Harden v Sheets

[splitterpfj]

I read an interesting article today, which reviewed the Cubs' trade for Rich Harden, and its impact on the NL Central race. The author, Rick Morrisey, was very fair - openly admitting that the Brewers got the best man available when they dealt for Sabathia, and acknowledging the possibilities for the Brewers.

 

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-080708-morrissey-rich-harden-chicago-cubs,1,7633176.column

 

Near the end of the piece, he made a statement which I found very interesting:

 

The Cubs-Brewers showdown could end up being a battle of attrition. Milwaukee's other star pitcher, Ben Sheets, has a history of injuries that makes Harden's look like amateur hour.

 

Sheets' injury history makes Harden's look like amateur hour? OK, any Brewers fan will tell you Ben has missed too much time, that's not a news story, but is it fair to say Ben has been less durable than Rich Harden? My first reaction was, NO WAY, so I looked into it.

 

Sheets broke into the major leagues in 2001, pitching 151 1/3 innings. Over the next three seasons, Ben started 102 games (34 each year), for a total of 674 1/3 innings pitched (IP). During this three-year run, Sheets averaged 34 starts, 225 IP per season.

 

Harden broke into the major leagues in 2003, pitching 74 2/3 innings. The next season, he threw 189.2 IP, in 31 starts. This is the only time in his career that Harden has topped 128 IP in a season.

 

From 2005 through 2007, Sheets did suffer one significant injury, also an inner ear disorder, and a series of unrelated maladies, which caused him to miss significant time. Over these three seasons, Sheets averaged 21 starts per season, with an average of 134.2 IP. There is no doubt, Ben missed a lot of time during these seasons.

 

From 2005 through 2007, Harden was a 200 IP horse - if you're willing to combine all three seasons. In this three year period, when Sheets provided 404 IP, Rich Harden gave the A's a total of 200.1 IP.

 

So far in 2008, Sheets has started 17 games, missing only one start, while covering 117 IP.

 

So far in 2008, Harden has started 13 games, covering 77 IP, and was on the disabled list for a month.

 

Sheets has 16 career complete games, including three this season - Harden has 2 complete games in his career - none since 2005.

 

Mr Morrissey, thank you for a fair article, with an accurate assessment of both trades, but you are wrong, it seems that Mr Harden's injury history does, in fact, make Mr Sheets' injury history look like amateur hour.

[brewerfan82]

That is absolutely ridiculous.

 

Another way to look at it is if you consider 34 starts a full season of work (and 18 up to this point this season), beginning with their second seasons (presumably their first full time as a starter), Sheets has missed 40 starts in his last six and a half seasons compared to Harden missing 78 starts in four and a half seasons. Sheets has been disappointing on the injury front, but Harden's been worse and it's not even close.

[naivin]

If he is referring to the number of different injuries, he's absolutely correct. If he is talking about IP, he has no idea what he's talking about.

[Schlitz001]

If he is referring to the number of different injuries, he's absolutely correct. If he is talking about IP, he has no idea what he's talking about.

What are the number of different injuries? Yesterday during the Brewers broadcast BA repeated a couple times that Rich Harden has had 6 different injuries in his 6 years in the majors. That's more than Sheets, but I don't know how accurate it is, but it's a contest I wouldn't want to win.

 

I personally think that Morrisey simply miss typed that sentence. Blame it on poor editing. Or maybe he was looking at this list.

[tysoncbulls423]

Rick Morrissey is an idiot when it comes to baseball period. This line is also a gem...

 

 

Cubs fans should hope Hendry went as far as could, including dangling a Ryan Theriot or two, because Sabathia is head and shoulders and belly above any other pitcher who was available.

 

While the first part is legit, Ryan Theriot having any value to the Indians or as a prospect in general is just laughable. Riot is Eckstein 2.0. He's important to a team's nucleus but has no value what so ever to any other team.

[MillerParkSouth]

wow, that last line is ridiculous. Maybe we should trade Sheets for Theriot!

[crewcrazy]

If he is referring to the number of different injuries, he's absolutely correct. If he is talking about IP, he has no idea what he's talking about.

What are the number of different injuries? Yesterday during the Brewers broadcast BA repeated a couple times that Rich Harden has had 6 different injuries in his 6 years in the majors. That's more than Sheets, but I don't know how accurate it is, but it's a contest I wouldn't want to win.

Anderson said it was 6 DL trips in his 6 year career, but even that doesn't really do justice to the injury problems he's had. I believe those 6 DL trips have come in the last 4 years, as I have been a tortured Harden owner in fantasy baseball, but I could be wrong.

 

[InsomniacInkRoss]

more stats, broken down a different way, and just for the two players traded for

 

Sabathia IP / Complete Games

 

2005 196.2 / 1

2006 192.2 / 6

2007 241.0 / 4

2008 128.0 / 3

 

Harden IP / Complete Games (try not to laugh too hard)

 

2005 128.0 / 2

2006 46.2 / 0

2007 25.2 / 0

2008 77.0 / 0

 

Harden makes Ben Sheets look like Cal Ripken Jr. I am surprised he hasn't fainted from exhaustion yet this year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Morissey's just catering to the audience reading his paper - Cub fans will always view Sheets as on par with the injury problems they had with Wood and Prior, when it couldn't be farther from the truth. Wood and Prior's injuries were almost entirely arm-related, while Sheets had the torn lat and a pile of random, non-arm related injuries that pitchers aren't regularly associated with.

 

Put it this way, Harden's at the stage of his career that Sheets was when he signed his first contract extension with the Brewers, when he was in the middle of logging 200+ innings a season and actually putting up similar numbers to an unbelievable Cy Young season by Randy Johnson. Maybe the overall number of DL stints are comparable, but the comparison should stop there - Harden is much closer to Mark Prior than Sheets from an injury standpoint.

[TauPentaRei]

more stats, broken down a different way, and just for the two players traded for

 

Sabathia IP / Complete Games

 

2005 196.2 / 1

2006 192.2 / 6

2007 241.0 / 4

2008 128.0 / 3

Wow I forgot about that... I assume that includes all the games through the ALCS. That is a ton (relatively) of innings.

 

What's interesting about the Harden situation and the reported dead arm status is Hendry was on the radio talking about:

1) keeping all his pitch counts at 100 or lower

2) spot starting Gaudin / Marshall to get him on a start at 6 or 7 days rest

3) skipping his start all together during some turns

 

I hope CC has got the freshness he needs in late October - or is it early November again?

[berniebrewer4life]

Anderson said it was 6 DL trips in his 6 year career, but even that doesn't really do justice to the injury problems he's had. I believe those 6 DL trips have come in the last 4 years, as I have been a tortured Harden owner in fantasy baseball, but I could be wrong.

 

Crew, i believe you are correct. Since 2005 he has had 6 DL trips, he has had 9 in his entire career.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The 241 IP for Sabathia is WITHOUT playoff innings - there was alot of speculation that his poor postseason ERA had to do with him being burned out during the season. His first 3 starts this year where he got rocked around pretty good were tied to that as well.

 

Honestly, I'm pumped for having C.C., and I hope the Brewers use him as much as possible - he won't be back next year, and some other team can deal with the results of his innings workload when they back the truckload of money up to his door.

[homer]

I'm fairly certain that Harden has had some elbow and/or shoulder problems too which have a greater chance of recurring than a strained lat or vestibular neuritis.

[endaround]

Harden makes AJ Burnett look robust

[nate82]

I was watching Outside the Lines today and they had a stat up that had Harden on the DL 6 times the only current Brewer that was on the DL more than Harden was Gagne with 7. Prior was also on the list with 7 trips to the DL and Wood also on there with 6 trips to the DL.

 

I believe they also had a stat up there that Harden has been on the DL for a total of 365 days. I know it is close to a whole year for the amount of time that Harden has missed.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

At least Sheets can go past the 6th inning on a consistent basis.

[dlk9s]

The 241 IP for Sabathia is WITHOUT playoff innings - there was alot of speculation that his poor postseason ERA had to do with him being burned out during the season. His first 3 starts this year where he got rocked around pretty good were tied to that as well.

How can anybody relate his poor starts in April to being "burned out" in October?

 

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

An interesting question for the Cubs is - Could the Harden deal backfire on the Cubs? Harden is a huge talent and IMO gives the Cubs a big leg up in a playoff series where they were somewhat vulnerable. Zambrano is their only legit ace...now they have Harden. The Cubs look like a certain bet for the playoffs, probably the division, but at worst they slip to the wild card. However, in an effort to save Harden by throwing him out there 5-6 innings per start or a 90-100 pitch count...maybe even skipping some starts, could they burn out an already vulnerable bullpen? Look what they've done to Marmol already. The Cubs bullpen has been a strong point, but so was the Brewers pen at the beginning of last year before the overuse cam back to bite them. That could really hurt the Cubs as the season goes on, even if Harden delivers consistent 6 inning quality starts.

 

For the Brewers, the CC effect was no more evident than yesterday. The guy goes 9 in a huge effort to get the win with the bats slumping late in the homestand. Even if Harden is as effective as CC in a one time start in October, CC greatly improves the Brewers chances of getting there...a taller task for the Brewers given the 5 game deficit to the Cubs and a four way battle for the wild card. Maybe each team made the proper move given where they were and the higher realtive price the Brewers had to pay for CC, but I'm much more sure CC will help us and I could see a scenario where they Harden trade backfires.

[crewcrazy]

I have no doubts that the Cubs aren't done dealing. As much as the Brewers are "going for it" this year, Hendry and the Cubs are going to do everything within their power to prevent the World Series drought from extending past 100 years. In the eyes of many, anything less than a World Series would be a total failure for the Cubs this year, and Hendry's job might be on the line. They're likely to go out and get another arm or two (Burnett is still a possibility, IMO), and maybe another bat for the bench.

[Tbadder]

I think there is a way that the Crew make the playoffs. 1) Harden must go down. I think the chances of this are better than 50/50. But really the Cubs could implode. 2) Dempster's been great, but he could really get a dead arm racking up innings. Being an ex-reliever (even though he was a starter) might cost him down the line. 3) Wood and Marmol get cooked. Abuse in Marmol's case and arm/shoulder problems in Wood's case. That's a lot of ifs, but I think it's plausible.

 

InsomniacInkRoss: Harden IP / Complete Games (try not to laugh too hard)

 

lolololololololololololololol. Sorry I couldn't help it.

[tysoncbulls423]

At least Sheets can go past the 6th inning on a consistent basis.

Would you want Sheets pitching past the 6th inning with a 7-0 lead? Didn't think so. Innings won't be a bigger issue than it already was before with Gallagher in the rotation. Harden is very efficient.

[cwolf2012]

"I think there is a way that the Crew make the playoffs. 1) Harden must go down. I think the chances of this are better than 50/50. But really the Cubs could implode. 2) Dempster's been great, but he could really get a dead arm racking up innings. Being an ex-reliever (even though he was a starter) might cost him down the line. 3) Wood and Marmol get cooked. Abuse in Marmol's case and arm/shoulder problems in Wood's case. That's a lot of ifs, but I think it's plausible. "

 

Plus, you know, the wild card. They could probably make the playoffs with the wild card.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Tbadder - I guess I disagree with your reasons of why the Crew might make the playoffs. I think it has very little to do with how the Cubs perform, outside of our 10 head to head matchup games, and more about how the Brewers play. If the Crew plays up to their full potential, we'll be there regardless of what the Cubs do. I think the Cubs are good enough to make the playoffs. If we do overtake them, it will be because we play that well, not so much a huge collapse by the Cubs. That would put the Cubs in the wild card at least.

 

It's tough for me to see both the Phils and the Mets getting on an epic roll...one of them might win 92+, but I doubt both will. That puts the wild card at a minimum in reach if we play well.

[Postseason2006]

Hardin makes Teddy Higuera looked like Bruce Jenner.

[areacodes]

Would you want Sheets pitching past the 6th inning with a 7-0 lead? Didn't think so. Innings won't be a bigger issue than it already was before with Gallagher in the rotation. Harden is very efficient.

As long as his pitch count is reasonable I would have no problem with Sheets pitching past the 6th with a 7-0 lead as it's not as much about innings as it is about pitch count in my opinion. I also would argue that Harden isn't very efficient if he's already around 100 pitches after only 6 innings.