McClung to bullpen? -- Yost to platoon McClung and Bush -- Latest: platoon over; Bush back in rotation full-time (reply #165)

[RU Rah Rah]

If you go back to May 27, home and away, here is Bush's line:

 

2.70 ERA, .210 OBP, 40 SO, 8 BB, over 60 innings.

 

Again, I don't necessarily think that's going to last forever; he's not going to put up those kind of numbers over the long haul. But to see that kind of roll from the your #5 starter and then take him halfway out of the rotation seems weird to me.

Do we really need to even get into how completely distorted these stats are because you not-so-arbitrarily chose May 27 as your starting point? Come on. Run the numbers since May 12 (when he had his 1st good home start) and show the difference between home and road, and then we can talk. Or AT LEAST be intellectually honest enough to show the difference between road and home numbers in the skewed dates that you did choose.

 

I don't even disagree with your desired result, but the method you choose to demonstrate it just looks like you're manipulating the data to prove your pre-determined conclusion.

 

 

So you don't think he's been pitching better lately? Fair enough.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

I agree with the sentiment that this "platoon" will probably be for 1-2 turns through the rotation, at which time the Brewers will know if Suppan is back to 100% AND pitching effectively enough to keep him in the rotation. In the mean time the Brewers will have either Bush or McClung available to be a long reliever that enters a game if need be, and they would essentially be pitching within a day of their regular turn in the rotation, since it's tough to envision short starts from C.C. or Sheets unless an injury occurs. Not exactly the best situation, but it doesn't mean the team bus is automatically going to explode on the way to the ballpark on days when Bush, McClung, or Suppan are slated to start.

 

My guess is Parra will be given an extra day here and there to keep his arm fresh, and Bush, McClung, and Suppan will continue to shuffle starts in the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation, since I'm also sure that C.C. and Sheets are going to be starting every game possible on their regular rest, offdays be damned if they're feeling good.

[Fatter than Joey]

IMO naivin was jumping on you for your much more general comment of how the Brewers win in spite of Ned's idiocy.

 

I was responding to another poster that wanted apologies to Yost if it works out. This is a bad idea regardless of the outcome, even if the outcome favors the Brewers.

 

Please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting that Yost making this decision does not impact your feelings on it.

 

It really doesn't. I'd find the idea of treating 20+ parks as one composite really silly.

 

One of these guys is being pushed to the pen

 

Why would Bush be allowed to pitch out of the pen on the road?

 

I'm not sure you can conclude it is a bad idea based only on that, or how it is a misuse of data.

 

Treating all parks as one composite, or making decisions like this based on small samples of data is a misuse.

[RU Rah Rah]

Career road ERA:

 

Seth McClung (155 IP): 6.78

Dave Bush (354 IP): 5.42

[naivin]

Why would Bush be allowed to pitch out of the pen on the road?

 

Well, lets see...he could be used in situations where his impact could theoretically be minimized...large leads, large deficits. You know, they way long releivers are used. How about as an alternative to Villanueva in those situations so that you can use him in more important spots. Or perhaps they can use him as an alternative to Gagne or Mota.

 

It really doesn't. I'd find the idea of treating 20+ parks as one composite really silly.

 

Perhaps its not about that, as much as it is about treating Miller Park as Miller Park - a place Dave Bush pitches better and far more consistently than he does elsewhere.

 

...making decisions like this based on small samples of data is a misuse.

 

Two and a half seasons all telling the same story is a small sample? OK.

[Fatter than Joey]

He's still over a run worse on the road.

 

Perhaps -- but this argument is saying Dave Bush pitched poorly in Park A, therefore he will pitch poorly in Park B. Does Bush pitch poorly in every park that is not Miller Park? -- Of course not.

 

Again, I can find odd splits for every Brewer this season -- it doesn't mean that moves should be made in each or even any of the cases.

[naivin]

Perhaps -- but this argument is saying Dave Bush pitched poorly in Park A, therefore he will pitch poorly in Park B. Does Bush pitch poorly in every park that is not Miller Park? -- Of course not.

 

Of course not, but if you would be willing to an objective look at the other side of the coin, he has 2.5 years of pitching that says on the whole he does in fact perform somewhere around 2 runs better at Miller Park, then he does at others. You're chalking that up to what, coincidence?

 

The argument is actualy saying that Dave Bush has pitched well in Park A (Miller Park) for 2.5 seasons, and therefore it is logical to assume that he may continue to do so.

[endaround]

The biggest problem with this is how is success or failure judged? If Bush comes home and has an awful start, is he moved to pen even though its likely due to him not having pitched in 2.5 weeks? Do we let this go on for a month, two?

[Fatter than Joey]

You're chalking that up to what, coincidence?

 

Yes, coincidence and explainable phenomena.

[endaround]

Perhaps -- but this argument is saying Dave Bush pitched poorly in Park A, therefore he will pitch poorly in Park B. Does Bush pitch poorly in every park that is not Miller Park? -- Of course not.

 

Of course not, but if you would be willing to an objective look at the other side of the coin, he has 2.5 years of pitching that says on the whole he does in fact perform somewhere around 2 runs better at Miller Park, then he does at others. You're chalking that up to what, coincidence?

Suppan has a similar split. Manny Parra has a similar split. Zambrano has a similar split this year. Kyle Lohse has a similar split this year.

 

So apparently lots of pitchers should be platooned

 

[naivin]

Suppan has a similar split. Manny Parra has a similar split. Zambrano has a similar split this year. Kyle Lohse has a similar split this year.

So apparently lots of pitchers should be platooned

 

Well, if you think it is valid to compare sample sizes of a half of a season to 2.5 seasons for Dave Bush, I guess I agree. With the possible exception of Suppan, the numbers prior to this season for those guys don't appraoch the consistent delta for Bush.

[Bucky Rules]

So you don't think he's been pitching better lately? Fair enough.

 

He has pitched better at home. He has not pitched better on the road. He's had five starts ont he road since he started pitching better at home. You chose to only include three of them in your data. Then you muddied it up further by mixing them in with SIX home starts -- where nobody is denying he's been fantastic.

 

I'll do the math for you.

 

Since May 12 (when he started pitching phenomonally at home):

 

Home ERA: 1.62 (7 starts)

Road ERA: 6.66 (5 starts)

Even if you choose to ignore a big chunk of the available data of an already small sample and start with May 27th, the splits look like this:

 

Home ERA: 1.64 (6 starts)

Road ERA: 5.06 (3 starts)

 

 

Still looks like a big difference to me. And it sure was convenient of you to mix 6 home starts with only 3 road starts to demonstrate that he's pitching better now. Especially when the question was -- how is he pitching on the road? But you're right... 5.06 (with one stellar start and two awful starts) is better than 6.66. Congratulations, I'm now convinced.

 

It's completely disingenuous to pretend that he's been anything but awful on the road this season. His numbers were NOT skewed by poor early season starts as you suggested. And he has shown no signs of getting things corrected on the road save for a seemingly isolated good start in Atlanta.

[Bucky Rules]

Career road ERA:

 

Seth McClung (155 IP): 6.78

 

 

So you don't think he's been pitching better lately? Fair enough.

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry... I couldn't resist.

 

[Bucky Rules]

rluzinski wrote:

 

Bush has definitely been doing something differently on the road than at home this year:

 

Dave Bush is a man of mystery

FTJ and end... I'm interested in hearing your take on this. I seriously don't know what to make of it, but it certainly does suggest that there may be something more than small sample outlier (results) to his poor pitching on the road.

[sheethead]

I don't see how this experiment could possibly work out well for Ned. Along the lines of a post at NSBB, if Suppan's splits are 4 runs better on a Tuesday than they are on a Wednesday, then Ned should adjust his rotation to make sure Suppan never pitches on a Wed.

 

The home/road platoon seems overboard bonkers to me. Now that this can of worms is open, there is no stopping where the platooning lunacy can be defined. Let's break out the home/road splits on everybody. Get those computers churning. Does Counsell bat and play better defense than Hardy on the road? Better get him in there for the road games. I feel for Dave Bush, all he has done is dominate over the last month and this is his reward. Dave Bush, you've just been YOSTED!

[RU Rah Rah]

Career road ERA:

 

Seth McClung (155 IP): 6.78

 

So you don't think he's been pitching better lately? Fair enough.

 

Sorry... I couldn't resist.

 

You seem content to throw Bush statistics back at me, called them skewed, small samples, etc., etc. That's cool.

But show me the stats showing that McClung is a better option on the road, and let's subject them to the same kind of analysis.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

These comments from Ned is the ones that struck me, and that I agree with...

 

"I want to continue pitching both instead of just burying one in the pen in a long role."

 

What I cannot figure out is how it hasn't occurred to Yost (or any of the other apparent imbeciles that manage MLB teams and insist on having a pitcher fill this role) that if you don't want to "bury" an average-ish pitcher by restricting his usage to totally inconsequential innings in complete blowouts, maybe the problem is with that usage pattern. Does this mean that you must keep a terrible pitcher on the 25 man roster at all times, because otherwise you're not optimally filling the role that has somehow morphed into nothing more than a way to hide a terrible pitcher?

 

And don't we already have 2 terrible pitchers on the 25 man roster we're only willing to pitch in blowouts?

 

And wouldn't it be nice to have another good short reliever (without further depleting the diminishing supply of prospects in the high minors), so that Villy, Riske, and Shouse (or whoever it turns out at the time hasn't blown a hold recently) don't have to pitch in every single game if you don't have a blowout for a while?

 

I will somehow restrain myself from additional commentary on the manner of statistical analysis driving this decision.

 

[sheethead]

Career road ERA:

 

Seth McClung (155 IP): 6.78

Dave Bush (354 IP): 5.42

I like this. Where were these splits a week ago?

[Bucky Rules]

Does this mean that you must keep a terrible pitcher on the 25 man roster at all times, because otherwise you're not optimally filling the role that has somehow morphed into nothing more than a way to hide a terrible pitcher?

I agree. It seems pretty senseless. I think the idea with the long reliever might be that you want to save him for situations where a three or four inning stint might be necessary. The thinking being -- he's used to handling longer outings. I don't know. It doesn't seem that situation comes up often enough to waste a guy out in lala land.

 

And don't we already have 2 terrible pitchers on the 25 man roster we're only willing to pitch in blowouts?

At least.

 

I will somehow restrain myself from additional commentary on the manner of statistical analysis driving this decision.

Yes. I know, and I'm sorry to be a part of it. I just couldn't help myself when someone makes a point that even the few starts does nothing to support. One can argue that the numbers this season mean nothing. One shouldn't argue that the results of this season are something other than what they are. Bush has been awful on the road all season. He has been very good at home. Whether or not that means we should try a platoon is another question. But those two facts are undeniable (I would think).

[RU Rah Rah]

McClung's road starts have been:

 

at Wash: 5 IP/2 ER

at Hous: 6IP/2 ER

at Minn: 4.2 IP/5 ER

at Ari: 5.1 IP/2 ER

 

That's a 4.30 ERA over 23 IP in his 4 starts on the road. Even under MLB's liberal (and ridiculous) criteria, only one of those was a "quality start." (And one was against the Nats, for crying out loud.)

[naivin]

But show me the stats showing that McClung is a better option on the road, and let's subject them to the same kind of analysis.

Is McClung a better option on the road? Debateable, but possible. Is Bush a better option at home? The past couple seasons would seem to indicate the answer is almost undeniably yes. That to me is the biggest driver behind this, along with the miriad of issues regarding Jeff Suppan, the bullpen, trades that may or may not have been planned or made, which may provide plenty or reason to do this for a couple weeks. There may well be plenty we don't know about this.

 

I'll ask those who are so opposed to this one more time, what do you expct the ultimate impact of this to be in terms of wins and losses?

[And That]

Is McClung a better option on the road? Debateable, but possible. Is Bush a better option at home? The past couple seasons would seem to indicate the answer is almost undeniably yes.

Ok, but if a pitcher is definitely better at home and only possibly worse on the road, why go through the hassle of the platoon in the first place? I think that's the stretch of logic by Yost that most of us are concerned about. It's just unnecessary.

Keep Bush in the rotation, move McClung to the pen, boot Mota. That seems to make much more logical sense to me than having 6 dudes in the rotation and a struggling pitcher in the pen.

 

Edit:

I'll ask those who are so opposed to this one more time, what do you expct the ultimate impact of this to be in terms of wins and losses?

The ultimate impact might be very little, assuming this little experiment doesn't last for more than a few weeks or maybe a month. The projected impact on the rotation will be almost non-existent, but it throws off the habitual patterns of Bush's and McClung's schedule, might put extra stress on the pen, and definitely does not help the pen.

 

[Bucky Rules]

You seem content to throw Bush statistics back at me, called them skewed, small samples, etc., etc. That's cool.

But show me the stats showing that McClung is a better option on the road, and let's subject them to the same kind of analysis.

I only threw Bush stats at you because you made a false statement. That's the only reason. You said his numbers were skewed by poor early season results. They weren't. He's been horrible all season on the road. I don't need to examine McClung's numbers. I'm not arguing that McClung should be pitching. I merely said your argument was fufu.

[sheethead]

I'll ask those who are so opposed to this one more time, what do you expct the ultimate impact of this to be in terms of wins and losses?

Negative impact on W/L, negative impact on Bush and McClung, negative impact on Cubs/Cards fans taking Milwaukee (and Yost) seriously, and negative impact on the bullpen (as it would be much improved sans Mota). This decision, while not surprising to me, is a biproduct of Yost thinking again. I wish he would stop doing that.

 

Are you in favor of this platoon, or are you just defending Yost?

[giffted1]

Negative impact on W/L, negative impact on Bush and McClung, negative impact on Cubs/Cards fans taking Milwaukee (and Yost) seriously, and negative impact on the bullpen (as it would be much improved sans Mota).

So how many wins do you think it'll cost us? How will Bush and McClung be harmed? Why should we care about what Cubs and Cardinals fans think?