2nd Half Schedule Strength?

[Leinie Lodge]

Second Half we play Cubs 10 times (7 @ The Keg + 3 @ The Trough) and Cards 6 times @ Busch.

 

Curious overall, among Brew, Cubs, Cards ... who plays the toughest 2nd half schedule?

 

ESPN's Strength of Schedule within RPI is only for games already played ?

[splitterpfj]

The Cubs have two stretches after that break that could derail them:

 

They come out of the break with six on the road, followed by four vs the Marlins, and then four in Milwaukee - if they come through that in good shape, I think August, and the first week of September are generally favorable for them.

 

Take a look at the Cubs' schedule after Sept. 7. Of their final 19 games, only a 3-game set at Houston is not against the Brewers, Mets or Cardinals. They could end up crawling to the finish, rather than sprinting through it.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/schedule/index.jsp?c_id=chc&m=9&y=2008

 

The Cardinals start with four vs San Diego, but then it's four vs Milwaukee, three at NY, and four at Atlanta to close July - and then Philly and the Dodgers at home for their first six games in August - that's a tough stretch. St Louis has a lot of games left with the Reds, and if they're close at the end, they finish with seven home games, including the final three with Cincy. The Marlins and Cardinals could trip each other up, they still play each other seven times - four in FL.

 

I think the Brewers have it the best of the three teams, but there are two danger spots. The first is right away to finish July, a stretch which includes four at St Louis, and four vs the Cubs. If the Brewers make it through that stretch in good shape, August certainly looks favorable, unless they pull the traditional west coast flop. The Brewers open Sept. with nine at home, (the first three with the Mets), and then comes the one other really ugly spot on the schedule - ten on the road, starting with four in Philly, then three in Chicago. As with St Louis, the Brewers finish up with two home series', including the final three with the Cubs.

 

Chicago certainly has the toughest finish of the three, and I think Milwaukee has the most favorable schedule of the three, with St Louis facing a test over the first 3-4 weeks after the break.

 

This should be a wild finish!

[rluzinski]

Someone should add up the win/loss record and run differential for the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals remaining schedule.

[lcbj68c]

Nice analysis Splitter. Hard to really follow that up except to say I think they need to keep their eyes on the prize (Division Championship). If they continue to push and come up short, they should be the second best team in the division. Florida does not scare me. The Mets do a little bit, because they do have talent. I think the WC comes down to the Central2 vs East2.

[bucks2281]

I see the Mets as a huge threat. That series between Milwaukee and the Mets on Sept. 1-3 will be huge.

 

The Mets have a few home games against St. Louis and Philadelphia, but their August schedule is filled with home games against the Houstons and San Diegos of the world and road games at Washington and Pittsburgh. They have a tough eight game road trip in Philadelphia (2), Florida (3), and Milwaukee (3) in late Aug/early Sep. They have 15 home games in September, including a potentially huge 4 game set against the Cubs.

 

Call me crazy, but New York's schedule sets them up for success. They have no remaining games on the West Coast, and leave the Eastern Time Zone only twice (Houston, Milwaukee). They're going to get fat after feasting on the Nationals, Pirates, and Padres.

[lcbj68c]

Yeah, the mets head to head does not scare me. It's at home, so if we do fall flat and win only 1 game, it's only a 1 game swing in the standings. It's those games against Washington, the Braves, Florida, Pittsburg, that have me worried. They've already won 6 in a row and are charging. They still have a shot to win 88-90 games, which is what the crew is on pace to win.

[splitterpfj]

I'll dig deeper into this over the weekend, (maybe I'll write an article on this), but as of this moment, here's what faces each of the playoff contenders after the All-Star Break.

 

Games remaining vs teams with winning records as of tonight's games:

 

Florida 38-26-3 (AZ is at .500)

Chicago 34-30-3

Philadelphia 30-35

New York 30-37

St Louis 28-31-7

Milwaukee 23-44

Los Angeles 14-40-13

Arizona 13-54

 

OK, the Dodgers are one game under .500, while AZ is right at .500, and they play each other 13 times - it's basically the same strength of schedule, (which is to say "garbage", because most of it is against their own weak division). My bet is, one of those teams goes 7-6 in the head-to-head games, and neither team really gets into the wild card race.

 

Marlins - good luck, you not only have the Phillies and Mets to deal with - you have the toughest schedule in the lot.

 

Cubbies - you're next, don't relax just yet!

 

Mets and Phillies - basically even, both teams have an edge on the Marlins the rest of the way, but no edge over one another. The loser here in the division race should absolutely be a factor in the wild card chase.

 

Cardinals - very similar to the Phillies and Mets, if they can maintain the pace they've set, they might be able to get in there.

 

Brewers - well, well - the most favorable remaining schedule outside of the NL West. Very nice.

 

Folks, look that over, among leading contenders for the NL Central, and the wild card, the Brewers have the fewest remaining games vs teams that have winning records to this point ( I did not count anyone's remaining series prior to the break). Even if you give the Cubs a slight break, and change AZ's record to below .500, that would leave the Cubs at 34-33, eleven fewer games remaining vs teams with losing records.

---

[bucks2281]

The Brewers do have a favorable upcoming schedule, but the road games have a potential to be brutal. They have 9 games remaining in the state of California (we all know how the Brewers perform on the West Coast), 4 games in Philadelphia, 3 in Chicago, 3 in Atlanta, and 6 in St. Louis. For the most part, the home schedule is a cupcake, but we expect the Brewers to win at home, no matter the opponent. Granted, the Sabathia deal makes me feel a bit better about the road games, but that's a serious area of concern.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I remember reading something a few days ago that the Cubs' and Cards' remaining schedules averaged around .500 between the two teams, and Milwaukee's was .477.

 

We said it earlier this season, Milwaukee got the meat of their schedule out of the way early - the fact that they're 4 games behind the Cubs after losing their 2nd best starter after getting only 3 starts from him and after going through a brutal stretch of early road games is a good sign. Still, the Brewers do face alot of stumbling blocks on the road the rest of the season - I'm hoping the addition of CC really improves their chances at road success, since it tends to help when a top 10 mlb pitcher is starting for your team, no matter where the game is played.

[pitchleague]

boy, when was the last time we did our West Coast swing so late in the year? The SD, LA, SF trip is usually in April or May (or so it seems).

[owbc]

I agree with the concerns about the Mets. It only took them a week to get 3 games behind us, and they are very, very talented.

[Team Canada]

Wow, that is a brutal Sept. for the Cubs. Not that I'm complaining. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TauPentaRei]

man, what a difference one game (okay, 2 games with the Giants winning @ Wrigley) is going to make for my psyche for the entirety of all-star break...

 

I see a BIG scheduling advantage for the Crew in the second half... my highly scientific analysis as follows (showing a CREW+6 advantage):

 

Head to Head:

7 games @ Miller, 3 games @ Wrigley

Edge: CREW++

 

against Cardinals

Cubs v3, @3, v3 --- Crew @4, @2

Edge: CREW+

 

against Phillies

Cubs v4 --- Crew @4

Edge: CUBS+

 

against Mets

Cubs @4 --- Crew v3

Edge CREW++

 

against Pirates / Nationals

Cubs v3, @3, v3 --- Crew v4, @3, v3, v3

Edge: CREW++

 

AND, I think CC is only going to get better and Harden only worse.

[Glennron]

man, what a difference one game (okay, 2 games with the Giants winning @ Wrigley) is going to make for my psyche for the entirety of all-star break...

 

I see a BIG scheduling advantage for the Crew in the second half... my highly scientific analysis as follows (showing a CREW+6 advantage):

 

against Cardinals

Cubs v3, @3, v3 --- Crew @4, @2

Edge: CREW+

I really don't see how this is any advantage to the Brewers. The Cubs are awesome at home, it'll be surprising if they don't win at least 4 of those 6 games. The Brewers will probably be lucky to split the 6 games at St. Louis. This is a big advantage to the Cubs.

[Brewcrewin07]

The tone will be set in SF coming right out of the break....They are going to have to face Cain and Lincecum. The Giants offense doesn't scare me especially against Sheets and CC. If the Brewers can somehow manage to win the series(which would mean beating one of those two), that could propel them to great things the 2nd half. But, as I said in another thread, the end of July is truly make or break for the Crew. 4 @ STL and 4 @ home vs. The Cubs. Those two series will truly determine where this team is headed the rest of the year.

[logan82]

Glennron wrote:

I really don't see how this is any advantage to the Brewers. The Cubs are awesome at home, it'll be surprising if they don't win at least 4 of those 6 games. The Brewers will probably be lucky to split the 6 games at St. Louis. This is a big advantage to the Cubs.

I don't know if it is an advantage, but when the Cubs and Cards play each other we gain a game on one of them as long as we win.

[zzzmanwitz]

	Opp. Wins	Opp. Loses	Opp. RS	Opp. RA	Opp. Win%	Avg. Opp. RS	Avg. Opp. RA	Avg. Opp. Run Diff.	Home Games	Road Games
Los Angeles	2898	3489	27417	29914	0.454	4.293	4.684	-0.391	32	35
Arizona	2956	3425	27408	29414	0.463	4.295	4.610	-0.314	35	32
Philly	3051	3231	27895	28833	0.486	4.440	4.590	-0.149	31	35
New York	3111	3273	28935	29955	0.487	4.532	4.692	-0.160	35	32
Milwaukee	3119	3260	28859	29711	0.489	4.524	4.658	-0.134	33	34
Chicago	3211	3170	29227	30091	0.503	4.580	4.716	-0.135	32	35
Florida	3222	3173	29606	28357	0.504	4.630	4.434	0.195	35	32
St. Louis	3180	3097	29003	28796	0.507	4.621	4.588	0.033	34	32

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Maybe I'm reading that incorrectly, but it looks like the Cubs have an easier schedule in the 2nd half based on run differential. Am I correct?

[zzzmanwitz]

that is correct. even though it is basically even.

[rluzinski]

The Cubs' opponents have a combined pthygorean win% of something like .487. That's a 79 win team. That's basically identical to the Brewers. Couple that with the small difference in opponent win% and it's basically a tie.

 

This is why you don't use "with a winning record" splits. It just too course.

 

EDIT: I forgot to say, great work, zzzman. Thanks for the hard work.

[zzzmanwitz]

I'll try to update it every week or so to keep us in tune with what the frontrunners will be facing the rest of the season.

[rluzinski]

Instead of showing all those columns , all you really need to show is opponent win% and pythagorean record, IMO.

[splitterpfj]

I have a question for zzzman.

 

When you added up opponents wins, losses, etc - did you account for how many games a team has left vs that opponent? For example, if the Brewers have 6 games left with a team that has a .450 winning percentage, and 4 games left with a team that has a .550 winning percentage - would you then count that as an overall winning percentage of .500, or did you account for the two extra games vs the weaker opponent?

 

If you just combine the two winning percentages, you get an opponents' average of .500, but if you factor 4 games x .550, and 6 games x .450, you get an opponents' average of .490.

 

I'm grateful to you for the work you put into this, I just want to make sure I understand what I'm reading.

 

 

Thanks.

[rluzinski]

I'm sure the average is weighted by # games.

[zzzmanwitz]

I took every game played and added it in. So if we have a three game series with chicago, it adds their info 3 times.