Cubs acquire Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Gallagher, Patterson, Murton and Donaldson

[crewcrazy]

You people who are saying Melvin got fleeced and the Cubs got a great deal need to give it a rest.

 

This is a RISKY deal for the Cubs.

 

Harden has only pitched 25 innings last year, 46 the year before, and 128 in '05. There are already reports of decreased velocity and he has complained of feeling a dead arm. He has not had freak injuries like Sheets; Harden has had continual shoulder/arm/back issues. He has already been on the DL once this year with guess what... a shoulder muscle strain. Even if his arm does hold up... will he get tired from his lack of pitching the last few years?

 

All that said... Harden is VERY good. His potential is probably better than Sheets, CC, and Big Z. I like the trade for the Cubs, mainly because I love Rich Harden. But don't forget... it is a ballsy move; Harden comes with a lot of risk.

I really don't think it's risky at all. All they gave up for Harden was their #3 pitcher and a bunch of their young back-ups -- nothing they would really miss even if Harden went down. It looks like the Cubs are keeping Marquis in the rotation for the time being, so Gaudin will slip into a long relief role. If Harden goes down, Gaudin can move into the rotation, and they still have Sean Marshall -- like the Brewers, they dealt from depth to improve their rotation. The fact that Harden has a relatively cheap option considering how much talent he has reduces the risk even more, in my opinion. A team like the Cubs has no problem picking up a $7 million option on a guy who's healthy half the year -- if Harden actually stays healthy, I have no doubts that the dude is never leaving Chicago.

[kmcasper23]

A buddy of mine who is a Cubs fan is excited about this deal because he feels that they didn't give up much to make this trade happen. I told him that I would be concerned. Why would Oakland trade their ace who is under contract for the next 1.5 seasons while they are still in the race? The only logical answer could be that he is about to have another injury and they know it. Otherwise they would hold on to him and deal him in the offseason to maximize their deal!

[decktard]

I really don't think it's risky at all. All they gave up for Harden was their #3 pitcher and a bunch of their young back-ups -- nothing they would really miss even if Harden went down.

 

But they have given up trade depth for a starting pitcher. If Harden goes down it is pretty unlikely that the Cubs will be able to acquire another decent starter. They gambled on his upside while choosing not to go with less spectacular but arguably less injury prone options in Burnett, Wolf, or whoever else might have been made available.

 

Edit: And yes, they did get Gaudin... but he has proven nothing. Sure he has been ok so far this year but last year was far from stellar. He's a work in progress.

[homer]

I'll say it again. if the Cubs pitch this guy all of July and August he won't be there for the playoffs, and the Cubbies curse will remain firmly in tact. I'm not afraid of this trade at all. I'm afraid of the LaRussa magic. It's the Cards my friends--they're the ones who have made a pact with the devil. Isn't Wainwright and Carpenter coming back soon. If their rotation becomes a best case scenario we maybe doomed.

Carpenter is due back in mid August. Wainwright at the end of July.

[zzzmanwitz]

Carpenter is due back in mid August. Wainwright at the end of July.

 

I fully expect the Carpenter this season will not be the Carpenter of old. You don't just come back from major arm surgery and dominate.

[Thurston Fluff]

Just took a quick look at the home away splits of both Harden and Gauden. Both have benefited from playing in Oakland. Harden was pretty good all around but Gauden gives up his fair share of hits on the road. He doesn't walk many but he gives up more than a hit/inning for a .296 BAA away from Oakland.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Any pitcher's numbers are going to suffer when they're not consistently pitching in Oakland - the Coliseum has way more foul territory than any other stadium, so a ton of those foul balls that make their way 5 rows into the stands at Wrigley, or Miller Park, or most anywhere else get turned into outs.

 

Harden has the stuff to overcome that, but pitchers who pitch to contact like Gaudin are going to suffer a bit.

[homer]

Harden has an advantage playing at home but he Ks enough guys that it probably isn't as big a deal as it would be to other pitchers.

[Thurston Fluff]

Harden has the stuff to overcome that, but pitchers who pitch to contact like Gaudin are going to suffer a bit.

 

My thought exactly. If Harden does get hurt the backup plan was to insert Gauden but he's not likely to put up as good of numbers as he did pitching in Oakland. All in all they gambled their depth on Harden staying healthy enough to help them more than Gallagher would have. For a team that relies more on press than winning for their revenue it's not a bad gamble financially. Competitively speaking I think the risk is more than reward is worth.

[RedFlash2]

First: The A's doctor, trained the Cubs current orthopod, Dr. Yokum, and are said to be friends. So, if Yokum signed off the deal, then I believe Harden will have a good chance at remaining healthy. now obviously, the Cubs will have to be careful, but seeing as for the first time since I believe 2005, he has made 13 straight starts, I think Harden is showing he can remain healthy. He is always going to have the injury concerns, just like Sheets, but I am 95% sure Harden will be healthy for the stretch run.

 

Second: For those who think Beane traded Harden with a 1.5 yrs remaining is a "red-flag" situation, don't. It's bad business if one team trades a damaged player to the other team, without informing the second team. Plus the fact that Cubs spent more time going over Harden's medical records, then the Cards with Mulder, leads me to believe, the Cubs are going to be careful with Harden. I firmly believe, Harden will be on a 6IP or 95-100 PC for the Cubs.

 

Third: The Cubs did NOT clear out their "top prospects" for Harden. Patterson was made available, due to Mike Fontenot, and Tony Thomas (High A ball 2b). Matt Murton was made available by Felix Pie (he will be a good major leaguer) and Tyler Colvin. Josh Donaldson---while talented---was made available by Wellington Castillo and Geovany Soto behind the plate, and Josh Vitters at 3rd. The Cubs gave up some good young players, just not their best prospects.

 

Fourth: The Cubs are rumored, to have been in contact with Seattle about Erik Bedard (even AFTER acquiring Harden). Now I know Bedard is on the DL till the 21st, but the Cubs are still interested in bedard. And the feeling amongst Cubs fans, is that they believe the Cubs COULD acquire another starter to replace Jason Marquis.

 

I'm not here to gloat, taunt, etc, etc. I'm here to give you one Cub fan POV. I like what Milwaukee did with CC Sabathia, I think Milwaukee soldified a postseason spot with that acquisition. But we both have a common enemy, and that is St. Louis. It's going to be an interesting 3 weeks to the deadline, and in the 2nd half, to say the least.

[RedFlash2]

Harden has the stuff to overcome that, but pitchers who pitch to contact like Gaudin are going to suffer a bit.

 

My thought exactly. If Harden does get hurt the backup plan was to insert Gauden but he's not likely to put up as good of numbers as he did pitching in Oakland. All in all they gambled their depth on Harden staying healthy enough to help them more than Gallagher would have. For a team that relies more on press than winning for their revenue it's not a bad gamble financially. Competitively speaking I think the risk is more than reward is worth.

And if it was a team like Tampa, or another low-revenus team, I would agree the risk would not be worth the reward. But the Cubs can survine, if Harden goes down with an injury. The Cubs still have good trading chips to make another trade, if need be. So, for the Cubs, this move is worth the risk, but for a team like Tampa or KC, or even Milwaukee, who have to be smart with their money, the risk isn't worth it.

 

But risks are part of the game. If you are afraid to take the risks, you'll never win. And Hendry is definately a risk-taker, and something tells me, Harden is going to be remarkably healthy for the 2nd half.

[SeriesFinale]

and something tells me, Harden is going to be remarkably healthy for the 2nd half.

What? A "vibe"? Harden's history, past and recent, says otherwise.

 

 

[berniebrewer4life]

Matt Murton was made available by Felix Pie (he will be a good major leaguer)

So Felix Pie hitting .219 in AAA made Murton available? I don't think so. Pie is starting to look more and more like a big bust. The guy seems to be a AAAA/bench guy for his career.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm not here to gloat, taunt, etc, etc. I'm here to give you one Cub fan POV. I like what Milwaukee did with CC Sabathia, I think Milwaukee soldified a postseason spot with that acquisition. But we both have a common enemy, and that is St. Louis. It's going to be an interesting 3 weeks to the deadline, and in the 2nd half, to say the least.

 

Thanks for sharing the perspective & info. It's hard to get a good feel for other teams' situations & perceptions when all we can do is lurk at a site like NSBB. Interesting to hear that the Cubs plan on skipping some of Harden's starts -- wise on their end, but that certainly doesn't jive with your 'I think he's going to be healthy' hunch. With the start-skipping in mind, I think it makes the pickup of Harden that much less impactful, and perhaps an indication of why the Cubs seemingly 'stole' Harden & Gaudin.

[Fear The Chorizo]

First: If the A's and Cubs doctors are friends, wouldn't it be customary for one to be willing to send the other more work? Only sort of kidding - I respect that Harden has made 13 straight starts, but when the GM that just traded for the guy is openly talking about giving him offdays and acknowledging how much of an injury risk the guy is, it seems to be more of a preemptive PR move for when (not if) Harden has to spend time on the shelf.

 

Second: Beane tends to trade pitching away when its value is at its highest - I'm not considering the trade as a firesale at all. In fact, Beane probably makes the deal because he doesn't want to rely on a high risk/high reward pitcher to anchor the rotation and postseason aspirations. It doesn't make the A's markedly worse or better, but the trade does give them some roster flexibility, and gives them a second baseman to replace Ellis next season (or after the trade deadline)

 

Third: Depends on who is defining the Cubs' top prospects. Seems to me like many of the hyped prospects in the Cub organization haven't amounted to much, and the 'minor' prospects that were traded away in deals end up being the solid ML players.

 

Fourth: Bedard to the Cubs isn't going to happen, because I would imagine that Seattle would want Marmol as the start of any package for him - that is if they're truly serious about getting equal value to what they gave up to acquire him in the first place. The Mariners have about 8 other players they want to trade away before even dealing with moving Bedard, anyways. There are also about 15 other teams to have been rumored to have inquired about Bedard - many of which will be much more desparate to trade for a starting pitcher.

 

I still think the big loser is the Cards in all of this, but they've proven resilient and good enough to stay close through 90 games already this season. With the NL as weak as it is, it will probably come down to head-to-head matchups between the 3 teams as to who gets two playoff spots (Cubs being an odds-on favorite for one of them).

[TooLiveBrew]

I came across the following comment on another message board, in a discussion of the Harden deal:

 

 

"White Sox fan here...

 

We just faced Harden a few days ago on Sunday at the Cell and his velocity was way down. His fastball wasn't its usual 95-96 and was more like 90-92. Harden also didn't throw much breaking stuff either, suggesting that he's nursing his shoulder, elbow, or both. He was pretty much reduced to being a two-pitch pitcher.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he spends most of the rest of the season on the DL. The Cubbies could be headed for Kerry Wood part II."

 

 

Now, take it for what it's worth, but that's more 'first-hand' knowledge or 'witness account' than I've seen posted in this thread. I haven't seen Harden pitch at all this season, so I found this -- at least -- interesting.

[Bruce Ciskie]

If Harden's nursing a problem, then why did the Cubs trade for him?

 

As much as I hate the Cubs, I do respect Jim Hendry. He's not an idiot.

[splitterpfj]

Several sources have reported a drop in velocity for Harden, and a bit less command, over his last two starts. I'm not trying to suggest an injury, but the velocity absolutely was down about 5 MPH over the last two starts.

[chuckiehacks]

I know Russ has posted diagrams of the velocity on Sheets' pitches over the course of a start. Can we get the same data for Harden for his last start vs. one earlier in the season?

[snyttri]

The Cubs would be better if Hendry had looked at Prior and Wood like Beane is looking at Harden. He might be burned again.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I know Russ has posted diagrams of the velocity on Sheets' pitches over the course of a start. Can we get the same data for Harden for his last start vs. one earlier in the season?

It's late and I'm a little drunk, so I think that might be a bridge too far for me right now, but Fangraphs has average fastball velocity data for the season, and that's easy enough.

 

For the whole season, Harden is averaging 92.6 mph.

 

Last 14 days: 92.4 mph

 

Last 7 days: 91.6 mph

 

So there's some dropoff, but according to Fangraphs it's nothing like 5 mph; in fact it doesn't look like it's enough to be a significant concern.

 

That doesn't mean he won't turn out to already be too injured to make more than a couple semi-effective starts before they have to DL him. Or, he could hold up the whole season. I guess I'm saying you're better off trying to figure that out with Tarot cards or a Ouija Board than the Fangraphs data. Maybe Pitchf/x sees it differently.

[naivin]

For the whole season, Harden is averaging 92.6 mph.

 

Last 14 days: 92.4 mph

 

Last 7 days: 91.6 mph

 

So there's some dropoff, but according to Fangraphs it's nothing like 5 mph; in fact it doesn't look like it's enough to be a significant concern.

Well I suppose it depends on what makes up that 91.6. If that consists of 2 starts and one was 93 and one was 89, that would be a pretty big deal. I don't no that is is or is not the case, but most of the comments refer only to his last start.

[Oldcity]

From today's JS: "Chicago followed the Brewers' acquisition of Sabathia by trading for Oakland ace Dan Haren but Yost said he gave no thought to that tit-for-tat."

 

Harden AND Haren? The Brewers are screwed.

[cubfan1126]

Speculation based on some facts and some conjecture.

 

Those of us with money in the stock market know that, "Past results are no guarantee of future performance." (in either direction)

 

Why don't we wait until his first start on Saturday?

[naivin]

Why don't we wait until his first start on Saturday?

Go ahead and do that. In the meantime, I and I assume a few others will probably continue to speculate...kinda what the boards are all about.