Left handed bat off the bench

[silversurferr]

With Branyan returning to his no-contact form, the lack of a lefty off the bench is becoming a big weakness. Time to make a move. I would like to see the Brewers get rid of Dillon or Mota and bring up Brad Nelson. Maybe he can provide the little bit of pop that Counsell and Gwynn cannot give us. Dillon doesn't add anything; he isn't hitting and he is limited in the field (for the doubters; if he was a good fielder, you'd see him as a defensive replacement late in games). The way I look at it, Counsell and Hall are adequate backups second (and third). If they DFA Mota or Gagne, they could also promote a young arm like Pena. These moves make more sense than giving up a prospect for some other teams version of Branyan.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think Branyan will get hot again so I wouldn't want to trade for a lefy bat, but I do want to see Nelson up here as well as Pena.

[silversurferr]

Branyon had his month of glory; he ain't getting hot again. The rest of his career indicates that the hot streak was a fluke. Yes, he will hit a few home runs, but he strikes out in half his plate appearances (Half!) and his range in the field is limited. I think Billy is the better bet down the stretch. He is starting to hit, and the more he plays, the better he will be in the field. How many games has he played there? Probably less than half a season total.

[logan82]

silversurferr wrote:

he strikes out in half his plate appearances (Half!)

Most players make outs in 60% of their plate appearances. All outs are basically the same. An out is an out. He still has better career splits against RHP than Hall. Like I said earlier this year, Hall i still below average at defense.

 

 

Besides for his career 6% of the time he hits home runs all the time.

[istanbultaye]

No, Hall has started more than half of the teams games (though a couple have been at other IF positions). He was the FT starter at 3rd well into May (Didn't Branyan come up May 23rd or so?). So that's about half the games right there. Then playing against lefties and occasional starts at 2b when Rickie was down gets him to probably about 70% of the games. (Just checked to be certain, Hall has started 62 games out of 94 for a total of ~66%)

[BrewCrewForever]

silversurferr wrote:

he strikes out in half his plate appearances (Half!)

Yeah, it's better then hitting into double plays. And you can't deny his HR rate and OBP. As for defense, I think he is at least as good as Hall if not better.

[silversurferr]

Half a season; 81 games. What I was getting at is that he is new to the position and has the skills to improve. Branyon will not improve in the field or at the plate. Brnayon is a good power lefty off the bench. Not all outs are the same. For example, you can move a runner by hitting behind the runner or flying out deep to right. I would rather see Branyon do that than K, but he ain't gonna.

[logan82]

Hall is playing the same kind of infield defense he has for his whole career. He makes some spectacular plays, but messes up easy ones. He is not a good fundamental player. Hall is just a good athlete playing baseball, not a baseball player who is a good athlete. Like I said before the season, we went from historically bad defense to bad defense.

[silversurferr]

I haven't seen Bill boot any routine plays recently. He had a stretch early on that fans will not let go. In contrast, late in the game last night Branyon made a feeble matador attempt on a hard hit ball that he should have at least knocked down. Play went for a double and later a run.

[BillScottCanRake]

Just a quick note. It's Branyan (with an a), not Branyon.

 

Melvin and Co have been talking about adding a LF bat and reliever for several weeks. There is no doubt those are weaknesses that need to be addressed. Identifying a need and filling it smartly are two different things, tho.

[logan82]

I haven't seen Bill boot any routine plays recently. He had a stretch early on that fans will not let go. In contrast, late in the game last night Branyon made a feeble matador attempt on a hard hit ball that he should have at least knocked down. Play went for a double and later a run.

If I can just pick and choose which plays to pay attention to and which to ignore then we have a gold glover at 1B and 2B as well.

 

[ozzybourne]

surfer--some guys just have manlove for branyan, and have a hard time being objective about the 3b situation. hall has more upside, pretty obvious. branyan is a below average role player. he's played for 6 (including 2x for bbrewers) teams over 9 years and has never had more than 380 ab's. he's only had over 300 ab's twice and over 200 ab's in 4 years. maybe the other mlb teams he has played for saw something to limit his play or release him.

 

i'd rather have troy glaus than either hall or branyan.

[logan82]

surfer--some guys just have manlove for branyan, and have a hard time being objective about the 3b situation. hall has more upside, pretty obvious. branyan is a below average role player. he's played for 6 (including 2x for bbrewers) teams over 9 years and has never had more than 380 ab's. he's only had over 300 ab's twice and over 200 ab's in 4 years. maybe the other mlb teams he has played for saw something to limit his play or release him.

 

i'd rather have troy glaus than either hall or branyan.

We can go around all day about who is better on defense. You have your opinion, I have mine. We do have enough PA to look at splits and determine that Branyan is a better choice against RHP and Hall is better against LHP. That isn't man love, that's objective.

 

[kramnoj]

surfer--some guys just have manlove for branyan, and have a hard time being objective about the 3b situation.

 

What areas would you to like to be ojective about? Branyan leads the Brewers in OPS+ this season. He is currently in a minislump, but he should get back to providing league average or better production again.

 

hall has more upside, pretty obvious.

 

This season is no longer about upside. Branyan should be expected to hit RH better this season, and their overall defense seems to be about the same.

 

he's played for 6 (including 2x for bbrewers) teams over 9 years and has never had more than 380 ab's.

 

As a LH batter, he shouldn't be expected to face LHP, so it makes sense that he maxes out around 2/3 of a season.

 

branyan is a below average role player.

 

You can't support this. Branyan is a role player but he has generally been average or above in that role.

 

maybe the other mlb teams he has played for saw something to limit his play or release him.

 

I would never let the mistakes of other teams affect the way that I view a player.

 

i'd rather have troy glaus than either hall or branyan.

 

Not sure where this came from. This doesn't seem like an option right now, so not really relevant. Given salary and performance, I woud take Glaus over Hall, but I wouldn't take Glaus over Branyan.

 

Edit: To address the point of the thread: I think it's too early to know what the Brewers will do here. Obviously they have stated an interest. There are currently two FA LH players available. That they aren't with the team probably indicates the level of interest in them that the Brewers have, or vice versa. There may be a veteran LH bat that Melvin will go for, but he will probably wait till the end of the month to let more teams really fall out of contention and go into sell mode.

[silversurferr]

The ninth inning today is an excellent example of why Hall is a better offensive player than BranyAn in all aspects except raw power. Not all outs are the same, putting the ball in play matters, and a home run is a home run, no matter how far you hit it.

[KCBrewerfan34]

FYI Hall made a HUGE error in this series with Cincy in like the 8th or 9th inning, however Branyan made an error in the Rockies series which was the difference in a 4-3 game.

 

BTW can anyone tell me how Braun is grading out defensively this year, I know he has no errors but that doesn't always tell the whole story, I didn't want to start a new thread.

 

 

Thanks

 

BIG win today!!! Brew will have their hands full with Cain and Lincecum

[DuWayne Steurer]

I would wager that the main reason Branyan has a hard time finding regular work in MLB is because there's still too many GM's out there that think Batting Average and strikeout rates are the most important factors in determining a player's offensive worth.

[kramnoj]

The ninth inning today is an excellent example of why Hall is a better offensive player than BranyAn in all aspects except raw power.

 

This isn't true. Branyan's career OBP is better than Hall's and is also better compared to league average.

 

BTW can anyone tell me how Braun is grading out defensively this year, I know he has no errors but that doesn't always tell the whole story, I didn't want to start a new thread.

 

Zone Rating has Braun as the 6th best LF this season.

[nate82]

FYI Hall made a HUGE error in this series with Cincy in like the 8th

That throw should have been picked up by Fielder. The throw wasn't that bad and it is a play that an average first baseman makes most of the time.

[lukevan]

The ninth inning today is an excellent example of why Hall is a better offensive player than BranyAn in all aspects except raw power. Not all outs are the same, putting the ball in play matters, and a home run is a home run, no matter how far you hit it.

 

So, because Hall got a base hit in the 9th today, he's a better offensive player? Branyan over the long haul will be better v. RHP. That ain't man love.

 

And saying Branyan strikes out too much and that Hall doesn't is strange. Hall is a huge K guy too and his BA, OBP, SLG are all worse than Branyan's this season, plus Branyan has superior career numbers.

[silversurferr]

Nate is correct. I saw the play you are talking about: Hall made a tough pickup and had a long throw that one hopped Prince. Prince should have made the play. Very tough error for Hall. I'm sure the stats will say otherwise, but it seems to me that Hall gets to more balls than Branyan. Bottom line is that Hall can help us win by starting at third and Branyan can help us win by pinch hitting. We still need another lefty bat.

[TheCrew07]

I dislike Branyan as much as anyone, and I have a hard time believing I have to defend him in a thread on Brewerfan...

 

That being said.

 

What I was getting at is that he is new to the position and has the skills to improve.

 

Hall is not a superior player defensively, nor is Bill new to playing 3B, he's played it in the past. He's doing as logan said, he's doing exactly what he's done his whole career. Make the fantastic play and boot the easy one. Yes Fielder could made the play on the short hop, but that really has nothing to do with the fact that Billy doesn't have an accurate arm, if you want an accurate arm, watch Hardy, the ball hits Prince in the chest 9 times out of 10.

 

The ninth inning today is an excellent example of why Hall is a better offensive player than BranyAn in all aspects except raw power

 

Taking one AB from a game from a player on a hot streak (aided greatly by facing many LHP in the last 10 days) and claiming it to definitive proof of as why any player is better than another is flawed logic at best. Add in that Hall plays his best against Cincy for whatever cosmic reason... I don't feel using anything Hall does in a Cincy series as a representation of true talent is sound logic. This is the same guy that 2 weeks ago was waving at 3 pitches out of the zone and was batting .206.

 

Is Branyan going to hit a HR every 6 PAs like earlier in the season? Aboslutely not, but he's still a very solid option off the bench. He provides power, OBP skills, and similar defense at 3B, and fills a nice niche on this year's team.

 

The best thing for the Brewers is that Hall continues to hit until the end of the season and increases his trade value. I figured he'd be the first guy to go, but right now he doesn't have much value.

[Bernman23]

Russell Branyan is not a very good defender. A great case in point was a sequence early in the Reds' series. One of the hitters saw that Branyan was playing incredibly deep because he doesn't have good range. He capitalizes by laying down a bunt to start the inning and Russell's slow-footed butt gets nowhere throwing the runner out on 1st. That gimme runner came around to score. Not an error....but nevertheless Russell's defense cost us a run. Fast forward to later in the game, Russell charges a bunt laid down barely in front of the plate, while vacating his position at 3rd base, where the runner could have been thrown out if he showed more awareness. Yet another runner who came around to score because of Russell's defense.

 

Offensively, he fails to adapt his approach to a given situation, making him an extremely incomplete hitter. Nobody on and nobody out, your primary approach should be to get on base because statistical probability is you'll come around to score. Branyan's overall walk percentage from '05-'07 was 14.3 percent. Ironically, with nobody on/out his walk percentage plummeted to 6 percent. Hey, shouldn't you be trying to get on base, dude? Another situation hitting stat where he failed to make an adjustment was with runners on 3rd and less than 2 outs. The primary objective should be to make quality contact, hopefully ensuring the run will score with an out or a base hit would be a bonus. The least desired outcome would be a strikeout. Overall, his strikeout percentage per PA from 05-07 was 33.7 percent. Ironically, his strikeout percentage jumps to 45 percent. Shouldn't you be trying to make MORE contact, dude?

 

And Russell is a perfect example of a player who OPS overrates. OPS doesn't factor in the effect of a single having the ability of moving a runner two bases and often drive in a run. Walks obviously can't accomplish the same, often not moving the runner anywhere, at most 1 base, rarely scoring a run. And a player will be statistically credited for a walk to set up a double play, I find it hard to give credit to the recipient. A gross disproportion of Branyan's walks from 05-07 were of the intentional or pseudo intentional variety when a team is being overly careful because they aren't worried about adding a baserunner and are going to extra measures to avoid a run. Singles are inherently more valuable than walks. Of course "3TO" is notorious for doing little (in relation to his colleagues) outside striking out, walking, and hitting a home run. Of course Russell's all or nothing style leads to erratic offense. A player littered with Branyans is bound to have 10 runs one game and 0 the next. Another player who hypothetically produces 5 EACH game, would result in the same average runs per game total, but a higher win expectancy because you'd have a reasonable chance to win every game. Consistency breeds more success.

 

Then there's Russell Branyan on the base pads, where he possesses below average speed. He compares to Prince Fielder in that area. Pretty much a 2-3 stolen base (projected) per year guy (back end of double steal and near fielder's indifference) and around 1 triple per year (projected). So he's not going to take the extra bag. I'm fine with that. But when guys are really a detriment on the base pads are when they can't score from 2nd on a single, from 3rd on a would be sac fly. Those are costing you runs that statistics do not measure. Russell does that on occasion as well because of his aforementioned lack of speed.

 

He's a guy who needs to carry practically a .900 OPS (at a position where players are usually pretty good offensively) to compensate for all of his immense deficiencies which have caused him to bounce around the majors for years.

[silversurferr]

Bernman, Exactly! And Mr. Thecrew07, it ain't flawed logic. Hall is a more complete ballplayer; better hitter, better baserunner, better fielder. And when was all this time he has played at third? Must have been in the minors? I remember him filling in at third for stretches in the past, but I'd be surprised if he has more than 162 games at third. As for Branyan, he's played his whole career there and is maybe an average fielder. You guys are too hard on Hall and Weeks; they have the potential to continue to improve in the field. I'm not saying they will be GG's, but they can be very solid. And those that complain about Hardy's fielding are nuts! The guy is a very good fielding SS. Prince is the only one that really concerns me in the field; he's gotta improve his fielding of throws.

[lcbj68c]

silversurferr wrote:. Hall and Weeks; they have the potential to continue to improve in the field.

 

Insert picture of guy beating dead horse here.