McClung to bullpen? -- Yost to platoon McClung and Bush -- Latest: platoon over; Bush back in rotation full-time (reply #165)

[jhart05]

Yeah, if this works, stick with it. If not, you just let the guy who is doing well keep going. I doubt both of them will bomb.

 

Plus it keeps them both stretched out if Suppan can't turn it around, then you put Soupp out in the pen. (But I think Soupp will be fine.)

[brewtank34]

I'm not saying this is a good idea/bad idea...I'm going to wait and see.

 

But to all of you who are saying this is an idiotic idea by Ned, I'll ask you all to come on this thread in a month from now and apologize to Ned if it works (and I'm not a Ned supporter FYI). Just because it's never been done before doesn't mean it can't work. I'm really hoping that it does work, only for the reason that if it does, that means that the Crew stays in the postseason chase. I'm crossing my fingers!!!!

[1992casey]

I'm skeptical on this one as well. However, I saw a post from rluz that quoted a study that suggested that Bush actually DOES pitch much different in the ballparks not named Miller Park.

Here's that post:

rluzinski wrote:

---

Bush has definitely been doing something differently on the road than at home this year:

 

Dave Bush is a man of mystery

 

I'm still not sure about this idea about only pitching him at home. I just don't see it being very practical.

For reference, here's the link to the old Bush/McClung platoon thread, now locked in favor of this one:

 

Platoon Dave Bush

[Fatter than Joey]

I'll ask you all to come on this thread in a month from now and apologize to Ned if it works

 

No.

 

Going to Vegas and betting the company payroll on black, has a ~50% chance of working, but remains a bad idea.

 

The problems I have are....

 

1.) We have noticed that Bush has pitched different on the road, but we do not know what the cause is. We should understand the cause (if there is one)

before applying solutions.

 

2.) Dave bush struggled a lot in the beginning of the season, most of our early games were road games. If Bush was struggling with his mechanics, he very likely would have

done so on the road.

 

3.) If Bush truly struggles out on the road -- you cant let him pitch out of the BP either. This means Bush is burning up a roster spot to only pitch at home.

 

4.) There is a whole aspect of practical application, throwing McClung in and out of the rotation.

 

5.) As I have said before "the road" is a composite of 15 stadiums, I could see a pitcher being a bad match for one specific park, but all 15? -- Dave Bush is going to

struggle in Petco, and Great American? -- Does not compute.

 

6.) Suppan has similar splits to Bush road v. home

 

If Bush truly does have road WHOAS, then I think the solution would be to put Suppan in rotation and move Bush out, and let Bush pitch only out of the BP at home -- which would

probably be a poor use of a roster spot.

[Bucky Rules]

Going to Vegas and betting the company payroll on black, has a ~50% chance of working, but remains a bad idea.

I think there must be a better analogy than that for this situation. It's not like we get one spin of the wheel, and if we lose there's no turning back. The Brewers still get to pull most of their chips of the table. Did you ever try doing that at a Vegas roullette table?

[phxMILWfan]

I think that at some point, perhaps August the best thing to do is go to a 4 man rotation and give Bush and McClung "spot starts" when a fifth starter is required. How do you keep the non-starter in this case ready for his next start? Have him throw a simulated game the same day? Then he is useless the rest of the time. If you use the non-starter in between turns he is not fresh and ready for his next start. On paper and in theory this is a great idea, I just don't see it working long term. Which also makes me wonder if Yost goes to a 4 man rotation in August. Your only really worried about Parra's arm after this year. If Sheets and Sabathia are over worked who cares it's another teams problem next year anyway. Suppan isn't someone I lose sleep over if they are over worked.

[shelmark]

I don't think Mota will be released...I have a feeling Prince has been twisting on his arm for a while and he should be sore enough for the DL by Tuesday.

[naivin]

I think there must be a better analogy than that for this situation. It's not like we get one spin of the wheel, and if we lose there's no turning back.

 

Agreed. This decision is more along the lines of betting $5 on black. Maybe it'll work out and maybe it won't. Yost seems to be admitting as much and truly seems to be using this as a means to try to find the best long term solution for the remainder of the season.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think there must be a better analogy than that for this situation.

 

Perhaps. The point remains, though that the Brewers are able to win games, in spite of Yost's idiocy.

 

I can find crazy splits on just about any Brewer:

 

Sheets -- 6.43 ERA on turf

Hart -- .486 OPS with Bases Loaded

Cameron -- .291 OPS with a guy at 3rd.

Counsell -- .978 OPS against power pitchers

Braun -- .440 OPS with only a guy on 1st.

Prince -- .123 OPS w/o eating a cheeseburger

etc.

 

Anyway -- Bush (for a backend rotation dude) is pitching quite well recently, Suppan on the other hand, has a similar home/road split -- but is struggling as of late. Suppan is not going to the BP because of his salary though.

 

We are starting McClung -- who could be used in our BP in the stead of Mota, while Bush has actually had a decent start in STL.

 

It makes no sense to skip Bush at this point.

 

It seems we are now burning 2 roster spots on pitchers we have no intention of using in STL (Bush & Mota) -- I suspect/hope Mota gets DFA'd when Suppan comes off of the DL -- and it seems like McClung could soak up the innings that Mota was previously getting.

 

Our next 2 road series -- STL/ATL -- Bush pitched decent in both parks.

[naivin]

The point remains, though that the Brewers are able to win games, in spite of Yost's idiocy.

Keep beating that drum at every opportunity. Its an absolutely brilliant way to have your cake and eat it too. If they win, it'll be in spite of him. If the lose, it'll be because of him. I love it. Since nearly all managers are eventually fired, someday you'll be able to say "I knew it all along." In the meantime, you'll have a convenient and obvious scapegoat if by some minute chance the Brewers don't manage to win the World Series.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Bush is a far better pitcher than McClung and as such should be in the rotation. Only yost could be idiotic enough to try this split roation slot. Bush has been the best Brewers starter for the last month and not starting him in St Louis is a huge mistake.

[Bucky Rules]

Only yost could be idiotic enough to try this split roation slot.

The point remains, though that the Brewers are able to win games, in spite of Yost's idiocy.

Do you guys really believe that Yost makes a move like this on his own? Do you really think he hasn't run this by Melvin? Do you really think that Melvin hasn't run it by his own stat guys and scouts? Do you really think that this idea even originated with Yost? Come on. You guys aren't that... well... I'll let you choose the word.

[RU Rah Rah]

It makes no sense to skip Bush at this point.

Totally agree with entire post, FTJ. Bush's road stats are skewed by some rotten road starts earlier in the year. He's a different pitcher now, and getting him out of this groove seems like a horrible decision to me. Plus, as you said, putting McClung in the 'pen would help mitigate (or eliminate?) the Mota problem.

[Fatter than Joey]

Its an absolutely brilliant way to have your cake and eat it too. If they win, it'll be in spite of him. If the lose, it'll be because of him. I love it.

 

I think this move is idiotic -- regardless of the outcome or who made the decision.

 

I have made 3 posts in this thread showing why I think it is idiotic. I am sincerely interested in any sort of argument as to why a rotation platoon is a good move. It would be pretty easy to counter my arguments if one had the ability to do so -- otherwise back off from the tired idea that I need to scapegoat Yost.

 

In the meantime, you'll have a convenient and obvious scapegoat if by some minute chance the Brewers don't manage to win the World Series.

 

You really think the chances that the Brewers don't win the WS is minute?

 

Do you really think that this idea even originated with Yost?

 

Yes -- This is a very classic Yostian decision and misuse of data.

 

Do you guys really believe that Yost makes a move like this on his own? Do you really think he hasn't run this by Melvin?

 

I think these questions are fair. I suspect that DM has signed off on this, and if he has he should be fired as well.

 

Do you really think that Melvin hasn't run it by his own stat guys and scouts?

 

Again, this is fair -- I am sure that stat guys have weighed in on it, and either they are being ignored, or their opinions are being misused.

[cwolf2012]

If it's a soft platoon and either is available off the bench, even if he is scheduled to start the next day, then I'm okay with it. I feel that Bush should be getting every start until he falters again, but whatever.

 

If this is a strict platoon, then it's a waste of time and resources.

[Bucky Rules]

Bush's road stats are skewed by some rotten road starts earlier in the year. He's a different pitcher now

That statement is completely untrue. Bush has had quality starts in every home start since May 12. Since that time he has had five road starts and four of them were awful.

[naivin]

So he made one good road start in Atlanta on June 24th and he's a different pitcher now? What about the rest of the season? What about last season when he was also appreciably worse away from Miller Park? Waht about the same story in 2006? How exactly is a he a different pitcher?

 

For the record, I personally would have gone with Bush as teh starter and put McClung in the pen, but to conclude that is some sort of no-brainer based on a good month, ignores an awful lot of data, which ironically enough seems to be what critics are accusing Yost of doing.

[RU Rah Rah]

Bush's road stats are skewed by some rotten road starts earlier in the year. He's a different pitcher now

That statement is completely untrue. Bush has had quality starts in every home start since May 12. Since that time he has had five road starts and four of them were awful.

Sorry, not taking the bait this time. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I don't mean to suggest that there's a revolutionary new Dave Bush who's comparable to CC or Sheets. I really just mean that I'm more influenced by his 13 K performance on July 10 than his abysmal start at Wrigley on April 3.

[Bucky Rules]

Its an absolutely brilliant way to have your cake and eat it too. If they win, it'll be in spite of him. If the lose, it'll be because of him. I love it.

 

I think this move is idiotic -- regardless of the outcome or who made the decision.... otherwise back off from the tired idea that I need to scapegoat Yost.

Your point is clear. I don't even disagree with you for the most part, although I fall far short of calling it idiotic. I'll remain skeptical. But, as long as they're open minded to dumping the idea, I'm OK with giving it shot.

 

Having said that... IMO naivin was jumping on you for your much more general comment of how the Brewers win in spite of Ned's idiocy. That comment seemed to go beyond the boundaries of this one decision -- since clearly this decision has had no impact on the Brewers record to date.

[Fatter than Joey]

What about last season when he was also appreciably worse away from Miller Park?

 

Those numbers are heavily influenced by a 1IP 9ER start in Cincy.

[Bucky Rules]

I don't mean to suggest that there's a revolutionary new Dave Bush who's comparable to CC or Sheets. I really just mean that I'm more influenced by his 13 K performance on July 10 than his abysmal start at Wrigley on April 3

I'm not trying to bait you. His road numbers are simply not skewed by bad starts early in the season. Every road start he's had all season (except one) has been bad. In spite of him getting right for his home starts, he has continued to be dreadful on the road. Your statement was untrue, and I don't think it should be left out there unchallenged.

[RU Rah Rah]

If you go back to May 27, home and away, here is Bush's line:

 

2.70 ERA, .210 OBP, 40 SO, 8 BB, over 60 innings.

 

Again, I don't necessarily think that's going to last forever; he's not going to put up those kind of numbers over the long haul. But to see that kind of roll from the your #5 starter and then take him halfway out of the rotation seems weird to me.

[naivin]

I think these questions are fair. I suspect that DM has signed off on this, and if he has he should be fired as well.

Definitely time to clean house based on this decision. Maybe then this team will win some games.

 

Seriously as far as this decision goes and why it may be a good decision, there are 2.5 seasons of data that suggest that Dave Bush pitches appreciably better at Miller Park. Whether that can be translated into a succesful platoon situation remains to be seen. You have made up your mind that its a bad idea, I suspect partly based on the person who (you believe) made the decisions...Yes -- This is a very classic Yostian decision and misuse of data. Please don't insult our intelligence by suggesting that Yost making this descision does not impact your feelings on it.

 

Beyond that, I suspect Suppan's status is playing into this a little bit as well, along with the bullpen. One of these guys is being pushed to the pen, and this arrangement seems to be designed largely around making sure they select the right one. Are they 'wasting a roster spot' in the event that Suppan cannot come back and pitch effectively and both of these guys will be needed to start? BTW, due to the impact on teh roster, of course Doug Melvin was involved (and therefore should be fired).

 

It will obviously affect both guys' routines, but in the end I would suspect the impact will ultimatley be on 1 or 2 starts. Those couple starts could prove to be a huge disaster. then again, it could also work out. Until you can provide eveidence to suggest that upsetting the routines is something they can't handle and the results will be bad, I'm not sure you can conclude it is a bad idea based only on that, or how it is a misuse of data. Over the next couple weeks it'll settle itself - either it will work out and they'll stick with it, or one guy will stay in the rotation, and one guy will end up in the pen.

 

Is/Was there another trade in the works that may have played a role in this decision? I don't know, and neither do you, but it certainly seems possible.

 

We are talking about Dave Bush and Seth McClung here, not Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia. I would be interested to know what the expected W-L impact of this is.

[Bucky Rules]

If you go back to May 27, home and away, here is Bush's line:

 

2.70 ERA, .210 OBP, 40 SO, 8 BB, over 60 innings.

 

Again, I don't necessarily think that's going to last forever; he's not going to put up those kind of numbers over the long haul. But to see that kind of roll from the your #5 starter and then take him halfway out of the rotation seems weird to me.

Do we really need to even get into how completely distorted these stats are because you not-so-arbitrarily chose May 27 as your starting point? Come on. Run the numbers since May 12 (when he had his 1st good home start) and show the difference between home and road, and then we can talk. Or AT LEAST be intellectually honest enough to show the difference between road and home numbers in the skewed dates that you did choose.

 

I don't even disagree with your desired result, but the method you choose to demonstrate it just looks like you're manipulating the data to prove your pre-determined conclusion.

 

 

[naivin]

Those numbers are heavily influenced by a 1IP 9ER start in Cincy.

 

Fine, we'll pretend that never happened http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/eyes.gif and take it out. He's still over a run worse on the road. Do you have an excuse for 2006? What about 2008? His numbers this season are heavily influenced by his 7IP 1ER start at Colorado. Any other starts we should ignore to make the numbers support your position?