pitchers that they both turn into a bowl of jelly and can never pitch again. The chances of that are so mind numbingly slim that realistically the real negative has far less impact on the team and players. realistically the worst case scenario is we miss the one good start Bush would have had on the road that McClung simultaneously sucked in where the offense didn't bail him out and the team lost.

 

The best possible scenario is it turns out to be the greatest idea since the five man rotation and is adapted by all the teams and becomes the norm in a few years. The chances of that are so mind numbingly slim that realistically the real gain is we see more of both pitchers in both roles to determine who is best in what role. Then Ned makes a more informed decision and we lose nothing in the process.

 

All in all I see it as a move that won't have much impact one way or the other while the actual platoon is in effect. It may have an effect later if we get the right guy in the pen and the right one in the rotation down the stretch. I don't see this as having any different effect than having the #5 starter and long man rotate after every bad outing or two like so many managers do when searching for that effective 5th starter.

[logan82]

It seems like the decision is being made only looking at Bush's stats instead of comparing McClung's road stats to Bush's road stats. Taking the fact that McClung really can't be counted on to go more that 5 or 6 innings typically, I think Bush should be started all the time over McClung.

[cwolf2012]

A big key for this is if Yost will have the intelligence to give up on this idea pretty quickly. If McClung has two bad starts and Bush isn't pitching well at home, he damn well better end this platoon. If it works well, then whatever. I have no problems with it then.

 

If it comes down to it, I'd better be seeing Bush get more of the starts.

[Bucky Rules]

The number of wins depends on how badly messed McClung and Bush get over this. I'll go with 2 wins, with the residual effects showing up in mid-late August after this failure of an idea is relinquished. Bush and McClung are starting pitchers.

It has been argued that the addition of CC Sabathia to the rotation will result in a net gain of two wins over the remainder of the season. You honestly believe that testing something like this with our #5 starter will completely negate the positive impact of adding a Cy Young award winning pitcher to our rotation? I'm sorry, but that doesn't pass the sniff test.

[sheethead]

No I clearly said I probably would not have done it, butr I don't really have a problem with it. Is that really difficult to understand? Reading comprehension is a skill.

 

Its much clearer to me now. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif

 

I thought some potential factors contributing to this decision could be -- (suppan, bullpen, potential/failed trades).

 

Salaries, Manny Parra, AAA, Clucky.

 

So your support is basically your personal random number generator... clearly Ned is basing this decision off of a couple years of stats showing Dave Bush is a better pitcher at home than on the road.

 

A number was baited for so yes, I generated one between 0 and 2 for discussion. Again, over the years the stats have shown Dave Bush to be a better pitcher on the road than Seth McClung, if not just a better pitcher overall. Therefore rendering the point that Bush is better at home than on the road moot, because he is still better than McClung.

 

Such as?

 

It doesn't make any sense. It delivers the message that neither pitcher is more deserving of being in the rotation (this point would be valid if Bush and McClung were equal, which they're not). It opens all doors to ridiculous platooning patterns.

[Thurston Fluff]

Bush and McClung are starting pitchers.

 

McClung has been a starter less than half a year. Before the season nobody here had any belief what so ever that he would be able to be effective in the pen let alone start. That is why I think Yost doesn't want to officially send him back to the pen yet. Real definitive knowledge on his ability as a starter is still far from complete.

[sheethead]

It has been argued that the addition of CC Sabathia to the rotation will result in a net gain of two wins over the remainder of the season. You honestly believe that testing something like this with our #5 starter will completely negate the positive impact of adding a Cy Young award winning pitcher to our rotation? I'm sorry, but that doesn't pass the sniff test.

Bucky, just because it has been argued CC only adds 2 wins doesn't mean that will be the final outcome, nor that its based in any type of fact. I can churn data and argue he will add 5 wins to the season total (I believe he has already added 2 wins). That doesn't mean my argument would be correct or based in fact. And yes, if McClung and Bush both get messed up to the point where neither are effective over the course of a month (or possibly more), 2 more losses is not that much of a stretch.

 

The biggest reason I am irritated by this move is that Bush has been improving while McClung has been regressing. Seth has done a servicable job filling the #5 spot in the rotation, and I commend him for most of his performances. But he should be in the bullpen, bottom line. Home/away starting pitcher platoon. It even sounds ridiculous. And if this works (which I can't see happening, but I'll eat crow if it does), I have no doubt Ned has already begun conceiving his day/night 8th inning guy platoon and his fan-giveaway/non-fan-giveaway home/away day/night closing pitcher platoon.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think this situation resolves itself within a few weeks - Of Suppan, Bush, and McClung, two of the three will be in the rotation and one will shift to a role as long relief/spot starter if Parra needs to skip a turn or rainouts-doubleheaders-lack of offdays put a strain on the pitching staff.

 

What this ultimately boils down to is Yost deciding to pitch McClung against the Cardinals and get Bush two starts at home against the Astros and Cubs, while watching Suppan make a couple of starts to see if he's healthy and effective. If the home/road platoon thing lasts into August, then you have to question what Yost is thinking. I'm hoping that by then it's obvious what 5 pitchers the team wants to roll with the rest of the season.

[Bucky Rules]

I believe he has already added 2 wins.

I agree with you.

 

And yes, if McClung and Bush both get messed up to the point where neither are effective over the course of a month (or possibly more), 2 more losses is not that much of a stretch.

OK. I'll buy that as a possibility. But, I don't think it will happen to that degree.

 

 

The biggest reason I am irritated by this move is that Bush has been improving while McClung has been regressing. Seth has done a servicable job filling the #5 spot in the rotation, and I commend him for most of his performances. But he should be in the bullpen, bottom line. Home/away starting pitcher platoon.

That's the way I would go too. But, I have to admit that I'm a little bit intrigued by this. I'm not entirely sold on the fact that a starting pitcher needs to start every five games to stay sharp. We'll see.

 

I guess I just give the Brewers brass the benefit of the doubt that they've thought this thru. I think they realize the consequences. And I'd be really surprised if this isn't endorsed by a good number of people (including analysts) in the organization. Furthermore, I have serious doubts whether or not Ned concocted this idea at all. My guess it came from the same group of people that advanced the idea to hit the pitchers 8th. But, I have heard nothing to support my theory.

I'm skeptical, but willing to give it a shot and see what happens.

 

 

And if this works (which I can't see happening, but I'll eat crow if it does), I have no doubt Ned has already begun conceiving his day/night 8th inning guy platoon.

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

[sheethead]

I don't see this as having any different effect than having the #5 starter and long man rotate after every bad outing or two like so many managers do when searching for that effective 5th starter.

 

This is a good argument as to the possible effect. But the premise of a platoon leaves doubt in a players mind as to what to expect in the future. If Bush pitches well, will he earn the spot? When all is said and done, if the Brewers make the playoffs both of them will be in the bullpen. Who cares who the #5 starter is right now, as long as its the best pitcher available. Right now I would have to say Dave Bush, but I guess I could be wrong. I think he has better off speed stuff and he locates better, therefore giving up fewer walks. I was in Colorado when he gave up a first inning grand slam, and I was ticked. But he's been dealing lately, and can go 6+ innings routinely. I just don't get the platoon rationale. It seems contrived.

[patrickgpe]

I don't see this as having any different effect than having the #5 starter and long man rotate after every bad outing or two like so many managers do when searching for that effective 5th starter.

 

I think the problem is that you now basically have a 24 man team. For Bush to be ready to start on Saturday he really can only pitch tonight and maybe an inning on Wednesday which is the day he'd normally throw off the mound. If one of the 2 were a true long reliever you would be able to use him more often.

[Thurston Fluff]

I have no idea. There may be a logical explanation -- but I don't think you change your methods until you identify a cause.

 

By this reasoning you don't change Weeks role unless we know why he's not hitting well. It doesn't matter the cause if the plan is to not have him do it anymore. If he was going to pitch away from home then it makes a lot more sense to know the reason why. Long term they will look for reasons why. Short term it makes a heck of a lot more sense to not have him play where he doesn't play well than just bash your head against a wall looking for answers that haven't shown themselves for three years doesn't it?

 

Perhaps -- but this argument is saying Dave Bush pitched poorly in Park A, therefore he will pitch poorly in Park B. Does Bush pitch poorly in every park that is not Miller Park? -- Of course not.

 

He really hasn't been good in any national league park except Turner Field were he pitched a total of 7 innings. The only two that could be considered good are Turner field where he has 1 game, 7 IP, 1.29 ERA, .071 WHIP, .160 BAA and 5/1 K:BB. Hiram Bithor in the Dominican is the other I'm not bothering to put up the numbers since it's not relevant anymore but roughly similar to Turner Field. No other park has an ERA under four and plenty of real ugly ones.

 

The other places he hasn't been horrible in was RFK with a 4.09 ERA 9/3 K:BB, but a 1.55 WHIP and 304 BAA. The only other parks he has an ERA under 5 is

 

Wriggley with 4.78 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .258 BAA, 24/8 K:BB, in 32 IP.

 

Minute maid park 4.31 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .308 BAA, 20/4 K:BB in 31.1 IP.

 

Coors field with 4.50 ERA. 1.20 WHIP, .270 BAA in two starts lasting a total of 10 IP.

 

The rest just gets plain old ugly.

 

All in all his two best places that have any amount of starts in them are Rogers Centre and Miller park. Both coincidentally are parks where the majority of his starts where his home park. If Ned wants to go statistically park by park Bush wouldn't be making a whole lot of starts on the road regardless of which park the played in.

[FVBrewerFan]

Very simply, Yost is skipping a red hot pitcher in the rotation and that makes zero sense. At the very least, Bush deserved to pitch tonight. If he gets lit up, fine, go with the Home/Road rotation- even though I still don't agree with it. I think Yost is overthinking the whole thing ,just as he did with hitting the pitcher 8th. He moved away from that for no apparent reason. It's almost like he has to do somehting crazy jsut to show he's creative.

 

Now you have two pitchers with roles they're not really comfortable with. Wouldn't they be better off getting McClung pumped up to be the 7th inning guy, or even the set-up man? Now you have 2 pitchers with a ton of days in between starts with no idea what their role will be while they're sitting in the pen. Brilliant.

[Thurston Fluff]

For Bush to be ready to start on Saturday he really can only pitch tonight and maybe an inning on Wednesday which is the day he'd normally throw off the mound. If one of the 2 were a true long reliever you would be able to use him more often.

 

True but I see it as the same as one guy not being able to pitch due to being used the day before or three days in a row. Ned will have to plan the use of those two looking ahead to their workload instead of back to it. Not really all that much different in my mind. I'm sure if you already have doubts about Ned's ability in that area this only compounds the worry of how well he does looking both ahead and back. Can he really chew gum and walk at the same time sort of worry?

 

But the premise of a platoon leaves doubt in a players mind as to what to expect in the future.

 

I don't see this as any different than a pitcher who knows he's on a short leash. Nobody has certainty when they know all it takes is one or two bad outings to be removed from their role. That does not mean they won't perform well knowing they have to in order to keep their job.

 

If Bush pitches well, will he earn the spot?

 

Ultimately I think he would. I really think they just want to see a little more of McClung as a starter to help them make future decisions. If McClung pitches and Bush doesn't then Bush goes to the pen. If they both do well then and only then would this platoon thing stick around for a while. Why mess with it if it's working?

 

When all is said and done, if the Brewers make the playoffs both of them will be in the bullpen. Who cares who the #5 starter is right now, as long as its the best pitcher available.

 

So true. But if they do want to use Bush in the pen in the playoffs it would be better to see how he does now. Maybe this is good for the playoffs if we get there. Bush gets a taste of working there and the Brewers get to see what he does in that role. At this point they don't know who the best pitcher available is and it doesn't hurt to see what each can do in different roles while making that determination.

[Thurston Fluff]

He moved away from that for no apparent reason. It's almost like he has to do somehting crazy jsut to show he's creative

 

Not true. He moved away from it because Hardy didn't like it and Kendall was the only guy it made sense to hit 9th.

[jhart05]

What this ultimately boils down to is Yost deciding to pitch McClung against the Cardinals and get Bush two starts at home against the Astros and Cubs, while watching Suppan make a couple of starts to see if he's healthy and effective. If the home/road platoon thing lasts into August, then you have to question what Yost is thinking. I'm hoping that by then it's obvious what 5 pitchers the team wants to roll with the rest of the season.

 

 

Exactly. You have somewhat of an unknown in Suppan right now. If he can't turn it around he's probably the one who will have to take the demotion to the pen, and to hell with salaries. I don't think it will come to that however. I think Soupp is going to be fine, beginning with his start tomorrow against his old team. Then Bush will take over the 5 spot and McClung will go back to the pen.

 

This won't last the rest of the season, it's just a way to weed out one of them. Unless Bush and McClung both pitch great in these roles, then the Crew should be in first place, so don't mess with a good thing in that case.

 

So let's see what happens. Regardless of how dumb you may think Yost is, he's not going to stick with this for very long if it's not working.