High Pitch Counts for Brewers pitchers

[fondybrewfan]

I am just curious what everyone thinks on this subject. CC threw 122 pitches yesterday. Does anyone else consider that a lot, or considering Sabathia's clean health history do you feel that he could do this every start. If 122 could be considered "normal" for CC how many pitches could he throw before he actually tires? He looked pretty good in the 9th yesterday. COuld he throw 130-135 pitches with no ill effects?

And on the same topic, Sheets has had multiple 100+ pitch games this year. Are we at the point that we think Sheets can pitch 110 every night and not get hurt? I know his arm has always been healthy so I think he is certainly capable of going 100+ every game.

Or are the Brewers just going to run these 2 guys into the ground to try to make the playoffs at all costs?

[stoutdude04]

I think they are more then willing to burn both of their arms. If they do, I would think its because they are not planning on resigning either in the off season. IF they dont plan on resigning either, I dont have a problem with both of them being a horse for the rest of the year.

[splitterpfj]

A start with 122 pitches at this point in the season is not a big deal to me. I don't think that should happen every time out, but you can ask a guy to do that at times - CC is not a guy who's had a lot of arm issues in the past - I'd be much more concerned if they started doing that with Parra.

[Glennron]

I'd still rather they not throw 100+ pitches consistently. Every once in a while 120 pitches is fine half-way through the season, but I hope it doesn't happen too often. Sure Sabathia is a workhorse and pitched 240 innings last year, but he also pitched pretty awfully in the playoffs. There's probably no way of proving that is was/nt a result of him logging a ton of innings in the regular season but who knows. I understand the want to have them throw so much with the shakiness of the bullpen, but hopefully the Brewers pick up someone as their "8th inning guy" so if Sabathia/Sheets "only" go 6 innings we don't have to hold our breath the last three innings of the game.

[Oldcity]

It's definitely something to keep an eye on. As of right now, Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia are #1 and 2 in all of baseball in pitcher abuse points. Now that may be a bit misleading in the case of Sheets, because many of his starts came with an extra day's rest, but if I'm the Brewers I'm dialing back those workloads, particularly for Sheets. If Ben gets injured before season's end, the whole trade will be a bust.

[MadScientist]

120 pitches over 9 innings is only 14 per inning. I don't think that is particularly hard on an arm. I can see a 100 pitch count early in the year, but it's warm now so let them go if they are not struggling. Sheets is a bit of a different case with his injury history, but who's going to take the ball out of his hands before 120 pitches if he is doing well?

[owbc]

I think we've just gotten used to having a rotation full of young and/or inconsistent arms that aren't capable of throwing past 100-110 pitches.

 

Sheets and Sabathia are established starters. They have worked their way up from the days of being held at low pitch counts. I have no problem with either of them going 110-120 every start.

 

Pitch counts are such an arbitrary number anyway. If a guy labors through a 25-30 pitch inning but only throws 100 pitches, that could potentially be worse on the arm than throwing a consistent 120 pitches without a big inning. I do think 120 should be the max though and should not be breached 2 starts in a row if possible--until September.

[RightFieldCoder]

As long as CC's arm stays attached until November, I don't care how many pitches he throws. Let the team that signs him deal with dead arm issues in a highly expensive pitcher (ask the Giants about that).

[Trombone482]

I have no problem with letting CC go 120+ pitches. You have 4 days off for the All-star break where I doubt he will do much throwing, and he IS a big strong dude. I just would not make it a regular thing

[dadofandrew]

The problem with the pitcher abuse points is it it always made up of guys who are successful, and are going 110 pitches per start. Neither Ben or CC have even thrown a really high pitch start...it's just a bunch of the category 3's and 4's. Only 8 of 18 Ben has gone over 111 pitches, and only twice over 122. They are on the list because they are good.

[TooLiveBrew]

Does anyone else consider that a lot, or considering Sabathia's clean health history do you feel that he could do this every start.

 

125-ish for Sabathia (as others have mentioned) in any given start is not concerning to me. Now, averaging 125 or so pitches each start would concern me. It's all relative -- if pitch #125 gets through inning #9, it's a heckuva lot different from #125 getting you your 2nd out in the 6th or 7th inning.

 

I agree that Sheets & Sabathia are different animals from the rest of our SP. They should be treated that way, but not allowed to throw high pitch-counts just for the sake of throwing a lot of pitches. If pushing one of them to 120 or so pitches gets the team through the 8th or 9th inning (without getting Ben or CC shelled), I'm all for it.

[Brew Guzzler]

If Ben gets injured before season's end, the whole trade will be a bust.

If Ben does get injured, then the trade was the most important thing we have done in the last twenty years (it might be anyway). The reason we got CC was so that we have two ace level pitchers. If sheets goes down at least we still have CC every five days. The trade wouldn't be a bust because our team's shot at the playoffs isn't done with an injury to sheets like ti did last year.

 

[Oldcity]

I see your point Brew Guzzler, but I guess it's how you choose to look at it. I see the trade as a move to try to win a world series. They got Sheets-Sabathia for not only a playoff push, but to match up well with any team in a playoff series. Lose one of Sheets/Sabathia and that edge is out the window.

[igor67]

I recall reading a commentary I believe at Baseball prospectus that with the advent of pitch counts, starting pitchers are under utilized because managers now treat everyone the same. The original scheme was targeted toward reducing the wear on young arms. Older guys could and should be ridden a little harder. This makes a fair amount of sense to me and I'm onboard with Both of them routinely getting into the 110+ range and occaisionally into 120+. Over 130 would still be worrisome. Remember back in the old days when Cal Eldred would start a career with half a dozen or more starts at 140 pitches or so.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If a pitcher strikes out 27 guys during the course of a game, he needs at least 3 pitches per hitter, or 81 total pitches. Averaging 4 pitches a hitters brings that total to 108. Unless it's a young, developing pitcher, the 100-pitch limit probably cuts outings too short for guys like Sheets and Sabathia - high strikeout guys, or guys with good enough stuff to miss bats even if they're trying to pitch to contact.

 

I think it's important that pitchers are given the opportunity to throw 120-125 pitches in a game, if it gets the team through 8-9 innings. I think the problem is when managers try to squeeze 6 innings out of a starter, and that ends up still putting that pitcher at around 120 pitches. I think the big-pitch innings cause more a negative effect than a relatively large # of pitches spread out over more innings.

[dvoiss]

I don't see any reason why we need to cut everyone off at 100 pitches. Doing so is a fairly recent development. One might argue that pitchers were more likely to gwet hurt 20 years ago when 120-135 pitch outings were not uncommon but its not like pitchers are staying off the DL with these limits. If CC or Ben are pitching well I'd rather have them go the extra inning then turn to the bullpen and have to watch the end of the game with my hands over my eyes.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't think throwing 120+ pitches is a problem for an established veteran like Sabathia. Especially since Carston came out and K'd all 3 guys showing no signs of fatigue. It's a bit more of a risk factor with Sheets, but it's all or nothing right now with those 2 guys because they are good as gone so I'm all for taking the risk of their arms being dead in 2009. If it affects 2008 then we gambled and lost, but in my opinion, it's a gamble worth taking.

[Oldcity]

The most durable of durable, Aaron Harang, is feeling the consequences of a ton of innings over the past three years. I was mainly cautious about Sheets because he hasn't thrown 200 innings in a few years and has obviously had issues staying healthy, so I'm worried about him for the remainder of this season. CC is a much smaller concern in the short term, but in the long-term, I'd be concerned signing him to a huge money deal with the innings he's gotten the last couple seasons.

[jflick1215]

Regarding the post about Eldred, my initial inclination was to agree, but if you check his baseball reference page, he wasn't that abused in '92, with the exception of one start. His pitch counts, dating back to his first 3 starts of his ML career in '91: 95, 73, 98, 106, 102, 100, 107, 118, etc. There was one crucial September start at Baltimore where he threw 143 pitches in a complete-game win, but other than that had no starts over 123 pitches, and three over 120.

 

1993 was a different story, however, as he worked 258 innings, and logged 120-plus pitches in 15 outings, and amazingly had outings of 144, 149, and 154(!) pitches in his first full season in the bigs. Wow. And we wonder where his arm problems came from...

[logan82]

Ignoring outside influences(pitcher's turn to bat in close game, ineffectiveness, etc.) I don't mind going up to around 120 pitches with CC, Sheets, Suppan, Bush, or McClung as long as they have an extra day of rest before or after their start. Otherwise I would prefer 110 pitches. Suppan (and Maybe Bush) are not "max effort" pitchers so I don't think the extra pitches will hurt them as much. Sheets and CC are work horses and used to the high pitch counts. The only one I would really worry about having high pitch counts is Parra.

[FVBrewerFan]

There is no all encompassing evidence to tell us how many pitches in a game or season is "too many." I had a long conversation with an Orthopedic Surgeon who has done quite a few sports related surgeries, and now specializes in sports related injuries. I know, take that for what it's worth. He told me most new studies, and his own personal experience, suggests many injuries are set in motion early on in a pitcher's career- and I mean real early. Little League, High School, etc. Improper mechanics, throwing too many curve balls (especially if thrown incorrectly), pitching when your arm is sore, etc.

 

All of that eventually catches up. The next most important factor, again in his opinion, is pitching with a tired or sore arm. You now make corrections you're not even aware of in your delivery and problems result. Finally, for lack of a better word, some guys really do have a "rubber" arm. Different people can handle different levels of work load.

 

With all that said, it makes sense to limit pitches of younger players. There's little evidence that limiting pitches in and of itself has much of an effect on preventing injuries, but it can't hurt. To answer the question, I think Sheets and Sabathia can routinely get up to 110-120 pitches as long as they're not laboring. How can you tell? Fast ball speed, knowing from experience (in the case of Sheets), problems locating pitches, etc. Above all else, pitchers need to eliminate the "macho" approach and be honest with themselves when they start to feel tired- or worse yet...sore.

[Fatter than Joey]

Assuming

 

1.) You don't want to hurt CC or Ben this year

2.) The Brewers are not going to sign either this off-season,

 

My philosophy dictates that we didn't trade Matt LaPorta so Mota and Gagne can pitch more innings the rest of 2008.

 

I'd abuse CC and Ben's arm to the point that they are still effective in Sep/Oct, yet we keep our BP clowns from heading out into more games.

[Oldcity]

Agreed, but how do you find that happy medium of "abused enough to keep bullpen scrubs out of the game but not enough to injure them?"

 

Plus I still think the Brewers might want to re-sign Sheets, so that's probably a factor too.

[twobrewers]

I agree with FTJ.

 

If they weren't free agents, I'd be worried.

But as it is, we need to use them while we have them.

[Fatter than Joey]

how do you find that happy medium of "abused enough to keep bullpen scrubs out of the game but not enough to injure them?"

 

Happy Medium = My Arm hurts - one pitch.