What do we see for Brad Nelson?

[And That]

EDIT: I never noticed it before, but compare Nelson's AAA numbers to Laynce Nix.

Compare A to B to C to D, it doesn't make them the same player, especially given the lengthy numbers both have accumulated.

 

[kramnoj]

The irony here Joe is that if some other team tried to throw in Fred Jelson, a 25 year-old with identical numbers, in a trade to us, the same folks would say he's a 4A player. But, because he is Crew property, he's "special".

 

What position does Fred Jelson play? CF? I would take that player as a throw in. We need someone to play CF next year. If he was a throw in and he could play CF for a year or two until the youngsters are ready, I would take that. Are you are saying that we would take Fred Jelson if he played 1B? That just doesn't make any sense. We don't need someone there.

 

His ceiling appears to be a 1B/LF reserve. Gwynn has much more of a chance to be a major league contributor, but some are ready to give him away and argue Nelson has value. I do not get it at all...he does have a smidgen of value...but not a whole lot.

 

His ceiling might be that. Or it might not. We won't know for sure until someone gives him a chance. As far as some giving away Gwynn and saying Nelson has value, why don't you avoid the "some say" argument and actually address what people are saying. We can make another thread about Gwynn if you want, but this thread is "what do we see for Brad Nelson".

 

The mere mention of him in the same sentence as "replace Prince" is offensive to me. I can name at least 20 guys not starting in the bigs that are not top prospects I'd rather have as a stopgap 1B.

 

OK, why don't you do that, and then tell us how much those players would cost to acquire. If Prince were to be traded, it would presumably only be for a young starter, which looks to be a weakness next year. A weakness that we don't appear to be able to replace in the farm system and that we either may not be able to replace in the FA market, or will pay dearly for. Nelson could be a stopgap for one year if the team thought it was the best way to build a roster next year while maintaing the development of guys like Gamel. He wouldn't be good. He would probably be below average. But he probably wouldn't be an embarrasment compared to others playing 1B. Look at 1B this year. An 800 OPS is average, but there are a dozen guys below that starting at 1B right now. This is like your thought that every single AAA team has players hitting better than Nelson. It seems like you are assuming that every team has a guy at 1B with an 800 OPS, but that isn't true.

 

He's had 1100 AAA AB's, yet many act like the 300 from '08 are all he's had, because it favors their point. He's older than many of the Crew's current players. He simply does not have the numbers to match the hype.

 

Not ignoring, no. But projections weigh recent performance the most, and a 25 year old in a projection is going to have an improvement. That is what the focus is on. As far as hype, what hype are you talking about? That he may be a stop gap starter at 1B for a small window? If you think that I use the word "value" as hype, than you are misunderstading what I am saying. A player that is below average playing at the minimum has value, as long as he's not truly bad. Teams often spend millions to be below average at a position. If you can get the same production at minimum, with no guaranteed long term contract, that is valuable.

[igor67]

Just following up on the distinction between translations and projections. The translation is designed to tell you what the players performance would look like in a different context environment. A good translation should account for any park effects and the difficulty of the league if it is a minor league. A projection is designed to tell you what a player will do, at the root of any good projection is a good translation, and then things like the age of the player are taken into account. Any system that can do projections to 70% accuracy is pretty good since that is in the neighborhood of the normal variation in player stats just do to batting average. Further the research on minor league data shows that it is as useful for predicting major league performance as a rule as major league ABs. Now on a practical level there is more variation in a projection for an A ball player than a AAA player, but that is a side effect of measuring the league difficulties and having to project more growth from A ball numbers.

[Postseason2006]

EDIT: I never noticed it before, but compare Nelson's AAA numbers to Laynce Nix.

Then compare ages.

[dadofandrew]

Then compare ages.

 

That's the point.

Nix at 25----.347/.506, 853 OPS, 176 OXS

Nelson, 25--.409/.488, 897, 199

 

Brad is better, but considering Nix plays a pretty good CF, they are comparable.

 

What people are saying is that he'd likely be a 800ish OPS guy and that's pretty much average for a first baseman, which in other words means he would be no worse than about half of the rest of baseball.

 

The AL averaged 791 last year, but the NL 846, so 820 is much more accurate. Considering he's an 800 career OPS guy in AAA, imagining he'd be a 800 OPS guy in the majors seems rather optimistic, to say the least. As I have said before, ignoring his previous 750ish AB's in AAA and going with only his '08 numbers seems to be cherry picking, even if he did have an injury which may have sapped his power.

 

I don't see it. He's too old to be much of a prospect, and he's not good enough to be compared to Jack Cust and the like.

[kramnoj]

Al, I don't understand why you are talking about 800 OPS and being average. My whole point is that Nelson can be valuable to one team by being better than anybody they have. Let's look at another team, the Indians. Ryan Garko has the 25th best OPS among starters at 1B this season with 668. That amounts to a 78 OPS+. And there are 5 teams that have 1B wishing they were hitting that well. Nelson could OPS 700 and he would improve some teams.

 

Garko had previously played a nice 1B for 188 games but he is already 27. Is he just slumping, or has he already peaked and is he declining? The Indians don't have anyone in AAA that is better than Nelson. They could put LaPorta there if they needed to, or they could have him play in the OF. If I'm the Indians, having Nelson in my farm system next year gives me a better chance to have a 1B in the majors who isn't awful.

 

Garko is also an interesting comparison for Nelson. He had a 882 OPS in AAA at 24 and 772 OPS in AAA as a 25 year old, but was promoted to the majors and won a position at 1B. There are guys like Morrow who look like AAA All Stars but never get a real shot, and then a guy like Garko who gets a shot and holds his own for awhile. I think Nelson could do that for some team for a few years until they get somebody better.

[battlekow]

Worst thread ever?

[JoeHova]

Worst thread ever?

Why the snide, condescending remark? Some of us were having a discussion/argument. If you aren't interested, just ignore it, don't piss on everyone involved.

 

[Mass Haas]

Poor decision on the comment, bk, and missed earlier or would have been removed by mods and addresed privately. Now that it's been acknowledged, let's drop it now on both sides -- should folks return to the discussion, let's just be careful not to get repetitive in the points / counterpoints. Thanks.

[battlekow]

You can delete it Mass, I don't mind. I just think it's amazing that this has gone on for three pages with people saying the same things over and over again. It's not a comment about you yoursel, Joe. Not sure why you seem to take everything so personally. Since we seem to be so fond saying what should and shouldn't be clear, Iz would think it's pretty clear that "worst thread ever" is said hyperbolically and somewhat tongue-in-cheek.

[JoeHova]

I'm aware that "worst thread ever" is something of an internet meme, but even tongue in cheek, it seems like an overreaction. I just don't like implied censorship, I guess, which may be why I took it a little personally.

[obobo55]

My whole point in starting the discussion was simply this:

 

1--Nelson is putting up decent numbers at AAA after pretty much falling completely off the radar.

2--Being 25, the Brewers really need to decide what they are doing with him.

3--Since he is still our property, I would like to get some sort of value out of him if possible.

 

My argument wasn't that he would be great, or even that we should consider having him up next year, but I would like to do one or the other (trade). Seems silly to lose a guy who still may have value for nothing. Obviously Al and Joe believe he is worth nothing at this point. They may be correct and I do like hearing their opinions on the matter. I do believe they may be discounting the effect of the injury, but I really don't know anything about it other than reading that it really saps power. That is why I was asking for the P50 guys opinions, as I expect they have a better grasp on it than most.

 

I have always thought that spending large amounts of $$$ on 1B is something a small-market team can ill afford to do. I like Prince a lot, but he is going to be real expensive very soon. If we could flip him for young pitching talent, it makes all the sense in the world to me. Then you backfill at first with a cheap body that can put up average numbers. Whether that is Nelson or not really doesn't matter but he is ours, so I asked what people thought. (Of course if I am a MLB GM, I wouldn't trade my pitching talent anyways. Nut I can dream right?)

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I recommend this thread to anyone who is drunk at 2 am in the morning. Great stuff.

 

Fred Jelson? NICE!

[JoeHova]

Obviously Al and Joe believe he is worth nothing at this point.

 

nothing is a slight overstatement. we just don't think he's worth much, or more than a lot of other minor league vets. Al said a couple times he could see him as a reserve, as could I.

[LouisEly]

EDIT: I never noticed it before, but compare Nelson's AAA numbers to Laynce Nix.

 

1) Nix never broke his hammate, or had any serious injury.

 

B) Outside of 2007, which appears to be the exception, since 2005 Nelson has had much better plate discipline. 2005: 71BB/116K; 2006: 81BB/96K; 2007: 31BB/98K; 2008: 59BB/53K. Nix has never had that type of plate discipline.

[Postseason2006]

Never going to convince him Lou. He thinks LuCroy is a backup catcher.

[dadofandrew]

I do not believe I have commented on LuCroy's potential, other than to say I have seen him mentioned as a potential reserve in the bigs...which certainly has value, albeit slight compared to the megastar he has already been appointed here, because of a few good PA's against crappy competition. Personally, if he is a reserve someday, I'd be giddy, as that is a fine return for an early pick, other than the 1st round, perhaps.

[uwisfan]

Nelson & Salome's names just popped in to the trade rumor going on...apologies, salome, not escobar

[dadofandrew]

Escobar? Heh.

[gregmag]

What I don't get is how some of those who aren't high on Nelson can frame their points with such sweeping certainty. To me, this is one of those classic cases where both sides of the question have evidence behind them. On one hand, Nelson has been at AAA forever, and he performed poorly there before last year. On the other hand, he was a top prospect, then suffered an injury that could very easily correspond with his struggles over his down years, and is now recovered from the injury and having some success.

 

I don't see how anybody can say with much certainty what we have here. Brad Nelson could be a AAAA journeyman, or he could be one developmental step (and 25 year-olds do tend to develop further) from being a MLB starter. Inflexible analysis never did anybody much good, but in this case it's especially unhelpful. I'd love to find a bench role for Nelson and see whether he can grow in it.

 

Greg.

[uwisfan]

I agree that its unfair to paste him as a journeyman. It seems a given from everyone's perspective, with no need to consider his health into the equation... I disagre..

[Fatter than Joey]

1) Nix never broke his hammate, or had any serious injury.

 

Nix tore his labrum in 2005 and was shut down.

[JJHardy7]

nothing is a slight overstatement. we just don't think he's worth much, or more than a lot of other minor league vets. Al said a couple times he could see him as a reserve, as could I.

 

If Zach Jackson can be part of a trade, so can Brad Nelson. I think we're not valuing Nelson here based on some of these posts. MLB scouts from a few teams have made trips to see Nelson. I'm not saying he'll bring a solid MLB vet, but he could be moved to bring a young prospect into the system or a package to get some MLB talent.

[JoeHova]

It seems a given from everyone's perspective, with no need to consider his health into the equation... I disagre..

 

But is it really fair to blame 4 bad years on that same injury? Maybe it is, but I have some doubts about that. I mean, pitchers come back from getting ligaments replaced much quicker than that, why would it take so long for a broken bone to heal? I know wrist injuries are problematic, but still, 4 years? I really think much of it was just poor performance. If you look at his numbers, the only time he was good before this year was the first 3/4 of 2002. He wasn't especially good in rookie ball the year before (small sample though) and he struggled when he was moved up to the Cal League (small sample again though).

 

Brad could, I guess, be picking up where he left off in 2002. I just think it's unlikely. I think he's having a nice year in AAA, but I'm not convinced it means he's reclaimed his prospect status. I think it's more likely he's just having a nice first half or he's becoming an AAA slugger. I realize a lot of people like Brad personally, and so do I. People seem to think that I (and other detractors) are hoping he'll fail. That's not the case, I'd love it if he broke out and became a good MLer. I just don't think this half season is evidence he's done that.

[endaround]

Given that this injury is the type that completely kills careers, yeah 4 years isn't that long of a time.