Player midseason grades

[Fatter than Joey]

You should expect a marginal decline in true talent every year after around 29-30. It's just not going to show itself so perfectly over a 600 AB season.

 

I tend to agree with this -- however, I do not agree that:

 

Cam35= Cam34 - decline.

 

I think Cameron had a exceptionally bad year in 2007, and while I am sure his skills are declining, I don't think his 2007 drop is due entirely to his age. I think his talent level is closer to:

 

2005 .273 .342 .477

2006 .268 .355 .482

 

Or some sort of average of these two years.

 

Now if we look at 2008:

 

May .212 .262 .451

June .203 .324 .475

 

Those I hope we can agree are overall pretty disappointing.

 

July .306 .432 .583

 

So he has had a comparatively great July (so far) -- now I dont think Cameron will finish the year hitting .306, but I think a .270ish BA for the 2nd half is a very reasonable expectation to have for Cameron.

 

I think the reason for his bad OBP in May/June is because he is striking out way more than he should -- and at the expense of getting hits. This is probably somehow related to his suspension. Cameron was striking out at a 35+% clip in May/June, and so far in July he has lowered that to 25% -- which is more in line with what he has done in 2005-2008.

 

It's kind of odd that you didn't copy the part that says that his higher than expected SLG makes up for that.

 

I don't think so. I think his SLG, even in May/June is right where it should be -- I think the drain on Cam's production comes from the OBP side of the OPS -- I just find that obvious.

 

The reason I graded Cameron lower up to this point in the season, is primarily because he has not been hitting the ball, as evidenced by his 35+% strikeout rate for May/June. I don't think you can chalk this up to luck, or randomness -- I think it needs to be chalked up to bad AB's for Cam. Thus my disappointment and a C-, based on what he has done until this point.

 

If Cam keeps hitting like I think he can, and keeps his K-rate at 25% (last 3 yr. norm), his OBP will rise and I think he can hit in the .270ish range.

 

but they (offensive #) aren't worse than his projection predicted.

 

I think those projections weighed 2007 too heavily. Whoever made that projection can make their own grade, I don't fall in line or agree with every projection.

 

You said this on your blog...

.252/.334/.439/.773 -- Keep in mind, that projection does not account for Cameron having to play half his games the last two years in a pitcher's park, so that projection should be a tad conservative.

And I agree with that -- I think a .252 BA is conservative, so when he is hitting .230ish -- I feel he is off the mark.

 

No big deal that you aren't satisfied with his offensive numbers

 

I am beginning to think that this is not the case.

[joepepsi]

Cameron has hit .270 or above once in 14 seasons. He hit .268 once and .267 twice. For the most part his entire career has played in home parks that favor pitchers. Nevertheless, his home/away splits aren't that dramatic. Here's his "away" split for his career: .257/.345/.468--.813. Here are his overall career rates: .250/.340/.447--.786. I'd say for a .250 career hitter, it is as likely he will hit .270 some year as it is he will hit .230 in another year.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'd say for a .250 career hitter, it is as likely he will hit .270 some year as it is he will hit .230 in another year.

 

So would you consider .230 disappointing for a season (for Cameron)?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

So would you consider .230 disappointing for a season (for Cameron)?

No, not if his OPS+ is 108. I'm not concerned about batting average. There are better statistics to look at out there.

[Fatter than Joey]

No, not if his OPS+ is 108.

 

OPS+ measures his production against the rest of the league -- If you think 100 is a good benchmark for Cameron, then you are undoubtedly pleased -- I think he should be further

removed from the average.

 

I'm not concerned about batting average.

 

You should be, it is a primary component of OPS. You cannot toss around OPS+ and disregard BA.

 

There are better statistics to look at out there.

 

Such as?

 

It seems to me anyway our disagreement lies entirely in expectation and not in statistical usage.

[Wesrob1]

I'd give Braun a B for execution, nice transition to the outfield, good power--but the F I gave him is for wasting his talent (although I realize that wasn't made explicit). Braun has a chance to be an Albert P. type hitter, a once or twice in a generation player, but his plate discipline is bad, and it's getting so obvious that it's almost laughable. Get two strikes and throw the ball into another zipcode and he's gonna swing. When is he gonna learn? When is he gonna be professional enough, intelligent enough, when is he gonna care enough to lay off of that pitch consistently and then start punishing pitchers who have to come back to his zone? Does he watch tape? I'm serious, he should embarrassed at times. I know that all good hitters are going to look bad on two strike pitches out of the zone and in the dirt sometimes, but to do it so consistently is a tragedy to me. Now if he doesn't have the physical ability, or the mental acuity to be a better player, then I'm just wrong and so be it. My expectations were that he would have a ..300 to 310/.375 to .400 line, but he's not giving himself a chance. He's wasting his talent and hurting his team in the sense that he is not fulfilling anywhere near his potential.

 

I have to say I agree with you TBadder. I noticed the same thing, 2 strikes on him and the pitcher throws low and outside to him and he chases. He's predictable in those situations. I sure hope he is watching tape on himself at the plate or at least someone in the clubhouse has pointed that out to him during the break so he get's that corrected. It's his biggest hole in his game right now, but I have faith he'll figure it out.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

OPS+ measures his production against the rest of the league -- If you think 100 is a good benchmark for Cameron, then you are undoubtedly pleased -- I think he should be further

removed from the average.

Yes. I know this, but thank you. My point is that if he is above the league average in offense and playing good defense, which he has besides a few misplayed balls this year that stick in all of our minds, then he's right at where I expected him and I'm very satisfied with that. I think that being disappointed in Cameron at this point is not the correct, but that is just my opinion.

 

Such as?

 

It seems to me anyway our disagreement lies entirely in expectation and not in statistical usage.

OPS, OBP, OPS+, Runs Created per 27 Outs.

 

All of those statistics have batting average somehow factored into them, but they also show more about a player than just the amount of hits they got per the amount of AB's. Since they provide a better picture of how Cameron is playing, I would lean towards those statistics as indicators and not just batting average.

 

How do you feel about the walks Cameron is taking? Batting average doesn't take that into account. How do you feel about his slugging percentage?

[Fatter than Joey]

My point is that if he is above the league average in offense and playing good defense, which he has besides a few misplayed balls this year that stick in all of our minds, then he's right at where I expected him and I'm very satisfied with that.

 

I think 2007 was universally considered a bad year for Cam, and he had a 103 OPS+. I expect Cam to be considerably above the league average.

 

I would lean towards those statistics as indicators and not just batting average.

 

I have clearly not exclusively used BA in my arguments, and you seem at this point just to be regurgitating things posted on this message board in bygone threads.

 

How do you feel about the walks Cameron is taking? Batting average doesn't take that into account.

 

I am a big OBP guy -- and basically OBP has 2 components -- hits & walks. Cam's OBP is down with Cam's walk rate right about what it should be, therefore the culprit is BA. When you look at BA, I think you have 2 ways of questioning it -- is a player getting unlucky? or is a player struggling? Looking at Cam's data, the first thing that should jump out at the reader is his increased K rate -- this is an indication to me that he struggled mightily in May/June, rather than getting lots of line drive outs.

 

I think the crux of our disagreement is that you expect Cameron to be a league average player (OPS+ 100), such as Kahlil Greene in 2007. I expect Cameron to be better.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Actually I expect Cameron to be slightly above league average which is right where he is at right now and it's where he's been at his whole career. Therefore I'm satisfied. I'm also very happy with his slugging percentage.

[joepepsi]

I'd say for a .250 career hitter, it is as likely he will hit .270 some year as it is he will hit .230 in another year.

 

So would you consider .230 disappointing for a season (for Cameron)?

Yes, if Cameron hits .230 for the season I will disappointed. But at this stage in his season the difference between .250 and .230 is 4 hits. Given his slugging is up this year, and as you say his walk rate is equal to his career rate, I'm not going to get too concerned with a 4 hit difference in his batting average. In fact, since his power is up and his walk rate is the same, I'm thinking he'll make up that 4 hit deficit and be right around .250-.260 by the end of the year.

 

[Patrick425]

Wow, I can't believe I have not looked at this thread until now. Generally, mid season and year end "grades" don't really excite me. That's why we keep stats, not really a reason for grades on top of that.

 

Anyways, not to add fuel to the fire, but nice debate on Cameron. As I have pointed out in other threads, I'm not a huge Cameron fan. I don't know how anyone can look at his stats and think he's having a great offensive year. A .800 OPS is good but doesn't thrill me. Not for a guy getting paid $6 million+. I know, I know..it's today's market, it's the way it is, still doesn't mean I can't sit and shake my head at it. I know he doesn't have as many ABs, but Kapler has a .868 OPS and makes a fraction of what Cameron does.

 

What really kills me is all the outrageous claims at the beginning of the season about what a offensive juggernaut Cameron would be this year after leaving Petco Park. I don't see it. As far as not trying to expect too much out of a guy who is 35. This is exactly my point and was the basis of my argument not to sign him to begin with, not for $6 million.

[TooLiveBrew]

What really kills me is all the outrageous claims at the beginning of the season about what a offensive juggernaut Cameron would be this year after leaving Petco Park.

 

What outrageous claims? I can only remember people making the reasonable assertion that moving out of a batter-killing park to a HR-friendly park would help Cam.

[logan82]

TooLiveBrew wrote:

What outrageous claims? I can only remember people making the reasonable assertion that moving out of a batter-killing park to a HR-friendly park would help Cam.

Don't forget about the claim that he would hit over 20 HR's this year.

[Fatter than Joey]

I make outrageous claims fueled by my pure hatred.

[Fatter than Joey]

Yes, if Cameron hits .230 for the season I will disappointed.

 

As would I, and is part of the reason I graded him lower at this point.

 

But at this stage in his season the difference between .250 and .230 is 4 hits

 

Did you know the difference between gold and lead is 4 protons? -- I understand what you are saying, however, the fact that 4 hits = .020 points ia sort of an inherent given when discussing midseason grades.

 

I'm thinking he'll make up that 4 hit deficit and be right around .250-.260 by the end of the year.

 

I think so, and as I stated before I think Cam can still rake at a .270ish level -- I have High Hopes!

[TooLiveBrew]

Don't forget about the claim that he would hit over 20 HR's this year.

 

Outrageous! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[logan82]

Don't forget about the claim that he would hit over 20 HR's this year.

 

Outrageous! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

I know. He would have to have at least 14 by now to even have a chance.

 

FTJ, I think your expectations for Cameron are to high, but I won't argue with your grades. I posted my own grades instead. I also graded on what the player has done to this point. I really don't care if a player is only 4 hits shy of some mark. Bottom line, they are not there.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

A .800 OPS is good but doesn't thrill me.

It doesn't thrill me either, but it's above average for a CF and it's satisfied my expectations.

[TerraceReserved]

A .800 OPS is good but doesn't thrill me.

It doesn't thrill me either, but it's above average for a CF and it's satisfied my expectations.

 

Exactly. He filled in a missing spot on the team and has given slightly above average production.

 

I won't hand out any grades, but easily the largest dissapointment is Rickie. After hitting .251/.422/.481/.903 in the 2nd half last year, I thought that he could produce more similar to that this year. Instead we've seen his BA fall along with his walk rates and power.

I don't really know what to make of his .257 BABIP. His infield fly ball rate is down to 16.1% form 17.4% last year, so it's not that. However, his groundball rate is way up, and flyball rate way down, which is not a good thing. In addition to that, his line drive rate is down 3%. From my perception this year, it does seem as if he's hit into an inordinate amount of screaming liners hit right at fielders. That could be completely wrong, but that's what I've felt. It will be interesting to see if he can pull himself out of this half year slump and actually contribute the 2nd half. The Brewers could really benefit from that.

[rluzinski]

Mike Cameron: .237/.329/.502/.831

 

He's now easily beating his preseason projection from every major projection system. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

And $6 mil for solid defense and above average offense (for his position) is a steal. Who the hell called him an "offensive juggernaut", anyway? You get the exaggeration trophy for the week.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Who the hell called him an "offensive juggernaut", anyway? You get the exaggeration trophy for the week.

It wasn't me, but the trophy is currently sitting in my basement so I'll FedEx it to whoever owns up to it.

[danzig6767]

Patrick425 wrote:

Anyways, not to add fuel to the fire, but nice debate on Cameron. As I have pointed out in other threads, I'm not a huge Cameron fan. I don't know how anyone can look at his stats and think he's having a great offensive year. A .800 OPS is good but doesn't thrill me. Not for a guy getting paid $6 million+. I know, I know..it's today's market, it's the way it is, still doesn't mean I can't sit and shake my head at it. I know he doesn't have as many ABs, but Kapler has a .868 OPS and makes a fraction of what Cameron does.

 

What really kills me is all the outrageous claims at the beginning of the season about what a offensive juggernaut Cameron would be this year after leaving Petco Park. I don't see it. As far as not trying to expect too much out of a guy who is 35. This is exactly my point and was the basis of my argument not to sign him to begin with, not for $6 million.

 

 

You actually think Cameron is either overpaid or way overpaid?

 

Once you remove quality youngsters playing CF for other teams that haven't played long enough yet to get paid equal to their actual performance, good luck trying to find a veteran CF's that play very good defense and can also carry an .800 OPS for less than six million dollars.

 

A small total of only 8 CF's in baseball are carrying an OPS higher than Cameron and one of them, Aaron Rowand, is basically tied in OPS. This offseason, three other veteran CF's were available in free agency, Rowand, Hunter, and Andruw Jones. With the glove, i'd stack Cameron up with Hunter and better than Rowand and a fat A.Jones.

 

Rowand= 5yr/60 million--12 million per year Rowand has a .804OPS

Hunter = 5yr/80 million--18 million per year Hunter has a .782OPS

A Jones= 2yr/36 million= 18 million per year Jones has a .513OPS

Cameron=1yr/6 million = 6 million Cameron has a .801OPS

 

The CF's in baseball with a higher OPS

 

Sizemore= Absolutely not available to Doug

Hamilton= Traded for the possible CY Young winner in the NL

McLouth= Cheap youngster because it's only his fourth year, no need for the Pirate to shop him

Ankiel= Another guy still cheap because of limited service time and Cards had no reason to shop him

Granderson= Fabulous and unavailable young player for the Tigers

Beltran= Very good veteran CF making 15 million per season

DeJesus= Very solid all around player tht many teams inquired about, but KC didn't want to trade

 

The Brewers had a very bad need to improve their defense and after shifting Braun to left and Hall to 3rd, a CF was a real need. Cameron isn't the best defensive CF in the game, but he's still in the upper tier and as i pointed out above, the list of CF's with a higher OPS isn't long. Every CF with a higher OPS is either a younger cheap player under cost control than very likely wasn't really available for us to get or there is Beltran with a huge contract. I also showed the much bigger contracts and performance to date of the three other veteran free agent CF's who were available. As for Kapler, his hitting numbers were terrible his prior three seasons. If there is a thread prior to the season where you were calling for him to be signed and that he'd have an .850 plus OPS, i'd love to see you point it out.

 

So, looking at what the other CF's in the game are producing, what the veterans not under cost control get paid, and who was realistically available in CF, i'm having a hard time seeing where your problem with Doug signing him for 6 million comes from, much less trying to imply Cameron is overpaid even in the slightest.

[logan82]

I think that $10M option for next year on Cameron is starting to look better and better.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I think that $10M option for next year on Cameron is starting to look better and better.

Especially now that LaPorta is gone. The other option would be to start the year with Gwynn in CF and then promote Brantley if he's playing well in AAA.