Cubs acquire Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Gallagher, Patterson, Murton and Donaldson

[SeriesFinale]

I've always liked Murton...glad to see him out of Cubbie blue at the least. Should be interesting to see how he responds to more playing time; I'm a little surprised they're starting him at their AAA Sacramento club

 

Similarly, I would love nothing more than to see Gallagher develop into the solid #2 he could possibly become, for years and years, while Harden's health returns to form and the Cubs squeeze 75 innings out of him....through 2009.

 

Lastly, I'm interested to see how this will affect the CC and Sheets free agency sweepstakes. I'd assumed that the Cubs would be big players for them, especially CC, but now I'm not entirely sure they'd sink that much money into either with Zambrano/Harden/Lilly/Hill and even Dempster,Marshall and Gaudin there (and even taking into account the relatively small $9 million they'll pay Harden next year, presumably).

[Glennron]

The Brewers/Cubs NLCS match up continues to loom. If that occurs, it is guaranteed to be either the best or worst week of my life, and nothing in between.

I'd take a loss in the NLCS to the Cubs over not making the playoffs any day of the week.

 

I think some of you are exaggerating the deal the Cubs got simply cause we don't like the Cubs. Gallagher may very well turn into a solid middle of the rotation guy. He's only 22 and has been very good in the minor leagues. Murton could certainly help out a team at the big league level as well. It's obviously big that Harden is signed for next year at all but I'd be pretty surprised if he throws more than 200 IP the rest of this year and next combined.

[Fear The Chorizo]

since all the talking heads appear to have a similar take on the trade, they're probably wrong, but...

 

in reading alot of the articles/blogs out there breaking down the trade, nobody's claiming the haul of players Oakland received is outstanding, but they're not necessarily calling it garbage, either. alot of baseball people also seem to think that Harden may be on the verge of breaking down again - 2 starts ago, his fastball went from 94 down to below 90 by his 60th pitch. Harden's last start yielded slightly better velocity but horrible command, he needed around 100 pitches to get through 5 innings.

 

The sentiment seems to be that while Beane didn't get a huge haul of prospects, he may have made the trade because he was worried that Harden wouldn't give better value to the A's on the mound or in a future trade due to his health issues than what the Cubs were offering.

[pmg4]

I disagree with those who are saying that Harden and Sabbathia are equivalent pitchers. If Harden were the same or better, and cheaper, Doug would have gotten him. I believe this.

 

DM knows what he is doing. He got the best. Not a comparable guy. The best.

 

This is the Brewers' year. They will overtake the Cubs and go to the NLCS.

 

Another consideration is the financial aspect. I have not yet read how much Harden is costing the Cubs this year, but I know he'll cost $9m next year. Mark A has already said that the Crew is near their limit. Do we really want a probably-injured pitcher as our ace next year for $9m? Some have implied that this is small potatoes, but it is not, at least in MKE.

[Ennder]

Dayn Perry's take. For what it's worth.

 

He thinks the Crew solidified their position to take the WC and the Cubs are in the driver's seat for the Division. He does think the Cubs are taking a risk relying on Harden's health and more Marquis starts, however.

 

That said, with Cedeno, Pie and Vitters still out there (I don't know who in this thread said the Cubs gave away all their top prospects...not the case), I wouldn't be shocked to see them take a stab at Maddux, Wolf or Burnett.

 

At this point it is hard to call Pie and Cedeno top prospects as they have done nothing but fail at the major league level. That isn't to say they can't regain the tag but I think the best players in that system are now gone.

 

Personally I'd rather start Gallagher this year than Gaudin so assuming those two are equal we get Harden for Murton/Patterson/Donaldson. This is obviously a big bonus for the Cubs for this year and next year assuming Harden can stay healthy but long term I think it does hurt their team quite a bit. The Cubs have a smaller window than the Brewers right now as they are reliant almost completely on free agency to stay strong in 2010 and beyond imo.

 

The larger payroll obviously makes this less of a big deal but their payroll isn't leaps and bounds ahead of ours anymore. It is larger but they can't afford to just throw away money like in the past.

[berniebrewer4life]

Ennder wrote:

At this point it is hard to call Pie and Cedeno top prospects as they have done nothing but fail at the major league level. That isn't to say they can't regain the tag but I think the best players in that system are now gone.

Yea, Pie's a bust. The guy has a .667 OPS in AAA. His batting avg is weeks like, and he has no power what so ever. the guy is pretty much a bust IMO.

[squambaum]

This is the first I heard of the trade (just got home from work) and my impression is that this a good move for the Cubbies because the risk factor is so low. They had the division more or less won already even with the CC trade. But they'd be stupid to actually pitch Harden in July and August. They're only going to burn out his shoulder, and if they don't have Harden for the post-season, they will not break their curse.

 

The Crew on the other hand did over pay, but they overpaid for a workhorse. CC is gonna take the ball every time and he's gonna burn lots of innings. In the post-season the Brewers will be appreciably better than the Cubs.

You think the cubs already have the division wrapped up or am I just misunderstanding you?

I think this is a good trade for the Cubbies so long as Harden is healthy in October because I see them making the playoffs and that's when he will really matter. Seems like they now have no near ready MLB talent which I'm hoping comes back to bite them at some point. I'd heard that with the Tribune company trying to sell them they were going to try and keep payroll reasonable (for Chicago) so the lack of cheap young talent could really hurt them in the near future. But like the Brewers they saw a window and are going for it and there isn't really much else out there they could trade for that is capable of the impact that Harden is.

Hendry saying this trade isn't a response to Sabathia is just plain silly. I'm sure he knows about Harden's recent velocity problems and limited innings and it would have been much more prudent to wait and see if Harden stayed healthy in Oakland till a little closer to the deadline, unless another team was ready to take him off Beane's hands in the immediate future. Did he really need Harden for one start before the break against the Reds? I doubt it.

[splitterpfj]

I applaud the Cubs for making this move, and I'm glad it was them, vs St Louis, or one of the other wildcard contenders.

 

I assume the Cubs will make the playoffs, one way or the other, I'll be much more concerned if St Louis, Florida, or the Mets make a big move.

 

Harden is a big-time risk, I think we'd all be surprised if he stayed healthy, but he sure is a talent! Good for the Cubs, and good for their fans, this is supposed to be fun like this!

 

Go Brewers! Doug, it's your serve.

[danzig6767]

since all the talking heads appear to have a similar take on the trade, they're probably wrong, but...

 

in reading alot of the articles/blogs out there breaking down the trade, nobody's claiming the haul of players Oakland received is outstanding, but they're not necessarily calling it garbage, either. alot of baseball people also seem to think that Harden may be on the verge of breaking down again - 2 starts ago, his fastball went from 94 down to below 90 by his 60th pitch. Harden's last start yielded slightly better velocity but horrible command, he needed around 100 pitches to get through 5 innings.

 

The sentiment seems to be that while Beane didn't get a huge haul of prospects, he may have made the trade because he was worried that Harden wouldn't give better value to the A's on the mound or in a future trade due to his health issues than what the Cubs were offering.

Fear of Harden getting hurt again in the next few weeks is the only thing that makes sense about this trade to me. Oakland is 8 games over .500 and while the odds were pretty strongly against them getting a playoff berth, it's not like they were under .500 and buried. They could have seen where they were at in late July and if the A's didn't pick up more ground, Harden would still have plenty of value given the many teams still with a playoff shot. It's not so much odd to me that Harden ended up being traded, more so that he was traded this soon along with a solid pitcher in Gaudin, for not exactly a bounty of great young talent.

That fear of Harden breaking down very soon had to be the huge factor in Beane doing this exact deal right now because not a lot else makes a ton of sense about it. Then again with Gallagher, when it comes to evaluating pitching, it's hard to question Beane much. Many people like to heap praise on Beane for things like OBP love or him finding a skill being undervalued at the time in the market, but IMO, far and away his biggest reason for success with Oakland has been his great eye for pitching. In so many of his years with the A's, Beane either through the draft, trades, or scrap heap free agents, he puts together staffs that are productive and many times, very productive. Yea that big park helps a pitching staffs numbers, but overall, Beane just has an eye for quality pitching even though he has to find inexpensive pitching.

 

[SeriesFinale]

Ennder wrote:

At this point it is hard to call Pie and Cedeno top prospects as they have done nothing but fail at the major league level. That isn't to say they can't regain the tag but I think the best players in that system are now gone.

Yea, Pie's a bust. The guy has a .667 OPS in AAA. His batting avg is weeks like, and he has no power what so ever. the guy is pretty much a bust IMO.

I didn't mean "top prospect" in that sense...regardless, he's got to be one of their bigger chips still in their system. Sad but true.

And I agree Danzig: something is rotten in (Har)Denmark about this one and I think Cubs fans would be questioning the timing of this one more than they are right now, because it otherwise indeed makes no sense. Gallagher and the rest of the haul may indeed be much better than they're being given credit for, but I'd bet this same offer still would've been on the table in three weeks. Unless, of course, Harden was on the DL by then. You think Beane hasn't seen the signs of Harden breaking down before?

[naivin]

That said, Beane's record as a talent evaluator speaks for itself (esp. over Hendry, who has a lot more money to play with)...I'll wait and see on this one.

 

That is my attitude as well. On the surface Beane got taken, and this certainly lets a little air out of my balloon, but Billy Beane does not generally get taken. As a GM, when you pick up the phone and he's on the other end, you should generally hang up. We'll have to see what happens.

[strawbossisevil]

I think the biggest difference between the two is that in the past two seasons Harden has 72 innings pitched (and only 25 last year). He has already topped that number this year. Now this brings into question how much stamina he'll have, since he hasn't approached 100 IP since 2005 (120 IP).

 

Add to that, that he's been complaining about a "dead arm" already this season, and that the speed of his pitches have dipped, and you have to wonder if he even has the stamina to finish the season, much less be a significant contributer over the course of the playoffs. Let's say they ask him to go 6 innings for another 13 or so starts this season. That would put him over 150 IP on the season (a number he's only reached once in his career - 2004).

 

I can see why this guy could potentially be a solid pick up for the Cubs over the course of much of the regular season. But I really question whether Harden will be able to have the stamina to pitch effectively all the way through the playoffs.

 

Compare this to C.C. who has topped 190 the past three years, and who has never had less than 180 IP in a season in his career, and at the very least, you know that he has the stamina to make it through a playoff chase. That right there is what makes C.C. much more valuable than Harden.

[naivin]

It has never dawned on me until this moment that Rich Harden's name could be modified slightly to refer to some sort of topical ointment you might find in the back of a magazine for $19.99. Should finally provide the Wrigley Field 20-somethings with some upgrade material to the 'We Got Wood' T-shirts.

[naivin]

This trade is obviously about winning in the playoffs, not necessarily getting there for the Cubs. I think most would a gree, a lot has to go wrong for them not to make it there. That said, the Cubs still have some potential land mines ahead of them where there rotation is concerned. Harden, Dempster, and Marquis have to all be considered potential question marks in the second half. Harden obviously with the history of injury. Dempster has obviously been a starter, but has not pitched anywhere near this many innings since 2002. We all know how Marquis generally performs in the second half. There is probably a borrowed time comment relative to Kerry Wood that could be made here as well.

 

A three man rotation of Zambrano, Harden, and Lilly makes them awfully tough in October though.

[Bluechip]

Despite Harden's very good stats, it should be noted that he is averaging only 5.9 innings per start this season. Sabathia is averaging 6.8 innings per start.

 

When taking into account Harden's low innings per start, his high number of innings pitched compared to the last two seasons, his statement saying he has dead arm, and Billy Beane's track record, there seems to be a lot of red flags.

[naivin]

Now this I like to hear (From Buster Olney), and makes me feel much better about this deal...

 

Cubs general manager Jim Hendry checked in from time to time throughout June with Oakland general manager Billy Beane about the availability of Rich Harden, and their conversations traveled down the same path: Yes, Harden was available, but only at the right price, and that price would include right-handed pitcher Sean Gallagher. And Hendry indicated, repeatedly, that Gallagher wasn't available. On Sunday evening -- the same night when word broke that the Brewers had worked out a deal for CC Sabathia -- Hendry indicated to Beane for the first time that he would make Gallagher available in a Harden deal...

 

Harden to Cubs

 

If you can force another GM into doing something he didn't want to do, I don't care how good their deal looks, that's a good thing.

[FVBrewerFan]

I guess I'm in the minority, but I think the Cubs made the better trade and gave up less. The Cubs, Brewers, and Cards are all RH dominant line-ups, and I think that point has been glossed over. Harden is an injury risk, but a better option IF he is healthy in October. They can afford to have him miss starts July-Sept.

[igor67]

I'm still rather underwhelmed by what the Cubs had to give up, however based on Beane's track record and the clear health flags, I'm kind of moving into the camp where he might have actually gotten a very good deal. I think comparing Gallagher as a prospect to something between Villy and Parra is fairly accurate. Add in Murton and I can see where it's possible to get comparable production that you might see from a semi-healthy Harden.

 

I'm actually more happy about the Cubs doing the deal. They don't have a lot of bullets in the trade gun to stay young and they burned two of their better ones. As other have pointed out looking at what their other top prospects have done this year, it's almost the exact opposite of what the Brewers minor leaguers did. Now some of that both ways might be a little flukish, but this deal puts the Cubs closer to a Yankee style decline sooner. And to make matters worse for the Cubs I think this deal may actually have worsened their chances of winning the division this year (playoff chances probably not so much). Basically they have a greater overall injury risk to the rotation and they have worse depth to fill it with than they did before the deal. On balance if Harden goes down it's pretty much a wash of what they had before the deal. They have a much higher risk though of losing two guys to injury, which could really put them in a bad spot.

[MillerParkSouth]

I really think everyone here is underestimating Gallagher. I've seen him pitch several times, he has a chance to be very, very good. As it stands now, if Harden goes down, they've lost some depth there. Like many people have mentioned, dealing with Billy Beane is risky business, so I don't think we'll really know who 'won' the trade for a couple of months.

[Tbadder]

I'll say it again. if the Cubs pitch this guy all of July and August he won't be there for the playoffs, and the Cubbies curse will remain firmly in tact. I'm not afraid of this trade at all. I'm afraid of the LaRussa magic. It's the Cards my friends--they're the ones who have made a pact with the devil. Isn't Wainwright and Carpenter coming back soon. If their rotation becomes a best case scenario we maybe doomed.

[decktard]

You people who are saying Melvin got fleeced and the Cubs got a great deal need to give it a rest.

 

This is a RISKY deal for the Cubs.

 

Harden has only pitched 25 innings last year, 46 the year before, and 128 in '05. There are already reports of decreased velocity and he has complained of feeling a dead arm. He has not had freak injuries like Sheets; Harden has had continual shoulder/arm/back issues. He has already been on the DL once this year with guess what... a shoulder muscle strain. Even if his arm does hold up... will he get tired from his lack of pitching the last few years?

 

All that said... Harden is VERY good. His potential is probably better than Sheets, CC, and Big Z. I like the trade for the Cubs, mainly because I love Rich Harden. But don't forget... it is a ballsy move; Harden comes with a lot of risk.

[MessiahRp]

It has never dawned on me until this moment that Rich Harden's name could be modified slightly to refer to some sort of topical ointment you might find in the back of a magazine for $19.99. Should finally provide the Wrigley Field 20-somethings with some upgrade material to the 'We Got Wood' T-shirts.

 

LOL. Harden. Apply directly to the Disabled List. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Rp

[cwolf2012]

If Oakland didn't give up Gaudin, Beane absolutely stole the trade. With Gaudin involved, it's quite a bit closer. Gaudin is a 25 year old pitcher with a 4.31 ERA, and will definitely fit well as the #5 starter with the Cubs. I didn't realize until I did some research for this post, but Gaudin has had his best results at relief with spot starts. I think Beane sold very high on him and his 3.59 ERA this year. I think the 4.42 he put up last year is a much better indicator of his value.

 

Gallagher has #1 or #2 potential. He could easily be the #2 starter in Oakland next year.

 

Harden stays healthy and effective for 66-75% of his starts over the next year and a half, this trade is even to maybe a slight edge to the Cubs. Anything less than that (very likely) and Oakland did well.

 

EDIT: I was using an outdated site for stats. Gaudin is actually a 3.59 ERA this year.

[yount19.u]

I agree with those who said they are glad Harden went to the Cubs and not the Cardinals. The Cubs are making the playoffs regardless, so this actually may help the Brewers by taking a potential playoff piece away from the Cardinals. With that being said, I don't think the Cubs got a steal due to the high risk of injury with Harden. There is a good chance he may not even be healthy enough to pitch come playoff time, and Beane is not known for getting fleeced in trades. Hopefully we will all be laughing at the Cubs' ineptitude come fall.

[Oldcity]

I definitely agree that it's better he went to the Cubs over the Cards, Mets, Marlins etc.

 

I also don't think the A's are giving up on the season at all. They might consider Gallagher a better bet than Harden for the rest of this season anyway because of the durability thing. Obviously, if Harden stays healthy, it's a great move for the Cubs though.