Annual Pre-Break Stumble

[crewcrazy]

This isn't really much of a vent, so I created a new topic for it. It seems like every year, the Brewers manage to stumble -- if not completely collapse -- heading into the All-Star break. I was curious to find out whether it's just been a case of my memory being short or if the Brewers have always had trouble playing well going into the break under Yost. Using Baseball Reference, I looked up how the Brewers fared in the last 10 games before the break every year in the Yost Era (the 10 game mark is fairly arbitrary, but I figured it was a good one because it's roughly the last 3 series before the break, and the Brewers will be ending a 10-game homestand tomorrow). I don't know if we can actually draw any conclusions from the results, but here they are:

 

2008: 6-4 with a win on Sunday, 5-5 with a loss

2007: 3-7

2006: 4-6

2005: 6-4

2004: 4-6

2003: 3-7

 

While this past week has certainly been tough to handle, it's not as bad as it's been in recent years. I figured it'd be a nice topic for discussion, since I can't be the only one that's been frustrated with this team constantly tripping over itself heading into the break.

[sbrylski]

So, from 2003 to 2008 they are 26-34, a .433 winning percentage.

 

Overall during those years, they are 425-478, a .470 winning percentage.

 

Eh, its probably nothing.

[Yeti73]

It really is frustrating. The worst part this week was the loss to Rusch and Fogg. Those (and the blow up on getaway day in Zona) were really tough to swallow.

 

Some of those years have had stumbles out of the gate after the break too. Hopefully we can get a win tomorrow (I predict 7 homers off Homer), and carry that forward. Pretty sure that Brewers have never had a reigning Cy Young Award winner start back to back games.

[olsonnet]

The "stumble" this week has just been the same of what they've done all year - lack of consistent, timely hitting and poor bullpen pitching. 11 runs Thursday and then 1 hit in the first 6 or so innings Friday against a guy who they shouldn't have had trouble with.

[pitchleague]

I won't be looking it up tonight as I'm going to watch a movie with the wife, but my guess is that our stumbles the past few years have been post-all star break. Specifically, the 2nd half of July up to the deadline (although the entire month of August seems to ring a bell re: suckitude)

[dadofandrew]

What Sam said. It's called mathematics.

[Yeti73]

Let's just hope our August this year is better than last year.

[JoeHova]

I'm more worried about the post-all star break swoon, so far (not including this year) in Ned's career, he has won 48.8% of his first half games, compared to 43.1% of his 2nd half games.

 

That may or may not say something significant about Ned's tendencies, but it seems like a pretty big difference. Let's hope the 2nd half doesn't go true to form this year.

[Brewcrewin07]

The month of July, specifically the last part of July will tell the story for this team. 4 @ STL, followed by 4 at home vs. The Cubs. Yes, that truly is, make or break.

[crewcrazy]

Eh, its probably nothing.

Yeah, that's what I think, too -- I just thought it was interesting. I'm not about to predict impending doom or anything like that. There's a lot more factors that come into play, too -- the bad pre-break stretches in Ned's early years were due to the team just being bad overall. Last year, it was the result of the Ramirez walkoff HR in Chicago, Hall getting hurt in Pittsburgh, and Capuano and Suppan imploding in Washington. This year, no one's hitting.

 

[rluzinski]

That may or may not say something significant about Ned's tendencies

 

Look up grass/turf, night/day, roof open/roof closed, even/odd months. Perhaps those will say something about Ned's tendencies as well.

 

Sorry to get snarky but must we attribute every curious team split to some deficiency of the manager? We don't even know HOW a manager could have such an effect, much less whether Yost DID have an effect.

The "stumble" this week has just been the same of what they've done all year - lack of consistent, timely hitting and poor bullpen pitching.

 

I'm starting to think that to a fan, consistent team hitting means getting 6+ runs every game and batting .500 w/runners in scoring position. It's a pipe dream. And while the bullpen has been pretty bad over the last week, much of those bad performances came when the game was looking pretty bad to begin with. Only in Friday's game did the bullpen have a large effect on the chances of winning.

[JoeHova]

That may or may not say something significant about Ned's tendencies

 

Look up grass/turf, night/day, roof open/roof closed, even/odd months. Perhaps those will say something about Ned's tendencies as well.

 

Sorry to get snarky but must we attribute every curious team split to some deficiency of the manager? We don't even know HOW a manager could have such an effect, much less whether Yost DID have an effect.

 

 

umm, 2nd half vs. first half would seem to be a pretty obvious explanation- i.e. running players into the ground in the first half and having them perform worse in the 2nd because they are gassed.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Well since we ended up 6-4 going into the All-Star break, I wouldn't exactly consider that a "stumble". Could have been better though. I think Friday's game was the one we really should have had if Cameron catches that ball.

[rluzinski]

umm, 2nd half vs. first half would seem to be a pretty obvious explanation- i.e. running players into the ground in the first half and having them perform worse in the 2nd because they are gassed.

 

What players? The starting pitching, bullpen?

[GenoSeligPrieb]

I can't say that the players are gassed in the second half. But I will attribute the Yost-managed collapses...plural...over the past few years, to the pollyanna attitude he expresses, publicly at least.

 

Bad execution, poor pitching decisions, are never a problem, because "we're still in first place....it's still early...and we're still in the hunt." If Guillermo Mota pitches badly again and again and again, his workload is not even shortened; "we can fix him."

 

The lack of urgency and/or killer instinct comes from the top down. Only Ryan Braun had the chutzpah to question all this whistling in the graveyard. Besides Ryan, the other guys you'd figure to be team leaders don't seem to be ready to stick around longer-term (Fielder, Sheets, Hart, Sabathia?). Other prominent Brewers are older ones on short-term deals like Cameron, Kendall and Torres. That leaves the burden of leadership on players like Braunie, JJ, Weeks and Hall. And while JJ seems comparatively quiet (but what do I know?), while the other 2 are in and out of the lineup.

 

Ned's coddling after losses sure as hell isn't helping though...

[Oldcity]

Of course the coddling is only seen publicly. Who knows what Ned actually thinks/says to his players... Same with the other players besides Braun.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

Oh, I agree, Stevo.

 

We're not privy to the extact words exchanged in the locker room. And like the whole "Public Jim Powell may not be equal to the Private Jim Powell" conundrum, it may very well be true that there's a Private Ned vs. a Public Ned for all we know. So I'll spot you that one.

 

But I find it hard to believe that Public Ned, with all his consistent, unwavering rhetoric about "We're still in first place...We can fix Mota...You've got to tip your cap to (insert hack pitcher with ERA over 6.00 here) tonight" taken against his consistent actions and decisions (sticking with bad relievers, his affinity for Counsell, his stubbornness in leading off Weeks) and Private Ned...are much different guys.

 

The day Ned calls out an overpaid or overhyped player who's costing us games will be the first time. Gagne, Weeks, Cameron, Mota...no problem. And when there appears to be very little accountability, or dire consequences for your poor play, as a human being (especially pampered millionaire athletes with guaranteed contracts), you kind of unclench your fists a bit, and relax....just a little.