Lead off Kapler

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Yeah it baffles me how guys like Michael Bourn, Willy Tavarez, Dave Roberts, and Juan Pierre have made livings in the Major Leagues as leadoff guys despite being poor hitters. Craig Counsell would be that type of player with less speed, but better OBP. I do still like Weeks though and wish he could get a shot lower in the order, but we can't do that if we want to give Craig Counsell a shot in the #1 spot. If we could just find someone who could hit #5 as well as Hart does, then we could lead off Hart and that would give Weeks his shot lower in the order.

[bullox]

I think the state heads here greatly over-emphasize OPS and under-value OBP when it comes to the lead-off spot.

 

I think the emphasis is more on long-term results than on a handful of leadoff PAs this year. That's where the difference lies.

 

[cwolf2012]

Hart would not be and is not a good leadoff hitter. He fits perfectly in the 5 spot with his low OBP but high SLG.

 

High average with speed != good leadoff hitter.

 

Weeks is the closest thing we have to a leadoff hitter, with good OBP skills (having an OBP .100 higher than your BA is very good) and speed. The issue is that his approach seems to have changed a LOT since the minor leagues. He has all the talent in the world, the Brewers just have to find a way to get it out there.

 

EDIT: " I think the state heads here greatly over-emphasize OPS and under-value OBP when it comes to the lead-off spot."

 

I am pretty sure all the stat heads strongly agree that OBP is far more important than SLG, especially for a leadoff hitter. The big issue is that his OBP is still only .320, which is still below league average for the leadoff spot. The point of this is to try and find a spot for Weeks to hit where he is productive, and find another person to replace him at leadoff. Counsell would have to play 2B if he were playing every day and leading off, and then it would defeat the purpose of the experiment. Counsell is a spot-utility player. He doesn't have the capability to play every day.

 

If Kendall were batting .290, his OBP at that point would make him a great candidate to lead off. But that's never going to happen. He's not good enough to bat that well.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think the state heads here greatly over-emphasize OPS and under-value OBP when it comes to the lead-off spot.

 

I think the emphasis is more on long-term results than on a handful of leadoff PAs this year. That's where the difference lies.

 

 

Well Weeks has had hunderds of ABs to prove he can't do the job. Counsell has had more than a handful. Believe me, I hope there's a better choice than that, all I'm saying is Counsell is at least an average leaf-off hitter against Righties. Weeks is below average against anybody.

 

Hart? There's just no way Ned would or should move Hart. You don't fix one problem and creat another. Hart is very productive in the 5hole, no idea why you would want to change that.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well Weeks has had hunderds of ABs to prove he can't do the job. Counsell has had more than a handful. Believe me, I hope there's a better choice than that, all I'm saying is Counsell is at least an average leaf-off hitter against Righties. Weeks is below average against anybody.

 

Rickie Weeks career (1,440 AB): .242/.349/.401

 

Craig Counsell career (3,861 AB): .257/.343/.346

 

 

If there's one guy who should get more time, it's the younger & prime-aged player whose career line is already superior. Counsell should only lead off when the bases are loaded! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[silversurferr]

RLuzinski, I agree with you about Weeks taking pitches. I can't tell if he takes too many or if he takes the wrong ones. I would like to see him swing earlier in the count rather than waiter for the 2-2 or 3-2 slider, which he has not hit this year. And why does he hit so many pitches off the end of the bat? He has such a quick swing; should he be using a bigger bat? The consensus is that Kapler should not lead off, but what about Cameron? He whiffs alot, but if he took more pitches, he might hit more and walk more. He has the speed to lead off.

[rluzinski]

all I'm saying is Counsell is at least an average leaf-off hitter against Righties.

 

Counsell is a terrible hitter against anyone. You have to start narrowing your search to a very small sample to come to any other conclusion.

[FVBrewerFan]

all I'm saying is Counsell is at least an average leaf-off hitter against Righties.

 

Counsell is a terrible hitter against anyone. You have to start narrowing your search to a very small sample to come to any other conclusion.

That's exactly what is needed- a small sample. I'm not interested in who has been the better career hitter or who will be better long-term. All that matters right now is who is the best option(s) for the next couple months. Frankly, I'm not sure Counsell can keep getting on base for even that long. But right now, I think the "hot hand" theory is in play. That goes for starting pitching, definitely the bullpen, and 2B, 3B, and CF are in play as well. There's no time for players "work their way out of it" anymore.

[endaround]

Going with the "hot hand" is like playing a slots machine that has been paying out recently.

[FVBrewerFan]

It is playing the recent trend vs historical trends. NOT using the "hot hand" theory would mean Gagne would still be the closer, and Turnbow would still be the set-up man. Torres has never closed much, but that "hot hand" seems to be working just fine. McClung is Exhibit B. Branyan- Exhibit C. Now, some (or even all) of these guys may revert back to the norm (Branyan may already have.)

 

But this is now a short season. If that means Counsell can stay hot for a month, sobeit. Maybe Kapler gets more ABs, at lead-off or otherwise. If he keeps hitting over .300, you ride the wave. Other than Braun, Fielder, Hart you have to keep your options open. Same thing with the pitching staff.

[joepepsi]

When Brian Roberts was Rickie's age he hit .270/.337/.367 87 *OPS+

Rickie is currently hitting .217/.320/.367 81 *OPS+

 

Obviously his batting average needs improvement, but really, the difference isn't that great. And if you compare age by age Rickie was the better player each step. I'm not ready to give up on him yet. There isn't a better option at leadoff.

[endaround]

But this is now a short season. If that means Counsell can stay hot for a month, sobeit. Maybe Kapler gets more ABs, at lead-off or otherwise. If he keeps hitting over .300, you ride the wave. Other than Braun, Fielder, Hart you have to keep your options open. Same thing with the pitching staff.

But there is no more reason to expect Counsell to hit .300 for month than there is Weeks. You would think that Hardy's hot streak would have shown people this. Hardy was as hot as a baseball player could be and what did he do in the Cincy series?

 

[FVBrewerFan]

I disagree- at least when it comes to RHP. I think Counsell has a better chance to get on base vs RHP than Weeks- for the moment. Now, with that said, I do think Weeks will (and should) get another chance to play and lead-off against RHP. Maybe even right after the break. But at some point you have to try other options. If things don't change, TGJ may even get a shot at leading -off vs RHP.

[rluzinski]

When we are talking about positional players, the hot hand theory is almost a complete myth. If you think Councell should be expected to continue hitting well above his career norms in the short trem, I would love to take that bet.

[Patrick425]

Cameron has hit decently and played very good defense. He's doing exactly what he was expected to do.

I should know better than to debate a stat guru like you, but really?!? He's doing exactly what he was expected to do? Defensively maybe, but I'm not so sure about offensively.

Actually, he doing about exactly what I expected him to do. His power numbers have been good, but a .231 average and a .320 OBP are both below his both below his career average. I didn't like the signing of Cameron from the beginning. A 35 year old on the down side of his career coming off a year with a .241 avg and .328 OBP did not appeal to me. However, everyone kept arguing that his numbers were depressed by the Petco Park effect. His BA and OBP are worse this year than last year at Petco.

[joepepsi]

His power numbers have been good, but a .231 average and a .320 OBP are both below his both below his career average.

Cameron is 4 hits shy of his .250 career batting average. Those 4 extra hits would put his obp just undert his .340 career average. In fact given his power spike, those 4 extra hits would be enough for us to say Cameron is having a good year. 4 balls that don't fall for hits in 247 plate appearances is nothing but bad luck.

[FVBrewerFan]

I agree Cameron, more or less, is doing what is expected offensively. The problem was putting a player like that in the 2 hole. Admitedly, not a lot of options on this team for the #1 OR #2 hitter. Cameron at least gives you an average bat in the 7 hole.

 

Back to the "hot hand" theory, would you argue going to Branyan at the right time was a huge lift for this club? Now that he's cooled off and Hall has picked up the pace, we may see Hall start against some RHP. Kapler was hot in April, and Ned kept him in the line-up every day. We all know there are peaks and valleys that go into the overall numbers, so why wouldn't you take advantage of those peaks?

[ELCABALLO45]

I can't belive people are still defending Weeks.

 

Bat Counsell lead off he can't do any worse then what Weeks is doing right now.

[endaround]

I can't believe that after 12 years in the big leagues people want to keep handing hundred of PAs to Craig Counsell.

[ELCABALLO45]

I can't believe that after 12 years in the big leagues people want to keep handing hundred of PAs to Craig Counsell.

Better than Having Weeks striking out at everything.

 

And at least C.C. can play defense.

[TooLiveBrew]

Strikeout phobia confuses me. Pointing to Counsell's defense does not.

 

The funny part to me is that for all the struggles Weeks has had so far in 2008, he's still our best leadoff option. I can't wait until Rickie goes on a little hot streak... of course, I've been waiting for that since Opening Day, so maybe I *can* wait. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[logan82]

FVBrewerFan wrote:

Back to the "hot hand" theory, would you argue going to Branyan at the right time was a huge lift for this club? Now that he's cooled off and Hall has picked up the pace, we may see Hall start against some RHP.

Yes he was. Branyan is still expected to have better stats against RHP than Hall. There are roughly 1600+ PA for each that tell us this.

 

Kapler was hot in April, and Ned kept him in the line-up every day.

Cameron wasn't with the team yet in April and the choices were Kapler, Gross or Gwynn. Gross, in my opinion, would have been the best option against RHP.

 

We all know there are peaks and valleys that go into the overall numbers, so why wouldn't you take advantage of those peaks?

It would be nice to take advantage of those peaks, but being hot today is not an indicator that a player will be hot in the next game or for the next week.

 

Edit: The problem with playing the hot hand is that you have to play them at least a game to long(and probably more because the guy is hot and the 0 for was just a fluke) to determine that they are no longer hot.

[ELCABALLO45]

Strikeout phobia confuses me. Pointing to Counsell's defense does not.

 

The funny part to me is that for all the struggles Weeks has had so far in 2008, he's still our best leadoff option. I can't wait until Rickie goes on a little hot streak... of course, I've been waiting for that since Opening Day, so maybe I *can* wait. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

I hope he does get on a hot streak, but we have been waiting for that since opening day, I dont see it happening.

 

But if he does, trust me I will enjoy a nice serving of Crow.

[rluzinski]

He's doing exactly what he was expected to do? Defensively maybe, but I'm not so sure about offensively.

 

Preseason ZiPs projection: .254/.341/.447

 

Actual: .231/.320/.481

 

So, his OBP is 21 points lower than his projection but his SLG is .34 points higher. Roughly speaking, that's a wash. The key is not to get hung up on BA, as its value is already represented in both OBP and SLG (added to them both on a 1 to 1 basis).

[Ennder]

There is no real reason to think Weeks is going to get worse with experience since very few players do. He has a career line of .242/.349/.401/.750 so that is pretty much my expectations from here on out. That or slightly better since his general trend was positive until this year.

 

His defense has been a good bit better this year than last imo.

 

I really don't think Counsell would match that with fulltime play.