2nd Half Schedule Strength?

[zzzmanwitz]

Instead of showing all those columns , all you really need to show is opponent win% and pythagorean record, IMO.

How do I calculate pythagorean record. I will eliminate the rest of the rows.

[rluzinski]

There are many versions out there. For simplicity, I would just use Jame's' pythagorean:

 

EXPECTED WIN% = RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2)

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

There are many versions out there. For simplicity, I would just use Jame's' pythagorean:

 

EXPECTED WIN% = RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2)

 

Just like the Pythagorean Theorem for calculating the hypotenuse of a triangle. I miss math class. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

 

 

[zzzmanwitz]

You ask and you shall receive.

	Opp. Win%	Opp. Pyth. Win%
Los Angeles	0.454	0.457
Arizona	0.463	0.465
New York	0.487	0.483
Philly	0.486	0.483
Chicago	0.503	0.485
Milwaukee	0.489	0.485
St. Louis	0.507	0.504
Florida	0.504	0.522

[splitterpfj]

If the Brewers stick to a 5-man rotation, and do not skip anyone along the way, here's the breakdown for Sabathia and Sheets:

 

3 at SF - both will pitch

4 at St L - both will pitch

3 vs Hou - neither

4 vs Chi - both

3 at Atl - both

3 at Cin - neither

4 vs Wash - both

3 at SD - both

3 at LA - neither

3 vs Hou - both

3 vs Pitt - Sabathia

2 at St L - Sheets

3 at Pitt - Sabathia

3 vs NY - Sheets

4 vs SD - both

3 vs Cin - Sabathia

4 at Phil - Sheets

3 at Chi - both

3 at Cin - Sabathia

3 vs Pitt - Sheets

3 vs Chi - both

 

One, "home neither", two, "road neithers", and the Mets and Phillies will both miss CC, but both get Sheets.

 

Sabathia and Sheets will start six of the ten games vs the Cubs, Parra will start two, the 4 and 5 spots get one each.

 

Sabathia and Sheets will start three of the six games vs the Cardinals, Parra will start one, 4 and 5 get one each.

 

The Mets will get Sheets, Parra, and the 4 spot.

 

The Phillies will get everyone but CC.

 

If it's down to the last two games, that's Sabathia, then Sheets to close it out.

 

Mr Parra...don't look away...you have five starts coming vs the Cubs, Cardinals, Mets and Phillies.....YOU MATTER, Sir.

[LouisEly]

Perhaps the biggest advantage is how the pitching matchups will play out right out of the gate. The Brewers start with Sabathia and Sheets in SF, then get them during the last two games at STL, they skip the home series vs. Houston (thus Parra and Bush get Houston at home where they are more effective), then Sabathia and Sheets go the first two games of the home series vs the Cubs (with Parra and Bush getting the last two at home). Sabathia and Sheets avoid a direct matchup with Lincecum (Parra gets him at SF).

 

These last two weeks of July are going to be huge. They need to take advantage of these pitching matchups and the games vs. CHI & STL.

[brewerjamie15]

Unfortunately for us and Ned Yost, most of the coaches he will be facing are much, much smarter than he is.

[zzzmanwitz]

Update through July 22nd's games

 

	Opp. Win%	Opp. Pyth. Win%	Home Games	Road Games
Arizona	0.459	0.459	30	32
Los Angeles	0.455	0.461	32	30
New York	0.486	0.482	34	28
Milwaukee	0.485	0.483	33	29
Philly	0.483	0.484	31	31
Chicago	0.509	0.488	32	30
St. Louis	0.511	0.509	28	32
Florida	0.502	0.515	30	32

Edit: Added Home/Away games.

[Sheets4theHOF]

that's awesome zzz thanks. could you add home/road games remaining as well? with the crazy splits for the cubs and most of the mlb i think it would be an important thing to know.

[zzzmanwitz]

Done!

[LUKE232323]

If anyone wants to see it in added form (going off of zzz's grid), our remaining SOS is 3077-3258 (.486).

[rluzinski]

So, the straight win% difference between the Cubs and Brewers give the Crew a 1.5 game advantage. Pythag says less than half a win. I'd be more inclinded to go with pythag, personally.

[naivin]

So, without pushing any buttons on the calculator, were that table to hold up, factoring in home/road, the Brewers should win the division by 2-3 games. Done deal. Home field advantage here we come!

[rluzinski]

Well, you might want to get the calulator out, because I get nothing close to that. How are you trying to figure it?

[splitterpfj]

"Why I think the Brewers have a scheduling advantage over the Cubs"

 

Brewers v Cubs: Remaining Schedules

 

Head to Head - 10 games, 7 in Mil - Advantage Brewers - 70% of these are in Milwaukee - check the Cubs' road record vs the Brewers' home record. The run differential will show the Cubs with an advantage - but I don't buy it. We're 101 games in, and one team has one more victory than the other team. The Cubs may be more likely to blow a team out on any given day, but that has not made them more likely to take two out of three.

 

VS Common Opponents

 

St Louis - Brewers 3 games, Cubs 9 - Advantage Brewers

New York - Brewers 3 games, Cubs 4 - Advantage Brewers (in addition, Brewers home - Cubs road)

Phil. - 4 games each, Brewers road, Cubs home - Advantage Cubs

Cincinnati - Brewers 9 games, Cubs 6 - Advantage Cubs

Atlanta - 3 each, both road - No Advantage

 

OK, this reaches the point where it become advantageous to play the remaining teams more often, because they are the weaker teams. I left the Reds where they are because I think they're going to be a very tough team to predict the rest of the way, and because the Brewers play 6 of their remaining 9 on the road, including one series with neither Sabathia nor Sheets.

 

Pittsburgh - Brewers 9 games, Cubs 6 - Advantage Brewers

Houston - Brewers 6 games, Cubs 9 - Advantage Cubs

Washington - Brewers 4 games, Cubs 3 - Advantage Brewers

 

REMAINING SCHEDULES:

 

Florida - Brewers, 0 games, Cubs 7 games - Advantage Brewers

Dodgers - Brewers 3, Cubs 0 - No Advantage - tough call, it's in LA, with no Sheets or Sabathia...but the Brewers are clearly the better team

San Diego - Brewers 7 games, Cubs 0 games - Advantage Brewers

 

The Cubs should have a much bigger lead in the division at this point - but they don't, and that has created an opportunity for Milwaukee. With just one game separating the two teams in the standings, the Cubs have three significant factors working against them.

 

1. The 7/3 home-road split for the Brewers in the head to head games.

2. Six additional games vs St Louis - the Cardinals are still a team with a .553 winning percentage.

3. Marlins - Padres. The Cubs have 7 with Florida, while the Brewers have 7 with the Padres. The difference here is simply enormous - for both teams, this represents one in nine of the remaining games, and the difference in winning percentage is .525 to .373 - 152 points!

 

It shouldn't be so, the Cubs should be up by seven games in the division right now, but the fact is - the door is wide open for Milwaukee to win the NL Central.

 

When I break all of this down, I think the Cubs may wind up having to root for the Reds, Dodgers and Padres to derail Milwaukee, while they deal with St Louis and Florida, in preparation for the season finish....in Milwaukee.

 

Which side would you bet on?

[zzzmanwitz]

Quick Update...

 

	Opp. Win%	Opp. Pyth. Win%	Home Games	Road Games
Los Angeles	0.455	0.455	32	29
Arizona	0.457	0.455	29	32
New York	0.482	0.475	32	28
Milwaukee	0.483	0.481	33	27
Philly	0.481	0.482	31	29
Chicago	0.508	0.486	31	29
St. Louis	0.511	0.507	26	32
Florida	0.501	0.509	29	31

[TooLiveBrew]

Mmmmm... most home games remaining of any playoff-hunting team. Gotta love that.

[zzzmanwitz]

Through the games ending on July 27th.

 

	Opp. Win%	Opp. Pyth. Win%	Home Games	Road Games
Arizona	0.463	0.460	29	29
Los Angeles	0.462	0.465	29	29
New York	0.477	0.475	29	28
Philly	0.480	0.480	28	29
Milwaukee	0.482	0.483	30	27
Chicago	0.504	0.486	28	29
St. Louis	0.508	0.506	26	29
Florida	0.496	0.510	29	28

[TauPentaRei]

This could have gone in any number of threads, but I chose this one over a few other valid options.

 

I will not yet allow myself to utter the phrase that rhymes with "shwilling to shmettle shmor shme shmild shmard". Given the sheer chunk of the schedule that is left and that the Crew's schedule is just too advantageous: can't do it. Out of the 11 of 14 line items (ranked teams) below that are applicable, I see a distinct edge to the Crew on 8 of them. If the 6 head to headers goes 4 - 2 in the Brewers favor, the schedule strength can chip in the other 3, no?

 

	50 to go
	6 head to head
	44 GL
Crew		Cubs
@ 4	PHI	4 v
0	FLA	3 @
v 3	NYM	4 @
0	ATL	3 @
v 4	WAS	3 v
@ 2	STL	9 v, @, v
v 3	HOU	9 v, v, @
v, @, v 9	PIT	3 @
@, v, @ 9	CIN	6 v, @
0	AZ	0
@ 3	LAD	0
0	COL	0
0	SF	0
@, v 7	SD	0
23	Home	22
21	Away	22

[rluzinski]

It's a neat way to look at it but I don't think it really adds much clarity to the situation. I think you are right to say that the Brewers have the easier remaining schedule but what is the actual net expected advantage over the Cubs?

 

Let's just look at the aggregate opponent win% from the remaining schedule of each team:

 

Brewers: .476

Cubs: .496

 

Basically, the Brewers should win about 1 game more than their simple "on pace for" would suggest. Simulating the remaining schedule for each team, I get 91 wins for the Brewers and 97 wins for the Cubs. Brewers finish with more wins than the Cubs about 10% of the time and finish tied with them about 4% of the time. My very simple simulation agrees pretty well with baseballprospectus.

 

As we've seen twice since the all star break, things can change quickly. Right now, though, the wild card race looks to be the much easier avenue to the playoffs.

[zzzmanwitz]

As of Games through August 10th.

 

	Opp. Win%	Opp. Pyth. Win%	Home Games	Road Games
Arizona	0.465	0.459	22	22
Los Angeles	0.462	0.463	22	23
Milwaukee	0.483	0.482	23	21
Chicago	0.500	0.488	19	25
New York	0.484	0.489	23	22
St. Louis	0.502	0.490	20	22
Philly	0.484	0.494	22	23
Florida	0.496	0.506	22	22

[splitterpfj]

Short of being placed in the NL West, the schedule favors the Brewers about as much as you could hope for.

[rluzinski]

In 3 1/2 days, the Brewers' SOS will be .493, so let's not get too excited. About an extra .3 expected wins over the last 40 games.

[zzzmanwitz]

That is true Russ. Chicago does play a tougher opponent in Pyth when they get Atlanta. But STL gets an easy Opponent in Florida so their SOS goes up as well.

[razzzorsharp]

Brewers go .500 the rest of the way they got 89 wins and and 82% chance of playoffs. One more win and they got a 91% chance. What that means to me is this, win today and go .500 the rest of the way and finish with 90 wins and I am content. That should get them in and if not another team deserved it more.