Player midseason grades

[Fatter than Joey]

I personally don't find the difference between 10-20 more singles disappointing enough to give Cam a grade as low as 'C-'.

 

I sure do -- Cam has 50 hits, 20 more singles would be a 40% in production -- that's significant.

 

He has hit less struck out more, I think C- is fair

[TooLiveBrew]

Cam has 50 hits, 20 more singles would be a 40% in production

 

I said 10-20 as a range, not 20 exact hits -- the point being that he's a handful of hits away from a significantly higher grade by anyone's standards.

 

 

If an A is around a .900 OPS, and a C- is .800-ish, that's a ton of variation within that range of .100 points http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Do you think his defense has been disappointing? That was roughly half the grade I used for each guy, and I certainly think Cam's D has been (objectively) well above average. Meaning, his offense would have to get graded at roughly a low D or F to get him down to a C-.

[Fatter than Joey]

If an A is around a .900 OPS, and a C- is .800-ish, that's a ton of variation within that range of .100 points

 

100 points is huge -- there is an immense difference between a .200 hitter and a .300 hitter.

 

If Cameron had 20 more hits, (70 instead of 50) I'd think I'd grade him higher -- but he doesn't. He has been hitting less and striking out more, that sucks.

 

Do you think his defense has been disappointing?

 

He is certainly better than what we had last year -- but I think his D is a little less than I expected.

[logan82]

League average OPS for a CF is around .740. Like most of our players, Cameron has a SLG heavy OPS, meaning that they are above league average for thier postion in SLG, but under in OBP.

[Tbadder]

I think there are only a few grades that matter.

 

Melvin A for effort, B for execution

 

Yost B for effort, C for stupid players dragging his grade down

 

Braun D for effort, F for hitting his head against the wall, tragically mindless approach at the plate has turned him into a .275 hitter (my prediction for end of the year average) when his talent says .310, lousy OBP, instead of elite he's merely good, I just shake my head

 

Fielder B for effort, C for lack of improvement in the field, slovenly ways, I can't believe this guy eats in between outs on the field, he's pig and he's gonna eat himself outta the league, has trouble bending, can't hit the low ball because of it, but the guy has a brain and a heart at the plate late in the game, tries to hang in there and get his pitch unlike Braun who can't wait to get back to the bench

 

Weeks B for effort, D for execution, I love how this guy tries so hard, extra fielding, constant work, he just doesn't have it, too much potential to give up on (you just know if they trade him he'll breakout and embarrass everyone except Utley) I give him one more year

 

Hart B for talent, A- for effort, the best player on the Brewers, B+ for execution, if he really works on his defense and makes himself into a centerfielder the addition of Gamel could give Milwaukee the best outfield in baseball, love this guy

 

Gagne No Grade for effort, D- for execution, I just feel sorry for this guy, he knows how truly bad he is, his career while not in jeopardy is in effect over, fans will make him into a caricature wherever he ends up, a failed experiment, but if it woulda worked guys we would be looking at a possible 7 first round/sandwich picks next year, too bad, I'm really sad about this one

 

Sheets C for effort, A- for execution, making a contract run, boy oh boy, was I wrong about this guy's make up, reports that he sticks to himself, and hasn't really been a team player is disturbing and unfortunate, I'd love it if what I've heard isn't true and that I've got it all wrong, lately he's reverting to a thrower and not a pitcher, when is he gonna get serious a perfect that change up (which would make him absolutely devastatingly good instead of merely an All-Star)

[joepepsi]

If Cameron had 70 hits he'd be hitting .320 right now! That's higher than he's ever hit in professional ball. By a long shot. Expecting a player, particularly one who has 6500+ plate appearances, to suddenly hit for a batting average 70 points higher than his career average is unrealistic, and frankly, silly. Seems like I am always running into casual baseball fans who are disappointed by a player who performs at a level consistent with his career. It's like marrying an alcoholic then being upset that your spouse is a drunk.

[RobertR]

FYI, NL averages by position (BA/OBP/SLG)

 

Catcher .254/.328/.387

1B .274/.359/.472

2B .267/.333/.410

3B .269/.337/.452

SS .271/.330/.398

LF .263/.343/.443

CF .259/.327/.414

RF .270/.343/.436

 

Cameron has an OPS about .060 points above league average. And he's a very good defender. That's an awfully stiff curve some of you are grading him on.

 

Robert

[Fatter than Joey]

Seems like I am always running into casual baseball fans who are disappointed by a player who performs at a level consistent with his career. It's like marrying an alcoholic then being upset that your spouse is a drunk.

 

Wow. I'll start with this. Generally speaking, I am not sure that comparing casual fans to alcoholics is necessary.

 

Initially I would tend to agree with your admission to being foolish, -- expecting something from people that they are unable to provide -- however, upon further reflection I am convinced that you are in fact not foolish, rather you simply perhaps do not know what you are talking about or uninformed -- this is easily addressable and correctable.

 

If Cameron had 70 hits he'd be hitting .320 right now! That's higher than he's ever hit in professional ball.

 

You do not know this to be true. I am giving Cameron a "grade" based on 216 ABs. I suspect you have no idea if Cameron has ever hit .320 over a span of 216 ABs in his career.

 

Furthermore, are you contending that it would have been impossible for Cameron to hit .320 over 216 AB span? -- I think that is a hard position to defend as well.

 

Expecting a player, particularly one who has 6500+ plate appearances, to suddenly hit for a batting average 70 points higher than his career average is unrealistic, and frankly, silly

 

I have never said I expected Cameron to hit .320-- that was an argument created to help argue against my grade for Cameron. I was responding to TLB's idea that if Cameron had 20 more hits, I'd certainly have given him a better grade.

 

By definition, in this fun little thread, we are purposely grading players on small samples. We aren't trying to ascertain their value absolutely, or imply that a player is "good" or "bad" inherently, -- you seem to have not picked up on this aspect.

 

Along the same lines -- I never expected McClung to pitch nearly as well as he has as a starter, and I am not convinced that he will maintain his performance -- however, up to now grading him on these 10 stars and BP innings -- he gets a high grade from me because he has far exceeded what I had hoped what he has done.

 

Similarly -- Kendall would probably have gotten a "C-ish" grade from me as well, if he didn't blow me out of the water with his defense this year, and I ranked him higher, because he has really exceeded my expectations.

 

It is almost as if you are contending that players cannot exceed their career norms in small samples -- this is a very shaky assumption to work under.

 

The "C" grade is a baseline or average grade to me -- It's not bad necessarily. Cameron is overall below what I expected, and therefore gets a C-.

[Fatter than Joey]

Cameron has an OPS about .060 points above league average. And he's a very good defender. That's an awfully stiff curve some of you are grading him on

 

I am not grading him against the league average -- if you chose to do that, that is certainly one way to do it. My approach was to grade the player against what I had hoped they could bring to the table.

 

I don't see any point in doling out grades to players based on their league rankings -- we have spreadsheet technology to do that for us.

 

I thought the purpose of this thread was to be somewhat subjective -- which does not mean everyone has to do it that way, but certainly it adds some different approaches IMO and flavor to the discussion.

[Bucky Rules]

Tbadder -- a little harsh for the most important players on a team 9 games over, don't ya think?

[Oldcity]

Sheets C for effort??

 

Also I'm of the opinion that Mike Cameron is the best defensive center fielder I've seen the Brewers have. He's made a few boneheaded plays, but his range is tremendous.

[joepepsi]

Generally speaking, I am not sure that comparing casual fans to alcoholics is necessary.

I think you know I am not comparing casual fans to alcoholics. It was just an analogy about unrealistic expectations.

You do not know this to be true. I am giving Cameron a "grade" based on 216 ABs. I suspect you have no idea if Cameron has ever hit .320 over a span of 216 ABs in his career.

Furthermore, are you contending that it would have been impossible for Cameron to hit .320 over 216 AB span? -- I think that is a hard position to defend as well.

I have no doubt Cameron, like any ballplayer, has had hot stretches. Once again, my point : it's unrealistic to be disappointed when a player performs at a level consistent with his career.

 

By definition, in this fun little thread, we are purposely grading players on small samples. We aren't trying to ascertain their value absolutely, or imply that a player is "good" or "bad" inherently, -- you seem to have not picked up on this aspect.

I understand the purpose of the thread. You gave Cameron a lower mark because you expected more out of him. I pointed out he is playing pretty close to his career numbers and expecting more out of a player with 6500+ plate appearances than his career averages is probably not a realistic expectation.

 

You disagree. Fair enough.

[TooLiveBrew]

I am not grading him against the league average -- if you chose to do that, that is certainly one way to do it. My approach was to grade the player against what I had hoped they could bring to the table.

 

Yeah, this is where the divide sits. Thanks for expounding, FtJ -- helped me to understand your methodology & some other rankings (Kendall & McClung the obvious examples).

 

I prefer to compare to players' peers, others to their own personal expectations. It's not like Cam is going to get grounded for getting a C-! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[logan82]

Kendall(B)- Nice to have a good defender behind the plate

Fielder© - No power, No OBP, bad defense

Weeks(D+) - Only things going for Weeks are a nice Ba/OBP split and improved(not good) defense

Hall(D-) - Not hitting well, better defense at 3B than last year, still bad

Branyan(B+) - Had a few good weeks, doesn't hurt us on D

Hardy(A-) - One of only 2 player above league avg at their position(Fielder) in both OBP and SLG, solid defense

Braun(B-) - Good SLG, OBP is dissapointing, solid D

Cameron(B) - Nice to have a true CF on the team

Hart(C+) - Good SLG, OBP is dissapointing, solid D

Bench(A) - love the "throw away" games

 

Sheets(A) - this is what we have been expecting for years

Suppan© - so much for "the best ability is dependability"

Bush(B) - slow start, one of the best in baseball over the last 30 days, one of 4 starters who could get to 200+ innings by the end of the year

CC(inc) - good so far

McClung(B) - not bad, better than most people thought

Parra(B+) - needs to get deeper into games

Villy(B) - bad as starter, good in pen

Shouse(B) - LOOGY

Mota(F) - and I wasn't expecting much

Gange(F) - huge dissapointment

Torres(A) - solid and dependable

Riske(C-) - don't really have a good feel on him yet, was expecting a little more dependability

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Never said that. I certainly don't think Cameron should fall apart at 35 though. "C" is an average grade, Cameron is below what he could do IMO, thus C-.

You never did say that indeed, but since his numbers this year are pretty much on par with previous years as far as OPS, you're expectations of Cameron have been too high coming into this year if you expected more from a player at age 35.

 

I would tend to agree with TWR

 

Red flag

If that's not condescending, then I don't know what is.

[Fatter than Joey]

but since his numbers this year are pretty much on par with previous years as far as OPS

 

He is hitting less, and striking out more.

 

your expectations of Cameron have been too high coming into this year if you expected more from a player at age 35

 

That seems entirely arbitrary. Lou Brock stole 118 bases at the age of 35, (stealing 70 in 34). Many, many players have had productive and have seen improvement in seasons at 35, baseball is not that simplistic where "everyone declines at 35".

 

Furthermore, I was expecting a bump from leaving a pitchers park, and going to a hitters park in Milwaukee.

 

If that's not condescending, then I don't know what is.

 

You and TLB are rarely on the same page. It certainly made me go Hmmm.

[jjfanec]

Braun D for effort, F for hitting his head against the wall, tragically mindless approach at the plate has turned him into a .275 hitter (my prediction for end of the year average) when his talent says .310, lousy OBP, instead of elite he's merely good, I just shake my head

 

Fielder B for effort, C for lack of improvement in the field, slovenly ways, I can't believe this guy eats in between outs on the field, he's pig and he's gonna eat himself outta the league, has trouble bending, can't hit the low ball because of it, but the guy has a brain and a heart at the plate late in the game, tries to hang in there and get his pitch unlike Braun who can't wait to get back to the bench

Do you have something personally against Braun, that he is a D for effort and an F for other things yet Fielder gets a B and a C. Braun has a better OPS, is not near the butcher in the field and while Fielder does work more, just over double the times, Braun has more home runs, RBI's, strikeout per at bat are similar and Braun has been much better with RISP. This is where walks are valued too much. Yes Braun would be a lot better if he walked more but to give him an F just does not make sense. While Prince is two full letter grades ahead of him in both rankings yet doing worse at the plate and in the field.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

but since his numbers this year are pretty much on par with previous years as far as OPS

 

He is hitting less, and striking out more.

Yes but his OPS is still the same if not better than his career average. He may be hitting less, but that means he's hitting more for power and his OBP is back up to .320 so in my opinion Mike Cameron is a solid B.

 

Striking out more doesn't really bother me, but apparently it bothers you. Strikeouts do stick into people's memories more than a simple flyout does, but unless it advances a runner, you didn't really lose anything. I would be curious to see how Mike Cameron's Runs Created per 27 outs this year compares to his career average, but I'm not sure where to check that.

[Fatter than Joey]

Yes but his OPS is still the same if not better than his career average.

 

I am not interested really in his career average -- if you look at his last three years, his production in 2008 is below those numbers.

 

He may be hitting less, but that means he's hitting more for power

 

He is hitting less, and that does not mean he is hitting for more power.

 

and his OBP is back up to .320

 

I don't think a .320 is a decent/rewardable OBP.

 

in my opinion Mike Cameron is a solid B

 

Sure, it's a reasonable position.

 

Striking out more doesn't really bother me, but apparently it bothers you.

 

To some degree it does. Players striking out more and hitting less is a big problem.

 

Strikeouts do stick into people's memories more than a simple flyout does, but unless it advances a runner, you didn't really lose anything

 

I'd agree if a player has a similar BA/OBP -- where your argument fails, is that we are losing hits with the higher K rate, not flyouts. If you have a player with a .300 BA and 100Ks in 2007 and a player with a .300 BA and 150Ks in 2008, I would not be too upset. You are erroneously assuming that the results are predetermined -- I am more concerned when a player has a .300 BA and 100Ks in 2007, and a .280 BA and 150Ks in 2008.

 

I would be curious to see how Mike Cameron's Runs Created per 27 outs this year compares to his career average, but I'm not sure where to check that.

 

Again, I'm not interested in his career, but his RC/27 has dropped from the last 3 years.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I am not interested really in his career average -- if you look at his last three years, his production in 2008 is below those numbers.

Mike Cameron's Park Adjusted OPS+ in the last 4 years according to baseball-reference.com:

 

2008: 108

2007: 103

2006: 121

2005: 114

 

Note that the 2007 OPS is park adjusted so it does take Petco Park into effect. His average OPS+ from 2005-07 was 112.6. His OPS+ this year is 108. Does 4 points below really warrant a disappointment? You have to expect some sort of decline by age 35 in your expectations.

[TheCrew07]

let it go already

[Tbadder]

Braun D for effort, F for hitting his head against the wall, tragically mindless approach at the plate has turned him into a .275 hitter (my prediction for end of the year average) when his talent says .310, lousy OBP, instead of elite he's merely good, I just shake my head

 

Fielder B for effort, C for lack of improvement in the field, slovenly ways, I can't believe this guy eats in between outs on the field, he's pig and he's gonna eat himself outta the league, has trouble bending, can't hit the low ball because of it, but the guy has a brain and a heart at the plate late in the game, tries to hang in there and get his pitch unlike Braun who can't wait to get back to the bench

Do you have something personally against Braun, that he is a D for effort and an F for other things yet Fielder gets a B and a C. Braun has a better OPS, is not near the butcher in the field and while Fielder does work more, just over double the times, Braun has more home runs, RBI's, strikeout per at bat are similar and Braun has been much better with RISP. This is where walks are valued too much. Yes Braun would be a lot better if he walked more but to give him an F just does not make sense. While Prince is two full letter grades ahead of him in both rankings yet doing worse at the plate and in the field.

 

 

I'd give Braun a B for execution, nice transition to the outfield, good power--but the F I gave him is for wasting his talent (although I realize that wasn't made explicit). Braun has a chance to be an Albert P. type hitter, a once or twice in a generation player, but his plate discipline is bad, and it's getting so obvious that it's almost laughable. Get two strikes and throw the ball into another zipcode and he's gonna swing. When is he gonna learn? When is he gonna be professional enough, intelligent enough, when is he gonna care enough to lay off of that pitch consistently and then start punishing pitchers who have to come back to his zone? Does he watch tape? I'm serious, he should embarrassed at times. I know that all good hitters are going to look bad on two strike pitches out of the zone and in the dirt sometimes, but to do it so consistently is a tragedy to me. Now if he doesn't have the physical ability, or the mental acuity to be a better player, then I'm just wrong and so be it. My expectations were that he would have a ..300 to 310/.375 to .400 line, but he's not giving himself a chance. He's wasting his talent and hurting his team in the sense that he is not fulfilling anywhere near his potential.

[rluzinski]

Cam's OBP is a little lower than his projection but his SLG is higher. He's been as valuable offensively as his projections said he would be, just in a little different way. He's certainly doing better than last year. Hard for me to be disappointed in that.

[Fatter than Joey]

Does 4 points below really warrant a disappointment?

 

Sure, insofar as subjective grades are concerned.

 

You have to expect some sort of decline by age 35 in your expectations.

 

That seems arbitrary. A decline from 27 to 35 perhaps, but not from 34 to 35.

 

Cam's OBP is a little lower than his projection

 

Yep. Again, no one is saying he sucks.

[rluzinski]

That seems arbitrary. A decline from 27 to 35 perhaps, but not from 34 to 35.

 

You should expect a marginal decline in true talent every year after around 29-30. It's just not going to show itself so perfectly over a 600 AB season.

 

Cam's OBP is a little lower than his projection

 

Yep. Again, no one is saying he sucks.

 

It's kind of odd that you didn't copy the part that says that his higher than expected SLG makes up for that. No big deal that you aren't satisfied with his offensive numbers but they aren't worse than his projection predicted.