What do we see for Brad Nelson?

[obobo55]

This is mostly aimed at the P50 editors, but chime in if you want. Could he play 1B as a regular next year if we trade Prince? What numbers would you expect from him in that role? Do we trade him at the deadline? In the offseason?

 

.409 OBP

.492 SLG

12 stolen bases

just 3 errors

 

Just my opinion, but he appears to finally have recovered from the hamate injury and would be terrible to let go for nothing in return. If Prince is still here, could he still play in the OF?

 

Just want to hear others opinion on how good he really is...

[wibadgers23]

I'm impressed with his strikeout to walk ratio which is 51:58. It really does look like he's turned the corner a little bit. Let's see if he keeps it up.

[Postseason2006]

I would love to see him play first at this point over Prince with him being dealt w/ some players in return at this point. Nelson's defense alone might have saved us 2 wins this year.

[ILuvDaBush]

I could see him being the "Branyan on the bench" guy, the backup corner infielder (though definitely a more apt 1B) while also being a nominal contributor (read: emergency) in the outfield. He definitely fits the mantra of our Brews, "Have bat, will travel." And wasn't it written somewhere that this is the first time since Prince arrived on the scene that he has felt fully healthy?

[DHonks]

At this point I would anticipate Nelson being a .260 avg, decent obp, 25 hr guy in the bigs. If we deal Prince for pitching, I'd want him at first to at least open the year, but wouldn't consider him a roadblock for Gamel

[JoeHova]

I feel the need to point out that a .900 AAA OPS translates to a .740 or so ML OPS, which would make Brad a well-below average 1st baseman. Actually, that would only be average or above for a catcher or shortstop. That's what Bill Hall hit last year. There is no way that they trade Prince to make room for Brad Nelson. There is no way they go into a season with Brad Nelson as the starting 1st baseman unless Prince (or whoever) gets hurt the day before the opener. You can't put terrible players at first base and expect to compete (unless you have great hitters up the middle, which the Brewers don't), it's too big a piece of the offense for any team.

 

I can see Brad as a serviceable bench bat (Wes Helms type), but I can just as easily see him never getting more than a cup of coffee. With that kind of player, it all depends on finding a team that likes you enough to give you regular playing time so that you acquire that proven-player sheen. If Brad come up for Seattle next season and goes 4-40, he may never get another shot, because there are plenty of guys like him (maybe a little older) laying around in AAA. Conversely, if he plays well for awhile when he first gets called up, maybe he can eke out a 10 year career of being the most hated player on various teams.

[igor67]

Through yesterday's game Baseball prospectus gives the following major league translation of Nelson's season 271 .370 .434. They have the OBP with a bit more staying power then his power production, but still good for an .804 OPS. They listed his translated EQA as .280 compared to the average first basemen this year in MLB at .278. I stick by my notion that he's shown enough to possibly have a Matt Stairs type career path, though Mike Stanley is more likely either way I see no reason to trade for a left handed bat when we've got a pretty good one their for the taking.

[TheCrew07]

I would submit Joe that you feel the need to say Brad will put up a 700 OPS because you hate the idea of trading Prince, which unfortunately is the most logical move to reload on pitching as he has the most value and is the most expendable. You don't have to agree about trading Prince, but give Nelson his due, he's bounced back very nicely after many us (myself included) wrote him off.

[bretsky07]

If you put Brad's current numbers into the Minor League Equivalency Calculator at Minor League Splits, it comes up with .263/.348/.406. I'm not sure if Joe did the same, but it's not like he just pulled the numbers out of nowhere.

 

I like Brad and think he could eventually outperform those numbers (especially the slugging) in the majors, but, if I saw Brad starting regularly at first next year, I would expect us to have a ridiculous starting rotation to offset the offensive downgrade.

 

Sheets (resigned with the money saved from not having to pay Prince in arbitration, and the loss of Gagne, Cameron, etc)

Gallardo

Young Stud brought back in a Prince trade

Parra

Suppan/Bush/McClung/Villanueva

[JoeHova]

I do my own MLE calculations but they are similar to the ones on minor league splits. BP is way too optimistic on the OBP, no way will Nelson have an OBP 100 points higher than his average in MLB.

 

My problem isn't with Nelson per se, it's with the idea that the Brewers, a team that thinks it is contending, would go into a season with a 26 year old guy with a career .787 minor league OPS as their starting 1st baseman. I can't see it happening, whether they deal Prince or not.

 

Just for comparisons sake:

 

Brad Nelson career AAA numbers:

328 games, 42 HRs, .267 BA, .354 OBP, .446 SLG, .800 OPS

 

Nelson Cruz career AAA numbers:

294 games, 73 HRs, .314 BA, .405 OBP, .591 SLG, .996 OPS

 

One of those guys has dominated AAA, the other hasn't. My point is that there are a lot of guys who are putting up much better numbers in AAA who also are not getting a shot, so why would the Brewers go with Brad Nelson at 1st over one of the other guys who has done much better? That's what I don't get. I don't see Brad Nelson ever being Milwaukee's starting 1st baseman unless it's on an emergency basis.

 

[silversurferr]

He should already be on the bench in the bigs.

[Hate those Rodents]

Meh, people say the same thing about guys like Gabe Gross, when truth is if Gabe gets 550 AB's, he ends up hitting .270 with 25-30 bombs and good obp and defense. Nelson COULD be rge same case scenario in time.

[Terok Balefire]

I think it is pretty unfair to use Nelson's career AAA numbers given his injury unless you want to make the argument that this year is a fluke and not due to him finally being healthy.

[TheCrew07]

I don't think that's a valid comparison and here's why.

 

Nelson has 3057 MiLB ABs... he's struck out 706 times and walked 368.

 

Cruz has 2594 MiLB ABs... and he's struck out 701 times and walked 270.

 

While Cruz's discipline has impoved dramatically the last 2 years in MiLB, they are very different types hitters. Cruz has more power and much more of a free swinger than Nelson.

 

Cruz got a very long MLB look last year hitting .235/.287/.384 and struck out 87 times with only 21 walks in 307 ABs... that ratio is very similar to his 2003 season with the Kane County Cougars (A) in Oakland's system. Nelson has never had a ratio that bad and only had a ratio around 3:1 in 2004, his first full season in AA. Cruz may very well settle in and get comfortable at the MLB level, but I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for it... when there's pressure on him I see him always reverting back into free swinging mode. Nelson has been pretty consistent as a patient hitter, he just couldn't get on base after his injury, his OBP is generally 60-100 points higher than his BA. Maybe it's true that Nelson can finally grip the bat well again, I don't know, but I'm not going to write someone off who's having AAA success until they actually get an extended shot to produce and fail.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I find it hard to believe that a 900 OPS in AAA translates into a .740 OPS in the majors. I'd like to see the basis of those numbers. That's pretty dramatic. I think Brad could very easily be an 800 OPS 1st basemen in the majors. That said, an 800 OPS 1st basemen is nothing to brag about.

[kramnoj]

.284/.370/.442 is the translation for this year that comes up with the new tool from the creator of ZiPS. I linked it in the Stats forum for anyone that wants to recreate it. That OPS would place him right in the middle of 1B this season.

 

Since this is a Nelson thread, I'll ask here: In another thread someone looked at the future offseason 40 man roster and minor leaguers that will need to be protected and thought that there might not be room to protect Nelson. Is that the general consensus? It would stink to lose a guy who is having such a good season. I figured that Nelson would be traded this month to a team that isn't deep at 1B as part of a package for a reliever.

[dadofandrew]

What Joe said. He's a 1B/LF backup at best, and very unlikely to be much more than that. Many forget he's near his mythical peak, so he should be dominating AAA at 26. Trent Durrington was a AAA all-star as well, vets hit in Nashville.

 

Gwynn will have a much longer and better career than Nelson. Every single team has a AAA 1B who can hit. Brad, because of LHness and his ability to play multiple positions, has a bit of a better chance, but not a whole lot.

[kramnoj]

What Joe said. He's a 1B/LF backup at best, and very unlikely to be much more than that. Many forget he's near his mythical peak, so he should be dominating AAA at 26. Trent Durrington was a AAA all-star as well, vets hit in Nashville.

 

Gwynn will have a much longer and better career than Nelson. Every single team has a AAA 1B who can hit. Brad, because of LHness and his ability to play multiple positions, has a bit of a better chance, but not a whole lot.

 

Part of Nelson's value lies precisely in that he is near his peak and should be a decent ML hitter for the next couple of years. Nobody is saying that Nelson should have a 10 year All Star career. Look at the Orioles for example. They are starting Millar at 1B and he is having a below average season. They have a 30 year old playing 1B in AAA and a couple of 24 year olds that aren't hitting well. The Orioles are a team that would be improved with Nelson, and he should be part of a trade package if one could be worked out for Brian Roberts or a reliever.

[obobo55]

I really wasn't pushing for him to replace Prince. Just asking what kind of a loss would we have with him in that spot if we are overwhelmed with an offer. I agree that he probably does no better than average production if we are pressed into that choice, but would that be too much of a loss? If he gives us 2-3 years of average production at 1B, isn't that worth something?

 

I guess it really depends on what Prince would fetch us in return. If you greatly improve your rotation, a small decrease in production at 1B should not hurt much.

[JoeHova]

I'll just point out that Brad has the 34th best OPS in the PCL and 51st best in AAA overall. That's not in-depth analysis and the numbers aren't translated or anything, it's just pointing out that literally dozens of guys are doing better than him right now and most of them will never get a shot. The list includes guys like Jeff Bailey, Brad Eldred, Dan Johnson, Brian Buscher, Dallas McPherson, Nelson Cruz, Matthew Brown, Micah Hoffpauir, Joe Mather (who seems to be an almost perfect analogue to Nelson), Terry Tiffee, Jeremy Reed, Jayson Nix, Joe Koshansky, Andres Torres, John-Ford Griffin and Tagg Bozied. There are some prospects too, but the lists are littered with guys in their mid to late 20s who may have gotten a cup of coffee or two but will likely never be regulars.

 

Nelson may be an exception, obviously I (and I'm sure Al and anybody else who doesn't have high hopes for Brad) hope he is and becomes a very valuable player. However, there just isn't much reason (in my opinion) to think he'll be able to do that. An average 1st baseman is an extremely high bar, it's about a 117 OPS+. The Brewers have 3 players who are above that this year- 1 came in 3rd in the MVP voting last year and the other 2 are all-stars this year. Russ Branyan is above that too so far but in limited action (and his AAA OPS was .250 points better than Nelson's).

[kramnoj]

An average 1st baseman is an extremely high bar, it's about a 117 OPS+.

 

Why are you setting the bar at average 1B? Just under half of players that man 1B will be below average. Millar isn't just having a below average season for 1B, his OPS+ is below 100. That is pathetic for a team that wants to be able to contend. Nelson doesn't have to be above average for every team. He just needs to be able to provide value for one team to be able to make a deal. This is true for the Orioles.

 

Here is a list of potential FA 1B this offseason per Cot's:

 

Rich Aurilia SF

Ben Broussard TEX

Carlos Delgado * NYM

Nomar Garciaparra LAD

Jason Giambi * NYY

Wes Helms PHI

Kevin Millar BAL

Richie Sexson SEA

Mark Teixeira ATL

Frank Thomas OAK

Jim Thome CWS

Daryle Ward CHC

 

That is not exactly an enticing list. If the Orioles miss on Texeira and Thome, they are going to be left with old and or bad players. Obviously I've focused on Baltimore here, but they are just the first team that I looked at. Nelson would be an attractive target for them to get for a few years until they have better options. For pre-arb players, that's all you need.

[TheCrew07]

I never said Nelson would be an all star, I never said he would be a long term solution, but if he can be a stop gap for a year or 2 that's fine, I don't even care about league average.

 

My primary concern has been, is, and will continue to be the team finding a cost effective top of the rotation starter. I don't a see prospect deal getting us one any longer, nor do think that would be in the best longterm interest of the club. Since prospects were moved for Sabathia (with Brantley, Green, or Lucroy sill going) a prospect deal would hinge on guys we really aren't going to be able to give up if we want any sustained success like Gamel. I like Fielder, but his total value as a player isn't irreplaceable, his offensive value may be in the short term. His value as a player is roughly equivilant to a guy like James Shields, just about anyone will play better defense at 1B, thus making the entire infield defense better and I'm willing to take a hit in the middle of the order to shore up the rotation.

 

While Salome is one of my boys, if a deal for Salome and Nelson could net us what we'll need I'd be all for it, I just don't see that as a realistic possibility for a young and established pitcher like Fields. Maybe if the team targets someone who's expendable like Neimann it could work, but he'll have Parraesque growing pains and I'd rather get a sure thing. If not then we're sitting around waiting on guys like Jeffress and Braddock to pan out, or hoping that Fredrickson and Bowman absolutely explode and fly through the system.

 

Whatever the case, Nelson has value, that's all I've been trying to say.

[dadofandrew]

Very limited value though. Throw in to a team that needs a LH bat off the bench. As Joe points out, there are 2-3 guys on every AAA team that are every bit as good, and many will be free this offseason. Doug has him on the 40 man, so he thinks he would be a popular minor league FA, at the very least, but I can't believe many teams see him as more than AAA depth.

 

Also, this is by far his best AAA season. Peaking at 26 is not unusual, and this might well be as good as it gets for him.

[Postseason2006]

Where do you get your information from? LuCroy a reserve and Nelson "little value"? Are you even aware that Nelson was our Minor League player of the year at one time? My god....

[bamberger]

Since this is the first year in many that the hand (broken hamate bone) is not bothering Nelson. I wouldn't dismiss his good year as simply "peaking". If they're smart, they'll keep him until they can see what he can do at the MLB level or at least get something useful for him in a trade.