Lead off Kapler

[silversurferr]

Should Ned be thinking about leading off Kapler and moving Weeks to seventh in the order? This also means some pine-time for Cameron.

[stoutdude04]

Nope.

 

I should expand. I think having Kapler play everyday would be a mistake. He has done well with what we have wanted him to do. Putting him lead off would make him change his mindset and the way he plays. I would think anyways.

[splitterpfj]

I'm personally not in favor of "pine-time for Cameron", but my biggest issue with this would be changing the role in which Kapler has thrived. Gabe has done a fantastic job as the extra outfielder, which may be the best possible fit for his skills - leave that part alone.

 

I think the answer at leadoff hitter needs to come from outside the organization.

[M Skjellyfetti]

I don't think Ned should really be pondering starting Kapler, much less leading him off. If it turns out I'm wrong, so be it, but I've never seen a dude suck for a lot of his career, take a year off and suddenly become a good player at age 32. Also, Kapler is still hitting about .040 points above his expected average given his very high BABIP, and his slugging percentage is far above anything he's ever done in his career. I'd expect him to regress back toward his career stats.

 

As for Weeks, I expect his average to steadily climb because he is hitting for a very low BABIP right now. I'd conservatively guess Weeks would bat about .250-.260 from here forward, getting on base around a .360 clip and slugging around .400-.420. That would be a solid leadoff hitter, and probably our best choice to bat leadoff, IMHO.

[TheCrew07]

Call-up Taylor Green to lead off and play 2B so he can't be traded to Cleveland... or something.

[silversurferr]

You are right that Kapler should not start every day, but when Ned uses him, he has good patience, makes good contact, and has good speed. I must admit I am miffed at Cameron's miscues in CF. I did not expect him to make another blunder like the one in Arizona, but he made two more awful errors this week.

[BrewCrewForever]

Only if they don't trade for Brian Roberts which I hope Doug and Gord look very hard at doing during the All-Star break. If no deal for Roberts, then yeah it might be an idea.

[lcbj68c]

I agree in moving Weeks out of the lineup completely and out of the organization. While it's a nice sentiment that he can play well for 1/2 a season, it's just that, a tease to keep Melvin and company in believing in that potential, potential, potential word for 5+ seasons.

[RU Rah Rah]

It's been mentioned elsewhere, but Cameron has an OPS of 1+ over the past month (or thereabouts). I don't think he's really the issue.

 

I'm all for not having the albatross of Rickie Weeks hanging around the neck of the leadoff spot, though.

[DuWayne Steurer]

While Cam has misplayed a couple balls the last week or so, he's a superior defender to Kapler over the long haul. Kapler is probably playing well because he's been put in situations that are advantageous to his performance. If he played every day, I'd certainly expect him to regress closer to his career norms.

 

Now Cam's batting average (the worst offensive evaluator you can use just about) looks pretty ugly right now, but if you tack on a whopping 4 more hits over the course of what he's done so far, that BA is .250. Despite his .230-ish average, his OPS is over .800, and he takes a load more walks than Kapler.

 

I think the playing time Kapler is getting right now is just about right. I'm not saying don't play him, but I don't want to see him playing every day either.

[rluzinski]

Cameron has hit decently and played very good defense. He's doing exactly what he was expected to do. Kapler has had a great 149 AB but expected him to continue hitting as well as he has is settign yourself up for disappointment.

 

As for Weeks, I have no problem with him being moved to 7th in the lineup. I think he takes TOO many pitches (good and bad) trying to be a prototypical leadoff guy.

[Bucky Rules]

Weeks is the only guy on the team - with the exception of Prince - that has shown the ability to get on base at a .370 clip. He's the best chance we have for a legit leadoff hitter. I'd wait it out a bit longer. He had a pretty good week. Who knows... maybe this is where it'll turn around.

[logan82]

If Kapler was a regular starter, which he isn't, I wouldn't have a problem with moving him up to leadoff and dropping Weeks in the batting order.

[Bucky Rules]

I think he takes TOO many pitches (good and bad) trying to be a prototypical leadoff guy.

Is there evidence of that? Did he take fewer pitches early in his MLB career and his minor league career when he wasn't leading off? (serious question)

[logan82]

Bucky Rules wrote:

Is there evidence of that? Did he take fewer pitches early in his MLB career and his minor league career when he wasn't leading off? (serious question)

He is .01 pitches per PA above his career average this year.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

As for Weeks, I have no problem with him being moved to 7th in the lineup. I think he takes TOO many pitches (good and bad) trying to be a prototypical leadoff guy.

I agree that this would benefit Weeks, but who is going to lead off then? If you say Corey Hart, then who's going to protect Prince? I love Hart in the 5th spot.

[rluzinski]

Is there evidence of that? Did he take fewer pitches early in his MLB career and his minor league career when he wasn't leading off? (serious question)

 

I'm basing my opinion that he doesn't swing at enough pitches based on this:

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=12588

 

I said this about Weeks:

 

"His O-Swing% looks really pretty, until you realize it's a result of "fake plate discipline". It's not that he's been better at identifying pitches than the average batter, he's simply not swinging at pitches very often overall. Worse still, while he's swung 5.1% less often at a ball out of the zone, he's swung at a ball in the zone 11.1% less often! "

 

Now, that was early April, so let's see if I should have known better and looked at his updated stats first:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2008&month=0

 

Since late May, he's been swinging at more pitches overall (37.6% to 40.5%) but that's still much lower than the 2007 MLb average of 45.9% average. Most of those extra swings have come against balls in the zone, though, so that's a step in the right direction. He's still swinging at a much lower percentage of them than the league average, though.

 

Now, do I know if that's a result of him leading off? Naaa. Just speculating.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

As sad as this sounds, Weeks is still our best option to lead off right now based on the fact that he can only improve with that horrid BABIP.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I don't think Kapler should start, but I wish he could teach Hall how to take an easier swing, especially with 2 stirkes. That AB he had today to tie the game was a thing of beauty. Not trying to kill the ball or hit it out of the ball park, just trying to put the bat on the ball. Why can't everybody do that? Seems like we have a lot of guys that try to hit a homerun no matter what the count is.

 

That is good stuff Rluz. I always thought Rickie takes a lot of pitches, but still has horrible pitch recognition. My theory was he can't handle the outside breaking stuff, but pitchers have a harder time getting that over for a strike. So that leads to a lot of multi-pitch at bats, where Rickie doesn't swing at the outside pitches until he gets a couple of strikes, but it usually takes the pitchers 4 shots to get two strikes on the outside corner. So then you are at 2-2 before the at bat really begins.

[Fatter than Joey]

As sad as this sounds, Weeks is still our best option to lead off right now based on the fact that he can only improve with that horrid BABIP.

 

Gambler's Fallacy alert

[FVBrewerFan]

Laugh if you must, but Counsell has been doing very well leading off against RH pitchers. I don't know how to find stats that separate out his overall numbers vs lead-off numbers, but I would bet his OBP is very respectful.

[endaround]

Well yes it is, its .477. But so what? His career it's .349 when combined with his terrible power isn't worth it. Why do we want to give the most ABs possible to the Brewers worst hitter?

[cwolf2012]

"I expect [Rickie's] average to steadily climb because he is hitting for a very low BABIP right now."

 

His BABIP is at .254, which by his current statline is only about .06 below expected. His Line Drive % is down to 14%, and the generalized formula for expected BABIP is .12 plus LD%, which is about .260.

 

If Rickie gets back to his career average LD%, we can expect him to improve his BA significantly. If he can't, then he won't get much better.

 

The major problem with the Brewers hitting is the lack of a true leadoff hitter. Rickie has raw power, and fits much better deeper in the lineup. The guy who most closely resembles a leadoff hitter is Kendall, and he's just not good enough to be leading off.

 

I guess we could use JJ instead, but really, that just creates a hole at #2 which we can't really fill either.

[bullox]

Why do we want to give the most ABs possible to the Brewers worst hitter?

Who do we want to give the ABs to? That seems to be the main question here.

 

[FVBrewerFan]

Well yes it is, its .477. But so what? His career it's .349 when combined with his terrible power isn't worth it. Why do we want to give the most ABs possible to the Brewers worst hitter?

Worst hitter? Not in the lead-off spot. I think the state heads here greatly over-emphasize OPS and under-value OBP when it comes to the lead-off spot. Before anyone brings it up, I understand and don't care how many times a game the lead-off hitter actually leads off an inning. That's missing the point. The idea is to have the lead-off man on base as ogten as possible when Braun, Fielder, and Hart are up. I rather have someone get on base consistently with those guys at the plate than a guy who can hit some HRs here and there.