What do we see for Brad Nelson?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

So here in lies the question of who would be a better starting 1B in 2009 for the Brewers: Brad Nelson or Chris Errecart?

[battlekow]

So here in lies the question of who would be a better starting 1B in 2009 for the Brewers: Brad Nelson or Chris Errecart?

We talked about that recently.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Well if you look at that thread, it seems to point towards Nelson as a better prospect, but if you look at this thread a lot of people are down on Nelson. So I will conclude that neither is a good option to start at 1B in 2009 and that we should look at moving Gamel and his 24, 3B errors to 1B because we need the pitching from Prince being traded.

[battlekow]

Well if you look at that thread, it seems to point towards Nelson as a better prospect, but if you look at this thread a lot of people are down on Nelson. So I will conclude that neither is a good option to start at 1B in 2009 and that we should look at moving Gamel and his 24, 3B errors to 1B because we need the pitching from Prince being traded.

Dunno if you're being sarcastic, but no, I don't think either Nelson or Errecart is a legitimate Major League first baseman.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

No, I wasn't being sarcastic at all. I was just seeing if we were on the same page. It looks like 1B is a position that needs to be addressed and maybe it was taken care of in this year's draft. We'll see in the coming months and years.

[dadofandrew]

26 year-old 1B with a MLE of 740 have very little to no value. If folks want to overvalue him like they did Krynzel, that's their right.

 

Anyone with a Baseball America can find that every AAA team has many players hitting just like Brad, or better. Because 1B is on the far right of the defensive spectrum, and 26 is old for a prospect, that's a lot of negatives for a guy to overcome. His ceiling appears very limited, to say the least.

[And That]

Because 1B is on the far right of the defensive spectrum

1B is on the far left of the defensive spectrum.

 

[kramnoj]

Anyone with a Baseball America can find that every AAA team has many players hitting just like Brad, or better.

 

I have baseball reference, and I'll dispute this statement. Your claim is exaggerated, at the least, or it's just plain wrong.

 

Nelson's OPS right now is .897.

 

Baltimore has two guys worse than Nelson but above 800. They are 28 and 30.

The Reds don't have a starter that is hitting better than Nelson.

The Indians don't have a starter OPS within 100 points of Nelson.

The Astros have 3 guys hitting worse than Nelson, but within 50 points, they are 28 and 34

The Twins have two guys that have hit better than Nelson, but they both have ML experience this year, and are performing above average. So they have no true AAA players hitting better than him.

The Pirates don't have anyone doing as well as Nelson.

Toronto only has Lind, who has performed well in the Majors this year.

The Nationals don't have anyone within 30 OPS points.

 

So I count 8 teams that don't have full-time starters at the AAA level that are performing as well as Nelson. Many of the other players performing better are a couple years older and/or are in PCL altidude-inflated parks.

 

I also question the validity of the 740 MLE. I am more inclined to trust the work of the creator of ZiPS, whose tool calcualted Nelson's MLE this year to be above 800.

[JoeHova]

I also question the validity of the 740 MLE. I am more inclined to trust the work of the creator of ZiPS, whose tool calcualted Nelson's MLE this year to be above 800.

 

Our point is that if Nelson's .897 translates so well, what do the 50 guys with better AAA OPS's translate as? Also, MLE is not a projection, it is a translation. Nelson's projection will assuredly be much lower than whatever his MLE is this year because he has 2 horrible years preceding this one that must be taken into account. His Zips projection before this season was .309 OBP, .381 SLG. His PECOTA was .325 OBP, .404 SLG (which is actually unexpectedly not that horrible and again calls into question BPs methodology because his raw OBP in AAA last year was less than that and they have him losing only 40 points of OPS overall going from AAA to MLB). Even then though, that .730 (or my .740) would rank him dead last among (14 qualified) NL 1st basemen in OPS. An .800 OPS (going by the BP translation) would rank him 10th in raw OPS but probably actually 12th because a couple of the guys slightly below him play in pitchers parks.

 

I stand by my thesis that Nelson is a fringey MLer. Maybe he'll get a shot, maybe not, but no team (including the Brewers) will make any plan that's contingent on him at this point.

[JoeHova]

also, if we're using that ZiPS calculator, we should count all the guys in lower levels whose stats translate as well or better than Nelson's. For example, Salome (a 22 year old catcher vs. a 25 year old 1st baseman) translates at .348 OBP, .456 SLG. That would rank Salome 10th out of the 40 guys who have caught a game in the NL so far this year and 7th out of 20 guys who have 110 or more ABs. Yet I don't hear anyone clamoring for a spot to be cleared for Angel. Lucroy translates almost (but not quite) as well.

 

anyway, Brad is having a nice season and I'm happy he's put himself back on the map. I just don't think he's a viable option starting 1st baseman.

[SoCalBrewfan]

'll just point out that Brad has the 34th best OPS in the PCL and 51st best in AAA overall.

 

While Nelson isn't a top prospect at this point, discussion of his stats in AAA should include acknowledgement that Nashville is on on a par with Tacoma and New Orleans as extreme pitcher's parks by PCL standards. (At least that has been the case in recent years.) It's not a reasonable comparison to look at his raw numbers vs. someone playing is Las Vegas or Salt Lake or Colorado Springs, which are huge hitters' parks. That may be part of the discrepancy in MLEs...seems like people look at the PCL and assume every park there is a bandbox.

 

26 year-old 1B with a MLE of 740

 

Despite this assertion, he's not 26 yet. (DOB 12/23/82) Of the guys ahead of him in terms of RC/G in the PCL, only four are under 25, and those guys are top tier prospects. One year of age might seem like it's quibbling, but age is very important for young players.

 

Nelson would be probably be better than replacement level in the big leagues tomorrow, and still has a bit of room to grow as he hits his peak. Given his injury, it is very possible that his numbers this year are a better gauge of future value than his career numbers...that's not certain but a good guess. Still, I think that he's a better fit for a team like Seattle that is (or should be, at least) in the talent-gathering phase, rather than a team like Milwaukee who is contending. On the Brewers he's a bench player...on an AL team with weaknesses at 1b, dh, or LF, he's a potential starter, at least as a platoon player...there's not an overwhelming chance that he's an average hitter at those positions, but there is still a chance as he hits ages 26 - 28. For teams like that, Nelson would be a good pickup. I can't imagine that any contending team would have Nelson as their primary option at this point...he may yet have the opportunity to prove himself.

 

Nelson to me is a bit like Lyle Overbay, though Lyle had the advantage of great hitter's parks in his minor league career, and was always old for his league. Despite his gaudy minor league numbers, Overbay didn't establish himself in the majors until he was traded to Milwaukee, a team desperate for talent at the time. Despite Nelson's rep as a power hitter, he's never hit a lot of HR, probably due to the wrist problem, but he could have a few years' career as a decent doubles guy with good average and OBP.

 

While Errecart and Nelson are still worth watching, and could have some value to a team that needs bats, I think the Brewers are unlikely to go in that direction. Nelson could serve as a bench bat in September.

 

Also, first base is on the left of the defensive spectrum, if we're feeling picky:

 

http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/bbd-bj1.html

 

Though I did see someone list the spectrum vertically, which is even odder...

[kramnoj]

Our point is that if Nelson's .897 translates so well, what do the 50 guys with better AAA OPS's translate as?

 

I guarantee that Nelson would translate better than many of that 50, because of park effects. I would also eliminate players of a certain age (at least 30, maybe 28 or 29). I'm also not sure what the AB cut off was, because a few of the players hitting better than Nelson have seen ML time this year and have done well.

 

Also, MLE is not a projection, it is a translation.

 

I've tried to avoid saying this. But I would have to think that Szym uses the MLE's in some way as part of Zips, otherwise he wouldn't have taken the time to created based on a million minor league player seasons.

 

Nelson's projection will assuredly be much lower than whatever his MLE is this year because he has 2 horrible years preceding this one that must be taken into account.

 

Nelson will also be entering peak season age and will be given a uptick in performance because of that.

 

I stand by my thesis that Nelson is a fringey MLer. Maybe he'll get a shot, maybe not, but no team (including the Brewers) will make any plan that's contingent on him at this point.

 

He doesn't have to be a long term plan, which is all that I've said. He can be a guy that is a stopgap for a short term. I don't think Nelson has much value on his own. But he might have value to the Orioles if the Brewers trade for Brian Roberts for example.

 

also, if we're using that ZiPS calculator, we should count all the guys in lower levels whose stats translate as well or better than Nelson's

 

Not really. The point I have been making is how attractive is Nelson for teams looking for a stopgap for next year. Salome and players like him don't enter into that conversation.

[JoeHova]

The point I have been making is how attractive is Nelson for teams looking for a stopgap for next year. Salome and players like him don't enter into that conversation.

How not? Their stats translate just as well, which is the whole point of MLEs. It shows what a player would have done in MLB. What would it matter if their translated .800 OPS was from AAA, AA or even A+? It's all equal.

 

I guarantee that Nelson would translate better than many of that 50, because of park effects.

Probably. So what? It doesn't change my point.

But I would have to think that Szym uses the MLE's in some way as part of Zips

I would think that too, but it still doesn't make them a projection.

 

I would also eliminate players of a certain age (at least 30, maybe 28 or 29).

Why? We're not talking about top prospects here, we're talking about performance and what a guy could do now.

[kramnoj]

How not? Their stats translate just as well, which is the whole point of MLEs. It shows what a player would have done in MLB. What would it matter if their translated .800 OPS was from AAA, AA or even A+? It's all equal.

 

Because the population of players like Salome are not in the pool of candidates for playing 1B for the Orioles next year. Nelson may be. I am approaching this from an actual market standpoint. The Orioles need a 1B next year. Who will be the candidates they could target, at what cost to them? Nelson may be available in the Rule V draft, and woujld be better than anybody the Orioles have on their roster. Or they could get him in a trade that involves one of their major league players this year, be it Roberts, Sherrill, etc. Players like Salome won't be available in the Rule V draft and would probably not be available in a trade, or would be more expensive in a trade than Nelson.

 

Probably. So what? It doesn't change my point.

 

I confess to not understanding your point. If your point is that lots of players in AAA have OPS but it doesn't mean anything, I'm not sure what the value of that point is.

 

Why? We're not talking about top prospects here, we're talking about performance and what a guy could do now.

 

Because players that have improved at 25 and will be turning 26 could be improving as players. Players that are 28 or older are likely to have reached their peak, and if they haven't won a ML job yet, the chances of them earning one are quite small.

 

It seems like we are approaching different topics here. I am looking at what value Nelson has to a specific team, looking at who is available to fill needs, doing a crude supply demand analysis. You seem to be saying there are lots of players that have better AAA stats, but aren't actually interested in adjusting for context, availability, anything like that. You are correct that Nelson Cruz is destroying AAA, but he has been given a chance to hit major league pitching and has failed. The Orioles need to start a 1B next year, Nelson is better than anybody they have in their system for that role next year, and he is probably going to be available for $50,000 this offseason. I really think the Brewers should target them as a trade partner, because I think that is the best way to get value out of Nelson and if they are going to trade for Roberts, I would much rather lose Nelson than some B prospect.

[JoeHova]

I confess to not understanding your point. If your point is that lots of players in AAA have OPS but it doesn't mean anything, I'm not sure what the value of that point is.

Even if some of the 50 guys doing better than Nelson by raw OPS would be knocked down below him when adjusting for park effects because they are playing in Colorado Springs or Albuquerque or Las Vegas, there are still dozens doing better. Also, the IL is a lower offense league, so some of those guys would probably pass him when adjusting their numbers. I just used OPS because it gave a simple, easy to understand (or so I thought) ballpark figure. Whether the exact number is 60 or 50 or 40, it doesn't change the general idea.

The Orioles need to start a 1B next year, Nelson is better than anybody they have in their system for that role next year, and he is probably going to be available for $50,000 this offseason. I really think the Brewers should target them as a trade partner, because I think that is the best way to get value out of Nelson and if they are going to trade for Roberts, I would much rather lose Nelson than some B prospect.

They certainly do need a 1B, as will 29 other teams. Why would it be Nelson rather than any other guy? Why would they give up Roberts or Sherrill for Nelson when they could grab him in a couple months (as you yourself say) for $50,000? That's what I don't understand.

You are correct that Nelson Cruz is destroying AAA, but he has been given a chance to hit major league pitching and has failed.

Exactly (though we can debate how much of a chance 440 ABs spread over (mostly) 2 years really is). So why would a guy with a similar but worse profile be a great bet to succeed instead? Cruz got his first shot at 24, when he had nearly identical numbers to what Nelson is doing as a 25 year old.

Because the population of players like Salome are not in the pool of candidates for playing 1B for the Orioles next year.

I would actually argue the opposite. Guys like Salome (ie- nice prospects) are probably more likely to be manning 1st for the Orioles next year than a guy like Micah Hoffpauir or Brad Nelson. Teams just don't use failed guys like Nelson at 1st very often. Anybody can play it, which means that the pool of players is everybody. Kevin Millar (signed out of the Northern League) is the only non-prospect who is playing 1st right now (among 26 qualified players). Otherwise, the closest are Mark Teahen (who was dealt for Carlos Beltran, so he was valued by someone) and Mike Jacobs (who was dealt for Delgado, so ditto). Every single other guy was a very highly regarded prospect. Maybe Brad can look at Carlos Pena and take some heart, but Pena lost his prospect luster while he was playing in MLB, opposed to Brad who lost it in the low minors.

[kramnoj]

They certainly do need a 1B, as will 29 other teams.

 

Well, this just isn't true. I'm not going to take the time to go through all 30 teams, because I don't get the sense that you are interested in an actual discussion. The Brewers for example don't need a 1B next year. They have Fielder. The Orioles, meanwhile have a poorly performing Millar on their roster whose contract is about to end and they don't have anybody in their system who looks like they can step in and fill that void. They actually need, in the most absolute sense of the word, a 1B, because they don't have anybody there.

 

Why would it be Nelson rather than any other guy?

 

I think I've said why a couple of times, but I'll state it clearly here. Nelson is improving at an age where players often improve, which means that his improvement shouldn't be seen as a fluke, but progress. His age next year should be seen as a positive, not a negative. He doesn't have much value to his current team, and may be available this season in a trade, or in the offseason in the Rule V draft. I haven't taken the time to go through all 30 teams to examine their 40 man roster and who will be available for the Orioles to look at. But I imagine that Nelson is a player who would be an improvement for the Orioles over anybody they have, and he would be the least expensive player they could target to fill their need. Normally a team might look at major league FA, but there are two players they may not get, and after that not a lot. Nelson could probably give better or equal performance than a lot of the ML FA this offseason, and he could do it cheaper.

 

Why would they give up Roberts or Sherrill for Nelson when they could grab him in a couple months (as you yourself say) for $50,000? That's what I don't understand.

 

Well, I'm not suggesting they give up either player for Nelson. I figure Nelson would be a player that would improve their system, and he could be included as part of a larger trade, whether that includes Weeks, or some other higher prospects they Orioles may want and the Brewers would trade for Roberts or Sherrill. As to why they should trade for him rather than get him in the Rule V draft, the answer is fairly obvious. If they trade for him, they can put him on the AAA team for depth. Because you are right, he's not the kind of player that a team looks at to be their shiny acquisition to start at 1B. But he would improve their system, and he would provide depth in case their bad FA signing doesn't turn out well.

 

So why would a guy with a similar but worse profile be a great bet to succeed instead?

 

This is just a bad argument. There aren't a lot of players who hit better than what Cruz has done recently. That doesn't mean that teams will stop giving chances to other players. I've also never said that Nelson would be a great bet. I just think he is a guy that could play 1B in the majors without being an embarrasment, and his window is the next couple of years.

 

I would actually argue the opposite. Guys like Salome (ie- nice prospects) are probably more likely to be manning 1st for the Orioles next year than a guy like Micah Hoffpauir or Brad Nelson.

 

Why would you think this? The Orioles don't have a lot of prospect depth to trade away, I'm not sure how they are going to get a prospect to play 1B. If they have nice prospects, they should be hanging on to them to try to improve their team. A guy like Nelson can man the position for a year or two without being awful and can do so cheaply.

 

Teams just don't use failed guys like Nelson at 1st very often. Anybody can play it, which means that the pool of players is everybody.

 

I wouldn't call Nelson a failed player. I would also dispute that anybody can play 1B. Piazza coudln't for example, and he will be a HoF catcher. It is true that most players should, but not everybody can actually do so.

[JoeHova]

Well, this just isn't true. I'm not going to take the time to go through all 30 teams, because I don't get the sense that you are interested in an actual discussion. The Brewers for example don't need a 1B next year. They have Fielder. The Orioles, meanwhile have a poorly performing Millar on their roster whose contract is about to end and they don't have anybody in their system who looks like they can step in and fill that void. They actually need, in the most absolute sense of the word, a 1B, because they don't have anybody there.

I thought it was obvious that I was saying that all 30 teams will need somebody to stand at 1st base next year. Whatever the current configuration of those 30 is, it won't be the same next year, so theoretically, any team could be looking to get a 1st baseman at any time.

 

The Orioles don't have anybody there now except Millar. A lot can change in 8 months though. They could sign Teixiera. They could move Huff from DH to 1st. They could do any number of things that don't involve Brad Nelson.

 

Nelson is improving at an age where players often improve, which means that his improvement shouldn't be seen as a fluke, but progress.

In your opinion. In my opinion, I need more evidence before I can say it's not a fluke, and even if it isn't one, it's not such a compelling performance from a 25 year old 1st baseman during his 4th go-round in AAA.

 

This is just a bad argument. There aren't a lot of players who hit better than what Cruz has done recently. That doesn't mean that teams will stop giving chances to other players. I've also never said that Nelson would be a great bet. I just think he is a guy that could play 1B in the majors without being an embarrasment, and his window is the next couple of years.

This is my fault. I didn't mean to use it as an argument, just as an example.

 

Why would you think this? The Orioles don't have a lot of prospect depth to trade away, I'm not sure how they are going to get a prospect to play 1B. If they have nice prospects, they should be hanging on to them to try to improve their team. A guy like Nelson can man the position for a year or two without being awful and can do so cheaply.

What I meant was that Wieters or Nolan Reimold could play 1st for a year or they could acquire someone in a deal for Sherrill or Roberts or Cabrera.

I wouldn't call Nelson a failed player. I would also dispute that anybody can play 1B. Piazza coudln't for example, and he will be a HoF catcher. It is true that most players should, but not everybody can actually do so.

I was actually going to bring up Piazza, but I passed on it. Oh well. I meant that Nelson is a failed prospect. He went from being the Brewers #1 prospect to being their #45 prospect (P50) and signed with the team as a minor league free agent for 2008.

[Postseason2006]

Can people who think keep comparing Nelson to one player try to remember that other guys such as Rick Ankiel, Josh Hamilton, Troy O'Leary, Brian Dabauch, John Jaha, Trot Nixon etc. who are either stars or players that played for quite a few seasons?

 

This crap about how serviceable only will matter after his career is over. The guy was once our minor league player of the year and hearing one person compare him to Nelson Cruz means nothing until he gets a chance to play in baseball. Wave Josh Hamilton and Rick Ankiel because they did nothing....VENT OVER....

[JoeHova]

Nobody is comparing him to Nelson Cruz. I was merely using Cruz as an example of a guy doing even better than Brad is.

 

And what does it matter that Nelson was the Brewers minor league player of the year 5 years ago?

 

I dunno, I just don't think Nelson will be a very good ML player. Why is that such a crime? There is plenty of evidence to back such a position up.

[kramnoj]

JoeHova:

 

" meant that Nelson is a failed prospect. He went from being the Brewers #1 prospect to being their #45 prospect (P50) and signed with the team as a minor league free agent for 2008. "

 

"And what does it matter that Nelson was the Brewers minor league player of the year 5 years ago?"

 

Joe, nobody is saying that Nelson will be a very good MLB player, in the literal sense of those words. Some of us are suggesting he may have some value. Your arguments aren't crimes, what a weird thing to say. But if some of us feel that your statements are too dismissive of Nelson's talents, we can choose to dispute them.

[dadofandrew]

The irony here Joe is that if some other team tried to throw in Fred Jelson, a 25 year-old with identical numbers, in a trade to us, the same folks would say he's a 4A player. But, because he is Crew property, he's "special".

 

His ceiling appears to be a 1B/LF reserve. Gwynn has much more of a chance to be a major league contributor, but some are ready to give him away and argue Nelson has value. I do not get it at all...he does have a smidgen of value...but not a whole lot.

 

The mere mention of him in the same sentence as "replace Prince" is offensive to me. I can name at least 20 guys not starting in the bigs that are not top prospects I'd rather have as a stopgap 1B.

[And That]

The irony here Joe is that if some other team tried to throw in Fred Jelson, a 25 year-old with identical numbers, in a trade to us, the same folks would say he's a 4A player. But, because he is Crew property, he's "special".

You're the first person in the thread to use the word "special" - but at least you have realized he's 25 years old now.

 

What people are saying is that he'd likely be a 800ish OPS guy and that's pretty much average for a first baseman, which in other words means he would be no worse than about half of the rest of baseball. Which is not to mention the defensive upgrade from Prince.

 

Which is also not to mention his recovery from his hamate injury. But since he's 26 and on the left of the defensive spectrum with every other AAA team having a player like him...

[pete]

If the success of an argument is contingent upon perversion of language, I submit its a poor argument. MLEs are unquestionably projections i.e. estimates. Declaring them to be "translations" a fairly non-sensical use of the word doesn't increase their accuracy.

 

 

 

I doubt they even achieve the accuracy of PECOTA or ZIPS. The proprietors of those products use hyperbole like "extremely accurate" to describe them because they achieve around 70 percent accuracy and even that is questionable because it is usually a product of complex calculations that they themselves make. That is good for a casual game of darts and might serve as a useful crutch to assemble a fantasy baseball roster but there aren't many other applications where 70 percent (or lower) correctness is viewed as accurate. Projecting minor league performance into the majors has been viewed previously as notoriously difficult. What scientific breakthroughs have occurred to change that?

 

 

 

A synonym for estimate is guess. That's what the discussion is. Claiming certainty for MLEs isn't as bad as declaring that estimates can determine "true talent" though. That is offensive.

[dadofandrew]

He's an 800 OPS guy in AAA. While the injury may have affected his power, I find it hard to believe his OBP was bothered. He's had 1100 AAA AB's, yet many act like the 300 from '08 are all he's had, because it favors their point. He's older than many of the Crew's current players. He simply does not have the numbers to match the hype.

 

As a 25th man making $325 next year, I would not be unhappy, but that's a lot closer to his ceiling than talk of him starting in the bigs.

 

EDIT: I never noticed it before, but compare Nelson's AAA numbers to Laynce Nix.

[JoeHova]

MLEs are unquestionably projections i.e. estimates. Declaring them to be "translations" a fairly non-sensical use of the word doesn't increase their accuracy.

Then you misunderstand the word. Translation means: "the conversion of something from one form or medium into another", in other words, the conversion of minor league numbers into major league numbers. It's funny that you accuse me of using language incorrectly when you apparently have little idea of what you are referring to. Meanwhile, a projection is "an estimate or forecast of a future situation or trend based on a study of present ones". MLEs attempt to tell you what happened, not what can be expected to happen in the future. They are subject to the same small-sample noise that any numbers are subject to over a given couple months, which is why the better projection systems use several seasons of data and other factors to project what they believe will happen. You are correct that a projection is an estimate but no one has come close to disputing that, so you are arguing against a straw man.