What we know at the All-Star Break

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

1) This team has different strengths versus last years team. I think our bullpen was a huge strength in the first half last year (Cordero, Turnbow, and Wise were lights out), whereas they crumbled in the 2nd Half. Our bullpen hasn't been better than average this year, but with the addition of CC, Suppan/McClung being pushed to the pen, and possibly another arm being acquired to replace Mota, i think our relief pitching should improve in the 2nd half, especially if Gagne picks it up.

 

Our starting pitching was a HUGE weakness during our collapse in August, though this year we're heading to the break with a healthy Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, and an experienced Manny Parra sporting a swagger. Bush is pitching much better, and we now have the luxury of choosing the hot hand between McClung, Suppan, and CV.

 

2) Our offense was largely dependent on Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun for most of the year. Despite Fielder having a dud of a season and Braun being in a mini-slump the past month, the Brewers have been using hot streaks from Hardy, Branyan, Hart, Kapler, Kendall, and even of late, Hall to keep going. If anything it shows us that we can still have an amazing offense even without an amazing season from Prince Fielder.

 

3) Ned Yost might be turning the corner. He's done a good job lately getting starters out before they implode. If he can learn to play the hot hand in the bullpen rather that his "7th inning guy, 8th inning guy, etc) he won't be finding ways for us to lose. As mentioned in another thread, he's done a nice job with the 3T0/Hall, and if he can spell Cameron/Weeks a bit, our offense should continue to put up atleast 4-5 runs on a consistent basis.

 

4) The team is doing a great job of sharing the success/spotlight this season. Hart/Braun making the AS game after Fielder/Hardy did last season further validates their play and should keep them hungry for success. I think the trading pieces are there to replace Sheets/CC in the offseason, but that will require trading Prince/some of our top prospects. As such, locking up Hardy/Hart have to be a huge priority, maybe as early as the AS Break as their replacements will be 4-5 years away should we trade the Gillespe and Escobars of the world for a Greinke/Lincecum/Cain type. With two solid seasons in a row for both Hart/Hardy, i think they've proven they are worth making a commitment to.

 

5) Mark A is committed to winning. I expect attendance and TV viewership, merchandise sales, and general fan interest to continue to snowball as the casual fans continue to wake up to the fact that our team has become quite good and our ownership is actually financially committed to being a winner.

 

I think Mark A has proven that he is willing to carry a $90-$100m payroll to field a winner, and if we play our cards right (sign Hart/Hardy) trade for a replacement for Sheets and/or CC, or potentially replace Fielder with a cheaper Gamel to sign a market value Sheets,we can continue to sustain our rise to the top of the national league.

 

Food for thought. Over the next five years, who has more marketing value? Sheets or Fielder? I think demeanor, attitude, injury history, futue injury potential, and overall value should be factors in analyzing this.

 

GO CREW

[Team Canada]

I think calling Prince's season a dud is overstating it a bit. If his BA were a little higher, he'd be having a fine season, and still may end up with one, even if he doesn't hit 50 HR.

[lcbj68c]

I think we know that the playoffs are ours to lose. If we win more games down the stretch than St. Louis, stay within 3 wins of the Mets & Marlins, we'll have October baseball at Miller Park.

[obobo55]

I think the trading pieces are there to replace Sheets/CC in the offseason, but that will require trading Prince/some of our top prospects. As such, locking up Hardy/Hart have to be a huge priority, maybe as early as the AS Break as their replacements will be 4-5 years away should we trade the Gillespe and Escobars of the world for a Greinke/Lincecum/Cain type. With two solid seasons in a row for both Hart/Hardy, i think they've proven they are worth making a commitment to.

 

Interesting you say this, as i was looking at it in the completely opposite way...

 

I love JJ and Corey, and think Prince is a fine option to have at 1B for the next three years. BUT all three of them look to be replaceable as early as next year. I was talking to my Dad today and speculated about how fans would react if the Crew won the World Series and proceeded to lose Sheets & Sabathia, then deal away Prince, Hardy, and Hart for pitching help and other pieces. I an sure most would scream bloody murder and curse management for having a "fire-sale", but I don't necessarily think it would hurt that badly and may turn out to be better in the long run.

 

What would a .850 OPS SS--still in arby--bring on the market? What about an all-star OF who may be able to play CF that puts up .850+ numbers and terrorizes the basepaths--also still in arby? Then throw in perhaps the biggest slugger in the game? I know aces aren't cheap but I have to think that we could reload the staff using those chips.

 

I'm not saying that this is something the Brewers should do. I want Corey and JJ to be here long-term if it is at all possible. But if their demands are too high, I could see this happening and as long as Melvin made good deals I don't believe it would hurt the team all that much. Nelson is IMO ready to play 1B at the major league level and could provide near what Fielder has given us this year. Escobar from all I have heard is an upgrade defensively at SS, we would likely suffer some growing pains with his bat though. Gamel might be an upgrade over Corey offensively, not sure how he would play in the OF at this point but I would appreciate his LH stick in the lineup.

 

The way I build a team is to pay premium dollar for my pitching staff and for good hitters at tough defensive positions. If the Brewers determine that Corey can play CF and Hardy can shift to 2B, they are both very good candidates for long extensions. I just don't want to pay premium dollars at 1B, RF, or left as you can generally find a stick there fairly cheap.

 

Again, I am all in favor of signing Hart and Hardy to deals, but the prospects we have knocking on the door make them tradeable if their demands are too high. It will be a very interesting offseason to be sure.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

We have to pay somebody though. I'm sick of the Brewers having "potential", and i want production. Think of how many prospects didn't pan out over the past decade. We have good/great playerse in Hart, Hardy, and Braun, and i think that needs to be "our core". I'd imagine Corey Hart shifts to CF once we decide to bring up one of our younger OF, and Gamel figures to replace the platoon at third (or OF if he can't play defense).

 

I agree that signing Prince for mucho $$$$ isn't smart when we have other options at first. Pretty much, our odds of one of our 1B options panning out is very high since any bat will essentially pl ay first. That said, i think trading Hart/Hardy could create bigger holes if their replacements don't have a very high success ratio. In the end, i'd rather us lock up our core, get good cheap production from 1B, and trade for as many Arby or Pre-Arby starting pitchers as possibe.

 

Would i trade Hart & Hardy for a pitcher like Lincecum... sure..... but i've give up Escobar & Gillespe far quicker for a top pitcher than i would Hart/Hardy. If we can sign Hart & Hardy to 4-5 year deals, the 6 of the top 62 this year and 5 of the top 37 next year should more than likely provide viable replacements when Hart/Hardy are 31-32 and want "elite money".

[TooLiveBrew]

One thing I think we should note is how good the bench has been this season. Kapler has turned out to be a great signing, Counsell has had a solid season, Rivera hasn't hurt us in the few games he's played, and Dillon has been good.

 

Not too far in the past, those are all guys that would have started or had the chance to start for us.

[cwolf2012]

I think one of Weeks, Hardy, and Escobar should probably be moved in the offseason. If it's Weeks, move JJ to 2B, bring up Escobar. If it's JJ or Escobar, then it's pretty self-explanatory. I tend to like hitting a LOT more than defense, so if JJ can show that he can maintain a .280/.350/.450 line, I'd be more inclined to move Escobar. I see Escobar as a .300/.325/.375 kind of hitter, which just screams TGJ. If JJ maintains his current line for the rest of the season, I'd be VERY inclined to sell high on him. His current statline would garner a very good young pitcher in exchange, or a well-established #3 starter.

 

I think we should make a decision about Gamel fairly soon on whether we really want him at 3B or not. I think he would obviously be most valuable if he is competent defensively at 3B, but I don't have much hope for that. If we want to stick with him at 3B, then I say keep Prince for at least one more full season, then reevaluate our 1B status. If he ends up at 1st, I'd say move Fielder near the deadline next year for pitching and bring Gamel up from AAA.

 

Hart should remain a Brewer for sure. He'd certainly be valuable in a trade, but we don't have LaPorta burning up his backside any more, and there really isn't any need to force him to center with Brantley in AA.

 

The only question right now is catcher, and it certainly looks like Kendall will be sufficient for at least one more season, and then Salome will be ready.

[TooLiveBrew]

There are serious questions about Salome's D behind the plate from what I've seen. I don't think we yet know for certain what the C situation will be like past Kendall.

 

EDIT: Small sample alert (20 G, 73 AB), but Jonathan Lucroy's line so far in the very pitcher-friendly FSL: .329/.395/.562/.967. Wow! I was excited by his selection on draft day last year, but I'm even more excited to see him progressing well -- to this point.

 

 

I see Escobar as a .300/.325/.375 kind of hitter, which just screams TGJ.

 

I'm not very familiar with Escobar, but it might be a bit early to say that we know what we've got with him. You may turn out to be 100% correct, though -- 20 BB over 393 AB certainly isn't much progress (for reference, Gamel's had 38 over 376 AB), but Alcides actually has made some progress in that regard, and he's only 21 at Double-A. Even then, with defense as good as his, that .700 MLB OPS might still play.

 

Time will tell, and I'm really looking forward to how Escobar performs in the second half of 2008, and the early stages of 2009. He'd get bumped to Triple-A if he sustains the success he's had at Huntsville, correct? (.333/.362/.443/.805) Could that conceivably happen this season?

[nate82]

Time will tell, and I'm really looking forward to how Escobar performs in the second half of 2008, and the early stages of 2009. He'd get bumped to Triple-A if he sustains the success he's had at Huntsville, correct? (.333/.362/.443/.805) Could that conceivably happen this season?

Why bump him up to Triple-A if the pitching is better at the Double-A level?

 

[FVBrewerFan]

I think one of Weeks, Hardy, and Escobar should probably be moved in the offseason. If it's Weeks, move JJ to 2B, bring up Escobar. If it's JJ or Escobar, then it's pretty self-explanatory. I tend to like hitting a LOT more than defense, so if JJ can show that he can maintain a .280/.350/.450 line, I'd be more inclined to move Escobar. I see Escobar as a .300/.325/.375 kind of hitter, which just screams TGJ. If JJ maintains his current line for the rest of the season, I'd be VERY inclined to sell high on him. His current statline would garner a very good young pitcher in exchange, or a well-established #3 starter.

If Hardy is moved, 3B makes more sense to me. Limited range and strong arm translates better for 3B than 2B. I am completely open to trading Weeks. Not just for the sake of trading him, I would expect good value in return. But I wouldn't trade any of them due to a perceived log jam that is a year or two away.

[datrain711]

1. this team is really racking up the strikeouts. I think I saw we have 6 of the top 35-40 guys in the NL
2. We need to get better situational hitting. this is no shock, as the Brewers have always needed this.
3. We are in serious need of a dominant bullpen guy. Riske, Mota, and Gagne have been gas cans most of the season.
4. We need to hope we don't have an extended power outage, because this team is going to win as long as the homers keep flying out of the park.

[logan82]

The approach with our minor leagues seem a lot like high school sports to me. You have a player or two that are further advanced than the rest and play for varsity right away, but for the most part everybody plays together for a couple years until they are all playing together their senior year on varsity. I think it helps team cohesion. Not that it necessarily helps them play better, but they get along.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why bump him up to Triple-A if the pitching is better at the Double-A level?

 

Well that's part of what I'm asking.

[LouisEly]

If Hardy is moved, 3B makes more sense to me.

 

Honestly, I never thought of this, and it is not a bad idea long term at all. But Hardy will have to prove that he can put up a .800 OPS consistently to stay there. The Hardy of the 2nd half of last year and the first two months of this year I don't think will cut it at 3B, but if he can stay over .800 OPS than it is a heck of an idea. Maybe our long-term 3B solution is right under our nose.

[logan82]

I don't understand why we would want to move a guy from SS to 2B if his biggest weakness is range, not his throwing arm. Especially when he would be on the same side of the infield as Fielder.

[Brew Guzzler]

Is Hardy's range that bad? below average for a shortstop?

 

I never thought about Hardy at 3B, but it's an intriguing idea. He definitely has the arm, but he needs to show down the stretch this year that his bat can remain consistent if we are going to lock him up.

[dadofandrew]

2B do not need the range SS's have, partially because the throw is so much longer. They can play a lot deeper at 2B to cover more ground. Loretta was always a weak SS, but a decent 2B.

[Darnell Junior]

I always kind of figured we'd just shift JJ over when Alcides was ready. I don't really like trading anyone except maybe Prince, but even then I think we should wait a year or two. We still have a lot of options in the minors to go and get an arm this offseason.